The Winter Of Our Discontent
It's December 20th, and the townspeople are restless. Justifiably so, in fact. You don't expect a franchise coming off a World Series appearance with abundant payroll space -- which even the skeptics can agree is above and beyond $20 million -- to roll into Christmas week having engaged in so little resembling substantive hot-stove activity, and having acquired even less of what might objectively be considered roster upgrades. You could see it going wrong, as Josh Garoon did almost exactly one month ago to the day, but you certainly didn't expect it, and you really didn't want to think about it.
Now, to be clear, "wrong" is a very relative term, and only a few of Josh's worst-case scenario prognostications have actualized to this point, but there are two principal off-season fears with which every baseball fan is acquainted: (a) gross overpayment in dollars or trade assets for a roster upgrade, or (b) doing nothing, or doing so little that the net effects are practically negligible. Pick your poison. A team in the Rangers' competitive/financial position is much better suited to incur the risks associated with the former scenario, and yet it's the latter scenario that's presently unfolding, with one big name after the next flying off the board and contributing to this underlying sense of frustration and despair.
But should this frustration be directed in its entirety towards the front office responsible for the Rangers' lack of activity to date? No. In fact, the two greatest obstacles to this point have been neither a lack of money nor a lack of quality trade assets, but rather prudence and circumstance. Cliff Lee wanted a guaranteed seven-year commitment from Texas in order for him to shun Philadelphia -- a demand which the Rangers smartly rejected. In the curious case of Zach Greinke, Dayton Moore's motives -- that is, to acquire major league-ready positional talent, and to ship Greinke out of the American League -- proved a significant impediment to any prospect of agreement with Texas.
And in keeping in line with the prudence theme, one can reasonably see how Texas wouldn't want to sign Carl Crawford ($142 million), or Adam Dunn ($56 million), or Victor Martinez ($50 million), or Paul Konerko ($37.5 million). I'll personally be shocked if even two of the four generate the requsite value to justify their deals. This is where an interesting bit of cognitive dissonance appears to have set in -- the majority still desperately craves a big-sized (or even medium-sized) splash, but only if the price is right, which is still damn near impossible in this market. This isn't a have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too-type situation, and as that realization has set in, so has the frustration -- either overpay, or walk away empty-handed.
From a personal standpoint, the most worrisome eventuality goes something like the rest of Josh's worst-case scenario plan -- Texas throws some money at Brandon Webb and Vladimir Guerrero and calls it an off-season, while Anaheim signs Adrian Beltre. One could at least manage to tolerate this if it also comprised the acquisition of a mid-rotation starter, but history has taught us just how often pitchers returning from injury-induced missed seasons end up paying off (not very often), and signing that sort of pitcher, regardless of pedigree, should be more of a complementary addition than a hot-stove season highlight.
That season may not yet be over, but that glimmer of hope doesn't alter the reality that it's December 20th, the townspeople are restless, and they don't quite know what to do with themselves.
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (51)
OK what about a surprise out of Japan? What type of pitcher can they pull out of that market?
Don't think I didn't notice you throwing in some social psychology there. Cognitive Dissonance Theory - very clever indeed!
Truple down on the injured pitchers: Webb AND Francis AND Chris Young. Hit on one, it's alright. Hit on 2, and you've had a good offseason.
No Vlad. Let Murph play full time. Get a 5th OF for cheap. Wash will bat Vlad 5th, which is a horrible mistake.
Correction, Scooby:
Wash will bat Vlad 4th, which is even worse.
Webb and Young are good gambles, I agree with Scooby Dude. Hopefully, they would be low-cost gambles as well. I also agree that it is better to give Murphy more chances at DH than it would be to sign Vlad again. Vlad is just too one-dimensional. Finally, I like that the Rangers invited Endy Chavez to spring training. I'll never forget the super catch that guy made with the Mets a few years back. One of the greatest plays ever, no kidding. Kind of rambling here, but since I live in the Austin area, I am really looking forward to the Round Rock Express games next season - they are now the Rangers Triple-A club. That's a nice little stadium and it was fun even when the teams weren't very good because the Astros system just didn't have much. But now I get to see future Ranger stars there.
You have to overpay for FAs. Sign Beltre, move MY to DH/1B/back up IF. Add another RP or two and move Feliz to the roto.
I'm with Scooby Dude
No Vlad. Let Murph play full time. Get a 5th OF for cheap. Wash will bat Vlad 5th, which is a horrible mistake. yes yes yes. very bad, but Wash is so stubborn about "vets".
Garza is an upgrade for us, and I like Beltre over MY...
AND dont let the Yanks get King Felix....
@ Scooby Dude
I agree with you to an extent. Take a chance one ONE inured pitcher, but not three. Hopefully you make the right call and get a good pitcher, but taking a chance on 3 is just too risky. See Rich Harden.
This has been a very disappointing offseason. But it's not like we didn't try. Cliff Lee burned us. We didn't even try to sign anyone else until that happened, which made us lose out on quite a few free agents (I don't care how much Daniels denies it).
So here's our new perspective. We get what we can this offseason and then we wait. Yu Darvish may be coming over next season. We'll probably get into another bidding war with NY for him. And who knows what other free agents will be out there/possibility of trades during the season. If we are going to trade, why make it for Matt Garza right now? We would showing our desperation. This team (without Lee) would have made the playoffs last year. So get your small pieces and wait for a major in-season trade or get a big fish in free agency next year.
We have a good team. We will survive with what we've got.
I'm in no hurry for the Rangers to make a move. They did upgrade the catching position in my eyes, and that's pretty good. They went dumb with Cliffy and he still didn't sign. There's a saying that a fool and his money are soon parted, and save for Cliffy, the Rangers won't play the fool so far. I'm more than fine with the Rangers hanging on to their prospects. They have to be the currency of the Rangers, since there is a real hesitance of players to come here on their own. Holland, Kirkman, Beltre, Perez, Hunter - it would be nice to see those players showing up in Ranger uniforms come spring training.
Is there a team that might be looking to shed salary in a salary dump type deal?? I'm thinking since we have so much payroll space as currently constructed and aren't looking like we're going to add any costly pieces this offseason why not target someones aging overpaid trash? It would be a move similar to Baltimore's side of the Millwood trade last offseason (except hopefully we'd find a better target than Millwood). We could take on the whole salary of someone on the books for this year and next, I'm thinking someone with 2 years 20 million left that is worth more like 2 years and 6 million. Then we add some fluff like nippert and get a nice piece in exchange for taking on the bloated contract. We could end up getting an overpaid back of the rotation type (which we could use to eat up innings as our 5th starter) and maybe a couple lottery ticket prospects or a nice young player that if nothing else add to our ammunition for any possible mid-season trades.
I like the way the Rangers have played it this off-season. They have a roster that went to the WS so why just throw a bunch money at people who have some serious question marks (age? or only playing when payday comes up, etc)... I like the way they are patiently looking for solid value for next year and beyond.
We will not only survive, we could possibly have a better year than last.
Look at our pitching depth people.
CJ, Colby, Tommy, Ogando, Feliz, Holland, Kirkman, Feldman, Harrison
These are quality options. Kirkman pitched great last year, Ogando could be a good option, Feliz too. And who knows?, Maybe Holland will finally break through. There is also the possibility that Feldman or Harrison could contribute, but those are more distant possibles.
Three of those guys are proven guys who will likely pitch well. Feliz, Ogando, and Holland have great stuff, and Kirkman achieved last year out of the bullpen as well.
On the offense side of things and behind the plate we are getting upgrades in Moreland and Yorvit which is no small thing.
JD is not making desperate deals because he is dealing from a position of strength. Of course it would be nice to add a proven middle of the rotation started or an ace but not at any price considering our pitching depth.
john in clearwater: Maybe the Yankees would like to get rid of AJ? Other than that, salary dumps will become more apparent at the trade deadline. KC just made its salary dump in getting rid of Yuni in the Greinke deal.
If there's a trade-target pitcher that hasn't been discussed ad nauseum, it might be Soria, but he's going to get a lot of ink now that Greinke has been traded and Nolasco has signed an extension. It might be a creative move to trade for him and move him to the rotation, but I think we've seen that Moore will put a premium on trades with AL teams. So, that seems highly unlikely.
So, this offseason has been as much a circumstance-driven competition as the playoffs, and I agree with the end assessment here... I don't know how to feel about what has transpired. Most of the time it doesn't bother me, but then I remember the Halos traded for Dan Haren, and they have the biggest offer on the table for Beltre.
The Rangers can't afford to sign Beltre with the main purpose being to keep him away from the Angels. He has to fit, and the fit is a bit awkward with a 5 year contract.
I think I need to hear some stories about how Holland is settling into the adjustments he made in the post season and is on track for contributing to the rotation this year. Or maybe one on how David Perez is looking very much like he will lead the Spokane rotation. Or maybe one on how Borbon is focusing on upping his BB%.
I will say the recent Scheppers story by Cole cheered me up a bit.
oops. My john in clearwater comment was intended for Jake.
I had a fanpost on lonestarball polling folks over there if they could imagine a scenario that would justify sending Elvis to KC for Greinke. Close to 80% think not.
Does everyone here feel the same way?
Sorry, the Royals asking for Tiny E is pure speculation (unless JD's leaked that to the usual sources that carry the water for him) and I'm not letting JD off the hook for not getting this done.
Maybe our FO eventually does something to improve the team in our most important off-season ever but to date, their performance this off-season has been extremely disappointing.
The old axiom of baseball success is, "Strength up the middle." With elvis and Kins plus Hamilton the Rangers have that. The newest addition at catcher seems to improve the model even more.
The Rangers will face a vastly different and stronger interleague schedule with Atlanta, Philly and the Mets plus the always scheduled Houston team. There won't be the June streak like last year that launched Rangers success. This could prove to be a very difficult season of discontent. You also have to wonder about the new batting coach and will he do some 'Wild Weasel" move like 'Toe Tapping' that screws everyone up.
The Angels got Kazmir/Haren during the season, while both were having down years. So we still have chances to get pitching that can make an impact, even if they don't seem to be on the radar now.
And YES, rooster, everyone who has ever seen or heard of Elvis (Rangers fans or not) would agree that you don't trade this dude! I think 80% might be low, but the hype is high, so a few might disagree.
The only way I could see justifying sending Elvis away is if the team is convinced second half Elvis (not including playoffs) is what we are going to get from him moving forward. If he is not going to display any power, and his obp prowess is not going to be as awesome as it was during the beginning of last year than losing him may not hurt as much on the field as it would emotionally. I think we all see the fun-loving likable kid and assume that he is only going to get better (which I think he will) so we say no way I'm trading that guy. But if the talent evaluators think he has peaked and will only be a stud fielder with a sub-par bat then trading him for Greinke might have been a smart move. So while no there is no way I woulda included him in pretty much any deal, if JD woulda done it I probably would have trusted that he was doing so for a reason.
Doesn't matter if Andrus could have been justified; based on what KC wanted and got in return for Greinke he would've have to been included. Jamey Newberg's take is pretty interesting in that a Rangers package would have included minor leaguers who would be hitting arbitration and free agency with the Royals at the same time as a bunch of players they already have - and that wouldn't be good for the team.
While I would have loved to get Greinke and actually wouldn't have minded including Elvis, it appears that we didn't match up as well as we thought we did. They said they wanted major-league ready talent and they got it. I said elsewhere that the equivalent Rangers package would be Elvis, Beltre, Scheppers, and Perez or Erlin (Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America both said the same), but there's only one major-leaguer there. The Royals wound up with three MLers instead. I wonder if Andrus, Holland, Borbon, and Scheppers would have worked...guess we'll never know.
Victor Martinez is going to be the signing we regret the most this offseason. Reasonable years and money. And no reason we couldn't have absorbed it with out supposed new "$90 million budget."
I agree we don't want to grossly overpay for anybody, or mortgage our future. But you still need to build a roster capable of 90+ wins, correct? If it cost $200M annually, do you pull the trigger? Of course not, but what about $150M? $130M? Is the answer still 'No" if you realize that by standing firm on the absolute need for good value for your spent dollars, you're much more likely to win 70-something games than 90-something? Not that I believe that's really the case at the moment, but there are some real question marks with the 2011 roster as it's probably going to be constructed.
I think if it costs $70M to sign Beltre over 5 yrs, at this point you have to be QUICKLY doing some calculations of how many WAR does he add, and what's the season going to turn out to be if Vlad falls flat on his face? What if Moreland can't handle his role? There aren't really any more available options that can be a true bet-hedger for those two scenarios than signing Beltre at this late stage, is there? Can you convince yourself that Young can slide over to 1B without too much difficulty, and produce a couple of WAR? Is Beltre's defensive upgrade valued enough that you can handle a fairly significant regression in his offensive output? I think it does, and I think he probably adds 3-5 wins to our 2011 season. With him, we can win right at 90 games; without him it may be closer to 80 than 90. This is a deal that needs to get done.
Michael Hodson: I also feel like Victor Martinez didn't get much above his value, if at all. The contract he signed seems doable, but I have no clue for how much more than Detroit the Rangers would've had to have offered to get him to come here.
In regards to Elvis, I think some have misunderstood what my intent was here. I'm not responding to any rumored deals out there. I'm simply saying that as far as ML-ready talent goes, the Rangers best chip is Elvis Andrus. I don't know if that would've been enough. I don't care. I just want to hear how people think through whether or not to offer Elvis.
My thinking is this....
Typically, the discussion here is based around WAR, and the discussion last year was over and over about the value of incremental WAR increases in tight races. At the base of my thinking about Elvis versus Greinke, let's start with WAR...
IF Elvis is a .370 OBP guy, his offense statistical profile looks a lot like Ichiro -- moderately high OBP, relatively low SLG, relatively high SB -- and that at his position is probably a 4-5 WAR. This is an optimistic projection in that it requires a significant amount of maturity in the consistency of his game.
Greinke has been 5+ WAR the past two seasons, and it's not an optimistic thought to think he will post that this year and next.
What is interesting to me is that this 1 WAR gap per season based on an optimistic projection is not a topic of discussion on BBTIA, when last year thousands of words were spent on tenths of a WAR.
Is it simply the thought that Elvis will have two years of contribution beyond Greinke at a much lower salary?
Or, is it that people believe there is some level of unquantifiable benefit stemming from Elvis that is equivalent to bridging the 1-2 WAR gap?
The only hesitation I have to trading Elvis for Greinke is this:
there are very few players with good SS defense who can also hit on top of the lineup. By moving Elvis, you really have to get two players to replace him --- one a good SS glove (which can be had) and another to hit at the top of the lineup (which is not easy to find and would necessitate moving Kinsler, perhaps, to the leadoff spot).
Let me be clear.... Elvis' defense is replaceable on the FA market right now. Elvis is not Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel. And, remember, Omar wasn't Omar until 5 or 6 years into his career. Elvis is a good glove, but his defense likely won't peak until beyond the next 2-3 years. It's really his projection on offense that makes the question of trading him for Greinke even worth the discussion.
from Jake: "But if the talent evaluators think he has peaked and will only be a stud fielder with a sub-par bat then trading him for Greinke might have been a smart move."
See, this is why I think the Royals fumbled this trade. Escobar appears to be heading down the path of stud fielder with sub-par bat. Does an organization value defense so much that it would trade a Cy Young candidate for it? I don't think that's wise at all. Defense, until the Rays clearly demonstrated its value in 2008, was an underrated way to beat most of the league while having a smaller budget. Once you start trading Cy Young types and feel satisfied that the best attribute in return was defense, then I think it's pretty easy to see it no longer has that value.
If Greineke wants to be on a winner there is a good chance his career with the Bucks will be limited. The Rangers may yet get Greineke at the break.
Jon: So, it's better to preserve the future possibility of having BOTH Greinke and Elvis than to completely throw away that possibility.
Yeah. That's a thought process used often in economics -- real options I think is what they call it. Basically, it considers the value of losing a possible future outcome.
In this case, you lose the possibility of a 5 WAR gain in order to get a current 1 WAR gain. To have the same value over time (roughly) -- that is, to preserve the possibility of a 5 WAR gain in the future -- Greinke would have to be a 10 WAR player and Elvis would have to improve almost none from this season. That scenario is certainly seems less likely than the Brewers falling out of contention.
Maybe my name gives my response away, but no way in hell I would ever trade Elvis for Greinke. Throw out all of the metrics you want, but Greinke had a 4.17 ERA last year. He is a very good starter, but we have the 2nd best shortstop in the game on our team and you all want to give him away for that? Not to mention that you only get Greinke and his 4.17 ERA and social anxiety every 5th day, while Elvis is making all of the pitchers better each game with his glove. Andrus is at least in the conversation of being like Ozzie or Omar and he's only going to improve. His range is unbelieveable and he's still maturing with the bat, but had a pretty solid season last year. Defense gets overlooked in this era of fantasy baseball numbers, but Elvis is the kind of guy that makes an entire team better. We are lucky to have him and if we can't sign him someday and he becomes the Yankees next shortstop you all are going to realize how valuable he really is. Okay, I need to get back to my meditation and chanting session around my Elvis statute now.
Team is still in great shape. Make a run then ACQUIRE what you really NEED at the deadline. We have kept our chess pieces plus with picks coming and saved money the skies the limit!!!
If Vlad is brought back he must bat 5th and I really like Cruz 3rd. Andrus, Kinsler, Cruz, Hamilton and then Vlad would make me happy and would seem more productive than Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Vlad then Cruz. Much more speed at the top and Nelson could be MVP in 3rd slot with projection of 34 HR, 125 RBI, .304 and 24 steals.
Hasn't Chris Young has been out too long to sign here? Wouldn't he be better served going to a non-contender who can give him a longer leash in the likelihood that he struggles trying to comeback?
I wonder if one of Holland/Perez/Scheppers, one of Beltre or Borbon and Kinsler (flipped for prospects) could've landed Greinke. Would you do that?
@Jay
The trade you ask about is getting robbed instead of coming our ahead.
Two players that must stay indefinitely.....Andrus as SS for next 12-15 with possible last 5 of that as 3B and Cruz as RF for next 5 years then DH for another 5.
If they can score Webb, and he can pitch like he did before his injury - he'll be almost as good as Greinke. There was another rumor out today that Texas is definitely in on Webb.
Amigo: Fine take. I'm interested to hear whether some of the folks who work from a more quantitative perspective also share your thoughts, because I think they would be hard pressed to demonstrate the added value of things you mention that Elvis brings to the team. I'm really interested to hear how that perspective can justify including intangibles when the discussion about tenths of a WAR was so vociferous.
rbt: The whole question of what would it have taken to get Greinke is another issue altogether. The timing of prospects is over thought. Seriously, if a team has two high-end prospects at the same position breaking in at the same time, I'm certain something can be worked out. Maybe a trade, maybe a position shift, whatever. There's no such thing as too much talent.
I fully believe the Rangers should not have put Scheppers AND Perez or Holland AND Perez on the table. That talent pool (high-end SP) is too thin already within the organization, and it is one that is critical to maintain to extend the window beyond the next 2-4 years. I'm interested to hear Jason Park's thoughts on this.
So, the equivalent package from Texas: Elvis Andrus, Scheppers, Julio Borbon, and Perez
No way do I do that because three high-impact players are in there: Elvis, Scheppers and Perez.
And, the equivalent package from Texas: Elvis Andrus, Scheppers, Julio Borbon, and Erlin
I almost certainly I would say 'no'. The issue is that including both Elvis AND Scheppers is a significant improvement over Escobar and Jeffress, and another player (not Yuni) would have to come back to balance the amount of high-impact leaving the Rangers (Tim Melville preferably, but even a low-level high-impact guy like Yordano Ventura would help restock). I don't see any reason Moore would be interested in this. Based on the rumors out there, he wanted a one-way trade with pretty much any AL team.
Elvis+Borbon+Erlin, based on what I've discussed above in regards to WAR over the next two seasons, might have been acceptable IMO. It depends how likely I think it is that Greinke might be on the market at mid-season.
I think Moore's approach is very good if his desire is to build an average team. But, I think it's pretty silly to look for breadth rather than high-impact capacity at this stage of their building process. He's further ahead getting one high-impact guy than four mid-impact guys. And, it's silly to put a premium on trading within the AL, if that means he has to take a package of mid-impact guys from the NL.
So, I understand the Rangers didn't match up with the desired return of ML-ready plus a premium for within-league trading. I think it's equally interesting to hear whether folks would've considered putting Elvis on the table. Elvis+Borbon+Erlin, I probably could've lived with that deal.
BTW, I'm not implying Elvis+Borbon+Erlin gets the deal done.
I'm saying that's where I draw the line with including Elvis or not.
I would have dealt Elvis and, say Erlin, for Greinke. And not thought twice about it. However, I think KC would have wanted Elvis treated like a "prospect" and not an "All Star", and that doesn't fly.
I really think the idea of signing multiple injury-riddled pitchers is smart. It doesn't increase your risk. It reduces it. Bring in Webb and 2 from Francis, Young, and Wang. Count on at least 1 being back healthy and being a #3 starter or better. Then hope that you get a second who is productive out of the trio. It just gives you a lot more possibilities of who could fill out those #4/5 spots.
The idea os that if you bring in only Webb then you have to be prepared for the event that you get nothing from your FA pitching.
I just don't trust the existing group to produce 5 good starters. That might have a lot to do with me having zero faith in Tommy Hunter. If he goes bad this year, this rotation could struggle badly at the back.
As for salary dumps, look to the Mets. Santana and Wright are possible additions that the Mets might not want to pay on a poor team.
Finally, I think there's a greater-than-zero chance that Greinke can be gotten at the Deadline.
Just read on mlbtraderumors that the cubs and rangers are frontrunners for webb and he feels like he can make 30+ starts this year.. Would be a great signing if that happened
lets mutiny
1ST of all - THANK YOU for admitting that this off-season has been a failure. And while I agree that the Lee and Greinke situations were somewhat out of our control... they COULD have happened. The FO could have offered the 7th year for Lee... and despite what the Dayton Moore says, he wouldn't have been so intent on trading within the AL if the price was right. Now if that price included Elvis Andrus, then it was best to pass... but I'm 99.8% sure that we could've come up with a package that didn't include current, major conrtibutors, that would've blown out the Brewers offer. But whatever... what's done is done!
Brandon Webb? Why on earth do any of you think Brandon Webb would want to resurrect his career in the AL, let alone in Arlington? Granted, money can make people do curious things... but if I was a former star pitcher coming off a major injury and wanting to re-establish myself for a HUGE contract in 2011, the last place I'd want to pitch is in the AL, let alone in Texas. Don't you think their agents have told them to look at how Rich Harden fared?
Chris Young? No thank you.
Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez would have been HUGE improvements. And from what I've read, the Rangers never appeared to be serious suitors for Crawford (mainly because of Lee holding us hostage) and I never read a single thing that we were in on Gonzalez.
Granted, Crawford's contract is out-of-whack... but we have money to spend... and it is only money, right? And why wasn't Gonzalez given strong consideration? He would've been a GREAT pickup and the package San Diego was asking for wasn't out of line at all. Throw Moreland, Hunter, and Ogando at them and they may have agreed to it... but from what I can tell, we never made them an offer... why?
Adam Dunn's contract is probably the most reasonable of the bunch (relatively speaking of course)... and his supposed demand to play 1b obviously wasn't an issue at all or he wouldn't have signed with the White Sox. You can't tell me he wouldn't have come to Texas for a few million more than what he got from Chicago.
Konerko would have been a great pick up too... and although I understand his love affair with the owner (of the Sox), he could've been persuaded by a few more million $$.
Would the extra dollars thrown at a Dunn or Knoerko had a negative effect on what the Rangers could do in the future... no, I don't think so... unless we're being lied to.
I could go on and on but I won't because you've all heard me bitch about it too many times now.
Here's the deal... if the Ranger's didn't make it to the post season and were still in rebuilding mode, I wouldn't be in favor of adding any of these guys... but they did, and now they've missed out on a bunch of players that would have really improved this roster... and apart from Gonzalez and Greinke, these improvements wouldn't have cost the Rangers anything but money.
I'm frustrated. I trust JD but I'm getting frustrated. Perhaps that's why I'm not a GM, huh?
@David - why are you assuming (and you're not the only one, so don't take this personally) this team will still be in the hunt come the trade deadline? What makes you think the A's won't have blown it wide open by that time? Who do you think will be available at the deadline... and why do you think the asking price won't be greater then than it is now? How many Zach Geinke's are out there... and how many will become available at mid-season... and why would the price for that player be LESS than what it is now? Think about it man...
Not so much a winter of discontent......it would've been great to have Cliff Lee back, but the contract years were well past scary, they were hideous. To me, this winter wasn't a hand wringing excercise beyonf Cliff's decision.
The club won 90 games last year, starting the year with Feldman & Harden in the 1 & 2 spots. Francisco had to be removed as closer. The catchers basically hit their weight and it took 2/3 of the season to find anyone to play 1st base. Lee went 4 & 6. Cantu & Guzman added no value. And they still won 90 games.
Still no love for Vlad? Someone then has to tell me who replaces the 115 RBI's from his spot in the lineup. Maybe Vlad can't do it again, but at least he's the candidate who did it last.
If need be, someone will be looking to trade their high cost pitchers at the deadline, probably from the National League. Maybe a Cris Carpenter type becomes available.
Honestly Pabloesque, you're a little overboard here. Gonzalez is great, but I think the combination of prospects and money was too much for a mid-market team to absorb.
Why would Webb join Texas? Because if he's right he can pitch anywhere. And if he's right and he comes here, this is a top-shelf WS contender. And if he fronts a rotation that goes deep into the playoffs, that's how he gets Cliff Lee money. Going to the Cubs and playing for an afterthought team is not the best way for him to maximize his value next offseason.
JD and team have remained committed to the long-term plan of drafting and developing talent. Again, the Rangers are poised to field a strong team, returning almost every pennant-winning starter. The farm includes high-end talent who are potentially ML-ready during 2011. Daniels will monitor progress and be in position to leverage the talent of prospects and a healthy fund balance to acquire another impact player (or two) in July.
Thanks JD for staying the course and realizing that baseball writers have a habit of manufacturing crises to draw attention to themselves. We look forward to your contract decisions with CJ, Josh, and Colby. Great exercise of patience this winter.
Peace.
Pablo does "overboard" better than anyone around here.
Josey Wales,
I'm not sure it's even possible to have words of doubt or be upset at Daniels right now. Remember, he got us Cliff Lee while we were bankrupt. He must have his reasons for not paying that high of a price for Greinke. Trust in Daniels.
Rick P. makes several good points... but again, I think the perception changes as the goals shift from winning the AL West to winning it all.
@Scooby and WWJDD - LOL... that's cool, I tend to get too excited. That doesn't mean I take back what I said... but I will confess I sometimes blow things out of proportion... but hey, I at least admitted that it's not a good thing I'm the GM, right? I have to get brownie points for that, don't I?
@Garrett - would Webb have been wise to say "uh yeah, I think I can make something like 8 or 9 starts this year, assuming my arm doesn't fall off"... c'mon, what do you expect him to say?
I still like to read your posts, Pablo - even if you are a bit over the top at times :)
I still think Texas and Webb are a great fit. If he comes in pitches like old Brandon Webb, then the rotation looks a lot like it would have with Cliff Lee, only for $17 million less.
And Brandon Webb ends up looking like Cliff Lee- and there's a lot of money in looking like that.
Now if he thinks he can go 30 starts, but only at 80% of what he once was, then maybe pitching in Wrigley makes more sense.
@ Scooby
You can take Wang off your list, he signed with Washington earlier this month.
Pablo -
I love your enthusiasm even if I disagree with you much of the time. Keep the faith and those typing fingers warm, brother.
Pablo is a bit over zealous at times and Scooby can be too negative occasionally but they are two of the top 5 posters on the site so keep bringing it each day.
Everything written here is to voice opinion or illicit responses and that's exactly what those two accomplish!!!
It is what it is folks......rotation going into 2011 will probably look something like:
Wilson
Lewis
Hunter
Holland
?? ??
Hopefully Feldman won't be part of this as he was simply just another one of thousands of MLB pitchers over the decades who had his one year in the sun!
MY will still be at 3B and struggling defensively and probably going downhill offensively. Let's see what happens but Oakland has a great young pitching staff and LAA still has a solid core in the rotation.........might be a disappointing season this year folks?? Just have to wait and see.
Andrus is about as close to a "not expendable" as the Rangers currently have, IMHO.