Adam Dunn Signs With Chicago
Another day, another big-dollar signing, and another name erased from the Rangers' whiteboard. Two years after setting his open-market asking price at four years and $56 million and ultimately coming away with only two years and $20 million, Adam Dunn finally secured the former sum in a deal that renders him White Sox club property through the 2014 season. Texas seemed to be on the periphery of the Dunn discussions as a (rightfully) interested but distracted party, with his final price tag and extreme defensive weaknesses probably helping to soften the blow of watching another quality hitter vanish from the free-agent marketplace.
And "hitter" should be thoroughly emphasized here, because it suddenly occurs to me that both Dunn and Victor Martinez (whom the Rangers were said to have seriously pursued before he inked his four-year, $52 million deal with Detroit) are doing something I'm not sure we've ever seen before -- that is, banking over $100 million in guaranteed money between them over a four-year span, and yet at the same time possibly logging the majority of their games played at the designated hitter spot. Dunn's role hasn't yet been clarified (there's some thought that he'll receive some work at first base, though he's far better suited as an everyday DH), but the word on Martinez is that he'll serve as the Tigers' primary DH and catch anywhere from 2-3 times a week.
You can classify this as pure coincidence or attempt to extract something of actual meaning from it, but the one thing we can be sure of is that this is not a common occurrence. In the last five years, I could only find one other free-agent player with such glaring defensive problems who pulled down a contract worth at least $50 million: Carlos Lee, Houston's $100 million mistake of the 2006-07 off-season. It's now four years later, the defensive revolution has swept through baseball and UZR is slowly becoming as well-known as OPS ... and yet, the money continues to line the pockets of no-defense players, or at the very least players whose fielding ability is compromised to the point that they're forced to abandon the playing field. Why?
It's simple, actually -- so simple, and yet so easily forgettable at times. At various points over the last several years, I've voiced my disapproval of the defense of Michael Young, Hank Blalock, Vladimir Guerrero (ugh) and others, but the thing you have to remember when you're panning weak-fielding players is that this flaw can almost always be overlooked if the bat is good enough. The amount of attention paid by the typical fan to the mainstream defensive metrics has skyrocketed over the last several years, and more than once I've distinctly felt that the pendulum had swung too far, too fast. Defense was dramatically undervalued for years relative to offense, but in no way does that mean the two are incapable of swapping places -- my overriding point being that if you're going to evaluate a player, you have to take every component of his overall value into account. Don't zero in on a single component and miss the big picture, as I've done myself on a few occasions.
As far as the Dunn contract itself, I guess it is what it is -- Chicago brings his massive power numbers into a hitter's haven, and will benefit greatly in the short term, and will come to regret the deal if his decline phase kicks in sharply and suddenly after a couple of years. This is the kind of deal that is heavily context-dependent, as the White Sox had several lineup holes in urgent need of remedy and plenty of money to spend; in the Rangers' case, the hole is far less significant, and inking Dunn now probably would have had some impact on the way they went about their still-unresolved pursuit of Cliff Lee. I'm assuming Dunn will rake lots of home runs in that south-side bandbox, generally make life unhappy for AL Central pitchers, and maybe compel J.P. Ricciardi to say something stupid again.
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Reader Comments (18)
Sorry to move off the subject, but it occurred to me last night that JD fully intends to have both Lee and Greinke pitching here this season if there's any way he can pull it off. The wild card is Lee, not Greinke, since JD has less control over that one because he can't offer the entire budget. JD thinks big. That's the thought that kept coming back to me. If he signs Lee, he won't be finished. He'll go hard after Greinke. He wants to assemble the best rotation in the majors. With that rotation, the big bat imperative becomes...well, less imperative.
I wonder if this could cause Paul Konerko's price to come down.
Evidently, in some circles at least, the economy is not as bad as it is in others.
This does not strike me as a time for over paying FA's with chronic 9+% unemployment for as far as the eye can see affecting the overall economy. However, I will be really curious to see what Vlad get's since several teams have clearly placed very high value on hitting and very low value on (lack of) defensive ability.
Fortunately, JD et al seem to not be part of this insanity and are staying on the course that built this franchise to what it currently is. JD appears to still remember lessons learned the hard way from several poor decisions in his first years.
This value point could be applied to Russel Martin. Unless his injury recovery is not going well I think the Dodgers may have made a mistake, and most fans seem to be underrating him. He is no longer the Russel Martin of a few years ago when he hit extremely well for a catcher and displayed solid defense making him one of the most valuable commodities in baseball.
The Dodgers rode him hard, and he slowed down a lot the last two seasons, including a hip fracture last year. But even with a huge slowdown in sexy numbers, he still put up a roughly .350 OBP and was a 2 WAR player in each of the last two years. That has value at catcher, and if the medicals check out he'll be easily worth the $5M or so he would have made in arbitration.
Martin will play at age 28 next season, and the time off in 2010 may be enough to rejuvenate him somewhat. Several teams are already calling his agent, and I hope Daniels is one of them. Another team with a sure starting role available will likely get him, but TX should be talking to him.
As for Dunn, I think he's a better bet to be worth his deal than Victor Martinez is.
@tball - I agree, Dunn will prove to be the better buy over VMart. Dunn seems to be constantly under-valued when compared to players putting up similiar numbers. This guy has averaged 38 HRs over the last 8 years, which is pretty remarkable. I realize power numbers are not always indicative of succesful baseball... but having a 6'6 monster batting 5th changes the whole makeup of your lineup. And being 31, 32, 33, 34 or 35 is much more palatable at DH than at 1B or the OF. I think the White Sox made a wise choice.
I have a question for you (tball); what kind of money would you throw at Russell Martin? Would you give him a similar deal as Torrabela? Or, would you give him a 1 yr "show me what you can do" contract? A hip injury for a catcher cannot be an easy thing to overcome... so lets say you take a flyer on him and throw 2 yr $7M his way... he could very easily become injured again and then what... you're left with a $7M DH that's not nearly as productive as a DH should be. I think he's a risk and the Dodgers knew what they were doing when they cut him loose. Granted, $7M isn't much of a gamble... but when you have no idea what it may cost to land such guys as Lee and Grienke (well, you know what he makes... but you still have to plan for his $13m), it's simply not worth the risk.
The health questions on Martin are serious enough, and the decline in his numbers great enough, that it would have to be a one year make good deal. I think the Dodgers should have tried harder to sign him at a lower contract, or started seriously trying to trade him sooner.
Of course, maybe when the Dodgers did finally make an offer Martin and his agent were unreasonable. I don't see anyone giving him a multi-year deal. He'll probably get a million or two base with incentives.
I heard the Dodgers haven't ruled out resigning Martin, and that being from the East coast, he's maybe looking to move back out that way. Rumored was Toronto and of course the NYY. I think NY might make sense, of course they've got a good crop of young catchers in the waiting.
A name I find intriguing is Orlando Hudson. I know he's primarily a 2B but does anyone know if he has the arm to play 3B?
If so, he could actually fill several roles;
- upgrade the infield defense by playing 3B, or at least split time with MY
- pave the way to move MY to DH, which would eliminate the need for an expensive bat like Konerko, or even Vlad
- provide high quality (albeit expensive) insurance policy in case any of the IFers goes down with injury (Kins is a lock to hit the DL at least a couple of time
Regardless of an obvious hole to fill, having a guy like him on your team may be the difference in winning a pennant or going home early... ala Juan Uribe and/or Edgar Renteria.
So, does it make more sense to throw a $6M or $7M deal at a versatile, good player like Hudson... or throw $8M - $12M at a guy that's primarily going to play DH?
Now, I wouldn't touch Hudson if he's looking for Uribe type money... but if he's willing to take a 2yr $13M deal, I'd at least entertain the idea.
If JD and co. are intent of finding a DH, why not look at Carlos Pena? There's no telling what caused him to have such a horrible 2010... but as a result, maybe he's only looking for a 1 yr deal in hope he rebounds and hits FA next year...
Anyone have an idea of his market value? Might he bite on a 1yr/$6M deal laden with incentives?
There are a bunch of DH options out there (Konerko, Thome, Ordonez, Manny, Cust, etc...)... and a guy like Pena may be a steal. And since we're seemingly hamstrung while waiting on Lee to make up his damn mind, maybe JD should start looking at reclamation projects, ala Vlad (last year).
I'm admittedly ancy and want the Rangers to start making some big, yet shrewed moves. JD needs to get going pretty soon or were going to see some of those options sign with other teams, namely the A's.
nobody talks about Manny, because of his baggage, but he can still hit, with our clubhouse we should be able to control him, and he would make a good backup for hammy...
please be gentle, but what do you think????
Milton Bradley was a hothead, but he worked out for us? why not Manny??
be nice... I just think he is an overlooked FA.
Chuck Greenberg annonces $13 million upgrades to new videoboard and audio: http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/rangers-spend-13-million-on-vi.html
@ Pabloesque:
I like the idea of overlooking Pena's 2010 and pursuing him as a DH. Be aware, though, that it's not 14 AL teams looking at him for DH. He's a pretty solid 1B defender, so all of the NL clubs will be in on him as well, unlike Konerko or Vlad or the other DH-only types.
What might Jack Cust command as a 5th OF/part time DH, I wonder?
@billy - I think Mannys definitely in the mix, or at least he should be. It was what, 2 winters ago he was commanding a $20-$25M deal (per year)? What did the Dodgers give him... 2 yrs $40M or something nuts like that?
Put Manny in the bandbox and he replicates the numbers he put up when he was 1st traded to LA. And from all we've read about Manny being Manny, I don't recall him being a complete a-hole like Milton Bradley.
@Scooby - for some reason I didn't really think about Pena actually playing 1B. You're right though, he's an above average defender. Like Hudson, maybe he'd come in here and pretty much split time between 1B/DH... and then we could take the gentle approach with Moreland.
Speaking of Moreland, do any of you think his name has been talked about as a trade chip? As I mentioned earlier, there's a bunch of guys out there right now to play 1B/DH... and maybe that makes Moreland expendable in the right deal. How about Moreland, Borbon, and Hunter for Carlos Gonzalez? Just kidding!
Joey, you should love these remarks Jon Daniels made to Jeff Caplan today (on the ESPN Rangers blog):
Daniels said that Vladimir Guerrero is still in the mix for the DH spot, but also said there's been some discussion about looking at a more versatile defender who could " allow some of our other guys some time off their feet and allow us the flexibility with the roster to move some guys through that position, but Vlad is certainly high on the list. We continue to talk with he and his agent. - end quote
Wow, that sounds like what many of us have been wishing for -- a DH rotation that helps keep some of the team's most valuable properties rested and healthy.
Rumor out today that Texas is working on Crawford, which would go along with what t ball wrote at 9:22. You'd have to think that they would only do that if they are certain they aren't getting Lee, and are going to definitely include Borbon in the deal w/ KC for Greinke?
I really hope the Cliff Lee thing makes it's mind up soon. We are reall getting screwed out of signing people by waiting for him to shit or get off the pot.
Guerrero gets no love whatsoever. Texas wouldn't have made it without him when Borbon and Davis struggled badly then Kinsler, Cruz and Hamilton missed so much time.
Name a Ranger full-time DH in history to hit .300 with 29 HR and 115 RBI....how many have there been?
He has flaws but others strike out way too much. At least Vlad makes contact and he scares the hell out of everybody because no matter what they throw it could turn into a mistake. We have speed and outfielders so Vlad doesn't need to do that well.
Get a clue and quit being so hard on a likable HOF guy. He isn't asking for a great deal of money like the ones getting 12-15 million per, he just wants to know he has two more years of cash coming his way. I think he's the most dangerous bat and best bargain around. However, Crawford coming would force limited cash and a rotation of players through the DH role.
Strikes me to be very risky for both DET and CHW to tie up for such long deals 1 dimensional players. What do their teams do if they go into 4 - 5 week or longer slumps? They are stuck ... for 4 years.