Tomorrow Never Knows: The Present Value of Prospects and Why the Rangers Can Afford to Trade From Depth
"89 reasons why I love mustaches." Part 1: The Farm System as it stands now
While certainly a top 10 system in all of baseball, the Rangers can no longer brag that their collection of talent resides in the rarified air of the top tier. Thanks in part to the graduations of Neftali Feliz and Mitch Moreland, the trading of Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Blake Beavan, Michael Main, and Omar Poveda, the rapid decline of former prospects Kasey Kiker and Danny Gutierrez, and the developmental hurdles encountered by top prospects Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers, the overall ranking of the Texas farm has taken a hit, and the makeup of the system has shifted (somewhat) from high-impact talent to depth. That’s not to say that the minor league system is void of high-impact talent; rather, the farm’s value is more directly tied to depth than in previous years.
Let’s take a closer look at what the Rangers currently have on the farm and assign a basic trade value to each prospect (trade value based on a big ticket return like Greinke, Johnson, etc). I’ll group the players into tiers based on their present value, and give you some brief scouting breakdowns like potential impact, attributes, and red flags. After we’ve established value for the farm, I’ll make a case for why trading prospects for proven major league talent makes sense for the Rangers at the present, and how that could affect the shape of the system in the future.
Tier #1
LHP Martin Perez
Potential impact: Quality #2 starter on a first-division team.
Present value: Top 25 prospect in baseball; primary piece in a trade.
Attributes: Short athletic pitcher with compact delivery, above-average command projection, and three pitches with plus potential. At present, his fastball can sit 92-96 with good lefty movement; his curveball flashes plus at times, and projects to be a 60 grade pitch at maturity; his changeup plays well off his fastball with great shape and tumble, and projects to be above-average with a chance to be well-above-average at peak.
Potential red flags: Lacks physical projection; struggled with command and consistency in 2010; saw fastball velocity ebb and flow during season; the unknowns associated with present age.
RHP Tanner Scheppers
Potential impact: Frontline closer
Present value: Top 50 prospect in baseball; primary piece in trade (although would be secondary if grouped with Perez).
Attributes: Prototypical size and plus athleticism for pitcher. Arsenal features a plus-plus fastball that can touch 99 and rarely dips below 94 mph, even as a starter; plus curveball that I have seen graded as high as 70 on the scouting scale; late-inning demeanor and competitive nature.
Potential red flags: Shoulder injury in 2008; age (will be 24 in 2011); underdeveloped changeup that will limit potential as a starter; spotty command.
Tier #2
OF Engel Beltre
Potential impact: First-division starter in centerfield
Present value: Top 100 prospect in baseball; secondary piece in a trade
Attributes: Projects to have above-average defensive tools at position, with plus range, solid glove and a strong arm; plus speed; plus projections on the hit tool, with excellent contact ability; swing mechanics and hit tool look conducive for some power potential; above-average overall athleticism; faux hawk and dynamic attire.
Potential red flags: Still transitioning from athlete with raw tools to baseball player with on-the-field skills; lacks mature approach at the plate and is overly aggressive; needs refinement with routes in centerfield; needs overall maturity; has yet to produce at Double-A level.
SS Jurickson Profar
Potential Impact: First-division starter in the middle of the infield.
Present value: Top 100 prospect in baseball; secondary piece in trade.
Attributes: Plus-plus makeup; above-average defensive projections, with plus arm, excellent glove, and sound fundamentals; hit tool projects to be above-average from both sides of the plate; solid-average power potential; overall polish and maturity to game.
Potential red flags: Age and experience level; has solid-average to plus projections across the board, but lacks elite upside; some scouts question his bat, suggesting he will struggle against full-season pitching; doesn’t have much physical projection; lacks high-end speed.
Tier #3
LHP Robbie Erlin
Impact potential: Solid-average #3 starter
Present value: Fringe Top 100 Prospect in baseball; tertiary piece in trade
Attributes: Short athletic pitcher with smooth mechanics. Arsenal includes three pitches that grade out solid-average or above; fastball thrown for strikes in the 89-92 range with arm-side movement; curveball is swing-and-miss pitch with excellent depth and vertical movement; changeup has plus potential with deception and fade; maturity and approach beyond his years; plus command/control; extremely positive statistical results in full-season ball.
Potential red flags: Lacks plus fastball velocity; lacks physical projection; has yet to face advanced hitters; overall maturity of arsenal doesn’t leave much to dream on or project.
LHP Michael Kirkman
Potential impact: #4 starter; second-tier setup man
Present value: Top 10 in Rangers system; tertiary piece in trade
Attributes: Plus fastball velocity, sitting in the low 90s but can touch 95 in short bursts; plus potential slider that plays well off fastball and has good tilt; once-promising curveball flashes potential and could become second above-average secondary pitch; excellent size and sound mechanics; major league experience and success.
Potential red flags: Spotty command at present and lacks above-average projection; changeup is underdeveloped with average future grades; lacks true wipeout pitch; lacks high-impact upside.
SS Luis Sardinas
Potential impact: First-division starter at shortstop
Present value: Top 10 in Rangers system; tertiary player in trade.
Attributes: Plus defensive projections, with strong arm, slick glove, and excellent range; solid-average projection on hit tool, with contact ability and potential to develop gap-to-gap power; Plus speed, with first-step quickness that should allow for stolen bases; plus makeup with strong work ethic and desire to improve.
Potential red flags: Body at present is awkward, and physical projection (as far as strength goes) is limited; doesn’t have much power projection; swing more conducive for contact and slap approach; because of body, speed on the field is inconsistent; some durability concerns; development will take time.
RHP Wilmer Font*
Impact potential: Frontline set-up man; second-tier closer
Present value: On 40-man roster; limited because of TJ; tertiary piece in trade.
Attributes: Electric fastball that will sit 92-96 in the rotation and touch 99 in short relief busts; changeup has plus potential and started to develop in 2010, showing good fading action and deception out of hand; tall with long arms, that give him ability to create angle to arsenal; youth.
Potential red flags: Underwent Tommy John surgery last month; underdeveloped curveball that looks more like a slurve because of insufficient arm-speed; lacks above-average command projection; struggles with pacing and pitch sequencing; inconsistent mechanics.
*Font, despite being on the shelf thanks to TJ surgery, and not falling in my overall top 10 (should I decide to rank the prospects in that manner), slots into the third tier in terms of value, which might seem confusing. The reasons: Font’s relatively young age coupled with the fact that before his injury, his fastball was a legit 70 grade pitch that showed 80 grade potential in short bursts out the pen. His command was spotty and his secondary pitches inconsistent, but he can throw serious flamethrower smoke, and that will always have value.
LHP Miguel de los Santos
Impact potential: Late-innings reliever on second division team
Present value: Top 10 in the Rangers system; on 40-man roster; tertiary player in trade
Attributes: Plus fastball velocity that can touch higher in bursts; plus changeup that offers deception and tumbling action; curveball that has above-average potential with big break; can miss bats with all three pitches; mature approach to the mound.
Potential red flags: Only 38 innings in full-season ball; lacks above-average control, and often displays below-average command; curveball is inconsistent and lost development due to underutilization in ’10; physically mature without much additional projection.
RHP Fabio Castillo
Impact potential: Late-innings reliever on second-division team
Present value: On 40-man roster; could end up in top 10 in Rangers system; tertiary piece in trade.
Attributes: Fastball that sits in the 93-97 range, with late life and weight; hard slider thrown in the mid-upper 80s with tilt that misses bats and plays well off fastball. Hard to make solid-contact against; late-inning demeanor.
Potential red flags: Lacks deep arsenal; doesn’t have plus command; struggles with overall control; limited professional success; has yet to show ability to get Double-A hitters out; mechanics that not only affect command potential, but could lead to arm injury.
Tier #4
3B Mike Olt
Impact potential: First-division starter at third base
Present value: Top ten in Rangers system; 2010 Draftee (ineligible for direct inclusion in trade)
Attributes: Above-average defensive projections at third, with strong arm and above-average glove; bat has potential, with above-average bat speed and a sound approach; plus raw strength and power potential; good makeup and work ethic.
Potential red flags: Despite sound approach and bat speed, his hit tool lacks impact projection, and some scouts question his contact ability going forward; lacks speed; 22 years-old and yet to play full-season ball, so questions about competition level exist.
RHP Joseph Wieland
Impact potential: Solid-average #3/4 starter
Present value: Top 10 in Rangers system (underrated prospect); quaternary player in trade.
Attributes: Projects as innings-eating workhouse, thanks to sound mechanics and durable frame. Fastball sits in the low 90s, but can touch 94 with some movement; plus potential curveball with depth and sharp vertical break; excellent present control with above-average command potential; advanced pitchability, with feel for sequence and situation.
Potential red flags: Lacks elite stuff; changeup will flash average at times, but remains inconsistent; lacks wow factor, and some scouts already placed him in command/control box; gives up too many hits.
RHP Matt Thompson
Impact potential: Solid-average #3/4 starter
Present value: Top 15 in Rangers system (underrated prospect); quaternary player in trade.
Attributes: Prototypical size and strength for a starter; fastball thrown in the 90-92 range, but can touch higher in short-bursts; curveball is plus pitch, with depth and sharp break; mechanics are clean and repeatable which allows for plus control/command projection; intelligent pitcher with feel for craft.
Potential red flags: Lacks elite fastball velocity and the pitch is straight; changeup has some potential because of repeatable delivery, but is currently fringe-average; gives up way too many hits.
*In Part 2, I’ll break down the remaining players in Tier #4, list some of the players that make up Tier #5 (too many to breakdown), and explain why I think trading prospects for proven major league talent makes sense given the current state of the farm, and how this could all affect the state of the farm in the future.
Prospect Rankings, Prospects, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (26)
Excellent start, love the scouting info.
That's good stuff. A Rangers Farm hand Primer. And Greinke has fired his agent and demanded a trade, immediately. 2 ea SS, 1 ea 3B, and 1 ea outfielder. Everyone else is a pitcher. Can the Rangers be that Pitcher Rich? Even if half of them crater it still leaves enough to create a log jam at the top. Just don't know if any of it fits that which KC demands. Maybe, another opportunity will appear soon.
I just can't see KC wanting to trade their Ace which tells their Fanbase that this season Blows. How are they going to sell tickets if they trade their best Pitcher before Springtime? Now, if you package a front line position player with some near ready prospects for Greinke can stir-up some interest and hope in KC.
The Royals have the best farm system in baseball, so the fan-base has that to look forward to. The Royals have to trade Greinke this off-season. It's going to happen. The Rangers might not have what KC is looking for, but they can make a very competitive offer.
Yah, this is going to be good.
Note that the pipeline has shifted from #1 to somewhere in the top 10.
Time to go buy some more coal for the furnace.
KC will wait till the break to trade Greinke. First, because they still hope for some stupidity in the trade market. Second, they do not want to admit that this isn't going to be the year. A more reasonable offer will be taken at the break. At that time the Rangers will also better understand there needs.
Good stuff, can't wait for the next installment.
Love you.
Jon, KC will trade Greinke now. He just asked for a trade and his value will be higher if a team can get a full two seasons out of him instead of one and a half.
I'm willing to bet that Greinke is sick of losing and would flourish here. I was wary of his makeup, but the more I read about him the more convinced I am that he'll be fine.
Nice read. Surprised nothing mentioned about Eric Hurley or Omar Beltre, two minor leaguers with llmited time in the show. I thought they would be in tier #3 if Kirkman was placed there.
By the way, there's a blurb in the St. Pete Times today that the Rangers have signed Seth McClung to a split contract (Seth lives in the Tampa area). No mention in the Dallas media yet.
"faux hawk and dynamic attire."
This is the inside info I come here for; I did not know that about Engel. Those 2 attributes should vault him up the Royals wish list...who do they have with those skills?! My guess: NO ONE
But we do bitches
El Magico working his magic nicely.
I'm kind of suprised seeing Perez's upside being a #2 starter, but whatever.
Nice work Parks.
Trading from strength is one thing, and I'm all for it. I just want to make sure that we aren't being bank heisted for the player that we are trading for. Greinke or Garza are both good pitchers, Greinke obviously the better of the two, but I don't think either one is worth trading pretty much every top player in the cupboard for.
Perez hurt his evaluations that much with his showing this year or is it more about we were higher here on him then we should have been?
As much as I have wanted the Rangers to trade for Greinke in the past, I can't figure out if I think it is even more important now.
I get that teams on a budget should keep high-end talent in the system as long as they can, and now that the Rangers have more moderate rather than high-end talent, it is easier to restock in short order. High-end talent is the most difficult thing to find.
And so, when high-end talent is scarce, does it make sense to trade it away? Or better stated, maybe, how much of it can be traded away before the only option for improving the team two years down the road would be the Free Agent market?
The bottom line is that the Rangers can not sustain success through the Free Agent Market.
The Rangers have 2-4 years of peak offense from Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler. They have 2-3 years of peak in CJ, Colby plus a good amount of #4-5 young starters. They aren't in a position to do a Teixeira trade anytime soon. So, if they drain all of their high-end talent from the system for Greinke, who they also would have for 2 years, it becomes pretty clear that the Rangers have high certainty for competing the next 2-3 years and the likelihood they will compete after that takes a blow.
Can't really see that it would be a good plan to drain the system of all of its tier 1 and tier 2 talent.
If you're idea is to take one from tier 1 and one from tier 2 and add a gaggle of tier 3/4 pitchers, I think that makes sense.
BTW, a hypothetical scouting question.
Suppose Scheppers had shown a 50 changeup this year and the ability to pitch down in the zone.... With his age, small number of IP the year before being drafted, and shoulder injury, would he still be seen as frontline closer rather than a #2 starter?
It seems like one of hte other things that limits Scheppers as a starter is the thoughts about shoulder. The lack of a third pitch I'd bet is just sorta the last nail in the coffin.
Though I could easily be wrong on this one.
I am surprised that Omar Beltre did not make this group. I suppose he is considered a prospect despite having to cool his heels in the DR for 5 years
Hurley?
El Magico is Magic. Brilliant, Professor.
Let me play devil's advocate. Instead of trading away prospects, let's say the Rangers are interested in acquiring another team's high end prospects ala the Texeira trade. Who would the Rangers dangle? I don't think Michael Young for at least another year. Would it be Hamilton or Cruz? What could the Rangers get for either? The problem with trading either of them is the Rangers don't have anyone ready to step in their shoes. Kinsler? I don't know the answer, but I will say this: when a good portion of your team was acquired through trade when they were still in the prospect stage, you can't close the door on a similar move even though you can now carry a larger payroll.
Great stuff!
I can't wait for part two! Thank you, sexy!
lol at Profar's red flags. He is 17, I love Andrus but say the name Boras and Profar is the SS of the future.
DMax: That's foolish. Profar's future is too abstract to make statements like that. Have you ever seen Profar play? What makes you think he is the SS of the future?
All in all I would be shocked if Jason wrote "Part 2".
Reality: I posted it. Be shocked.
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