Tomorrow Never Knows, Part 2: Why the Rangers Can Afford To Trade From Depth
"Texas gave [Kunkel] the opportunity to win the starting shortstop position, but he was always thwarted by his hitting stats and obstacles such as Curtis Wilkerson, Scott Fletcher, Fred Manrique, Gary Green, and Jeff Huson."Rather than devote another 1700 words to the players grouped in the quaternary and quinary levels of this particular value exercise (obviously, a package for a Josh Johnson or Zach Greinke sets the bar high, so the value levels I established are specific to that), I’ll just throw out a list of some of the prospects that could not only offer value in a trade, but could jump several tiers in the next calendar year.
LHP Robbie Ross: He could stick in a rotation long-term, but he might prove to be a better fit as a reliever, with a bowling bowl fastball and the makings of a major league slider. If he can find success in Double-A, his value will tick up a bit, although his ceiling isn’t as high as his draft status might suggest. OFP report: Link
RHP Omar Beltre: Lots of versatility with Beltre, who will play much better in the bullpen, but has the arsenal to function in the rotation. He has a plus fastball with some late life that he pairs with a slider and a splitter. In talking with people from other organizations about this article, several mentioned Beltre as a player with value. He should log innings in the Rangers pen next season, and he has the stuff to stick around.
Miguel Velazquez: After reemerging last season as a prospect, Velazquez failed to advance his status in ’10. That said, he still has value, and the tools are very enticing. While not an upper-echelon five-tool talent, he does have all five raw tools, and he still has time to put it together on the field. The clock is ticking, so 2011 is the year it needs to happen. OFP report: Link
Jorge Alfaro: Super young, super raw, and super talented, Alfaro is the player who can make the biggest tier jump in the Rangers system. Because of his high ceiling and his lofty sticker price, the 17 year-old Colombian catcher would make an attractive kicker in any deal. But if he can show some tool-translation on-the-field, Alfaro can launch into top prospect status in short order. OFP report: Link
This could reach Pynchonian levels if I continued, but you get the point. The list is very long, and very promising, and with the exception of Olt, I didn’t even profile some of the more intersting 2010 draftees, like Luke Jackson, Jake Skole, and Cody Buckel. I profiled Jorge Alfaro, but I didn’t profile some of the other high-ceiling Latin Americans in the low-levels of the system, like RHP David Perez or shortstop Hanser Alberto, who will be names to pay close attention to in the coming years. I didn’t profile Chad Bell, Neil Ramirez, Jake Brigham, Randol Rojas, or Tommy Mendonca, or 25 other players that help make up the depth of the system. Again, you get the point. The system might lack a crowded primary and secondary tier grouping, but the overall value of the farm is tied to the depth, and given the abundance of talent contained within, the value will continue to increase, regardless of how many pieces are used as trade collateral. More on that in a minute.
Before I make the case why trading prospects for proven major league talent makes sense for the Rangers, let’s first take a look at the landscape of the 25-man roster, and why the window to compete with the current collection of talent is shrinking. On the surface, the upstart American League Champions appear to have a roster heavy on the side of youth (service time; on-the-field exuberance; Elvis’s sweet smile), with pundits often using that perception to place them in the AL West’s driver seat for the next decade. While a decade of sustainable success is entirely possible, the error in the perception is that the Rangers are a team with a young core of talent, and that the 2010 success is just another step towards their eventual ascension to baseball greatness. I think it’s a stretch to assume either is true.
Without busting out a spreadsheet or making this more complicated than it needs to be, let’s just ask a few straight-forward questions about the Rangers going forward, and see where we stand when the smoke settles.
1) Do you feel confident that 30 year-old CJ Wilson and 31 year-old Colby Lewis can duplicate (or even build upon) their impressive 2010 campaigns and form a one-two punch at the top of the rotation? How confident? Are they really top-of-the-rotation material?
2) If you assume that Kinsler (29), Cruz (30), and Hamilton (29) have already entered their peak performance years, how many years until they start their eventual decline? Is two years overly conservative or realistic?
3) Is there anybody in the farm system not named Scheppers that you think can provide high-impact value to the 25-man roster over the next two seasons?
4) Speaking of youth, how confident are you in the Hunter/Holland duo, and do you think they can solidify the middle of the Rangers rotation in 2011?
5) Given the current landscape of the American League West, do you think the division is more likely to be competitive in 2011?
My answers to the above questions don’t exactly fill me with confidence going into the 2011 season, much less the next decade. The Rangers, as they are presently constructed, have an expiration date; sometime in the next three seasons. But the product could start to spoil before that point, and even with an overly optimistic approach to prospect prognostication, it’s a stretch to assume the Rangers high-impact minor league talent will actualize and provide high-impact major league production in that window. Look, I really like the players in question (Scheppers, Perez, Beltre) and I’m telling you that it will be highly unlikely if one of the prospects near their ceiling in that window, much less all three.
To reintroduce the main theme of the piece: “Tomorrow Never Knows.” A rather profound malapropism from the mind of Ringo Starr, but this is how you have to look at prospects. They are merely abstract dreams that very rarely manifest into reality. They are wonderful things to cultivate, but falling in love with the dream of a player can often limit the range of possibilities at the major league squad. When you’ve had a taste of the spotlight (when the fans have had a taste of the spotlight), and you have a core of talent that puts you on the cusp of contention, you have to aggressively maximize the potential of the opportunity.
Here’s the plan: Every player in baseball has a price. Not every price is affordable, or even remotely reasonable, but the price exists, nonetheless. My point is, a player doesn’t have to be “on-the-block” to be a target, and if the Rangers are serious about acquiring a top of the rotation pitcher (relative, of course), said player can acquired. I’m not advocating for a foolish move; rather, suggesting if the Rangers wanted to make a splash, the requisite water resides in their system. Obviously, teams aren’t lining up to sell their future, so the opportunity would have to embrace both parties involved.
What if the Rays decided to trade Price? Not suggesting they are, but what if their ears were open? What if the Marlins were dead-set on building around Johnson, but were willing to listen to a proposal? Would you cash-in for a player like that? Would you be willing to trade the all impact prospects of the future to maximize the present? This is academic, but it proposes an interesting question: Are you willing to do whatever it takes to win now?
Here’s the reality: The Rangers could bring in a player of the Garza ilk; a mid-rotation arm that might cost a bit too much in prospect treasure, but gives you quality at the major league level. Given the above thesis, is it fair to say that acquiring a mid-rotation starter (conceptual at this point, but just go with it), regardless of the inflated price, gives the Rangers a better opportunity to compete in the aforementioned two-three year window? The answer is yes. But will it hurt the farm? “The Rangers can’t throw away the future.” I disagree. Here’s why.
This is simple. The Rangers obviously have a competent scouting team in place. They have an established presence in Latin America (read: flags in the ground). They have a new ownership group in place that is willing to spend for talent. That’s a recipe for a sustainable farm system. Period. The Rangers system is primarily built on depth, but a sizeable percentage of that depth consists of high-quality talent. This is an important fact to remember. Players that currently reside in the quaternary column could easily emerge at a higher tier as their development continues. High-impact prospects like Alfaro or Sardinas could take steps forward and start to actualize. With a penchant for up-the-middle talent, the Rangers continue to acquire players with lofty projections and enticing trade values.
Basically, the pipeline is full, and will remain full going forward (the Rangers have excellent position in the deep 2011 draft, and an established relationship with the equally strong July 2nd market). The days of penny-pinching are over. Do you really think the current Rangers ownership would allow a talent like Purke to slip away? It’s a new day. Treat it accordingly. Do whatever it takes to win now. The farm will survive.
Prospects, Rangers Prospect Analysis, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (43)
Very interesting thought process here Jason. I think your compelling argument has swayed me. Although, at the same time, I highly doubt that JD & Co are not burning up the phones right now.
Jason, excellent article and i couldn't agree more.. The rangers will continue to stock the farm system for years to come, and guys in know we have plenty of depth in the rotation.. But what if C.J has a Failedman year? what if Lewis is average? The rangers need a true ace and currently dont have one... This year was a helluva ride, but i dont know if it will happen this year.. With that said, I am disappointed the way the front office has laid back this offseason except making an aggresive offer at Lee.. I wish the rangers the best this season but i see it playing out 1. Angers 2. Oak 3. Texas 3. Mariners
And what about vladdy and his 115 rbi? if we dont resign him who will take his production?
I have no trouble watching the Rangers trade Perez. I still have a hard time thinking a deal with Perez+Scheppers is a good idea or (Holland+Scheppers or Holland+Perez), since a contribution of some sort over the next 2-3 years by at least one of those three seems likely.
A Scheppers+Perez duo at a lower-level of development, I would be fine with that type of trade, if the Rangers had such a duo. Maybe David Perez and Victor Payano will emerge as such a duo in the next two years and maybe they'll be on the doorstep of AA at a time when the Rangers are in position to make an impact trade. Yeah. I would send them packing.
I'm with you on moving prospects. It gets murkier when ML-ready talent is put into the mix, though.
@El Magico - What kind of package would you be willing to surrender for Garza? How aboout Josh Johnson?
Dave: To acquire Johnson, I would be willing to offer a prospect package consisting of whatever the Marlins wanted. Not sure on Garza, but the system could stomach trading Scheppers+ for him.
Agree that for Johnson, you trade Perez, Holland, Scheppers and Beltre, if necessary. If he can be got, you just get him.
1.) I expect some regression from CJ and Colby. CJ's workload last year bothers me.
2.) Nellie's and Josh's calendar age doesn't match up with thier baseball experience. They are peaking now and probably have 2-3 years until the slow slide begins. Ian, I think, has peaked and will remain inconsistent from year-to-year.
3.) The problem with the farm system is that there is few impact prospects at the higher levels. Scheppers is it. Even that will be tempered a bit because he will be in the pen.
4.) Hunter is what he is. I don't expect much improvement from him. Holland had better claim his roto spot this year and remain healthy or it is a setback for the org.
5.) The division will be a 3 team race in 2011. But each of the contenders have thier warts.
My only question on Greinke is I could see the Royals having asked for something like Andrus, Borbon, and then two prospects also.
U know I havent really thought about it that way, but I dont think Grienke was the right guy. Grienke to me is very overrated and he is not the ace everyone keeps calling him, he is a guy that had one good year followed by a mediocre year. I dont think he can pitch under pressure and I know that is debateable. Now if Josh Johnson can be had I tell Florida to pick any 4 players from our farm they want and do the deal. That guy is an absolute beast. Garza is a different story also he is competitive guy andd he has done it in the postseason, but again it will be a reasonable deal or I tell them no. Middle of the rotation guys arent hard to come by, I would rather see Holland and get a legitimate run as a starter rather give up our core prospects or multiple core prospects for a maybe he be good guy. I dont want to see another John Danks trade or Adrian Gonzalez trade. I trust JD and Thad and Nolan and Chuck they will do what is best. We need to be patient and see what they do. It isnt panic time and they might have to wait and see what happens during the season before making a splash, I just dont want them to get impatient and do something harmful to the team long term for an average pitcher a.k.a. Zack Grienke
I think the Rangers should look to trade some guys from the major league team coming up on their free agent years. Ian Kinsler would be the first he is so far freakin overrated and it would be the best time to get something for him.
@ El Magico:
What about for a Santana + David Wright package?
Perez, Scheppers, Beltre, Profar, Erlin, Ross, and Michael Young?
I have a funny feeling the Mets may be willing to tear down and start over.
"Do whatever it takes to win now. The farm will survive."
Thank you...this is one of the very best articles I've ever seen on BBTIA .
Jeff: "he is a guy that had one good year"
Greinke has had three above-averages seasons in the last four years, with one of those seasons being ridiculously above-average. You are selling him short. Calling him an "average pitcher" makes me disregard the rest of your opinions.
Scooby: The Mets might be ready to start over, but Wright is a piece to build around, so I doubt they want to trade him, especially without receiving young major league talent in return.Santana will have more value come July, but he is a name worth thinking about, especially if he returns from surgery with his stuff intact.
Thanks for responding El Magico; you're the best. As far as Garza's concerned if talks started with Scheppers, Velazquez, and Ross, I'm all in. If we'd have to let go of Holland or Perez, I just don't think he's worth it. I'd rather roll the dice and see if Brandon Webb can get back his magic or see what's available at the trade deadline.
1. Yes I am confident that CJ and Colby will do fine. In TORP are you asking if they are in the top 30 starting pitchers? In that case yes for CJ and if not for Colby it's close..
2. Josh and Nellie will be consistent for the next 4 years, Ian who knows where he's gonna be from year to year much less in 3 or 4.
3. That's your job all I know is what you guys and Newburg report. The closest Ranger farm club is now 550 miles away.
4. Holland has the stuff when he's on, I think he will put it together this year. Hunter all he does is win games. I know his stats aren't pretty (at least his geek stats) but it's about winning not who has the best FIP or WAR. There is the notion around here that he isn't even a good #4 if so it should be pretty easy to name 100 starting pitchers that are better than him. Plus I hope they take a chance on Webb. CJ, Colby, Webb, Hunter and Holland we wont have the rock star type like Doc, CC, Timmy or King Felix but it would be one of the strongest from top to bottom.
5. Of course odds are it will be closer, we did win by 9. I think as it stands now Rangers by 5 over the A's.
OMG, is this 2 articles written in the same day that I totally agree with... YUP! Thank you Mr. Parks, you breathed logic into an illogical bunch. I can't wait until there's 40 or 50 comments on here tonight so I can tally up the names of suck ups that have a sudden change of heart in that the future is now. It will be a long list... guaranteed.
BTW - I do NOT think CJ and Colby can anchor the rotation. It would be a HUGE gamble to go into 2011 with them as your TORPs. It may very well work... but it could also be a colossal failure and I think JD knows this...
Dream Headline May 1st, 2011 - "After averaging 20 runs per game through April, Theo Epstein came to the conclusion last night that he no longer needs a TORP and has agreed to trade Jon Lester to the Rangers for Michael Young, who will presumably take the role of hot dog and beer vendor."
@Scooby - you said "What about for a Santana + David Wright package? Perez, Scheppers, Beltre, Profar, Erlin, Ross, and Michael Young?"
Were you serious about this trade... or just joking around?
AND YOU CALL ME OVER THE TOP?
An amazing piece of work, Professor, though I'd go with Gaddis.
Question for you (and cross-posted at LSB): you're talking here about cashing in with the prospects. How do you feel about free agency? Did you think the Rangers should've been in high and hard on Victor Martinez or Adam Dunn? What about Adrian Beltre? Should they have offered Lee a seventh year?
In other words, given the window, do/should the Rangers have financial wherewithal to commit that sort of money and time for those sorts of players?
@ Pablo:
Get me Santana AND Wright, and we're talking a whole different ballgame.
A lot to chew on here. First of all, I would say that you don't make a stupid deal just because you can.
1) Let me flip this question - do you feel better about CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis this year than you did about Rich Harden and Scott Feldman at the beginning of last year? My answer is yes. We won the AL West last year. The A's have changed the landscape a little bit, but the Rangers are still a good team.
2) I think it's too soon to talk about Kinsler, Hamilton's, and Cruz's eventual decline. I predict that one to all three of them will be gone in three years for different reasons.
3) I think Kirkman has a shot. I also think there is someone out there we are not even thinking about that has a shot. Hey, tomorrow never knows, right?
4) Hunter and Holland have a good shot. Look around at the 3-4 starters on other teams. I guess that makes me an optimist on this point.
5) You mean more competitive than last year? Umm, I say about the same.
I have a lot of faith in JD and his crew. They have shown that they will trade minor league talent for the right deal at the right time. But one of the old truisms in baseball is that you never have enough pitching, and I believe the Rangers are going to be very careful when it comes to dealing thier minor league pitching prospects, especially if they feel a player that's worth 50 cents today will be worth a dollar tomorrow, figuratively speaking.
I agree with Jason that with the team contructed as it is currently, the Rangers window is about three years. However, the only constant is change and this team will look much different in three years than it does today.
Jason -
You were too hard on poor Jeff. Hindman wasn't super high on Greinke either. I assume you wouldn't disregard his opinion? I know I wouldn't. Or Jeff's. It's fun being part of a community. Let's try to respect everyone, even if you don't agree with them.
I suggested a trade for Santana and Wright in reponse to Matches' Sunday questions. I am glad to see that the idea has traction with Scooby.
The 2011 Mets have little payroll flexibility to improve via Free-Agency and/or trade, nor has little will, with the strengthening of the Phillie rotation and the Atlanta offense this winter. The Mets will be hard pressed to compete for the NL East crown the next three years.
Interestingly, Santana is signed through 2013 at $72 million, roughly the cost per year equivalent to Cliff Lee. David Wright is signed through 2013 at $45 million. The Mets may consider rebuilding by trading the two stars and lessen the ire of the fanbase by partnering with an AL team.
Sending Young to the Mets would offset most of Wright's contact. The Rangers, following the rationale established by Jason Parks in this article, could justify trading a package of Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers, Engle Beltre, and Jurickson Profar. The Rangers would be a favorite to win the AL pennant for the 2011-2013 term and use the time to rebuild the farm system.
I am generally in favor of continuing JD's plan of internal improvements, believing that the Rangers have not reached their collective talent peak. However, should the Rangers "sell the farm", go big. Santana and Wright fit that call.
Thanks for the life-lesson, John in Clearwater. It's called snark.
Agree whole heartedly with this Jason, thanks for posting this. Even as we graduate and or deal our top talent, the depth of the farm system also allows us to see guys bloom out of it into rising stars and top prospects. There are so many pitchers at the lower levels that could really take a step up, its just impossible to guess exactly who will or could.
Hmmm, Jeff Kunkel. Perhaps the "dream" of Kunkel's abilities, did not quite match the performance...at all (Although the final verdict is not in...Chris Davis' and Salt... pics might belong there, too)? An interesting choice. Surely a coincidence?
Here's a name that I haven't heard thrown around as a prospect that we could deal. Barret Loux. We just picked him up. I guess his stock won't rise until he proves that he can pitch without getting injured. I'm just throwing that out there.
Probably the only baseball column to ever use the word "Pynchonian". My compliments.
I'm only in favor of trading prospects for solid major league talent that translates to wins on the field. If Santana even pitches in 2011, taking on that salary is the lion share of the committment on that deal. Alderson may be where JD was in 2007 with regard to his team, but Santana isn't a comparable to Tex because of that injury. But to part with top prospects AND take on that salary? For a guy coming off shoulder surgery? I don't think so.
For those of you that don't get Newberg's Trot Coffey reports, he just posted that the Angels bowed out on Beltre after their alleged 5yr/$70M was refused.
I have a question about Beltre's contract expectations; let me preface my question by saying that I am absolutely NOT in favor of the Rangers signing him. I think he's a bad guy that only turns it on in contract years. HOWEVER, why is a $14M per year deal that out of the question? Shouldn't he be at least somewhat close to what Werth and Crawford got in terms of annual salary (not in years/total $$)? After seeing what guys like Konerko and Dunn received, he should be looking at a minimum of $16M or $17M per year... right?
Again, I hate the guy and do NOT ever want to see him in a Rangers uniform. I'm just curious why he's only getting offers in the $12.5M- $14M neighborhood. Is it because the rest of the league knows what we know in that he turns it up only when money's on the table?
Last thing - I would love to see the BBTiA writers do a piece anaylyzing each team's TORP(s) and what it would take to pry said pitcher(s) away via trade.
pablo, I don't think an analysis of what it would take to pry away each club's top pitcher much matters at this point...the Rangers weren't willing to give the price needed for the one who was definitely available. What makes you think they will pay the price for one who isn't, when Greinke was clearly cheaper than any of those guys?
"I think he's a bad guy" "... I hate the guy and do NOT ever want to see him in a Rangers uniform."
Interesting opinions. What are they based on?
Maybe the Angels are out because Beltre already has a higher offer in hand? Just a thought. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
@rbt - good point. I was just curious to see if they could identify potential trade partners. in other words, I was too lazy to look the info up myself so I thought I'd ask them to do it.
@Prof Parks - you know, as I was typing that out I remembered that last off season I made a similar comment about Vladdy being a bad guy in the clubhouse. I don't know why I thought it... or where I heard it... but someone (I think it was Dave H) on here correctly set me straight.
I came to the conclusion Beltre's a bad person because it sure seems the guy only plays for his next contract... which, of course we don't even know is true... but it sure looks like it... so I ran with it. I shouldn't have done so... my apologies!
I do hate him though... perhaps because of him playing for the Mariners my disdain grew and eventually festered into full blown hate.
Seems to me, any pitcher, is not guaranteed to be a success in the coming year, no matter what price his agent can grab in either money or prospects. Just ask Seattle. I think Webb is maybe another Harden or could be an ACE. Seems to be worth a gamble. To me, the BIG thing Nolen and JD and Greenberg are sweating is how to keep the new fans from leaving in droves like they arrived. The player that could prevent that is worth whatever he askes. I'm not sure Lee was it.
Jason, I like the way you think and write.
IT'S TIME TO LOAD UP AND GO GET JOHNSON OR FELIX! WE CAN GET A MIDDLE OF THE ROTATION GUY ANY TIME AND PROBABLY HAVE ONE OR TWO NOW IN OUR SYSTEM THAT WE CAN BRING UP AND LET THEM GET STARTED IN THE "BIG SHOW." I BELEIVE IN JD, NOLAN, CHUCK, AND THE REST OF THE GUYS AND THEY HAVE A GOOD PLAN. IT MAY BE START THE SEASON WITH WHAT WE HAVE AND TRADE FOR A # 1 GUY BEFORE THE TRADE DEADLINE IN JULY, JUST LIKE WE DID THIS YEAR. THAT SHOULD WORK ALSO.
I'm not going to argue that Adrian Beltre is the best or anything; however, I'll try to compare him to Michael Young. So, here's some career numbers:
BB%: MY-6.7, AB-6.9
K%: MY-16.3, AB-17.0
BB/K: MY-.45, AB-.44
wOBA: MY-.346, AB-.339
OPS: MY-.795, AB-.791
WAR: MY-25.6, AB-50.8
WAR/150 games: MY-2.546, AB-4.153
Both players have four seasons of OPS >.800, but Young never entered a "contract year," so we don't claim that he only performs when his money is on the line. Yes, Young has been more consistent with his lows not dipping as far down, but his highs fall short too. With the exception of the 2010 season, Michael Young has consistently played in better hitting environments than Adrian Beltre.
To make it as hard as possible on Beltre, let's call 2004 and 2010 at least partial flukes for Adrian Beltre. We'll assume that his true talent level as a hitter is ~.775 OPS and Michael Young's is actually ~.800. Which player has more value then? I'll still argue that Beltre has significantly more value. He's an enormous upgrade with the glove. Just spend some time watching both of them field the ball, then talk to some scouts, and you'll probably see just how big the gap is. Just think of it this way: Having Beltre at 3B would also upgrade Michael Young's value by taking his defensive black hole out of the picture.
Having said all of that, I just don't know if I'm comfortable paying Beltre >12 million a year.
Great insights, as always, El Magico.
Since big ballers Simpson and Davis have greenlighted a big ol cash infusion, and we unfortunately can't shower it down on Cliffton P. Lee, I'd like to see us overpay prodigiously in the LA market. Why not snap up every 16 yr old badass in the DR, Venezuela, and such? Pay them 900K when they're worth 6, 4 when they're worth 2, etc., so that we essentially buy 3 or 4 extra 1st/supp rd picks?
Seems like you'd get way more bang for your buck, and as the great Mr. Greenberg said, we aren't wielding any peashooters these days, either.
What say you?
Brian: Given the amount of space in the DSL and in the complex league, you can only house so many raw 16 year-olds. I'm all for acquiring talent, but development requires instruction, playing time, etc, and you can't achieve that with three full squads of 16 year-olds on one field.
Jason -
If we had signed Matthew Purke, would teams be asking about him more than Martin Perez? In my mind, this was the one great loss of the team being run by MLB.
Purke is a serious talent, but Perez is as well, and he's closer to actualization. Tough call. Depends on how Purke translates to pro ball.
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i don't get why we haven't traded for garza yet. How many starting pitchers have averaged over 200 innings a year for the last 3 years with a era below 4? and doing it in the al east. he has dominant stuff and nolan will make him even better. the rays have to blow up their roster because of the division they play in and all the good players they lost. we should be excited to get a guy like that for 3 years. it fits in well with the rest of our roster and he has been even more dominant in the post-season. isn't that part of why we got cliff? well, we would have this guy for 3 years instead of 3 months. what would we have to give up? profar, perez, holland? that is less then what the royals got and you can argue that garza is more valuable with postseason success and extra year of control. what am i missing?
Are the Rangers finished dealing until spring training or should we expect more JD stealth activity in regards to a pitcher?