The Paul Konerko Option
Over the last few days, we've expounded upon several of our underlying beliefs about this particular off-season as it pertains to the Rangers -- on Monday, I examined the seeming inflation of the free-agent market and the abundant potential for overpayment, to which Prashanth responded the next morning with a thorough explanation of why the Rangers are in a position to overpay for marginal wins. But what about the players whose statistics, age, skill composition and contractual history align in such a way that they're inherently likelier to be overpaid than the field -- and, worst yet, at greater risk than most of falling off a cliff?
I would argue that Vladimir Guerrero belongs in this bucket, and to a lesser extent Victor Martinez as well, but that isn't where the list ends. Texas is, of course, reported to be pursuing Guerrero despite their refusal to tender him arbitration, and were also reported to be in "big" on Martinez before Detroit's four-year, $50 million offer proved too enticing for him to resist, and now it seems we may have a third name to add to both lists; according to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers are "interested" in Paul Konerko, the 34-year-old masher who finished second in the American League in home runs (39) last season and finished fifth in the MVP balloting behind the consensus 'Big Four' comprising Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano and Jose Bautista.
On the surface, it's an idea that makes some sense -- right-handed power was a commodity that Texas chased for what seemed like the better part of the 2010 season, a desire borne in part from the fact that the Rangers were merely mediocre against southpaws on the whole (.266/.326/.391; 97 sOPS+) and badly exposed at certain points. Guerrero was not a problem in this regard whatsoever (.338/.395/.536; 149 sOPS+), but Konerko was a monster of titanic proportions against left-handers (.339/.441/.661; 194 sOPS+) and utterly dominant overall (.304/.379/.562), and it's pretty easy to see how those raw numbers and the excessive power would engender significant intrigue.
Now, the first issue to arise is one of defensive flexibility (or a distinct lack thereof) -- Konerko still logs upwards of 80 percent of his total games at first base, and signing him likely necessitates pushing Mitch Moreland aside into some sort of lesser role, but you could deal with that if you knew he was a reasonably good bet to continue producing at a 4-5 WAR level and would only require a per-year salary commensurate with that of his salary the last few years ($12 million). The problem is that you don't know that, and it's doubtful you'd want to bet on it either -- and what's more, there's a rather extraordinary confluence of factors that could render his next contract quite painful from the team standpoint.
There are the great numbers last year, but there are also the preceding three seasons in which he averaged merely .260/.350/.475 along with 27 home runs annually, which is unnervingly close to league-average production from a first baseman. One of the basic tenets of player forecasting is that you incorporate multiple years of past performance into the projection, and so you have to begin wondering which version of Konerko you're going to get; unfortunately, the prevailing bid for his services will likely pay him at a level closer to his 2010 numbers than his 2007-09 numbers, and I hardly think he's going to bank less than the $12 million he earned in 2010 after clouting 39 home runs.
There's his age, which is concerning in that he leans more towards the "old-player skills" profile and would thus seem to be at a greater risk of rapid decline, and also in that his defense is already hovering around passable, at best, with not much margin for further degradation. And there's also this concerning scouting-side tidbit from ESPN.com's Keith Law: "He's a dead-fastball hitter who is drifting into the older hitter's habit of "cheating" on fastballs, starting his bat early to catch up to the better velocity but leaving himself vulnerable to breaking stuff and changeups; if he doesn't start his bat early, he's late on the pitch."
I'm reminded of the infamous 2004-05 off-season, when Texas, fresh off an 89-win season, tried -- and failed -- to sign Carlos Delgado, who was entering his age-33 season at the time. The thought at the time was that he could produce big numbers at first base for at least three more seasons, during which the Rangers were expecting to seriously contend; ultimately, he produced very good age-33 and -34 seasons (the first with the Marlins, and the years thereafter with the Mets), tanked his age-35 season, somewhat rebounded in his age-36 season, and was then brought down by injuries. Konerko fits the same general player mold as Delgado, but has never been as dangerous as Delgado was during his prime, and is several years further along in the aging process -- 2011 will, in fact, be his age-35 season. I'm not suggesting this comp is perfect in any way, but it's something that I can't clear out of my head.
If you've continued reading all the way to this point, it probably won't surprise you to learn that I'm not especially high on Konerko -- you might be able to feel okay about him next year, but anything beyond that is a huge question mark, and it's very likely he'll snag a multi-year deal worth eight figures annually. A two-year commitment in the $20-22 million range is probably about as daring as I'd be willing to get, but my speculatory numbers aren't the truly interesting thing here. I realize we're dabbling in rumors and hearsay and that Texas is still entrenched in wait-and-see mode with all of these free-agent hitters as a consequence of the Cliff Lee situation, but seriously ... Guerrero, Konerko, and probably another name tomorrow? Something's telling me this front office isn't nearly as fond of the rotating-cast-at-DH idea as I would like to think it is.
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (28)
Konerko is not the answer for the $$$ it would take nor quite frankly is Vlad. These guys are right on the cusp on "it's all over" in their careers.....Konerko might have a couple of years more than Vlad. And really when these guys talk about well I need 2 or 3 or 4 years at 8M or 12M or whatever, just how the heck much money can one person spend? Moreland will become more settled in at 1B in 2011 and hopefully the coaching staff will help him with his defense....I think he will be fine offensively. Catching and DH are two spots of concern for this club. I'd rather see us spend some money on another White Sox...A.J. Peirzynski for a couple of years while we are seeking a good young candidate for catching. The DH spot, well I would say another 1-year contract for Vlad but he wants more years and after the second half and the post season, I just don't know?
Can we not roll with Moreland at 1B going into next season ... he's still a kid (ie, low cost) ... and he showed me enough during the playoffs to warrant the respect of letting him start the season as the "regular" ... his production will determine whether or not he ultimately stays as the regular, but IMHO, he's earned the roll ...
He's cost effective, he's getting better with the glove, and he's capable of putting up solid numbers with his bat ... whether he does or not is the only question ... but he's earned the chance to succeed or fail, hasn't he??
It's $$$ we don't have to spend at this particular spot, at this particular point in time ... and we may need to have for $$$ elsewhere ...
Just sayin' ...
Would a rotating or platoon set up even be possible with Wash? Wash focuses on what the players believe they can do. As such Wash won't always go by the "book" because he believes that the player in question can perform in the difficult situation. More importantly Wash wants his players to believe the same thing. So you are not always going to see players rotated in and out of the lineup in an optimal fashion. This so not to say that Wash is a bad manager, but that I believe his managerial style doesn't mesh with a rotating DH.
I think Derrek Lee would be a much cheaper alternative than Konerko, with more upside and at a significantly lower cost. Over the last four years, these guys are similarly productive hitters, but Lee is much more athletic and considered a premium defender at 1b. It's likely that Konerko will get overpaid on a multi year deal and Lee will out produce him while on a middling 1 year contract.
Last 4 years:
Lee .294 .375 .494 121 OPS+
Konerko .273 .361 .504 123 OPS+
One other note on Lee's season last year... If you look at his 2nd half splits (.373 obp, .516 slg) it seems right in line with what he has done the last several years. His overall numbers were drug down by a horrible 1st half when he had a .280 babip. There is reason to believe that Derrek Lee is still a good bet to give you a .375 obp and slug around .500.
I like the rotating DH idea best. However I am intrigued with the idea of Derrek Lee. Since he had a sub-par year, he would most likely be much more aggreeable to sign a shorter make good contract at a more palatable cost to set himself up for a rebound contract in a couple years. He and Moreland could offer some sort of platoon at 1st and both or either could DH some. Whereas Konerko has already had a contract season that may be his last time to sign his biggest contract and Vladdy, although appreciated for what he did and really like his presence, has fastly eroding skills.
The Rangers need a big middle of the order bat to go along with Josh & Cruz period. I doubt that bat is Vlad. Vlad wasn't very good after June & neither was the Rangers' record. Fortunately, the West was so terrible that the record after June was good enough to win the division.
I'm sure that middle of the order bat is NOT Vlad. It may be Konerko, but I think finding that middle of the order bat is more important to winning the West in 2011 than re-signing Cliff Lee. The Angels & A's aren't going to make the path to defending the Rangers' West Division championship easy.
Tap the brakes on what I said about Derrek Lee. I just looked a little closer at his bio. He is older than I thought, already being 35. I am still intrigued about him being here, but now the sales point would be simply playing a role on a team that has a chance of winning it all, which might actually be an easier sell. His big contract days are already past. I see a one year deal with an option at best for him at this point. He might actually fit better that way. IF the Rangers think he still has something.
Rangers don't need Konerko. They should allow Mitch Moreland to develop at first. He has a great upside and Konerko is on his way down.
My thinking for Konerko was purely DH with the option to platoon at 1B with Mitch. I wouldn't be replacing Mitch at 1B with Konerko...
The Rangers seem to have two options here:
[A] go with a rotating DH made up of Josh, Nellie, Murphy, Mike, whoever... or [B] sign an aging slugger to log the majority of your DH ABs. That's what a DH is at this point, unless you're lucky (?) enough to have a Prince Fielder who is still young but you'd rather just have bat and not play in the field. People are complaining about age for Vlad and Pauly, but let's face it, if they were younger and in their prime, we wouldn't be wanting them as a DH and we'd be paying them even more. More and more the DH has become a spot for the aging slugger and at this point, it's about finding one you believe can still produce for the money you'll have to pay them. With that being said, I'm ok with option [A] and the flexibility that it provides, but give me Konerko on a 2 year deal and I'd rather have his added pop in the lineup.
I'm looking for an aging slugger than can still play in the field when needed and give the Rangers good 4 or 5 hole protection in the lineup. I think Konerko could do just that. Yes, he is streaky, but so was Vlad -- and at the end of the year his OBP and SLG are always rather high, it's his average that varies. I think Vlad and Konerko could put up very similar numbers next year offensively, heck, Vlad could probably do better than Konerko next year, but he limits the teams ability to DH anyone else. Pauly is probably not worth the inflated salary he'll be wanting (and I know that Kenny Williams really wants him to stay on the South Side and will do what he can to keep him), but at this point we're just exploring options and everyone has their opinion. I wouldn't go more than 3 years on him and preferably only 2. The Sox will probably go 3-4 and are more willing to pay him in order to keep their fan-favorite around.
As for D. Lee, being a Cubs fan, I've watched Derek for several years and in the past two he has declined rather quickly. His glove is still decent, but his swing has developed some major holes. I don't think his numbers with the Cubs last year were an aberration, I think this is just the type of offensive production you can come to expect from him in the future, and I believe the NL is where he needs to stay. He was a fan-favorite in Chicago as well and their willingness to part ways with him I think speaks volumes about the lack of production he's had of late. I don't think it will be long before Vitters is up and Aramis is moved to 1B -- unless Chris Davis is over there and we've got a new catching prospect in Texas.
Looking over at espn mlb page this morning, buster olney suggests that the rangers might be interested and how he would fit in with the rangers... I like this idea, since Dunns defensive limits will force him to be a dh, but he could give moreland a break at 1st what do you guys think?
*might be interested in Adam Dunn
Dunn made $12M last year as well (as Konerko) he's 31 and probably looking for a longer contract, which would be more manageable to give a 31 year old 4-5 years. He sports a lower AVG (career .250) but a high OBP and SLG (career .381/.521) -- although, all taking place in the NL -- He's an interesting option. Being younger than Vlad and Konerko makes him more appealing but he would be primarily limited to DH, as was Vlad. I might be more on board with giving Dunn a similar (to V-Mart) 4 years $50M -- if nothing more than just adding his career .521 OBPS to the lineup. I guess it just depends on how much the club is wanting to spend to assure a power hitting DH for the next few years. The cheapest option is the rotating DH platoon with players already on your roster, but I might be leaning more towards spending some money and bringing in an additional guy who can add 30+ HRs to your lineup.
[1] SS Andrus [2] 2B Kinsler [3] CF Hamilton [4] RF Cruz [5] DH Dunn [6] 3B Young [7] LF Murphy [8] C [9] 1B Moreland
Or something like that -- Looks good to me.
I thought at the beginning of the offseason that Adam Dunn would make the Rangers deadly if he would DH. Maybe Nolan can convince him to take that role. If Vlad can have the type of season he did in Arlington, Dunn could hit 45 HRs to right!!
How much is Jason Werth going to command? I'd rather pay him $18m and rotate he, Josh, Cruz, and Murph through the DH position than pay $12-14 mil for a Dh-only like Konerko or Dunn, or even $8-10 mil for Vlad or Berkman.
However I would be most up for signing a cheap and versatile 5th OF, use Borbon, Murph, Josh, and Cruz at the OF/DH starting positions, and spend the rest on pitching (ie keep Cliff AND get Greinke).
I would much much rather have Guerrero than Konerko.
- He's already a part of what is going on here
- He has always been a better player than Konerko, HOFer level in fact.
-He wants his 500th homerun, there is no way that he will not have power numbers.
Problem is he seems to want to get paid again.
When it comes to DH/1B you might as well wait a while and see how the market plays out. Maybe Adam Dunn's price comes down a bit, he's a good bet to outproduce Konerko over the next couple seasons. If not, well, there are a few guys out there cheaper and worth a look or you can just go with Moreland.
If you're going to spend the kind of money it would take to sign Konerko I'd be more interested in just getting Dunn. Dunn will likely outhit Guerrero, Konerko and Victor Martinez, so if you're going to spend big bucks on a bat, it might as well be his.
I worry about just going with the rotating DH because of how injury prone our team has been. The Josh/Cruz/Borbon/Murph OF/DH rotation is good and all until Cruz hurts his hammy and is out for 3 weeks. Then you have Young at DH and Blanco at 3rd? Then Kinsler gets hurt for 10 days and what do you do?? You end up in a real problem depth wise, which is why I would prefer adding either an extra outfielder (Crawford/Werth), or a full time DH (Dunn/Vlad). That at least gives you some injury protection because you have Borbon as a solid backup, and the outfield option would even open up the possibility of trading Murph in the right deal (which I think should be explored to capitalize on his big 2010).
I think the Rangers will let Moreland play first. While payroll is going up, it's not limitless and Moreland gives them what they need cheap. I would guess that the Rangers have to wait until the dust settles on Lee before they move on to any other major thing. I am guessing that after all the arbitration cases, the Rangers will try to shore up their pitching, especially if Lee leaves.
Last year was a magical year and it's a competitive market out there. There are still many other teams with greater resources. My expectation for the club is that they remain competitive. My hope is that they make the playoffs. I'm afraid that fans who expect the Rangers to make the playoffs now year after year will be disappointed.
I say stick with Mitch at 1st. If you track his numbers in the minors and followed the discussions about his abilities over the years he appears to be a "natural" 300 hitter. Work on his D and give him 500 at bats next year and you might have a guy that hits close to 300, gets 20+ homers and doesnt strike out a lot. Sounds like a good foundation to me. Spend the money on Vlad with a 2 year contract and ditto for a solid catcher.
would Manny DH? or is he a cancer to a clubhouse?
Ive watched nearly every game that Konerko has played with the White Sox. I truly believe that hes underrated defensively. Ill be the first one to admit that hes limited in range but if he gets near the ball, hes very solid. He has an above average arm and rarely makes throwing errors. Hehas saved so many errors for his teammates by catching nearly everything thrown his way.
Youll never find a better guy as far as his attitude and behavior. Hes total class
Ill miss Paulie if he doesnt come back to the South SIde. However, I would feel uncomfortable giving him more than 3 years for sure.
Again, what's the going rate on Jason Werth likely to be?
Im not thinking first base is as a big a hole as we think, I liked Chris Davis when he was brought up last year and if his bat will ever catch up with major league pitching he is going to be dangerous, also mitch isnt a bad spot either, Im more concerned with our catching and pitching situation. AJ is up for grabs from the white sox organization and his bat would fit nicely in the bottom of our line up, also keeping Vlad would do basically solidify what I think to be the best lineup in baseball.
If we can resign Cliff Lee, aquire Grinke and AJ and keep building from our farm system we will be good for years to come. The way I want to see the rangers next year:
pitching
1, Lee
2 Grinke
3 CJ
4 Lewis
5 Tommy Hunter (will be better but we may have to find a suitable replacement long term for this one)
batting
1 Elvis
2 Young/Kinsler
3 Nelson Cruz
4 Josh
5 Vlad
6Young Kinsler
7 AJ
8 Mooreland
9 whoever
If you keep Lee AND get Greinke, with Wilson/Lewis in the 3/4 spots,I'm fine with Tommy Hunter as a suitable #5 starter. No upgrade needed, and he doesn't have to pitch in the playoffs. However, I could easily see Omar Beltre taking Hunter's spot in the rotation.
9) Whoever would likey be Murphy, or Borbon if they want to keep Josh out of CF.
I see Moreland as an ideal #2 hitter. Works counts, makes contact, good hit-and-run guy, gap power to drive home Elvis from first on a double, left-handed, so he should hit more balls to the right side, allowing more first-to-thirds on singles and moving the runner along with groundouts.
But please don't bring back Vlad. He's on his last legs and nearly finished.
well i say resign lee than get greinke than get dunn and call it an offseason than work out contracts with cruz cj and josh during the season and have moreland DH? since dunn doesnt like too
Joey, I know you deserve some time off once in a while, but I want you to know that you are missed.
Here's something to think about:
Paulie: career .280/.356/.498/.366 wOBA/122 wRC+ in 7524 PAs
Derrek: career .282/.367/.498/.371 wOBA/128 wRC+ in 7486 PAs
One is looking for $12+, one can most likely be had for $5-ish.