Tuesday Evening Rangers Notes: The Annual Gold Glove Sham
Elvis Andrus isn't impressed by Derek Jeter and his jump throws.This probably isn't going to be a super-hot topic over the next couple of weeks, because for a variety of reasons I don't think the Rangers will be rushing to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero -- or eschew his services -- until they're more certain about what's going to happen on the Cliff Lee front, but hopefully the new poll on the left-hand sidebar will provide some degree of insight as far as the maximum amount that the community would be willing to pay to Guerrero in 2011:
● The 2010 American League Gold Glove winners have been announced, and included squarely among the honorees is Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who defensively graded out at minus-4.7 runs (via Ultimate Zone Rating) and minus-13 runs (via Defensive Runs Saved) in 2010 (Craig Calcaterra, NBCSports.com)
[Nothing stirs the hornet's nest that is the baseball blogosphere quite like off-season awards voting -- particularly when the award is conferred based on reputation rather than merit (Rafael Palmeiro was a good example of this), and particularly when it involves an endlessly polarizing player on the best-known baseball team in the world. The award itself is intended to reward "superior individual fielding performances," which I take to mean that observed performance should carry far heavier weight than true talent ... but, hell, performance, talent, it doesn't really matter. We know Jeter isn't close to Gold Glove territory. We know that the voting process is flawed, and we also know that there is no impetus to change the process, and so the annual ritual of mocking and ridiculing poor selections will endure -- even beyond the point when Jeter finally calls it quits.
I won't argue that Elvis Andrus should have won the award because, frankly, I don't know that he should have. I'd be inclined to bet against it, actually. What I will do is quote the grand finish of Colin Wyers' column today, and quietly chuckle at the notion of New York paying him big money this winter: "All of the available evidence seems to suggest that Jeter is a worse fielder than most defensive metrics indicate, perhaps on the order of 20 to 30 runs below the average shortstop. This makes it possible that Jeter, in 2010, was performing at roughly the same level as a typical replacement—in other words, his ability to hit like something resembling an average shortstop doesn’t offset his inability to field like one." Good luck with that.]
● Ron Washington has reportedly shot down any notion of Josh Hamilton moving to first base, stating that Hamilton would only undertake that switch if his career in the outfield was over; meanwhile, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan suggests that there is a greater-than-zero chance of the Rangers offering arbitration to Jeff Francoeur (who would stand to bank at least $4-5 million through that process), but another report states that Francoeur will clear waivers and become a free agent by the end of this week (Bryan Dolgin, CBS Radio; Jon Paul Morosi, FOXSports.com)
[Given all available information, I think the Rangers are better served rolling with Josh Hamilton in left field through at least 2012, so this makes sense -- and as I've argued before, moving a guy with some history of back issues to a position known to be difficult on backs (and which he's never played before) is, well, a risk in itself. Francoeur, meanwhile, wants a full-time gig (despite being essentially replacement level over the last three seasons), and even if he were to back off of that request, I've already explained why I don't think he really works as a platoon partner/fifth outfielder in Texas. Maybe he'll leverage that "veteran leadership" into full-time work elsewhere?]
● If [the Rangers don't sign Cliff Lee], they could turn their attention to Carl Crawford, who as a left-handed-hitting outfielder with speed would be a good fit for them as a No. 2 hitter. Adding Crawford would allow Hamilton, Cruz and David Murphy to rotate through the other two outfield slots and DH. Crawford is a safer bet than is Lee, and he's also attractive in that keeping him away from the Angels, who desperately need offense, would benefit the Rangers. Texas' best trait last year was a stifling defense; Crawford would make it even better." (Joe Sheehan, SI.com)
[FanGraphs crowdsourced Crawford in late August, and the average length/salary worked out to 5.5 years at an average annual value of $16.4 million, or a total commitment of $90 million. Texas can sustain that sort of payroll hit, but there's a not-so-subtle distinction between feasibility and prudence. Yeah, the Rangers could sign Crawford and measurably improve their 2011 roster, but assorted reports have indicated that Crawford doesn't want to play center field, and with that being the case Texas would have to slot Josh Hamilton into the DH hole (with little playing time being available to David Murphy), or stick Hamilton in center field and hope for the best. And hope isn't a strategy. This topic probably deserves a closer look in the near future.]
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (21)
Who votes on this [expletive deleted]! What a joke...Elvis is so obviously the best fielding shortshop in the AL, it's not even funny. Shameful.
What a sham! Shame on you MLB.
Texas fans are such sore losers, you are the shameful onesl.
I'm just glad Cano won one so that, next year (during the playoffs, especially), we can hear all about the Yankee infield and all of their Gold Gloves. YEAH!
Texas fans are such sore losers, you are the shameful onesl.
Or it's the major league coaches/managers who are tasked with the GG balloting. I don't think it's the people criticizing the selection itself.
The award has been a joke for at least ten years now. When raffy won one while mostly DHing it lost the credibility it had. Not sure if Andrus was the best in the AL but I'd guarantee it's not Jeter nor was it Face when he won his
A gold glove? Jetter has a gold glove? Maybe that explains why he can't lift it high enough to catch anything.
Who votes on GGs? Media or the teams? I wonder if some teams wouldn't see an advantage in giving Jeter a better bargaining hand this offseason, given how poor he is defensively? Cynical perhaps, but it makes me chuckle.
Why are we surprised that Jeter won it? Our ELITE 3b won it just a few years ago!
There is no doubt at all that Elvis is the best SS in the AL, people must not have seen him play enough. If its not him, then its definitely not Jeter at this point in his career. He has lost at least two steps.
I saw that Jeter won and literally laughed out loud. Truly a joke. I'm not so sure pElvis should have won it, but I can definitely disagree agree with the argument that Jeter is the top defensive shortstop in the AL.
And people wonder why there's such a loud cry against Yankee bias.
disagree*
I think Crawford could make some sense if we don't land Lee. I think he is a safe bet to be worth $90-100 million over six years. From what I've read, it seems that speedy contact hitters like Crawford age better than hitters with lower contact rates. I'd be a little hesitant about how to manage CF if we land Crawford. But I still think you could rotate Julio Borbon into center and give Hamilton plenty of time at DH to keep him healthy.
I also think that if you sign Crawford, you do whatever it takes to get Greinke. Then when Cruz (or maybe even Hamilton) are nearing free agency, you can trade one of them to restock the system, knowing that you have Crawford locked up long-term.
Then when Cruz (or maybe even Hamilton) are nearing free agency, you can trade one of them to restock the system, knowing that you have Crawford locked up long-term.
One of my issues with this plan is that if the Rangers are competitive in Cruz's or Hamilton's walk year (and I think there's a very high probability that they will at least be competitive in late July over the next 2-3 years), and the trade bait in question is performing well, would the Rangers have the guts to pull the trigger on a deal? What if they're virtually knotted with LAA or SEA atop the AL West standings? Since they likely wouldn't be receiving any ML-ready pieces in a deal like that, could the front office sleep at night knowing that they might have impaired the Rangers' chances of making the playoffs, or making a deep post-season run?
Now, granted, they could trade one of the players in question in the off-season preceding their free agency. Maybe it works, then. But if the Rangers are competitive to the point that they have a viable chance of winning the AL pennant, can they 'sell' the notion of trading a mid-order slugger for prospects to their fans? To their coaching staf? To their players? To themselves, even? I'm not sure. I do know that teams in that sort of position with a valuable, albeit FA-bound commodity usually stick it out and take the draft picks instead.
Now, granted, they could trade one of the players in question in the off-season preceding their free agency. Maybe it works, then. But if the Rangers are competitive to the point that they have a viable chance of winning the AL pennant, can they 'sell' the notion of trading a mid-order slugger for prospects to their fans?
Of course not. And there is nothing wrong with simply taking the draft picks if that is the route the team chooses. I was instead underscoring the fact that farm systems are fickle. Trading away one major commodity can substantially improve the appearance of the farm system. Adding Crawford would give the team depth which would enable them, if they choose, to trade from a position of strength if they feel their farm system is a serous weakness in the future. Similarly, if the team feels that they cannot fiscally afford to keep Crawford, Cruz, and Hamilton, then dealing Cruz could make some sense.
Ultimately, I was reiterating the fact that the team shouldn't be scared about putting together a major package for Greinke. If that package includes both Schppers and Perez, then fine. You can sign a player like Crawford that would give the team major outfield depth which could potentially be used to restock the farm system (if they so choose).
I see where you're coming from now. Of course, I'm a bit skittish about Crawford despite his "young-player skills," but that's another issue altogether.
It is an interesting question -- Hamilton's walk year is his age-31 season, whereas Cruz's is his age-32 season. Hamilton will have some MVP hardware by the end of this year, one would think (and if not, he'll finish a very close second). Hamilton is also quite a bit more popular here with the common fan than Cruz, I think, which isn't an enormous consideration but does factor into the decision process if by that point Hamilton has been marketed as the "new" face of the franchise. And Hamilton's health is, of course, an enigma.
So, if the Rangers did sign Crawford and were truly hellbent on moving one of their sluggers, which one is the smarter sell before his final pre-FA season -- the younger and arguably more talented but much higher-risk Hamilton, or the slightly older and lower-risk Cruz? The easy answer would be "whichever one would recoup more talent," but because their walk years are different, you can't do a straight-up comparison -- you can take whatever Hamilton would get you and keep Cruz, or you can keep Hamilton and hope that Cruz gets you a comparable or better package, and hope that Hamilton doesn't maim himself.
The really great thing is that this year, the Gold Glove Awards don't matter. For so long in the off season, the Rangers would point with pride to Gold Glove & Silver Slugger Awards as a measure of the team's success. This year instead, we can talk about the World Series. This is intoxicating!
I strongly feel that Cruz puts up a higher WAR over the next T seasons than Hamilton or Crawford. He's healthier and still blossoming.
There is no doubt at all that Elvis is the best SS in the AL, people must not have seen him play enough. If its not him, then its definitely not Jeter at this point in his career. He has lost at least two steps.
This is where I think the distinction between talent and performance comes into play -- Andrus may very well have the greatest defensive talent of any American League shortstop, but there are no fewer than three respectable (albeit fallible) measures of defense that suggest Alexei Ramirez and/or Cliff Pennington would have been better selections.
Makes perfect sense to me...I grade out hitters based on fewest K's and basestealers on fewest CS's...
I use stats to back up my arguments...and errors/Ks/CSs are irrefutable.
The obvious next response would be that if you get to more balls, there are fewer chances to make errors. SO on pure production, the best comparison stat using errors would be total chances and total errors and what percentage that would make.
It is very hard to quantify how detrimental a player making 20 errors but getting to a lot of ball in the hole or up the middle is compared to one that catches whatever is hit toward his position and rarely makes a bobble or a bad throw.
Joey is right though, the eyeball test and raw talent is probably toward Elvis, but the metrics all say Alexei. No way you grade or compare will go for Jeter, which is fair assessment to say the voters got that one very wrong.