When Variability Is Not A Bad Thing
As the Rangers and Angels play their multi-million dollar game of chicken with Adrian Beltre, I wanted to take a quick minute to address an important issue regarding signing him long-term. Many people have stated that the problem with Beltre is that he is an inconsistent (offensive) player, making it hard to feel confident in a projected performance level for him or giving him a multi-year contract. Variance is an important subject and a point of criticism for many of the projection systems that come out each spring; two players with the same projection can have different value if one has a small projected variance and the other has a much wider range to their projection. In statistical terms, we’re talking about the variance (σ2) and standard deviation (σ) about each mean projection. In general, smaller variance is desired.
I’ve charted Beltre’s wRC+ by year and added Michael Young’s as a comparison. wRC+ is a stat based on wOBA, but is park- and league-adjusted. Similar to OPS+ or ERA+, it is set up so that average is 100 (denoted by the solid line on the chart):
At first glance, it seems that Michael Young’s career wRC+ follows a career arc similar to what we expect for a player, and that Adrian Beltre’s career wRC+ is subject to more variance. The means for Beltre and Young are 110.5 wRC+ and 106.6 wRC+, respectively. Interestingly, the standard deviation (σ) from these means is 22.1 for Beltre and 19.0 for Young.
Furthermore, there is a very important point that becomes clear once you examine Beltre’s seasons in comparison to average (black line): Though Beltre does have significant variance, that variance has not resulted in many bad seasons. In 12 years, he has had five years under 105 wRC+ and just three years under 97 wRC+. The variance in Beltre’s yearly average generally results in a range from average to elite. While not as valuable as a player who is consistently elite every year, that is still more valuable that a player who is consistently average each year.
In my previous article on Beltre, I had projected him to be around 3.5-4.0 WAR player next year and 3.0-3.5 WAR player in 2012, which means he would be providing excess value over his likely $15 million per year contract initially (assuming $5 million per win above replacement) That projection broke down into roughly 10 runs (or 1 WAR) from defense and 20-30 runs (or 2-3 WAR) from offense (average to above-average production for a full season). This projection accounts for the odds that he has one of his below-average seasons by balancing it with the odds that he has an elite season.
Lastly, take a look at how Beltre’s elite glove has helped make him an above-average player for every year of his career except one (solid black line = 2 WAR, or roughly average). Furthermore, the dashed line represents 3 WAR, or the level of production needed to justify a $15 million per year contract. Notice that he has met this standard all but three times in his career:
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (42)
Even though Young's offensive numbers were down from his career averages last year, he still ranked high. He tied with Hamilton with the 6th highest number of base hits with 186--just three fewer than Beltre. Young was 8th in runs scored with 99; and he tied for 11th in runs produced with ARod with 169.
I know that Young seemed not to have a quick reaction to balls hit right to him, but we all know that Mike's the kind of guy who will work on that in spring training and improve himself defensively. It's not yet time for Mike to be regulated to utility/DH.
I just want to take a second to say that all of Prashanth's work at BBTiA so far has been fantastic. Bravo sir.
what the heck happened in 04 for beltre? 10?!?
More BS from the anti-Young Crowd who don't know what a jock looks like.
Awesome stuff! Any thoughts on how Young's defense would be if he played at 2nd next year Pras?
@Snowcourt: I'm not Pras, of course, but given Young's range and reaction issues, moving him to 2nd wouldn't seem like such a great idea. (He wasn't an especially great defender there even at the start of his career, although that certainly seems to have been his most natural position to date.)
The bigger question: what are you doing with Kinsler, if you move Young to second?
The most intriguing idea that I've seen so far involves Young moving to first after a trade for pitching involving Moreland, coupled with signing Beltre -- but I think all of those are long shots, at best. Lots of moving pieces.
Conveniently enough, Fangraphs' explanatory post on WAR used Beltre as an example, showing how he is a bit underrated due to park effects.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-one
I really don't see the Rangers winning even such an under the radar bidding war as the one that seems to be going on over Beltre right now. Not because they can't, but because they value Young's position in the clubhouse as much as his position on the field.
If I had the kind of luck that leads to winning lottery tickets, I'd wish for Young to proactively go to the clubhouse and tell the team to sign Beltre and move him to DH or something, as he did back in the day. I can dream.
It's worth pointing out that the offensive output of a typical 3B is just about league average. We should not expect our 3B to be leading the league in offensive categories. When you have a player such as Beltre who has average or better skills with the bat and plus defense, that is quite valuable.
Mike Olt is someone in the system who could turn out to be acceptable with the bat and plus on defense. Not a Beltre level player most likely, but a valuable one nonetheless.
lots of insight... great article.... I may don't understand everything you wrote (some of the "technical stuff"), but it made me think.... very different from mainstream media.
First, did anyone proof your work before you posted. I do math all day and can make the simplest mistakes. Second, thank you for the analysis. I would like to think moving MY would be a mistake just to plug in Beltre. This team needs a CF to lesson the chance of an aging Hamilton from injuries and better top of the rotation pitching. I want to see some analysis of Borbon going forward. Is he the solution? I was crushed when Hunter went to the Angels. Is there a better CF out there the Rangers could get?
Amazing that an article with a little math would scare some and bring out the beast in the gentlest of men.
1. Ease up Scooby...you're usually more level headed and reasonable.
2. Young with his limited range is not a "replacement" for Kinsler at 2B and why would you get rid of speed, power and youth just to keep Young or make some acquisition?
3. Young can't field a hot corner well enough, stretch far enough, reach high enough or field short hops at 1B...just because he's always played baseball doesn't mean he can do that.
4. Baseball is a game to us, but it's really a business. Do you keep Young for $16 million or get Beltre for $15 million? The team can't pay Young that kind of money to DH when players like Vlad and others that come along only get $5-8 million per or you can rotate existing players for nothing extra!!!
Apparently someone (jdb) is now using my handle in an attempt to stir up trouble in the bbtia community. Note the use of all caps on the word idiots. I would strongly urge Joey to get on the task of banning his IP address permanently.
This is a fantastic analysis, by the way, and is swaying my view on Beltre.
ive seen mike olt is a top ten prospect in the rangers farm system but hes kinda old for the competition can some one please tell me how mendoncas doing and how he compares agaist Olt i really liked this guy at Fresno State. Thanks
can some one please tell me how mendoncas doing and how he compares agaist Olt i really liked this guy at Fresno State. Thanks
It's my understanding that one would be wise not to get their hopes up over Mendonca at this point. He has some significant plate discipline problems that I'm afraid will still have him bouncing around in the AA-AAA sphere at age 25.
Many thanks to Joey for dealing with my posting doppleganger. Hopefully, all post from here on out will be authentic Scooby Dude material.
I can't see moving people all over the infield as a viable strategy for 2011. I've always been highly suspicious of Beltre's 2004 season and it clearly impacted the Mariners decision when they acquired him, thinking they were getting one kind of player, but actually getting another. Fool me once when a player's is in his 20's, ok. Fool me twice now that he's on the wrong side of 32? For 5 years? Pass.
I love MY but he isnt a productive player anymore. He is a double play machine(at the plate), loyalty gets franchises in trouble sometimes(look at the Cowboys). I dont want him gone but wouldnt it be best for the roster? Thats debateable I guess. Im not sure what to do with Mike but his defense is bad, he didnt hit when it counted, and his contract is bad. The Rangers cant just let it go and keep him there for 4 more years, something has to change theremaybe not htis year but definitely sooner rather than later, its a very bad place to be for the front office. Maybe the answer is trading Kinsler he is overrated anyway and move Mike back to 2nd.
I think that we will see better defense and fewer DPs from MY this year.
Can somebody please explain what WAR means? I have seen the acronym thrown around for a while now, but I'm not sure I know what it means. Thanks for the help.
The biggest argument in favor of signing Beltre is that Young is truly incapable of playing 3B for the next 3 years. If Young could give you below average D and above average/average O for the next 3 years at 3rd I think it would be ok to leave him there to play out his contract and then find a solution/hope Mike Olt is ready to go by then. But Young really has one, maybe two years left at 3rd before it is completely infeasible to leave him over there (some may argue that time has already come). Adrian Beltre is one of the best 3B to come on the market in the last several years (especially defensively) and the Rangers are in a legitimate position to sign him for probably market value for the first 3ish years and then a slight overpay in years 4/5. This sets you up nicely for the remainder of Young's contract with him being your DH, but also able to fill in at 1st/3rd/2nd if one of those players goes down for any extended period of time. (you bite the bullet on the shaky D due to injury and let Murph/Hamilton/Cruz share the DH duties). Without getting Beltre we are going to be in a similar situation next offseason except who knows if there will be an available 3rd baseman willing to come to Texas, and Young will be a year older and a year slower. Solving the issue now keeps us from a lot of headaches down the road and just makes too much sense not to do in my opinion. Get it done JD.
@ Michael: WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. It denotes how many aggregate wins a player earns his team over a pickup they could make at anytime for the ML minimum. Joaquin Arias is an example of a replacement-level player.
I dont understand WHY MY's contract is a problem???
just put him where you want him and pay him..... for the next 4 years.. dont let him hurt thr team..
we traded Arod and paid him while he played for the yanks, maybe still are?
we cut Padilla, and eat his salary because he was hurting the team.....
SO if MY is hurting the team, do what ever needs to be done, and continue paying him, but dont let him hurt the club....
you may think this is a sport, haha. it is all about money, and the promise of more to come.
People are saying that Young's lack of range at 3B will translate to a lack of range at 2nd. Am I the only one that thinks this is like comparing apples and oranges? Isn't third base range a lot more about quick reactions whereas at 2nd base you have more time to react, in general, on balls that are not hit as hard? I'm not saying that Young would replace Kinsler's defense but I wonder if he could be an average second baseman defensively. Of course moving Young to 2nd would have a lot more to do with what we could get for Kinsler than it has to do with one's desire to move Young there, although if we got Beltre that would all have to happen simultaneously (unlikely).
Throw the stats out the window. Michael Young was a stud when the team was losing and as I recall did a lot of talking about the time Tex was traded. However in the heat of a pennant race he cratered down the stretch last year, both with the glove and the bat.
Your comparing MY years that he played at SS, 2B & 3B...to a guy who has played third all his life.
Ask Beltre to make a position change twice and see how he does. We all know MY struggles at 3B..but who would you rather have up when you need to big base hit...a two strike hit. I will tak MY over Beltre any day of the week and twice on Sunday!!
joe@ MY at 2nd would be terrible...
just think of how many plays Kins makes between 2nd & 1st, knowing that Elvis has 2nd to ss covered. do you really think MY could do that if he had 5 minutes to think about it??
MY is a lost cause at this point in time.... let him coach or something. but retire him from the field.
I don't have the answer, and I'm not completely opposed to bringing in Beltre; however, Young to 2B makes no sense.
If you complain about him adjusting to playing 3B (a position which takes a few years of playing to really learn) his range and play at 2B would be enough to make many of the heads on this site explode.
Yes, he's played there before, but his last year at 2B was in '03, so I'd imagine he would have yet another period of adjustment to get re-familiarized with playing 2B. I know he won't be great this year at 3B, but I do believe he'll be improved. If you remember at the beginning of last season, the most frustration came with his throws to 1B, he wasn't making them. That problem fixed itself and then the focus switched to the lack of balls he was scooping at 3B and his technique for doing so. I know Michael wants to play every day in the field, and I've got to believe he is trying hard to improve his defense. An eventual move to DH is in the future, but if you're bringing in another 3Bman it's for defensive purposes (let's face it, this team is not looking to upgrade 3B because of Mike's offense, it's the defensive upgrade that intrigues them) then your $16M current 3Bman and face-of-the-franchise is going to need to be moved elsewhere, again, and 2B (to me) is not an option.
The only other moves then become 1B and DH. I don't see him taking either move too gracefully and with a move to 1B comes another period of adjustment and learning a new position. To me, even if I'm on board with singing Beltre -- it doesn't make sense unless you can convince Mike to either [a] DH [b] learn 1B or [c] trade him and eat some of his salary. I'd prefer [a] but I can't see how this would all work out if Beltre is brought in.
Yes, he's a major league player, but you can't just stick him at a new position every few years and not expect a period of adjustment. I think moving him to another position right now (that doesn't require learning to sit on the bench), even if he played there 7 years ago, doesn't make much sense.
I'm a fan of MY and all he has done for this team over the years, but I also don't want to see fans resent him for his play at 3B or see him sent off for a prospect and a third of his salary being paid. Conundrum -- glad it's not my call.
Potential 3rd base free agents next offseason:
Third Basemen
Casey Blake LAD *
Mark DeRosa SF
Greg Dobbs PHI
Aramis Ramirez CHC
Translation: don't sign Beltre and you are committing to 2011 and 2012 with MY at 3rd. This is not something I want to do.
My concerns about MY is the same as it has been for the past 4 years. He hits in way to many DPs to be a top of the order hitter and he cannot pull the ball when needed. He has a slow bat, that is why the large amount of DPs. We need a more consistant hitter who does not end late inning rallies.
Thanks Joey i guess hes not the answer at third
on another note i read somewhere that MY played CF in college @ UC Santa Barbra i know he probly cant play center anymore but is there any chance the rangers can put him in the outfield?
MY does K too much and his 20 Es or so do stick out. That doesn't even tell the whole story w/so many just miss balls that whiz by his glove. He hits into too many DPs at always the wrong time.
Check the good points: He shows up every game and played 155 or so w/650 ABs last season. He got as many hits as the league MVP. He scored as close to 100 as one can get w/o hitting it. Check his Total Innings Played on defense. The man is a work horse. he is your Blue Collar guy who brings his lunch pale everyday. 20+ HRs, 3 dz 2Bers. He does need to bat lower in the order like maybe 5th or 6th. He is slow but everyday Wash has one player that has been available. One of the things that helped the Rangers succeed was getting some time off. Everyone caught a break but MY. It helped most of them. Give the man a break. By knowing batters and your own pitcher one can learn more about where is best to play a defensive position. It all takes some time to acclimate to where best to play. Who pulls pitches? Who hits more ground balls? Elvis will be a year older. The secret to learning is Prior Knowledge. What one learns this year helps him the next. A .284 BA is hard to replace w/186 hits. And he never quits on you. You still might see him gone but......
@ Martin: I think OF (not CF, but RF or LF) is Young's best move right now. His athleticism probably still plays there as a solid to plus defender, and his bat would be at least average for those positions. However, where do those ABs come from? Not from Cruz, not from Hamilton. Probably not from Murphy, who, in my opinion, is on the verge of being a really good ML hitter over the next couple of seasons. And all 3 are really good fielders for COFs.
To me, the best thing for Young would be a trade to a solid NL team in need of a COF. I don't know who that might be, but I think it makes sense. And I would rather pay a third of Young's salary and trade him for a bag of balls and a Pete Rose autograph and then go get Beltre than pay Young that salary to play 3B for the next 3 seasons. I just don't see it in the cards, however. I just think we're going to have to ride it out a bit longer.
As for him improving defensively this season, there are 2 schools of thought. One is that he is a year more experienced at 3B, and will be better in his 3rd season at the position than he was in his 2nd. The other is that it's called the "hot corner" for a reason, and he will be a year older and less quick than he was a year ago, and therefore should be worse than he was a year ago. I tend to be of the latter opinion. But hey, let's hope I'm wrong.
If Chris Davis could only get out of AAAA and become a real big league hitter... I wonder how his glove is looking at 3B -- Might they be holding out hope on him as a possible replacement in the next few years?
@ Scooby: part of playing "the hot corner" is reaction time... you're right, but with another year of experience comes better knowledge of hitters, pitchers and positioning to make those quick shots easier to pick up and read. But with age also comes regression in speed and I agree that he's not going to be moving any faster on the field.
And I've also agreed in the past with your NL COF future for Mike. I could see this happening... but probably not until he is a free agent, unless the Rangers are willing to eat a large chunk of his salary.
but then couldnt the rangers use MY as not only a INF utility type but also COF as well and shit if Joaquin Freakin Arias can play a few games at first why cant we put MY out in CF a few games to let Josh Hamilton a break? or if were guna play Borbon in CF we can put MY to face the tough leftys i really hope we sign Beltre and Guerrero and use MY as a guy who can play some 1st 2nd 3rd SS and OF/PH role and be something like a hitting coach to the young guys he can hit thats for sure
The Padres are a team that intrigue me. They have a good young pitching staff and could probably use a bat like MY's if he were to shift to a corner OF spot lime previously discussed. We would have to eat a large chunk of his salary, but at least MY would be closer to home. I am not saying this is realistic, just a thought that crossed my mind.
@ Lfloyd: Not a bad destination for Mike Young. If they would eat $10 mil/yr of his contract, they could have him from me for more or less nothing. Then give Beltre $15m/yr.
@ Martin: The Rangers have indicated a desire to play Hamilton in LF most of the time. I presume this means Borbon starts 120 or so games in CF, and Hamilton probably the other 40 or so. If the Rangers sign Vlad to DH about 120-140 games, there are not even enough OF games to split between Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy and Borbon, much less adding Young into the mix.
On the other hand, if the idea is to not sign Vlad and use existing players at DH, it probably makes more sense for Young to DH than for Young to play OF while Hamilton or Cruz DHs, Hamilton and Cruz being established OF defenders.
This whole thing wreaks of effort.
Im not saying they should plan on using him in the OF but things happen what if Hamilton Cruz and Kinsler get hurt again they could use Blanco at 2nd and MY in RF with Borbon in CF and Murphy in LF i think they should at least make it an option to give him some spring training time out there. I just hope the rangers dont loose Hamilton and Cruz to injury and Guerrero turns out to be a bust and were despretely looking for an OF bat and have to trade away good prospects
Martin,
You lose cred when you start talking about putting MY in center field, you lose cred man, bottom line.
Joe
ok so juaquin arias can play first base but MY cant play a few emergency innings in CF ok
I mean this as no disrespect to Joe, but Martin's comment gave me a good chuckle.