Report: Rangers Agree To Terms With Brandon Webb
On the one holiday weekend where thousands (or hundreds of thousands?) receive lottery tickets as gifts, the Rangers have acquired a sort of major league lottery ticket -- a supremely talented paragon of durability sabotaged by shoulder problems that now force him to take a guaranteed sum at least $100 million less than what he would have been due had he remained healthy going into this off-season. In this case, Brandon Webb's loss is the Rangers' possible gain. Possible, but certainly not probable.
As was first reported by FanHouse.com's Ed Price, Texas reportedly agreed to terms with Webb on a one-year deal worth an undisclosed amount of money on Sunday (pending physical, although this is not expected to be an issue); little is known about the agreement beyond that, although the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro confirms that the deal is "incentive-laden" -- as per the norm with pitchers coming off serious injuries -- and further indicates that the Rangers have "long coveted" Webb, with sources stating that Texas attempted to acquire Webb multiple times during his superb 2003-2009 run in Arizona.
Momentarily setting aside the distinct possibility of pre-surgery Webb and post-surgery Webb being nothing alike, I think the historical significance of pre-surgery Webb's numbers is worth noting: in the post-integration era (1947-present), Webb ranks 21st in total wins above replacement amassed in his age 24-29 seasons (29.5 wins, per Baseball Reference's version of the metric) and an astonishing 10th in ERA+ (144), above the likes of Sandy Koufax, Jim Palmer and Juan Marichal. He's the sort of pitcher that traditionalists and sabermetricians alike can appreciate, in the sense that he's very good at preventing runs and collecting wins, and does so through sustainable means (middling strikeout rates, better-than-average walk rates, and homer-smothering grounder-inducing tendencies) while chewing up tons of innings. He's not only a workhorse, he's a No. 1-caliber workhorse.
Or perhaps "was" is the more appropriate grammatical tense. I'm inclined to think the chances of Webb, a legitimate pre-injury ace in every sense of the word, coming back and posting a respectable 2011 campaign are better than what the term "lottery ticket" connotes, and there is some cause for encouragement if you look at a few of the other great hurlers who enjoyed immediate success after missing at least one season due to shoulder ailments (the aforementioned Jimmy Key, Orel Hershiser, and Bret Saberhagen, as well as Chris Carpenter, and probably another name or two that I'm forgetting), but such success is the exception more so than it is the norm. Once you acknowledge this, and realize that Webb very well could give Texas nothing next season, you can move forward in generating a realistic 2011 forecast.
Beyond the Box Score produced an informative look at how a decline in post-surgery Webb's fastball velocity relative to his pre-surgery velocity could have deleterious effects on his ground-to-fly ball ratio, and I found the key takeaway to be that his ground ball percentage could dip 5-10 percent, given an average decline between 2-5 miles per hour. Using David Brown's old research on ground-to-fly ball ratios as a template (which indicates that a 50-point drop in the ground-to-fly ball ratio -- say, 2.00 to 1.50 -- usually corresponds with a 20-25 point increase in ERA), one finds that Webb's ERA, given a five mile per hour loss in velocity, could suffer by a magnitude of 60-70 points -- and that's before accounting for the strikeout hit, or any rehab-related control/command problems. This is rather extreme, but you get the general idea.
As I wrote before, signing Webb is not a bad idea per se. There are ways that this can benefit the Rangers beyond him returning to ace-caliber form -- he could, for example, churn out 150 innings of average quality and, in the process, prevent Texas from being forced to run Omar Beltre or any other pitcher in need of additional minor league seasoning out there in the rotation spot he's occupying. In that sense, Webb is a safety net, albeit one who may very well need his own safety net, and even though this signing may be adequate when viewed in isolation (I'm withholding final judgment until I see the dollar amounts), I know I'm not the only one hoping that another starting pitching acquisition is forthcoming. This is a decent start, but it can't end here.
Analysis, NEWSFLASH, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (52)
Oh hai Brandon.
I'd be perfectly happy if we get pavano/francis to round out our rotation.
CJ / Pavano / Colby / Webb / Holland
Keep our bullpen powerful and have Tommy Hunter be our long relief guy.
Just don't overspend for either.
Good move if Webb is healthy he will be a real fit in our ballpark. I have a gut feeling that this move is really going to pay now & many years down the road as opposed to spending all that money on Lee
Nice sign. Webb finds his sinker again and we will bs in business.
Good good on Webb. No to Pavano though.
I have a gut feeling that this move is really going to pay now & many years down the road as opposed to spending all that money on Lee
Well, considering that Lee's a good bet to post 5-6 WAR next season (and possibly seven again), I don't think the Lee-for-Webb trade-off is a good thing in the short term, particularly given the risk that Webb gives you little to nothing.. I'll buy the long-term risk argument, though.
WWJDD- agreed on Pavano. Pass.
It's all a crap shoot. This crap just costs less than other crap. What if all of these guys hit, as in succeed? Too much Christmas cheer, here.
Yay! We beat a mystery team for a free agent pitcher! So was this and the Arthur Rhodes signing what Daniels had that was "big" right before Christmas? I kinda hope not. I'm still holding out for an impressive trade. Our rotation isn't bod at this point though:
Wilson
Lewis
Webb
Hunter
Holland
Maybe we can get some production from Feldman too. They really just have to get us to the 6th inning with that bullpen.
Joey I did not me that Webb was a good trade off for lee I was looking more @ the money end of it for this year & long term. I just did not think Lee was worth the money he was being offered. I would rather take a chance on a low risk high reward guy like Webb who has more soild #'s over a whole career than lee's when Webb was healthy even though he may never reach that level again but I think it is worth a shot none of the other pitchers left on the market have the potential that Webb does.
I also meant they could use the money in other spots like to help the team more maybe not now but @ the deadline this year or whatever. I do not really see anything else on the market worth spending any money on. I sure would not spend that much on Beltre to me is somewhat overrated.
I certainly like this signing. A good value bet. Now sign Jeff Francis. Or carl Pavano if the money isn't crazy.
@Mike Walters: I also meant they could use the money in other spots like to help the team more maybe not now but @ the deadline this year or whatever.
Exactly....and also sign those multiple first/supplemental draft picks in 2011.
Was Pavano offered arbitration? He is a Type A free agent.
I like the Webb signing. If he's not ready to start, maybe he can be effective in long relief. If nothing else, it buys a little more time for our young pitching to mature.
I LIKE THE WEBB SIGNING AND LOOK FORWARD TO A BLOCKBUSTER SIGNING NOW OR TRADE AT THE JULY SIGNING DEAD LINE. BELTRE BOTHERS ME AS HIS GOOD YEARS HAVE COME ON HIS FREE AGENCY YEARS AND WE WANT TO KEEP THE CLUB HOUSE CHEMISTRY AS IT HAS BEEN. NOT THAT HE'S A BAD GUY BUT WE WANT ALL OUT EFFORT AS WE HAD IN 2010. LOOKING FORWARD TO ANOTHER EXCITING YEAR. LAST YEAR WAS AWESOME!!!
Pavano was offered arbitration and he declined. He is also a Type A meaning the Rangers would have to give up their 1st round pick in what is considered to be a strong top end draft.
I hope they don't sign him.
I really don't know why people are so anti-Pavano. He seems like a very good bet to be a legitimate #2 starter for a good team. We won't have a true #1 next year, but 3 #2s will go a long way!
Pavano is a type A who was offered arbitration. Makes me look at him and go meh, since he has been rather inconsistent. I wouldn't sign a type A for one year, and I wouldn't want to give Pavano multiple years. But that's just me. Do you get the sub 4 ERA pitcher or the Pitcher who is above 5 ERA? Not worth it for a type A FA.
Webb is a decent bargain bin gamble. One year deal. If he works out we get probably a mid rotation guy, I doubt he hits back to Ace level this year, if ever. We'll see.
YAWWWWWNNNNNN
Glad to see we got a quality arm. The contract is incentive driven so I hope the salary will be high as I am hoping the performance will dictate!
http://sportschatterings.blogspot.com/
I don't see how anyone can be upset with this deal. Texas has more than enough starting pitching depth with all their young guys, and if Webb is even half as good as he was in his Cy Young year, he will help this team. I also don't see how anyone can be upset with JD or with Texas. They went all out on getting Lee and he chose to play in Philly. Now that ship has sailed, and the only thing JD can do is exactly what he is doing - sign guys for depth, pick up a couple of low risk / high payoff players like Webb, and save the big bucks for the trade deadline in case the team is in contention come July.
They do have to get a DH, and I wouldn't be surprised if JD pulls a Hamilton-esque trade out of his hat in the next month, but even if not, the team is very young, talented, and in really good shape for next season.
Scooby - Pavano has 1 good season, and we totally forget the black hole that was his career from 2005-2009?
Whoever gives that guy a fat contract is asking for trouble - hopefully JD is a lot smarter than that.
Webb, Torrealba, Rhodes, and likely Vlad this offseason. Grade = C- or so. Pretty uninspiring offseason. And where was all this great "new budget money" that we were supposed to have with the new owners??
If Hicks were still in charge, there'd be reams of discussion about how he was being cheap this winter and sacrificing a good chance to build on a World Series team.
I think the Rangers have made some very shrewd moves so far this winter. Hopefully Guerrero will be the next domino to fall. If that were to happen, I would be pretty comfortable saying the Rangers project to 90 wins going into spring training. I haven't been able to say that too many times over the years.
the more I watch Jon Daniels the more I appreciate his character. He no doubt has an ego as we all do, but he exhibits wisdom beyond his years in parking his ego, working quietly, and resisting the temptation to throw money at situations that may not be best for this team.
I continue to be amazed at what he and the front office did last year - it should probably be a case study for any class in sports management.
I am confident that he is always working and always consulting with the other members of the FO. Who knows what he has in the works. I'm just glad he is employed by the Rangers and not someone else in the American League.
Webb signing may turn out great for TEX ... but there is more than a better chance that he's just the 2011 version of Jason Jennings, Kent Benson, and Rich Harden.
He needs to win a spot in the rotation.
I think JD has got this roster of pitchers set pretty well for another run at the AL West title. The staff posted a total of 18 WAR last yr, and they can probably beat that in 2011, with comparable performances by CJ and Colby. The superb bullpen seems ready to put about 10 to 11 WAR, and the rotation should produce 10 as well if Dutch comes through with about 2 or 2.5 WAR. You probably can expect whoever soaks up all the innings that went to Harden, Harrison, Nippert and Feldman last yr to be a whole lot better. Those 4 pitchers really dragged down the overall staff performance while consuming about 25% of the total team innings thrown. Hopefully, you can replace a good chunk of those innings with an improved Holland. If Feldman can come back a little bit more like the 2009 version, I can see this staff producing 20 WAR pretty easily. It doesn't have to be Webb that comes through. Hunter will be a solid enough 4th starter, and whoever wins the 5th spot just needs to produce something above replacement level. If the Rangers fail to win the West, I don't believe it will be the pitching...it would more likely be a regression on the offensive side.
That still doesn't mean they are strong enough in the rotation come the playoffs, though. I think you'll see what JD can really do at the trade deadline with plenty of payroll flexibility. Somebody will be looking to get some payroll relief, and I think the Rangers will be in great position to acquire another ace in July. If the Brewers don't pan out, I think they'll be looking to make some moves to improve what remains of their awful farm system. Any of their best 3 starting pitchers would look good in Rangers Red.
Well, I already see a hole in my WAR totals. An excellent bullpen is still pressed hard to accumulate more than about 6.5 WAR just simply based on the limited number of innings they throw. Still, I see us able to match the 18 WAR from last yr without too much difficulty, unless CJ and/or Colby aren't able to come close to their numbers from last yr.
Anyone know contract details?
If Webb is good Webb, the Rangers are in for the AL pennant chase again. Huge IF.
The terrible off-season continues....This is Scott Erickson, Pedro Astacio, Adam Eaton, Jason Jennings, Rich Harden...take your choice. Yet another oft-injured pitcher looking to rekindle his career who you can't count on to do anything.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss...this is a Tom Hicks blueprint.
continuation of a horrific off season for JD
need to land lee, crawford, AGon, werth and trade for mauer, all the while.keeping payroll around 90M....otherwise you get an F
Pull T,
Are you a comedian because your post has me laughing inside?
Joe
how dare you see my post as sarcastic...
everyone knows that deals for the sake of making deals is the path to glory. anytime u don't land a player, regardless of price means a massive gm fail
Anyone know contract details?
From what I can tell from reading various Twitter reports, it's a one-year deal heavy on incentives (I would assume these are mostly tied to innings pitched, with the standard-fare bonuses for All-Star/Cy Young consideration). There has been no mention of a second-year club or mutual option, which I can understand from Webb's point of view, but which I also find disappointing, because it wouldn't shock me at all to see him struggle to get his feet back underneath him in 2011 and then return to quality form in 2012.
Tb signing is good and we will see what happens.....he may bounce back and give us some additional stability in the rotation. No to Pavano, type A and would cost us a first rounder! Not worth it with that guy, at least in my opinion.
Lewis
Webb
Lewis
Holland
Hunter or Ogando?
Still have my doubts about Hunter long term.....just afeeling that his stamina will not be there and if he does not get the amount of runs scored for him this year he had in 2010.,...well he may well be history.
OOpps........in the above post Wilson should be listed at the top of the rotation and not two Lewis'!
No, he isn't Lee, but you can't have enough pitchers. Keep it up. Webb's sinker could work well in Arlington. I actually like this better than selling the farm for Grienke. But there is more to do. Feliz and/or Ogando in the rotation needs to be investigated. Then you take the best five.
You can't guarantee a win with a lottery ticket but it's sure fun dreaming about what could be. I believe JD will still sign another arm for the rotation (I prefer Blanton to Pavano). Kirkman is my "dark horse" for the rotation next year. Hunter will be traded before the beginning of Spring Training.
Wilson
Lewis
Blanton
Webb
Holland
I would be surprised if Texas deals Hunter. A lot of people seem down on the kid, even after the year he had. As for myself, I'll take ten more years like last year from him. Cost controlled, young, effective, relatively healthy pitchers are hard to find. I have no basis in fact, but I think his best days are still ahead of him.
I like the Webb signing. He won't cost much (Norm reportedly said about 4 mill + incentives) and Webb might give Texas a solid mid rotation presence if he can rebound during the season. True, he might flame out, but he does have a track record of excellence before the surgery and that makes (at least some) success more likely in my view.
I think that the rotation has to include the possibility of Feliz as a starter, though. The best place for him long term is giving the Rangers 5-6 quality innings every 5 days instead of 2 closer innings over that same period.
So assuming that everyone is healthy, I would set up the rotation this way:
Wilson
Lewis
Webb
Feliz
Hunter/Holland
Though we know that rotations almost never need only 5 pitchers a year. I think that whoever is #6 would be called on frequently by Memorial Day, if not sooner.
According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Brandon Webb's new contract with the Rangers is worth $3 million in base salary.
I can't get over the fact that free agent pitchers these days say, "what MLB team has money.... and goes to the World Series.... and has a top notch medical staff/doctors? Yeaaah, the Texas Rangers!"
Any update on the Rangers' reported interest in Jeff Francis?
Mark my words: Brandon Webb will have a losing record as a pitcher for the Texas Rangers.
Ominous...
This keeps the Feliz to the rotation idea on hold for a while, unless Webb is unrecoverably broken.
Joey -- I'm not sure why you are so worried that this might be the end of the pitching acquisitions. It's true the rotation is worse than how it finished the World Series. However, I don't really see anyone out ther that i cleary better than CJ or Colby, and that is available either in FA ortrade.
So.... I doubt there will be a pitching acquisition until mid-season.
CJ, Colby, Hunter, Webb, Holland... That compares favorably with the rotation at the beginning of last season.
Dont forget about Eric Hurley this year, He was starting to get there when he got hurt. I think Holland is going to be the guy that saves the rotation next year. just a couple years ago this guy was a top prospect and other than one inning he was pretty good in the postseason I think that can go along way in his development. Webb to me is a gamble, but Vlad was a gamble, Colby was a gamble, putting CJ in the rotation was a gamble, going with a rookie as ur closer was a gamble, keeping Wash around was a gamble. Everyone wants to point out all the failures on gambles I thought I would bring up the gambles that payed off just last year. Stop being negative so called Ranger fans. JD is one of the best GMs in the league let him and Thad and Nolan do it the right way and trust them. Just because they have more money doesnt mean go give everyone stupid contracts, if they overpay a bunch of free agents what do u do with CJ he is free after this year and Josh free the year after that and Nelly and Elvis and Colby good teams keep their players they go overpay someone elses and that dont give 30 something pitchers 7 year contracts. Be realistic, guys. I will let u in on a little secret we arent going to p,ay in the World Series every year. So be happy they r good and enjoy the moments that happen, enjoy winning baseball, be positive and be patient
Look at the pitching depth people. If we can get someone else great, and if we can't fine. We have a whole bunch of starting pitching depth, more than last year, and we did pretty good last year. Let think about all that JD and others did to assemble this depth. If the price is right for a front line starter great, but only if the price is right because we are in a position of strength already. Some teams would be grateful for just three or four starters of this caliber and we have 8 or 9.
CJ
Colby
Tommy
Holland
Webb
Kirkman
Feliz
Ogando
and these guys provide depth too
Feldman
Harrison
Beltre
Joe. You're forgetting Hurley, Robbie Erlin, Ryan Tucker, and Tanner Scheppers as well. We have so many guys that can possibly start for the Rangers is 2011. I'd consider us lucky. With the money we have, I'm sure we'll add an ace pitcher to that list by the July deadline this year. So no need to panic!