The Neftali Feliz Jump-Off Point
With the great winter convergence of baseball executives, agents, journalists, and everyone else of that rumor mill-churning ilk still a week away, one finds that the news cycle is becoming a bit, uhm, repetitive. Case in point: last night, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported that free-agent right-hander Frank Francisco would "likely" accept the Rangers' arbitration offer -- a morsel of news that I would find far more revelatory in nature if not for the fact that virtually the exact same thing was reported during the middle of last week. Still, though, I guess there's something to be said for corroborating the initial report, but it's clear that we, as rumor-obsessed and stir-crazy individuals, want something of more substance, or (better still) actual player movement.
Until that demand is fulfilled, however, we're left to speculate, wishcast, and dream up our own scenarios, and one of the most popular ones -- and a corollary of the Francisco news -- is this: Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation. Sure, the idea's been out there forever, but it's also been reinvigorated, with the most idealistic version of the plan apparently going something like this: ride Darren Oliver/Darren O'Day/Alexi Ogando/Frank Francisco as your late-inning relief weapons while grooming Feliz as a starting pitcher at Triple-A Round Rock, recall him to the majors when he's "ready," and -- voila! -- you have a probable league-average rotation cog with both youth and upside. The upside is so damn easy to believe in, too, and, as most are well aware, a good starting pitcher is usually more valuable than even a great closer. So, what's the problem?
The "problem" is actually multi-faceted and, to a fairly large degree, beyond the sabermetric realm, and to bring a more scouting-oriented perspective to the mix I consulted resident scouting guru Jason Parks for his thoughts on Feliz's immediate future: "Feliz threw 80 percent fastballs last year. He barely touched the change-up, which used to be his best [secondary pitch]. At this point, his fastball is solid, but his CU is underdeveloped, so it will take time to refine. His transition wouldn't be as smooth as people think it would be. He would need half a season in AAA, if not more.
"I'm not sure it's the right time, and I know his stuff isn't ready for two, three, or four passes through a lineup. Big league hitters will eventually adjust to fastball-heavy pitchers after seeing it a few times. His curve is very good, but how do those pitches pair after multiple passes? Where does the change-up fit in? Development doesnt just happen because the fanbase thinks its a good idea. The Rangers know Feliz's arm. They will make the right call. Fans aren't privy to the right info. Period."
Another of the glaring issues with the Feliz-as-starter idea is, in fact, a thought that was prevalent right around the last time this topic of discussion came up -- the thought that if you wait too long to make a move with Feliz from the bullpen to the starting rotation, then his ninth-inning role will be cemented, and the Rangers, being in win-now mode as they are, won't want to disrupt that bullpen dynamic, much less forgo his value at the major league level while he works on matters of refinement in the minors. This latter point now strikes me as especially important in the Feliz discussion, because even if there is a greater long-term payoff to be had (and Jason emphasized his skepticism with regard to Feliz's chances of becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter), one can argue that the Rangers aren't so ridiculously far ahead of their competition that they can readily afford to punt short-term value.
I suspect at least part of the existing hope for Feliz undertaking a bullpen-to-rotation move stems from C.J. Wilson making the successful transition last season, but this is sort of an apples-to-oranges comparison -- at the time that he made the jump, Wilson had the deeper, more mature repertoire relative to Feliz, and thus was better equipped to power through a major league lineup multiple times. Are the Rangers prepared to swallow hard and dispatch their 2010 relief ace back to the minors for some number of months in the hopes of him becoming rotation-ready ... and even if they are, what happens to the plan if the major league bullpen gets dinged with a couple of arm injuries, or if Darren Oliver and Alexi Ogando aren't nearly as good as everyone had hoped, or if any other attrition along those sames lines manifests?
When good questions beget more good questions than good answers in return, you know you're neck-deep in the realm of the subjective, and it's impossible to know which course of action is the correct one until you're looking back on it several years down the line, but it strikes me that, no, maybe this really isn't the time to move Feliz around. There may never be a truly optimal time, and maybe (certainly?) the game plan changes if the Rangers do something so radical as adding free-agent closer Rafael Soriano in lieu of Cliff Lee and/or Zach Greinke, but the timing doesn't feel right to undertake this course of action now. Consider me surprised that I'd ever actually say that.
And right now, somebody, somewhere is saying, "I told you so!"
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (28)
It will be interesting to learn what Feliz thinks about all this. Undoubtedly, he wants to start. Going back to AAA to hone those skills is something else. He's tasted the good life of major league baseball. I have to think he believes he can work through the starters' learning curve st the big league level and undoubtedly doesn't want to give up the big league stage.
As someone who owns a Feliz jersey I'm a little biased, but I want him in the starting rotation so bad. I think he could be a dominant starter and there is simply no substitute for that. Look at how much Cliff Lee is going to make this offseason, ~23 million a year. At best as a closer Feliz will be at what 10 mil? In my mind this is the year you have to make the shift if you are going to, because then if the move fails you put him back in the bullpen next year and you basically lost a year of a stud closer on the gamble. If it works though you have a number 1-2 caliber guy in your rotation for the next 4 seasons at least at an incredible bargain price. Obviously it all comes down to whether he would succeed as a starter or not, but I think the reward is great enough where even if it's a 50-50 shot of him succeeding that it's a risk I'm willing to take.
Don't fix it if it ain't broke. Jesus said that.
Why would a decision to move him take so long for him to get ready? If they made that decision a month ago, Feliz could have done some Winter Ball, early Spring Training and then rapidly shot through AA and AAA to be with the team by mid to late May.
Certainly in his first 5-8 MLB starts nobody expects him to go more than 5-6 innings? Just try to keep him around 60 pitches in those first starts before he can go more. His fastball the first time through should be fine, use some change the second time then freeze them with his curve on the third time through. Even sounds a bit like what Nolan used to do!
It almost seems that Feliz never went "home" because of his waiting in Arlington to respond to winning the ROY award. I wonder if the decision was made and he's already been working toward stretching out?
Unfortunately, it's broke. Holland hasn't "hit" in the rotation. Feliz is in the 'pen. Scheppers is being slotted as a reliever by more and more scouts. Perez' development has slowed. To not get an ace out of that quartet would mean something went terribly wrong, in my opinion. If the Rangers have Feliz slotted as a closer the way J Parks does, I would dangle him plus second-tier prospects for Greinke and let the Roylas try to make him a starter. I say give Neffi a shot at the rotation and let him work it out in the Bigs. If he only gives you 4-5 innings per start for half a season before figuring it out, so be it.
I also don't get this issue with "pitch sequence". Isn't that what a veteran Catcher is for?
I would add this: besides Frank Frank, Ogando, O'Day, and Ollie, we have two more potential lat-inning flame-throwers in the mix. Letting Feliz work out the kinks as a starter at Round Rock while fast-tracking Scheppers to the Big League 'pen is an interesting option, and I also have some curiosity about what Mark Lowe might have to offer as a 7th inning guy who throws 98.
Great article Joey! That has been my thought all along is that Feliz would need no less than a half a season @ AAA if not more to become a useful starter. Would that be counter productive for a young pitchers mental make who knows? With Feliz I suspect it would not be an issue. I feel he could be good middle of the rotation guy, but do not think he is a TORP like many do. My thoughts are not unfounded either I watched him start a few games back in 08 when he was @ frisco. Also like some have suggested stretching him out in spring ball is not enough IMO. Let him keep developing @ the major league level like CJ did then it may be an option to stretch him out in the spring two or three years down the road just because he closes games for that period of time does me he stuck there forever I think that is best for & the Rangers as a team @ this point in the juncture. Just on fans thoughts
Anybody who says that the Rangers are sending the Rookie of the Year back to the minors is smoking reefer. And very good reefer, too. Maybe the best.
The Rangers will give Feliz a job at the major league level next year. Right out of spring training. Count on it.
I don't understand why people want to make such definitive statements about Feliz. I believe in this front office enough to think that if they are convinced -- now or at any time in the future -- that Feliz will help the team more in the rotation then they'll move him there. You can't just apply general sabremetric saws like a starter is more valuable than a reliever to every pitcher. Every individual and team situation is unique.
I see very little down-side in giving Feliz a shot at the rotation. Say he get's 4 or 5 starts... and if not successful, move him back to the pen. The only issue, to me, is the wear/tear. Maddux/Wash have to closely watch his pitch counts/IP and make absolutely sure they don't overwork him.
This is a no-brainer... let him pitch through April and see if he's got what it takes to stay in the rotation.
Start out this season as he is. By ASB it will become clearer what he should be doing. There is a lot of wisdom in what was said in the article. Just let the season shake out and see who the players are for this coming season. Some things won't workout. Other things will develop. Don't go introducing an unknown variable when Feliz does what he does so well. There could be a log jam of talent that is ready to move up. Spring Training has to be one of the best, yet, for a Rangers team that is expected to be ahead of the curve. I still like the old cartoon depiction of two vultures setting on a light tower out in Surprise, Az. The caption says, "Patience, my ass! I'm going down there and kill some sob." I think that means expediency isn't always the best way to go. Just do what you do, do well. Give it a little time.
1. I was, much like Scooby Dude, very strongly against Feliz to the pen last year.
2. Like Joey, I have come around (though I would not pitch him in a rigid role like last year, but rather use him as my 1980s "fireman", pitching him 1-3 innings in HIGH LEVERAGE situations situation after the 6th -- somewhat like they did in 09, but adding the 9th inning to the mix).
3. I fear that his fastball is very hittable when it dips below 95 (it doesn't have a tremendous amount of movement and his breaking ball is not consistent enough). I suspect that he would sit at 94-95 (rather than 97-99) in the rotation. See CJ this year, when he sat 3-5 mph slower than he did as a reliever.
4. What if the West comes down to 2-3 games this year? Are we really comfortable having one of our four best arms missing the first 3 months? How many Ws will that cost us? The first time a late inning lead is blown (jeez, we blew 3 in the first week last year), panic will set in.
5. I think our window to compete is 4-5 years, but our window to be truly elite may just be 2 (see contracts of Josh, CJ, Nellie, Lewis, Franky). Why not make this move as we evolve from this 2 year window to the next? It seems to me that making this move AFTER 2012 seems the logical time to do it. 2013 may be a step back year as we reload for 2014.
btw, I predict that Holland makes a significant jump this year.
Feliz to the eventually to the rotation in 2011? Two letters - C.J.
Feliz to the rotation is something that needs to happen soon, his stuff isn't going to improve as a closer, he doesn't have to use the curveball when he only pitches one inning. Ceej pitched 6-8 a lot, even when he became the Closer/Setup man, he still threw everything but the kitchen sink (high pitch counts), that is what helped him transition, but he also didn't throw 97-100 mph even out of the bullpen. Let's see Feliz start in the rangers rotation in 2011! The kid was brought up as a starter and needs to stay a starter, it's waste to see him closing out ballgames every 3-4 days. Like Scooby said, we have quite a few solid up and coming relief pitchers, but fewer TORPs and we can't waste a possible TORP in the bullpen.
Jack Daddy - nobody i root harder for than Holland right now.
I think Feliz should be in the rotation this year. C.J. could leave as a FA after this season and with the a hole at the #2 starter spot going into '12 I'd feel more comfortable with Feliz having a year as a starter under hs belt to start '12. With a year of development already under his belt, he could very well be ready by then to fill the #2 spot in place of Wilson.
The Rangers just re-upped Mark Lowe. If Frank comes back, that's FF, Ollie, O'Day, Ogando, Lowe, plus probably Kirkman, maybe Scooter in a long role, Beltre should hit the Bigs this year, Strop should get at least a lokk" Fabio Castillo ain't that far away, Sceppers should hit the Arlingtong 'pen this year. RP looks like a bit of a logjam this year. Give Neffi his shot...
[First two sentences removed for language, baiting.] The article clearly indicates why moving Feliz to the rotation is problematic, at least at the present, but that doesn't stop the short bus from pulling up and the inmates making stupid comments. Can you guys disable the comment feature? It's too hard to ignore. At least on LSB you can skip over the comments by using the "z." Just a thought.
Sorry - I apologize for backing the short bus up to this site accidentally. I usually drop them off at the DMN, but I got a little confused because someone sent me some Megan Fox pictures on my smart phone, and I couldn't think straight.
Actually, this is the regular route of the Ron Washington Hater Bus.
This is a no-brainer... let him pitch through April and see if he's got what it takes to stay in the rotation.
Okay, but all indications are that he's going to require time in the RR rotation for no less than several months -- and if you're really going to commit to the Feliz-as-a-starter plan, you can't pull the plug if he struggles for 4-5 starts in the minors. If he's put in three months and it's looking like a lost cause, that's another story, but if you really want to make it work, you have to give him more time than that.
Can you guys disable the comment feature? It's too hard to ignore.
I wouldn't count on it. If every website went to such lengths to bar "stupid comments," I doubt there would be many comments being posted anywhere. I (obviously) don't agree with everything posted here, but you're painting with a rather broad stroke here.
LSB Poster - I imagine that the posters on this site prefer to hear back from their readers. I guess that voicing your opinion isn't allowed in this country, let alone BBTIA. I haven't agreed with everything that every poster or reader comment, but I don't blast people for it.
[Last sentence removed for reasons obvious to the author -- keep it civil, people. -J]
correction - I haven't agreed with every poster or reader comment,
@Joey - why in the world would it take 3 or 4 months to "get him ready" (to start)? If true, then it's a no-brainer that they have to leave him in the pen. No way you ship 1 of your top arms to AA/AAA for 3 months when you're a) competing for another pennant and b) have no one else better to close out games.
If it takes upwards of 15 or 16 starts to find out if he's got the right stuff to stick, then this plan must be abondoned now.
Didn't they make the call on CJ right out of spring training? I understand they knew CJ could command 3 or 4 pitches, whereas Feliz controls 1 and a half... but still, I think professional coaches/managers/scouts could make that determination in a month, not 3 or 4 months as you suggest.
I'm clearly in the minority on this one. I'd keep Feliz where he is. CJ took years to develop his repertoire, it isn't even close to being apples to apples. I've seen how the Yankees ruined Joba Chamberlain by playing this type of game, Feliz is far too valuable an arm to fool around with this way.
I believe Ogando could close games, but not like Feliz did last year. I know it's an intriguing idea, but I'd say no to the idea.
When Feliz was acquired, the Rangers projected him to be a TORP; his development in the minors followed that philosophy and Feliz's success (dominance) at AA landed him an early MLB debut in 2009. His success as a reliever, coupled with the additions of CJ and Colby, allowed the Rangers in 2010 to let Feliz experience ML success based upon his filthy FB. Leveraging that success by transitioning him to starter is the next phase in his development.
Feliz has too much potential to assign him as a one-inning pitcher --"the Ranger's closer." He can certainly work through a line-up once successfully and needs to be guided to develop secondary pitches and make selection decisions during a stretch-out phase in 2011 Spring Training. The Rangers need another quality starter this year and will be in more critical need in 2012, assuming that CJ Wilson leaves in free agency.
As Parks has suggested in his player development profiles, Scheppers and Ogando are better suited to the relief role; Matt Harrison seems to have a lock in the bullpen as a "longman". The Rangers farm system has an embarrassment of riches in the relief corps (Scheppers, Kirkman, Beltre, Strop). Their measure of dominance will ultimately rest on the ability of this team to develop pitching talent, principally as starters who can log 180 + innings for the length of club control.
Feliz needs an opportunity to fulfill the development plan --- in 2011, a year where opportunity meets preparation. Go Neftali!
It seems to me that there's no choice but to look at him as a starter in spring training. If he's going well enough, then he'll be in the rotation to start the season. If he's the fifth starter, there'll be some swing back to relief from time to time and not a huge increase in innings. Regardless, he's not going to be giving you seven innings on a regular basis. (I've been corrupted by the recent articles showing that dominant closers aren't as valuable as thought previously.)
I think the sabre-metric guys are wrong about closers. I think they are more important than their innings would otherwise indicate. The reson they do not show up that way in the sabre-metric systems is because of the way that they stat guys build their systems. Notice, that is not calling them dishonest or not useful
I'd leave Feliz as a Mariano Rivara type closer. Especially if the Rangers manage to resign Cliff Lee. They'd only need one starter at that point are abasically saying we want to win it all THIS YEAR. To me Ogando is the candidate to move into the rotation. I think he has more command of his secondary pitches. I think he also has more stamina because he looks bigger and stronger to me though that might not be true. That said, there is a rumor that the Rangers are talking Andy Pettite. He is no longer a true ace but wouldn't he make a fine number 4 starter? Also, could signing him influnce Lee to stay in Arlington?
Imagine
Cliff Lee
Colby Lewis
C.J. Wilson
Andy Pettite
Tommy Hunter
Wow!
Ogando screams closer to me. Filthy, hard stuff. And he wasn't "raised" as a starter the way Feliz has been.