The Birth And Death Of A Rumor
Something a trifle unusual even by the capricious standards of baseball's hot-stove season took place over this past weekend, and it involved a player with whom few Rangers fans were even faintly acquainted just 48 hours ago. Early Saturday afternoon, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported that the Rangers "may be" the high bidders for Japanese right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma -- a fleeting supposition that Rosenthal himself quickly retracted, as he soon thereafter implied in a full-length column that the Athletics may instead have won the bidding war for the right to negotiate a contract with Iwakuma.
And now, as of early Monday morning, we know that (a) Iwakuma's parent team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, will accept the highest submitted bid since it apparently exceeded their reserve (minimum) price for acceptance, and (b) Iwakuma's agent is making cryptic allusions to the Athletics on Twitter, suggesting that they placed the prevailing bid over the Rangers and Mariners. If this ultimately proves to be the case, we will have witnessed the entire life cycle of an off-season rumor in a single weekend, and that rumor will have failed to bear any fruit for the Rangers, but if nothing else I will have derived a lesson about false certainty and drawing conclusions about relatively unknown quantities.
Here's the thing: We know that the Rangers -- with special assistance from Pacific Rim operations director Jim Colborn -- have been seriously involved on any number of Japanese pitchers in the last few years, including Iwakuma, and know that they would not have submitted a bid if they were not serious about winning. We know Iwakuma's NPB-side statistics (which are predictably stout, but there is not yet a clear consensus on the optimal translation method), and we know some stuff about his pitch mix based on a three-game Pitch f/x sample from last year's World Baseball Classic and a (less accurate) collection of NPB pitch data. We also know that he has dealt with some scattered elbow/shoulder problems, but nothing that has been a significant issue in the last 2-3 years or so.
And that's about it. It's incredible, really. Over the life of a presumed four-year deal ($15-plus million posting fee inclusive), there's a good chance Iwakuma will nail down between $10-12 million on an average annual basis ... but in exchange for what, exactly? I've read virtually every decent assessment of Iwakuma out there, and they all sound well and good, but none of them impart enough information for me to independently formulate my own opinion as to whether signing Iwakuma for a total sum approaching $50 million is a judicious use of funds. And to that end, I take some amount of issue with those who believe they can label his potential under the guise of certainty, or those who in any way despair/take comfort in the fact that the Rangers likely won't sign him. Those analysts who acknowledge these enormous limitations -- including Patrick Newman -- are ahead of 95 percent of the rest of us. The best you can really do with somebody like Iwakuma is make educated, but heavily qualified guesses.
Aside from that digression, the most interesting aspect of the Rangers' involvement on Iwakuma is that it signals their desire to go out and acquire pitching right now, irrespective of their pursuit of Cliff Lee. The one thing that would ratchet up the complexity of the Rangers' off-season a bit would be Lee defecting to New York, because if that comes to pass, they're caught in a situation where the acquisition of additional pitching is a virtual must if they harbor serious title aspirations in 2011. You likely need one-mid rotation arm at a bare minimum, and preferably an upper-tier arm ... and I guess if there's any problem with finally being a good team, it's that the sense of urgency to sustain that quality and acquire needed pieces is as great as it can ever possibly be.
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (21)
"You likely need one-mid rotation arm at a bare minimum, and preferably an upper-tier arm ... and I guess if there's any problem with finally being a good team, it's that the sense of urgency to sustain that quality and acquire needed pieces is as great as it can ever possibly be."
Agree - we all saw how Hunter was exposed in the playoffs. He held his own in his last game, but it would have been really nice to have an upgrade there. I actually think trading Hunter now might not be a bad idea, if they can get a decent player or prospect for him. When is his value going to be any higher?
Include Huntrer in a Greinke deal, whether Lee stays or goes.
It's hard to buy in to Japanese pitchers right now. They so often end up overpaid and under-performing. Yu Daevish, perhaps being the exception.
I agree we need an upgrade from this years version of Tommy Hunter. I'm not so sure that the answer is Tommy Hunter himself. I think this offseason for TH needs to be focused on developing an out pitch. You can be an effective pitcher in 162 pounding the zone with fastballs and an average secondary repoirtoir but post seasons a different monster. I, for one hope TH is around here for a while because I do think he's a bulldog and can be good but if he doesn't start making some strides he's gotta go. I'm intrigued by Greinke. How bout Lee, Greinke, Wilson, Lewis, and oh I don't know, me as a Texas Rangers rotation?? That would be silly.
Stay with proven MLB commodities right now. Work on #1 pitcher, catcher, 3B and DH situation before looking at #4 slots from Japan at too high a price.
Lee, Greinke, Wilson, Lewis and Feliz would be the best rotation in baseball and the team could use Ogando as closer. The offense could stay exactly the same with the Rangers winning 105 games and home field advantage.
Plan A = sign Lee
Plan B = trade for Greinke
Plan C = sign this Japanese pitcher
Plan D = sign the next best SP on the FA market
Plan E = look at trade possibilities for other upper echelon pitchers (remember too that Tampa may be willing to deal some of its pitching just to clear payroll... my point = JD is at his best when he's creative, so look at potential trade partners)
Wonder who's going to get Brandon Webb? If he can get healthy again, he could be a bargain-priced stud.
Don't forget on the subject of possible hurt guys who might have potential upside at low price: the Rangers did sign Mark Prior near the end of last season and the early returns were promising. I'm pretty sure he'll be at AAA and his situation will be monitored with must interest from many fans.
How about having Brandon Webb/Ben Sheets/Mark Prior for about $8m total, and be happy if you get a legit #3 starter and 2 busts out of the trio?
I look at Webb as a having a better chance to rebound to his previous form than harden, sheets, or prior. Webb should be our "project" this season.
What about Matt Garza
I think a huge part of the benefit of going after these Japanese guys is that they don't cost you a draft pick. I've been so intrigued lately about the Rangers' probable winter budget, that I completely forgot the cost associated with losing 1 or 2 picks on some of these FAs. Come June '11, I don't want to find out we lost out on a gigantic talent that fell on sign-ability issues all the way to where we would have picked if we hadn't given away our draft choice on Jon Garland or somebody similar.
That also makes the Latin players a great value, though they are always a half-dozen yrs away from making impact for you.
Also what about Chris Young
It looks like MLB.com is reporting that Oakland won the bid war on Iwakuma, so it's official he's not coming here.
As for what to do with putting together next year's staff, I'd say that Brandon Webb should be next year's Rich Harden, a guy with a proven track record you're hoping comes back from injury to give you something approaching what he did in his heyday. He's worth taking a flyer on, I think, as long as his medicals look good and it looks like he can throw anything like what he used to.
A trade for Greinke would be great, as long as it's a JD trade from the past couple of years and not one from his early days.
What I think I'm looking forward to, and hope to see in the next few years, is the day when the Rangers don't have to put a complete staff together using baling wire, speed tape, and spackle. I know it's a rare thing for teams to have the ability to fill all their rotation/bullpen holes from within, but it seems like the Rangers, because of the reluctance of free-agent pitchers to come to Arlington, have had to make more of these flyer-type moves than a lot of the premier teams in baseball. I'm hoping that as the team hopefully has more consistent success and better pitching, that they are able to go out and get a top-of-the-rotation or top-bullpen guy in free agency if they need one instead of always losing out in the battle to get guys like Randy Johnson or Roger Clemens to come pitch here.
It's a dream worth dreaming....
How about having Brandon Webb/Ben Sheets/Mark Prior for about $8m total, and be happy if you get a legit #3 starter and 2 busts out of the trio?
They'd probably be better off going out and committing $8 million to a Westbrook type or something than committing $8 million to that three-pronged enigma. Not that I think this is necessarily a good comparison anyway, because Prior is already under contract on a minor league deal going into 2011, Brandon Webb will probably get a very low base deal packed with IP incentives, and Ben Sheets may not be a good investment at anything beyond $4-5 million next year.
"Dear Mr. Fantasy play us a tune
Something to make us all happy"
(1) Rangers win the Lee bidding war without breaking the bank.
(2) Rangers trade for Greinke without breaking the farm clubs
(3) The Face agrees to move to DH as part of a player/coach position agreement and will assume the mantle after Wash retires in two years. (Hey, I stated that this is a fanatasy!)
(4) Rangers sign Beltre to cover 3B
(5) Rangers sign John Buck at catcher
(6) Hamilton, CJ, and Cruz agree to extensions not just arb.
(7) Rangers draft / international signings put the club in BA's top three systems.
"Sing a song, play guitar, make it snappy"
Gosh I think its a dumb idea to commit to anything over 3 years to any pitcher. I've heard rumors as much as 7. Its not my money but heck, I would think Lee will go for 6 to 7 years at something like 140 million plus. I'd like to the see the Rangers take a chance on Chris Young or a Brandon Webb and sign someone like Kerry Wood for the Bullpen. That was a huge weakness in the world series.
I say screw Buck, let's go after VMart.
How about re-signing Tobby Harrah to play 3rd and Jim Sundberg to catch. They could then lure Charlie Hough out of retirement to be the #4 guy in the rotation. Fergeson Jenkins could become the closer and Mickey Rivers the backup outfielder. Would that work?
The more I read about San Diego and Adrian Gonzalez's contract the more I think he should be considered for 1B this year. Low salary, first rate performer, and being his contract year you think that his numbers would be good. After he walks, we get the draft picks.
Problem is, what would SD want for him. I would love to have him come home and contribute to 2011.
I think this offseason for TH needs to be focused on developing an out pitch. You can be an effective pitcher in 162 pounding the zone with fastballs and an average secondary repertoire but post seasons a different monster.
I've long held that Hunter's curveball *can* be that pitch, based upon both its movement pattern and its scouting grade (J. Parks has said before that it's a 60-grade pitch when it's "on"), but if you drill down into the data you find that it really hasn't been that pitch ... yet. His curveball whiff rate is 9.7 percent from 2009-10; the major league average is around 11.6 percent.
What I'd really like to see -- and I want to say I've stumbled upon some resource that conveyed this information before, but I cannot for the life of me remember what it might have been -- is something denoting which pitches Hunter throws in which counts. It may be that he doesn't use the curveball enough in 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 counts, or it may be that his curveball location is suboptimal when he does throw it in strikeout counts, or it may be that it isn't deceptive enough. Whatever the case, I think the curveball is probably the closest thing he has to a "wipeout" pitch, and I don't think the probability is very high that he can just magically develop another such pitch.
...just from the eye test metric, it appears that the very best pitching prospect that has come from Japan in quite some time is Colbyashi Lewis-san... I don't seem to remember a bidding fee for him, either.