The Brandon Webb Kerfuffle
Let's go ahead and face it: people love getting a good deal and, to take that a step further, also love the mere thought of getting a good deal. They also love the thought of their favorite sports team getting a good deal, and it is for that reason that I believe there is a strange sort of positive connotation attached to the phrase "low-risk, high-reward signing." After all, such a phrase implies some probability -- however minimal it may be -- that the signee could produce significant value at a below-market salary, yet still be readily disposable in the event that his performance fails to pass the necessary tests. People love the idea of getting something for less than its actual worth.
And so it is that the Rangers' dalliance with free-agent right-hander Brandon Webb is drawing a fair amount of attention, mostly of the positive variety, with Texas reportedly attempting to hammer out a deal with the one-time Cy Young Award winner (and two-time runner-up); as of early Tuesday afternoon, Webb was scheduled to speak to manager Ron Washington and pitching coach Mike Maddux, and is believed to want to pitch for Texas (though reportedly not for a lengthier period of time than one season). Given the rough contract parameters that Webb is seeking, one could reasonably conclude that he will command a base salary of $4-5 million in 2011, with innings-based incentives that could vault his total compensation beyond $10-11 million.
What renders the term "low-risk signing" something of a misnomer is that every signing carries at least moderate risk if there's any chance of the player being used improperly; sticking by an ineffective player for an excessive period of time can have deletrious effects, particularly if there are potentially better options available, and we've seen instances of this in Texas from time to time. Furthermore, one must also consider the chances of actually unlocking the "high-reward" component -- sure, Webb could replicate his pre-injury form and post a four-plus-win season, but if the probability of such an event is only 5-10 percent, how much emphasis should we really place on the upside?
Notwithstanding the fact that Webb's surgeon is conveniently also the Rangers' team physician (and has green-lit Webb's return to pitching after a two-year layoff), pitchers coming off shoulder injuries -- or any serious injuries at all, really -- are generally poor bets to produce satisfying value; this was particularly true in 2010 (although Rich Harden's inclusion in this list of pitchers is questionable). There are exceptions, of course, and I suspect these are what will engender hope for Webb: Jimmy Key, Orel Hershiser, and Bret Saberhagen. Each of these three veteran hurlers successfully returned from shoulder problems to log at least two more solid seasons before career expiration, and all three were comfortably above average performance-wise (like Webb) before succumbing to season-ending shoulder issues.
Beyond that ray of promise, however, there is little else on a historical level that augurs Webb's successful comeback, as there are countless numbers of pitchers who couldn't pull it off, or actually did pull it off in terms of returning to the majors, but heavily underwhelmed in Year One (Ben Sheets). Even good medical reports for Webb likely render him a coin flip, at very best, and even if he manages to avert further health-related setbacks in 2011, there are enough things that could go wrong and subvert his effectiveness that you really can't lean too optimistic on his median projection, let alone project with much confidence. Perhaps 110-120 innings of league-average baseball, with the understanding that he might be much better but will more likely be worse? I really don't know.
I'm not saying that signing Webb is a bad idea, of course. What I am saying is that it's not going to be enough on its own to supplement the starting rotation, given the abundant uncertainty, and that in the event Texas actually finalizes a deal with Webb, we should be careful not to be seduced by the inevitable labeling of Webb's next contract as a "value" signing, a "low-risk, high-reward" signing, or any of the rest of it.
Analysis, Rumors, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (61)
If they spend anymore than $3M or $4M on this guy, I'm going to be very upset.
Woot Woot, I like me some Brandon Webb. I do hope we get him.
Who cares? We lost out on the only 2 guys who would have mattered. Maybe if they sign Pavano I'll be slightly excited but even then meh
I'm excited about this. He's asking for lots of incentives which means he's pretty confident. If he were asking for 4 mil guaranteed, I'd be worried. i.e. Rich Harden....
@d how much do I know about baseball? Brandon Webb has potential to be an amazing sign... Cliff lee wasn't worth the years and frankly wasn't that good while he was here... Greinkie is not proven he can handle any pressure with his social anxiety disorder... Honestly Webb almost makes more since than either of them. As far as paving goes I find it amazing how he had a bounce bac year the same year he would be a free agent
Why would people be upset if they give him 4 guaranteed with incentives? If the money isn't going to go somewhere else, isn't it worth a shot? It's just like giving a big signing bonus to a guy out of college, except you know how good Webb can be and you dont know a thing about the college kids potential.
This would be a helluva signing for the rangers if he can regain some of his cy young form and become a solid pitcher for us
Good low risk/high reward player. Assuming he signs, the Rangers will not be getting the pre-shoulder injury Webb, but a serviceable starter might be in the cards, and that has value, especially in this market.
The upside is so worth the gamble. Get it done, then go look long and hard at Francis.
@Pabloesque - I wouldn't be too upset if I were you, even if it's even more money than you threw out there (now if somehow they gave him like 5 for 50 million, then you should be pissed). The Rangers can easily function with an investment of 5-10 million in Webb, even if he's a complete bust. This kind of player would give the Rangers a possible solid cog in the rotation, and it gives them more flexibility to figure out where they sit by the trade deadline. I also wouldn't be jumping for joy if they sign the guy, but believe me when I say that it's a good thing (even if he's a rehashed version of 2010 Rich Harden).
Stop comparing Harden to Webb, Webb is by far and away a better pitcher. His WAR is almost identical to Lee's. Rangers docs did the surgery, they know his health. This would be a huge signing and could pay more dividends. Win- win in my book.
Actually, if the doctors think his shoulder is fine, $3 million plus incentives sounds pretty good. Not that I know what he's getting. I think the A's gave Ben Sheets much more last year if you are looking for a comp.
I know plenty about baseball. I would much rather have had one of the former Cy Young winners who actually pitched last year and who will pitch more than 4 innings next year
I HEARD that the Rangers wanted to go more than 1 year and Webb was only wanting a 1 year deal... that was the hold up. His thinking probably is... If I recover and pitch well, I don't want to be tied up for a low amount of money for the next 2 or 3 years (which is probably what the Rangers are hoping for, low salary, high incentive based contract for a guy who could lead your rotation).
Go for it. At this point we need to make a splash, and even if he is a #3 starter, 4 mil plus incentives isn't a bad sign. If we truly are out on Beltre then we need to sign Webb and Vlad quickly before they go elsewhere as well.
@JFitz - Was your comment about not comparing Webb to Harden directed at Chris and me? If so, I think it's a bit misplaced. I won't speak for Chris, but I don't bring up Harden's name as a true comp but as a worst-case scenario. There's always a chance he'll get hurt again or just won't ever be even half the pitcher he was before his injuries (Harden). I'm not saying that's what I think will happen, just including it as a possibility. I also indicated that even if he does turn out to be a bust, he's worth the money.
D,
You sound whinny man. Of course everyone would rather have Lee than Webb, just not for what it was going to take in cash and years.
If Webb gets $4 million then Vlad should get $8 million to DH 130 games this season.
This would be a good get. Low-risk/high-reward. Plus Webb has additional interest because the Rangers team Dr. (Meister) did his surgery.
Now we just need to trade for Fausto Carmona (though don't like the low K's, reminds me of Feldman) if we truly have given up on the Matt garza front. Shoot I would even take Parvano at this point just to have an established starter.
The same Fausto Carmona who had one good year in 2007 and an ok year in 2010? What are we giving up in that deal, Feldman?
Joe,
Learn to spell WHINY
He wasn't calling you whiny, he was calling you whinny...
whinny [ˈwɪnɪ]
vb -nies, -nying, -nied (intr)
1. (Life Sciences & Allied Applications / Zoology) (of a horse) to neigh softly or gently
2. to make a sound resembling a neigh, such as a laugh
so quit making horse sounds.
@d yes everyone would rather have an un injured cy young winner over one who has been hurt but for the asking price it's better to sign Webb and see where we stand at the trade deadline.. I'm sorry it was rude of me to insinuate u know nothing about baseball
@ thenamesjordan
Darn you! I just want a SP not named CJ Wilson. Why am I so impatient this offseason. I am actually impatient with all my sports teams this year. I'm still angry at the Thunder for being 19-9 and yet making a trade for a center or legitimate 3pt shooter, but that's for another website and another thread.
Anyways, maybe Webb can be our ACE, or the ALDS Game 2; ALCS Game 1 CJ will show up every game, or Feliz will wow everyone enough to make him a lock for the rotation, or Dutch Oven or Kirkman extremely step up their game. All of these are good possibilities. I just want something that's more of a lock.
@Dave H - not responding to your post. I truly dig your opinions and enjoy your posts - good stuff. It was aimed at the overreactions to Webb earlier in the day. I get the comparisons as they relate to 1yr deals for reclamation projects, but Webb was tier higher than Harden when they were both healthy. It's foolish to link the "type" of signing to the value that these pitchers in question bring to the table. (sorry for any typos - posting from iphone)
I know Jon Daniels likes to take a flyer on players that are high upside, low risk.
But, shoulder injuries.... just not many recover to prior form.
"The Washington Nationals and the Chicago Cubs are also believed to be interested, but a source said that Webb wants to play for the Rangers."
What's up with that?
Guys with shoulder surgery (TJ surgery) can and do come back to have many productive years...how about Tommy John himself? And the procedure is greatly improved over 20 years ago! CJ did a great job for us last season and there is no reason to believe he won't step up and do it again. Lewis is a strikeout guy.......hey folks...........Wilson, Webb, Lewis, Holland, Hunter.
Good point craig, hopefully injuries wont hurt us this year... But we don't know if Webb will sign with us for now, but indications are that he will
At the height of his powers Webb dominated with a violent sinking fastball, produced by an equally violent delivery. After the inevitable injury that violent delivery is gone, never to return. The big question now is whether that violent sinker is also gone. Webb will never be the same pitcher. What remains to be seen is if he can somehow figure out how to retain the same stuff, or reasonably close. The obvious comparable is Kerry Wood. His overwhelming pre-injury stuff was entirely the product of unsustainable delivery mechanics. He never regained anywhere near that level of dominant stuff, but over many years finally figured out how to pitch effectively without it. This could easily be Webb. Anyone wishing to sign Webb expecting to see the bowling ball sinker of 2008 has another thing coming. That pitch is likely gone forever, at least in its former manifestation. What remains will determine Webb's ultimate success. If we sign Webb he will have to be successful here without the anvil sinker of his Arizona days, or at least nothing more than a remnant of it. Can that happen?
Unfortunately if he does regain his past success this year, it will be nothing more than a 1 year audition for another mega stupid contract. That being said, if the money is right it's totally worth it.
@JFitz - yup. While Harden may have had "Ace quality stuff," I think everyone here would expect a true ace to pitch > 200 innings every year. That's one huge check mark for pre-injury Webb and one glaring weakness for Rich Harden.
Craig, this injury is much different than one that would require TJ surgery. TJ deals with elbows and has a high success rate. This is a shoulder issue that does not offer the same favorable odds of a full bounce back. I still think it is worth it to give him an incentive laden contract and hope he pans out.
TJ is an elbow surgery. Elbows are much more likely to come back to full strength or near it.
Webb had shoulder surgery.
I TRUST JD AND HIS GROUP. IF THEY SIGN WEBB I CONSIDER IT A GOOD DEAL!
With all the negativity around this offseason so far, mainly caused by my expectations of Cliffmas all next year, this news is very encouraging, Webb was a very good pitcher before the injury and for a low-cost, high reward player like he is I would love to have him
I wonder if Jeremy Bonderman would be open to a split contract? Hopeful about Webb. I don't think the Rangers will chase Pavano since he is a Type A free agent.
A 1 year deal based on incentives... then if does well... either more high draft picks as compensation or a long term deal here. If he does poorly, just hope the Rangers have room for error like last year with Harden.
Will TEX issue Webb #40 and Harden's locker?
Ok....got my wires crossed between TJ surgery and what Webb had....shoulder surgery. But I do think that we have to add someone to the rotation that could possibly help us. Webb, with a low dollar one year deal could do that, hopefully. Right now we have Wilson and Lewis, both of whom I believe can step back in and do the job. Hunter was helped by a lot of run support last year and then faltered in the post-season, not sure about his overall long term stamina and he hasn't developed that one needed strikeout pitch. Holland, and you can call it gut instinct, I do think has a huge upside and will develop as a starter in 2011. Feldman, well, he had his one year in the sun......so who else do we have that can step in? Oakland has a good young rotation and LAA has some veterans. We definitely have the fire power offensively, but the rotation looks questionable to me at this point. We need a solid rotation to get back to the post-season.......I'd definitely give Webb a shot.
Some people drive depreciated used cars and others drive non-depreciated NEW Cars. Obviously, the Rangers like USED STARS. Just the thought of seeing how far one can go w/o breaking down seems to intrigue. New STARS can, too, be Lemons but in all proabality there isn't as high a chance if one handles it correctly. I've heard it argued each way: Fully Depreciated vs Non-depreciated asset that is highly depreciated as soon as the engine is started. I think it is all in the NEW STAR SMELL. Only thing is, some of these oldies are pricey. You need at least a One Year Warranty against future defects. If it makes it a year then it is smooth sailing...or driving.
The routine posters on here know as little about baseball as anyone I can think of. Good Lord! I bet you all played soccer. The thought that I might be sitting next to one of you closet freaks at a Rangers game is very upsettimg. Oh and i just LOVE the MOM jokes! LMFAO. Stop it! you're killin me! Here's the truth. If the rangers sign Webb and he's good--you will all love the deal. Screw the $$-it's not your money. If he sux like most of you- you will hate it and self loathe even more. GET OVER IT.
I just read tom b's post. GEEEZ- I rest my case.
As I've mentioned a couple of times recently, I really don't care how much money gets spent on the Rangers roster. Just be sure to buy a roster that can produce 90+ wins. I'll leave it up to JD and his crew to determine whether the available talent fits within the budget. With the limited selection out there, Webb can't really be a really bad idea, IMO.
I only buy slightly used 1- and 2-year old low-mile vehicles with remaining factory warranty. Seriously, the reason Webb is generating this type of interest is because fans can see that slotting a true #1 SP ahead of Wilson/Lewis is the path to making the Rangers a favorite to repeat their AL crown. Is there another option out there who has a better chance to do that for Texas AND is genuinely available than Brfandon Webb, however slight the chances of a full recovery are for him?
The #1 pitcher the fans and the Rangers both want will have to be acquired after the break as was done quite well last year. Remeber that Lee guy. It will happen again. The Rangers have enough to win the West. As was last year they will add pieces to go deeper in the playoffs.
Webb is just JD doing his typical shopping at Half Price Books in the bargin bins.
So how much extra are you willing to pay Webb in guaranteed money to get a team option for an additional season if everything goes right? Example: you can have him for 4 million plus incentives for next year or 4 million plus incentives plus a guaranteed 1 million buy out on a 8 million team option for 2012. Is it worth the extra million to potentially get another year out of him if you get best case scenario?
No brainer...sign'em! I know it's a roll of the dice but so was the Colby Lewis signing and moving CJ. Yes, Harden didn't work out too well but 2 out of 3 is solid. However, I believe we still need to make an additional move to the starting rotation. Not a big Pavano fan but there's not a whole lot to choose from at this point. I also think that JD and crew know we have enough to get to the All-Star break/Trade Deadline. I believe we end up trading for a legit #1 guy at that time. Surely, the Phillies are looking to dump some salary with Blanton.
I'm kinda with Dude in Uk. If the Rangers can start the season with a projected 90 win team, I have faith that JD can improve the team a little bit more by the trade deadline. This gives our young minor league talent a little more time to hopefully build their value to the Rangers and their potential trade partners. I'm just not sure there is much value out there now that is significantly better than the Rangers in-house options. Just as well to be shopping for pieces that don't require draft pick compensation.
Speaking of minor league talent, while I'm not sure that it's high end talent, JD and crew have done a good job of quietly rebuilding their minor league depth with the Salty trade and the pickups of Leoux, Tobin, and Tucker. As of now, they still have four picks in the first 60 or so selections of next year's draft as well.