No Ness: Elvis & The Myth Of The Untouchables
"You know the difference between you and me? I make this look GOOD."In the aftermath of the Zack Greinke trade, opinions seem to have converged: the Rangers had the minor-league talent to trump the Brewers’ package, but couldn’t offer what Kansas City GM Dayton Moore was insistent on acquiring – namely, MLB-ready, up-the-middle talent.
The antecedent to that verdict is, presumably, that the Rangers were simply not going to make Elvis Andrus available as part of a deal for Greinke. That’s a perfectly reasonable assumption to make, of course. Over the last two seasons, the 22-year old shortstop has electrified Rangers fandom with his smooth glovework, his daring baserunning, and his megawatt smile.
Throw in the fact that there are, at the moment, no obvious available replacements for Andrus, and it is indeed difficult to see how dealing a minimum of four years of Andrus for a minimum two years of Greinke makes sense for Texas – especially if Andrus was only one piece of an equivalent package that would also have included players like Julio Borbon, Tanner Scheppers, and, say, Robbie Erlin (as suggested by Baseball America’s Ben Badler).
For most Rangers fans – maybe for all Rangers fans – the idea that Texas would part with that sort of package for two years of Greinke* elicits an immediate feeling of fear and loathing. But should it?
*Perhaps the Rangers could’ve pulled back a prospect in place of Yuniesky Betancourt cash. Given that Betancourt’s likely to be worth no more than the $3 million Milwaukee will have to pay him this season, though, it’s almost as if the Brewers did the Royals a favor by taking him.
Over the last three years, Greinke has been very, very good (all stats from FanGraphs):
* Johnson threw only 87.1 IP over 14 starts in 2008.
Greinke’s 2009 certainly sticks out; it’s unlikely he or anyone else will achieve a 9.4 WAR season in the next couple years. Randy Johnson was the last pitcher to break 9 WAR – he posted a 9.9 in 2004, a 10.0 in 2001, and a 9.7 in 2000. Curt Schilling totaled 9.7 WAR in 2002; Pedro Martinez racked up 10.1 in 2000. That’s all for the aughts.
In fact, even 8+WAR seasons are rare: in addition to those in the paragraph above and the table above that, the list comprises Johnson and Schilling (2002), Halladay (2003), and Ben Sheets (2004).
As good as this all makes Greinke look, though, and as good as he’s projected to be in the future, from the Rangers’ side of the ledger, the package Badler mooted still seems ridiculously overpriced. Trades are now frequently judged by the value of one WAR, or its future equivalent in terms of prospects (discounted over time, of course). There are more and less complicated ways to do this, all of them predicated on work that Victor Wang has pioneered; fortunately, other folks have already done some work on the Greinke deal, so I can skip to the good part.
Projecting Greinke for a total of 12 WAR for 2011 and 2012, and including an assumption of Type-A draft picks upon his departure in free agency, that’d make him worth about $36.5 million over and above the $27 million he’ll be paid over the next two seasons. A big “but”: that $36.5 million doesn’t reflect the value of marginal wins to a team like Texas, which will almost certainly enter 2011 favored to win the still-weak AL West. Given the estimated $30-40 million revenue stream associated with post-season success, $36.5 million probably underestimates Greinke’s expected value to the Rangers over the next two years; $40-45 million may be closer to the mark.
On the other side, we don’t know exactly how much Tanner Scheppers or Robbie Erlin will be worth via Wang, because the Baseball America prospect rankings for 2011 aren’t out yet. John Sickels, however, has provided his preliminary grades for 2011: he scored Scheppers a B and gave a B+ to Erlin. Extrapolating a bit, that pair is likely Wang-valued at $18-20 million.
There’s a reasonable case to be made that Julio Borbon is worth something in the range of $22-25 million surplus to the Rangers over the next 5 seasons. Before even considering Andrus’ value, that’s $40-45 million – a pretty stark reflection of why, in the weeks leading up to the Greinke deal, the Royals were said to be “asking for the moon” in return for their ace.
It’s interesting to work the other way around, though – that is, beginning with what Andrus would be worth as the anchor of a deal. If, in general agreement with BBTiA’s own Joey Matches and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, we pencil Andrus in for 14-15 WAR over the next four years, then (depending on how salary negotiations and/or arbitration hearings work out) a surplus value of $45-50 million over that period seems reasonable. There’s no way that’s getting pushed on top of a package already worth $40-45 million; to justify that sort of deal, the Rangers would need to expect Greinke to channel the 1963 Sandy Koufax – twice.
But what if – and, obviously, this is purely a thought experiment what-if – the Royals had been willing to deal Greinke for Andrus straight up in early December – before shortstops J.J. Hardy and Jason Bartlett were traded for prices the Rangers would have had little trouble matching?
This is where it gets more interesting, because many Rangers fans view Andrus as well-nigh untouchable. Their argument, at least as I’ve followed it, is that Andrus has a reasonable chance of being an elite shortstop in the next several years – or, put another way, that it’s not unreasonable to expect Andrus to reach the heights at which Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki are currently playing. Those sorts of expectations would, arguably, put Andrus in the 18-20 WAR range over the next 4 years, with a surplus value of $65-75 million. Given that projection, then even a one-for-one involving Andrus and Greinke makes little sense for the Rangers.
But this is the point at which the ghost of Kevin Goldstein starts cackling. About a year ago, Goldstein sat down with Jason Parks for a Q&A here at BBTiA. This is the next-to-last exchange of their conversation:
El Magico: Why do you hate Elvis Andrus so much? Seriously, what do you have to say to Rangers fans that think Elvis was robbed for the Rookie of the Year Award, or that he could still turn into a Hanley Ramirez-esque hitter? Let them have it.
Goldstein: Elvis Andrus didn't have a good year last year. He barely put up a .700 OPS last year. If you still think he's going to be good, that's one thing. If you think he was good last year, especially at the plate, he wasn't. Anyone who thinks Elvis is going to be a Hanley Ramirez type is in serious need of psychological counseling. Seriously? That's a joke. Look, he's going to be a plus to plus-plus defender and hit .290 to .300; that's a helluva player. That's a helluva player. He's not Hanley Ramirez or anything close. Please.
There was much vehement disagreement with Goldstein, most of which fell into two camps: first, Andrus wasn’t as bad at the plate as Goldstein suggested; second, Goldstein was tilting at scarecrows, as nobody had compared Andrus to Ramirez.
There’s a lot to be said about the first point, and a lot of it has been said – so we won’t revisit it here. And it’s probably true that nobody’s predicted Andrus could become a Ramirez-esque hitter. But there have been suggestions that Andrus could match Ramirez’s (and/or Tulowitzki’s) total production. The question is, why – or, equally, how?
Most of the answers seem to rely on Andrus significantly improving his patience and power as he ages. Without taking anything away from the 22-year old’s accomplishments, it’s hard to see the support for this line of reasoning. Andrus should certainly improve on his .036 isolated power (ISO, which is calculated by subtracting slugging percentage, or SLG, from batting average) – it was, after all, the lowest of 149 qualifying batters.
That said, there’s not much reason to believe that Andrus will average better than his .106 mark from 2009, let alone approach the .145 league mean. Without that power, or a marked improvement in his plate discipline, it’s difficult to imagine Andrus consistently drawing walks at a higher clip than he did last season.
That’s not a criticism, per se: after all, Andrus’ 2010 9.5 BB% was a full point above league average. And the ZIPS projection of .269/.344/.338 (that’s batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage; the Bill James projection listed at FanGraphs is similar, at .274/.344/.332) would be nothing to sniff at. (Those would be ISOs of .069 and .058, respectively.) Depending on Andrus’ defense and the league context, that’d probably be good for 2.5-3.5 WAR.
And it’s certainly not out of the question that by 2014, Andrus is capable of producing the .289/.349/.409 line (.120 ISO) that Baseball Prospectus anticipated in last year’s projections. That could very well put Andrus into the 4-5 WAR range.
That’s a helluva player. But it’s not an untouchable player. PR aside, and with a Bartlett or Hardy available as a replacement? That’s the sort of player that a club like the Rangers trades for a Zack Greinke, straight up, if someone’s crazy enough to make the offer.
Analysis, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (41)
In regards to Elvis: Its time to buy out his Arb years(I know hes still one year away) and a year or two of his free agency and build around him. I haven't seen any info that his agent is Scott Boras so it can be done.
I completely disagree with this article. You have the stat page and you have the eye test - Elvis is a leader, great defensive player and is getting better on the Offensive side (see what his line was @ the All-star break). Will is going to be the BEST defensive Shortstop in the league over the next 4-5 years, a very good leadoff hitter w/SB speed and again a LEADER for a WINNER. The last point is as important as anything. You don't find someone that young be described like that. It is a trait that can't be valued with stats or overlooked. I do think he is untouchable, at least for the next 4-5 years.
To Fender - his agent IS Scott Boras. Try googling "Elvis Andrus Scott Boras" sometime. There aren't thousands of people out there just making it up.
You can buy out his arb years, but you aren't getting any free agent years extended. That's just not what Boras clients do.
Bill James Commandment # 5
"Thou shalt make no idol of the light-hitting middle infielder"
I agree with the gist of the article...but throwing that many numbers at the reader in one setting is never, listen closely....NEVER...a good thing to do.
You could also very easily dock 500+ words of this and still hit the finish line with a good article.
Scott Boras is his agent, IIRC.
Great article. I totally agree. I would have been willing to do Elvis and someone like Kirkman for Greinke. But if it was for a similar package I can understand why we basically said you're trying to rob us and get away If it was Andrus, Borbon and two good prospects I think we almost had to pass unless they were including something else useful on the back side. We saw what happened when a team gives up a Teixeira trade, and we should really not want to be on the giving end of one..
I guess my question is does the package that the Brewers gave up grade out better or worse then our package of Elvis, Borbon, Scheppers and Erlin. I'd personally think that Escobar is a downgrade from Elvis. The CF prospect is a downgrade from Borbon. And I don't know enough about the other two to comment, other then to say the major pot head has to have at least some impact.
If you buy out his ARB yrs then you must take his OPS an d divide it into one total WAR. For reference check out his slash composite for 2008. You must understand numbers have a way of becoming gibberish but RDG and Afh don't lie. At least I don't think they do. SLG and ISO from a relative standpoint compared to The Ballpark in Arlington don't show him to project as a MVP. Extrapolating ying from yang one easily can see his Cy Young chances are nil. On the other hand he would be left handed and left-handed shortstops are virtually non-existent because of their eccentric way of running the bases. This will be covered later as we show you uninformed minions how WAR and OPS and SLG/LMAO will transform Mendoza Line types into just what they are. However if baseball were played in the winter most would wear a sweater to the games. Extrapolating on this however suggests that obese persons in the OW range would just wear longsleeve flannel shirts. With isolated power as the sole parameter just look at the numbers Cruz put up against ambidextrous frenchmen on thursday afternoon day games. But as even you can figure out there were no such contests. So therefore we must make up a statistic for that. AFTADG must be extrapolated with a keen awareness that all of this is BS. But I pledge to you that I will spend every bit of time it takes to continue to come up with these meaningless columns to try and impress you and your nerdy friends.
I did google it up and nothing comes up. No reputable website or reporter has ever reported that Boras represents Elvis. If this is the case then we can lock him up.
MLB Trade Rumors has a list of Boras clients and Elvis is not listed.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/scott-boras-cli.html
Nice read. Good info.
How do you all think Borbon will be used this season? He played a great defense, getting to lots of balls that Hamilton could not reach in the playoffs. And he had one of the highest fielding percentages at his position. I'd start him and bat him 9th, and tell him to bunt every ball in the strike zone.
If Boras is his agent, his trade value as he nears free agency dwindles for the Rangers. I think guys like Adrian Beltre will eventually figure out no one wants to deal with Boras. He is single-handedly killing any chance of Beltre settling down with a team he really wants to play for (unless the Spankees are his dream team). Hopefully, Elvis will figure that out, also, before it is too late.
As much as I hate to say it, Elvis will be gone in a few years, so put him up for auction and see if you can find someone who will overpay. That just kills me to type, because I just love to watch him play baseball for the Texas Rangers. I agree, though, that you first need to have a very decent alternative available in a trade or free agency, so we're looking more at something going down after the 2001 season.
I would love to see a "grading the deal" wrapup on the Lee trade last year using Wang's model now that we know we're recieving Type A compensation and not any future years services from Lee.
BobbyinBryan
Glad to see that someone else wishes Borbon would bunt more. I think he should bunt for a basehit at least 1 time per game and also should have to do pushups just like Willy Mays Hays every time he hits the ball in the air. He has great speed, but doesn't utilize it. Causing the 3rd baseman to play in would only lead to even more hits for him and cause the defense to have to worry about him. He needs to embrace who he is, a slap hitter/ bunter/ speed guy. Quit trying to hit homeruns or even to hit balls in the gap. Leave that to the other guys in the lineup. Just get on base, cause the defense heartache with your speed, and help move runners over.
@Fender Tim Dierkes admits that the list you linked to is not all encompassing and there are omissions.
This is from a TR Sullivan blog post early last season, "Elvis Andrus is not only the Rangers best defensive player but also leading them in on-base percentage. Somewhere agent Scott Boras is smiling and counting the days."
If the Rangers traded Elvis the Metroplex would explode and it shouldn't. Elvis is an example of a player who passes the eye test, but doesn't do enough with the stick to merit his deification in some parts.
Josh,
Thanks for the thoughtful article and hard work. You are right that Elvis is probably never going to look like vintage HanRam at the plate. And many of us Ranger fans DO over-value him, me among them.
But I think that you are undervaluing his intangibles like leadership and marketability for the team. I don't know that you can put that into a WAR value, but I do know they exist.
Any trade involving Elvis has to take their value into account.
I love how guys are making these definitive pronouncements on what kind of player Elvis Andrus is and will be, when the guy is freaking 22 years old and has only played for 2 seasons. Give him a chance to keep working on all aspects of his game, and to develop physically.
Anyone who didn't see Elvis' value in the entire postseason wasn't watching. He got consistent hits (aside from the World Series, but he was not alone). His defense is always outstanding. And his base running really made pitchers like Price and Sabathia think. That's a huge reason why they didn't shut us down. So what if he doesn't have power. He makes up for it in many, many other ways (including leadership at age 22). By all accounts, this is his, Hamilton's, and MY's team. And you want to trade him for Greinke who has had 1 good season? Don't think so.
Great write-up, Josh. This is something I've mulled over for a long time.... specifically, how to weigh the loss of prospects when acquiring a player with surplus value, as opposed to losing draft picks and commiting huge money to a free agent. It's a fascinating topic, and one we look forward to discussing with you on Ranges Fan Radio when your schedule stops being thirty different kinds of crazy.
Yeah! The idea that Elvis is untouchable is silly nonsense. Everyone has a price.
Nice job fleshing out the nuances of the Elvis situation.
Elvis+Borbon+Erlin is something I felt at the time of the Greinke trade I could tolerate. That might have been giving up more value than Greinke was actually worth, but, then again, Moore had to be bowled over to trade within the AL.
I think this points out how out of touch Moore is with the concept of being bowled over. The Elvis+Borbon+Scheppers+Erlin idea (I think that's the rumored equivalent, well positionally equivalent) is actually a lot more value than the Brewers deal. If he wanted to an elite player (aka Elvis), he certainly wasn't going to get the number of players he did.
The other thing to consider is that the Rangers could be considering the possibility that the return of having BOTH Elvis and a player somewhat like Greinke is such a big payoff that the return on Greinke now would need to be much more like Johnson 2000-2001 to let go of the possibility of something-like-Greinke+Elvis by trading Elvis now.
Does that last part make sense?
Considering that KC was said to be looking for a "Mark Teixeira haul" in dealing Grienke, it seems pretty unrealistic that they would have been interested or accepting of a straight-up deal for Andrus. If correct (and I believe it is), that leaves us with the second scenario, which would entail dealing one or more of Perez, Scheppers, et al plus Borbon and possibly Andrus. You can slice and dice all the WAR's you want to, but that's a price that the Rangers simply couldn't afford to pay for just 2 years of Grienke.
The notion that Greinke has had "one good season" kills me. He's had 4 good or better seasons in a row and one of those was the best season any pitcher has had in nearly a decade.
Elvis is very good. But no one should be untouchable except young, cost controlled true aces. No one else. If I had Lincecum or Verlander or Josh Johnson, they would be untouchable. That's about it.
Part of me has started to think that the best comp for Elvis going forward, just for value not including position, is Figgins. Gets on base at a respectable clip, though right now it looks like Elvis will be a little lower in that then Figgins was. Hopefully, looking at Elvis as a near 300 hitter with about 10% walk rate. would put him at around .360 obp for a 660 pa season. That seems like enough value out of Elvis to make him a 3-4 WAR player at least, though I'll admit I'm not familiar with the math on converting raw stats into runs.
A better comp of who Elvis might turn out to be is Jimmy Rollins. He picked it up pretty good on offense at age 25, and his peak lasted until he was 30. Andrus is probably only a little better defensively at similar stages of their careers, while Rollins had more pop when he broke in at age 22. He then added significantly to his power output at age 27.
Our man Elvis is 4 inches taller than Rollins, and has 30 pounds on him, so why couldn't his offensive ceiling be something close to little Jimmy's? If Andrus came anywhere even close to Rollins' peak offensive numbers at, say, age 24 or 25, he would be in line for a Derek Jeter-type contract from the Yankees when Boras got finished with Cashman.
Dennis: I'm still trying to figure out in what sense of the Mark Teixeira deal that this deal compares.
The best tool in Moore's package is defense. So, it doesn't compare well there. He opted for ML-ready rather than minor league players with high upside. So, it doesn't compare well there. He got four players, so that's similar.
Rooster: It compares in body count. The Royals are/were trying to address multiple needs with young and affordable talent with upsides. Very much like the Teixeira deal. In fact, the media often used "Teixeira deal" to illustrate what the Royals were seeking in return for Grienke.
Andrus is already one of the better shortstops in the AL and is improving. However it is different when you talk about trading a position player for a pitcher because I think that pitching trumps every other position. Specifically, though, I think Greinke would have been too much of a gamble to give up Elvis for. But if the right pitcher was available, I think you would have to move Elvis, if that is what it took. As an example, Josh Johnson is the type of pitcher I am talking about - although the Marlins don't need a shortstop so that trade would never happen. But that is just an example to show that if the right pitcher is there, you'd have to be open to trading Elvis.
Andrus is being used wrong as a leadoff hitter. He's the ideal No. 2 hitter. Patient and unselfish with great bat control. Just one more area in which the existence of Mike Young and his ridiculous dead weight contract get in the way of what should be happening on this team. The sooner they jettison Young and get past the Mike Young era, the more flexibility they will have.
I would have been ok if the Rangers would have traded Andrus and Borbon plus one B level pitching prospect for Greinki as long as they would have signed Orlando Cabrera to be the stop gap for two years for Profar or Sardinas
Forget about Elvis playing for the Rangers, we are just a stopover for him.... all he ever wanted was to play for the Yankees... he has said it many times..
as soon as one of ours gets MLB ready, trade this sucker for all you can get..
I think that is why the Yanks signed Jeter, just waiting for Elvis...
I love Elivs, but if he willingly goes to the Yankees in 4 years, he would easily be one of the most hated Rangers ever (ARod caliber).
The SI jocks dont look for us to return...
Parity reigns. Of the eight teams to make the 2010 postseason, just two -- the Yankees and Phillies -- will return in 2011, as the Red Sox, White Sox, A's, Brewers, Rockies and Dodgers create a near-complete turnover of baseball's Elite Eight. Once again, more than half the game's teams are buyers or reported buyers at the trade deadline, and about that many head into September a hot streak from a playoff spot.
BUT I disagree, it will be the Rangers & the Phillies who return... NY fading fast.
The main question on the A's is still the same as it was last year. How will they score runs. You have to be able to score runs as well as prevent them. Oakland is great at the later and horrible at the former and got a little better but not a lot better at the former.
My bet right now for the playoff teams from the AL would be BoSox, NYY, Twins, Rangers. Right now I think the BoSox are the best team on paper in the AL. The Yankees have slid a bit but still should be the second best team probably, since I think TB and the Jays take a step back. The central is a pretty close dog pile I think but I'd stick with the Twins as having the best combo of hitting and pitching in there. Out in the west I still think we have the best team, though without another top pitcher it should be pretty close. Hopefully Holland takes a step forward this year.
I like the AL Central's chances of sending 2 to the playoffs this season. I like what the White Sox and Tigers have done.
On this one, at least, it's very hard to disagree with jdb.
I think jdb is blasted on opiates. He's also perma-banned for attacking/impersonating posters and repeatedly circumventing IP bans. Bye.
[Amazingly, he's the only person I've felt compelled to permaban up to this point in time, so don't ever accuse me of being overly strict.]
It had to be done Joey had to be done
The good teams keep the players that got them there, and you might even overpay them. The Yankees are doing it now with Jeter. Andrus can and should be our Jeter, I would like to think. No reason he can not still be playing here for the entirety of the decade. To me he puts a check mark in the "leadoff hitter", "plus defender", "charisma" boxes.
Why so many baseball fans will get bogged down with the statistical minutiae is beyond me. Of course every team would like a Tulowitski or Hanley Ramirez type offensive shortstop. But many many championship teams have fielded Andrus types as SS. Some comps that come to my mind Pee Wee Reese on the Dodgers, Vizquel on the 90s CLE teams, The '59 White Sox had Luis Aparicio whom I think is a very reasonable comp.
Baseball is not as simplistic as just getting the best WAR player at every position. IMHO.
I actually kinda liked jdb's post above, I must admit. I actually made me laugh in a couple of places.
Happy New Year everyone, especially the writers of this blog.
Billydpowell, I am curious when and where Elvis has said he wants to play for the Yankees? I have never heard or read where he said that so I only ask because if it is true I would lose respect for him.
As for jdb, the guy is obviously a lonely loser who comes to this website for no other reason than to bash people who enjoy discussing baseball. This post is the only post of his that has even addressed anything about baseball. Thanks to Joey and the rest of BBTIA for taking care of him. Everyone enjoys BBTIA more without him.
Thanks for your comments, folks, and sorry I wasn't able to post any responses sooner. Several quick hits:
@Dennis: I tried to make clear that a one-for-one deal involving Andrus and Greinke was a thought experiment, and nothing more; the idea was to weigh how that sort of deal might work out for the Rangers, from a value perspective, and to challenge the notion that Andrus should be untouchable in terms of talent. I think the piece speaks directly to your concerns about the cost of a hypothetical package including Andrus plus high-value prospects, and we're agreed on that point, at least.
@Fred: I don't see much evidence supporting your arguments about Andrus' offense from the leadoff spot (even considering his 2010 stats through the All-Star break) or his defense. As for his leadership: I think I've probably made my thoughts about the talent/leadership trade-off clear. In short, Andrus is a helluva player, but I don't think he's quite the player you're making him out to be.
@Rossi: Andrus definitely seemed to get into Shields' head in the ALDS, and he had a very good series against the Yankees. On the rest of it, we more or less disagree.
@jdb, BOBBI LOU, and/or whomever you'll post as next: Clever girl.
Andrus for Greinke in a straight swap would still have been tough to swallow.
Currently it feels we have a bit of group of players that we can actually lay claim to as "rangers" or "our players". They can start here and have success here. I would feel like we acted too soon to not let this group stick together a few years.
Andrus is 22 and good. He will get better. Wash has had to but some restrictions on him. Once Elvis sees the big picture he will start hitting more extra base hits and stealing more bases. He and Borbon are exciting on the bases together. Borbon had a good year and will get better as he learns some of the things one needs to know. I like both at .275 to .280 BAs. Both still do some seemingly dumb things but that is youth at work. Just let'm percolate for a year or two and their maturity will bring positive results. I think both are still on the steep part of the learning curve. Now, it is pure talent that carries them. This should be Borbon's year to shine but even if it is next then I still like what I see sans dumb, impulsive moves.