If It All Goes Wrong: The Hot-Stove Edition
Julio Borbon expresses his dismay over the hypothetical sequence of events in this article.A primary side effect of the 2010 Rangers' dose of postseason success is that the off-season is less extended and more intense. For Texas fans, there's no lazy, spiraling orbit around the glaring issues facing the club this autumn. Not this year. We're all moths flying straight to the flame. It's tremendous to have this sort of excitement building about the 2011 campaign before Thanksgiving even rolls around.
Still, the heightened expectations can also be a curse. The way the hot-stove season's begun, the Rangers (and their fans) have a worryingly strong chance of getting burned. Depressing as it might be, let's take a peek at a worst-case off-season scenario. A caveat: this is not just "the glass is half-empty"-- it's "the glass is completely empty." Or, better yet: "There is no glass."
First, let's review a few key events that are already in the books:
November 7, 2010: In a piece at BBTiA, the mighty MJH reminds us of how imposing (and depressingly young) the Oakland quartet of Anderson, Cahill, Gonzalez, and Braden will be next season.
November 8, 2010: Tottenham's 3-1 Champions League drubbing of Inter Milan re-focuses a distracted Billy Beane, and the Oakland Athletics win the rights to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma, the second-best pitcher of the 2010 Japanese pro season. The A's have 30 days to make good on their reported $15 million posting fee for the 29-year old from the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.
November 10, 2010: Oakland acquires outfielder David DeJesus for a Royal pittance. Much is made of the fact that DeJesus is not going to single-handedly solve the A's offensive woes. (Much less is made of the fact that he isn't expected to.)
November 16, 2010: The Marlins sign catcher John Buck for 3 years, $18 million.
November 17, 2010: In his BBTiA debut Prashanth "Pras" Francis reminds us that barring any reinforcements, the Rangers offense us unlikely to be as good in 2011 as it was in 2010. The A's reportedly offer a five-year, $64 million contract to third baseman Adrian Beltre, surprising those who'd doubted the A's had the financial wherewithal to make a legitimate move on the 2011 AL West crown. Meanwhile, the Tigers sign reliever Joaquin Benoit to a three-year, $16.5 million contract, and reportedly offer Adam Dunn a three-year, $40 million deal.
Now, let's take a speculative, cynical, and entirely tongue-in-cheek look ahead:
November 25, 2010: Adrian Beltre thanks the A's for giving and signs. The Angels retaliate by signing Rafael Soriano to a better-than-Benoit deal. The Saints destroy the Cowboys.
December 1, 2010: Advent calendars open. Children have visions of dancing sugar plums. Adam Dunn has visions of dancing dollar signs, joining Benoit with the Tigers.
December 6-9, 2010: Baseball's Winter Meetings begin in Orlando, Florida. The Orioles overpay Victor Martinez. The Brewers overpay Jorge De La Rosa. The Nationals overpay Javier Vazquez. The Diamondbacks overpay Brian Fuentes. The Rockies overpay Jon Garland. The Winter Meetings end.
December 15, 2010: The Ides of December. Cliff Lee announces he's signing with the Yankees, declaring, "I'm taking my talents to the South Bronx." The Rangers front office is disappointed but unsurprised. The Rangers fan base goes thermonuclear.
December 16, 2010: In a parking lot outside Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, feral Rangers fans build a towering bonfire out of Cliff Lee Rangers jerseys.
December 17, 2010: The Yankees follow up on their Lee festivities by announcing deals with Jeter, Pettite, and Rivera. The Great Texas Baseball Fan Meltdown of 2010 continues. Nolan Ryan promises the Rangers will not stand pat.
December 18, 2010: The Rangers re-sign Vladimir Guerrero to a two-year, $18 million contract.
December 24, 2010: Royals GM Dayton Moore places a Christmas Eve phone call to Jon Daniels asking him to make the equivalent of a Teixeira deal for Zack Greinke. During the call, Moore equates Derek Holland to Matt Harrison, Engel Beltre to Jarrod Saltalmacchia, Jurickson Profar to Elvis Andrus, and Michael Kirkman to Beau Jones. Martin Perez is, naturally, Moore's Neftali "Perez" comp. Daniels tells Moore to ease off the eggnog.
December 25, 2010: In a Christmas Day BBTiA piece, Joey Matches reminds us that Los Angeles' top foursome – Weaver, Haren, Santana, Pineiro – isn't quite as fearsome as the A's, but that if Santana finds anything resembling his 2008 form again, and Pineiro comes close to replicating his 2009 season, look out. Matches also expresses concern that if the Angels sign Carl Crawford and if Zack Greinke is traded elsewhere, the Rangers could panic at the prospects of a third-place finish in the 2011 AL West.
December 26, 2010: The Angels sign Carl Crawford. The Twins acquire Zack Greinke from a still-hungover Dayton Moore, and re-sign Carl Pavano.
December 27, 2010: The Rangers overpay Brandon Webb and Miguel Olivo.
December 31, 2010: The Rangers wish Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson a happy New Year by announcing large contract extensions for both. At the press conference, Jon Daniels announces that with those moves, the Rangers are more or less done for the off-season. "We're very happy with the team we've assembled, and we feel we'll be competitive once again this season," states the Texas GM. Not realizing his mike is still live, he mutters, "Also, Brian Cashman, Dayton Moore, Tony Reagins, Billy Beane, and Bill Smith can kiss my rear."
January 2011: Rangers fans distract themselves from the lack of further hot-stove news with a vehement, month-long debate about whether Andrés Blanco should be converted to a reserve catcher or fifth outfielder.
February 6, 2011: Tragedy strikes at Super Bowl XLV when Cowboys Stadium is sucked into a small black hole created by a Jerry Jones-sponsored special effect during the halftime show.
February 13, 2011: Pitchers and catchers report.
The obvious question, after this litany of hypothetical bad news: Why be such a downer so soon after the high of the Rangers' postseason run? Why not dwell on the more upbeat possibilities -- that Daniels has built a dynasty, and that 2010 was just the first of many Rangers postseason appearances over the next several years?
There's no denying the Rangers 2010 was magical, and I'm certainly still basking in the afterglow. But that nice, toasty feeling shouldn't mask recognition that Texas needs to have a full set of irons in the off-season fires. The fact of the matter is that the distance between the Rangers, A's, and Angels in 2010 was not enormous, and that teams like the Twins and Yankees are also going to be well positioned to improve on their disappointing finishes in the ALDS and ALCS.
The Texas front office is facing some very tough decisions. Even if C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis can repeat their impressive 2010 campaigns, without Lee (or Greinke, or another legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter) fronting their starting five, the Rangers are not even close to having the best pitching in the AL West -- especially with Derek Holland having yet to fulfill his promise. And while the Texas farm system is still very strong, it's no longer the best in baseball. The abilities and roles of pitchers Tanner Scheppers, Omar Beltre, and Michael Kirkman are major-league question marks, and there are no blue-chip position prospects awaiting the call, à la Justin Smoak.
So, yeah, it's time: for Daniels and colleagues to go to work, balancing the Rangers' reserve of young talent against the looming threats of competitors' improvements and the still-distant but palpable sense that this Texas squad's window will soon start to close. And here at BBTiA, we'll go to work as well; in the upcoming weeks we'll be looking at the potential moves of the Rangers (and their rivals) in more detail.
Analysis, Hot Stove Season, The Off-Season
Reader Comments (26)
Thanks, Josh.
Even though you'll get bashed for this piece, I enjoyed the balance of humor and honesty.
Texas should take charge but something's up. Waiting for one guy's decision could ruin everything as more and more free agent options go elsewhere.
Something better happen soon and some major announcements need to be made because we are the AL Champions. We made our mark. Now it's time to draw a line in the sand and dare others to step across.
Great piece, Josh. Enjoyable and rational.
You know, I think I'd be more inclined to go thermonuclear over resigning soon-to-be 36 y/o Vlad at 2/18 than Cliff Lee leaving.
Waaaaay, waaaaaay more so inclined.
January 1: Joaquin Arias and Jarrod Saltalamachia are involved in a laboratory explosion in which they are fused into one person. Joaquin Saltalamachia can now throw the ball back to the pitcher and signs a 7 year, $28 million extension with the Red Sox.
An addendum... if spending really gets crazy and the Rangers are shut out to this extent, I see them spending hugely on international prospects next year. They're willing to spend but not willing to waste money on inflated assets.; and so they'll target cost-effective 16 year olds who could make an impact either as trade chips or legitimate players within 5-6 years,
Yikes! All of that conjecture might be possible. Why didn't the Angels try harder to improve last winter? They came out of Spring with some real holes. But adversity wasn't absent in Arlington this yr, and Wash and JD had to work hard to make it happen anyway. This wasn't a "charmed season" in the vein of everything going nearly perfectly.
Our Top 2 pitchers, Harden and Feldman, flopped completely; Frankie was so bad early they had to go with a rookie at closer -- and then we lost him for the season right after the AS Break. The defense got really sloppy at times early. Ian was out the first month, and missed more time later with his gimpy ankle never actually being 100%. Nelson had 3 separate stints on the DL. Borbon was a disaster at lead-off, and the Rangers digressed horribly in stolen base successes. Josh went down with broken ribs that weren't diagnosed correctly at first, and was completely rusty going into the postseason. We had basically the worst hitting combinations at 1B and Catcher in the entire MLs. Our most-promising catcher made one start and was banished to Double-A. Andrus and Vlad couldn't hit a lick the whole 2nd Half.
Sure, a lot depends on Cliff making a decision (and please don't let the Angels get him!), but I'm sure they've got some pitching targets, regardless. Just look how many questions there were last Spring with CJ and Colby in the rotation, plus Tommy having just a half-season under his belt. The two stalwarts were supposed to be Harden and Feldman, for God's Sake, and along with Matt Harrison, they gave the Rangers a very high number of really ugly starts.
You can't argue with all the great things JD and his staff did last yr at this time and during the Summer. They'll figure it out, and we'll be talent-rich and resource-rich enough again to shake off some disappointing performances. Maybe it takes getting into May or June of the 2011 season even before they really know what isn't going to work. If none of the names you mention sign, the FO can still find some hidden gems as they have done before. We got by this yr despite all the injuries without anyone other than MY having even a $10M contract. But you could see the talent outpaced the payroll everywhere; you just have to be happy to have payroll flexibility in the future when holes can't be filled from within.
Names like Rauch or Putz or Wood might be good pieces. There are plenty of decent catchers on the Type B FA list. We have several promising internal candidates to fill in the rotation, and we can always raid someone's pantry during the season. I think Mattox and Ryan will figure out how to turn Holland and Ogando into winners, if they win those last two rotation slots. Who knows where Scheppers or Perez might on their readiness for contributing key appearances come July?
One thing that's probably for sure: the Good Guys won't have nearly the cupcake schedule they did in 2010 for Interleague. But, still, they came to fight every day and tried their best to play better than the other team, no matter who they faced. That alone beats a lot of teams with equal or even slightly better talent. It was more than good enough last yr, and with some luck on the health side and a boost to the payroll, 2011 promises to be a better season, record-wise, IMO.
I'm counting on Andrus being better, Borbon being better, & Moreland doing more of the same. Feliz and Ogando and O'Day are great young pitchers, too. Youth will be served. Talent will rise to the top. Can't wait to see what happens! Go Rangers!
I can see the "speculative, cynical, and entirely tongue-in-cheek look ahead" taking place. I believe you place Cliff Lee on the back burner, nothing more JD or Nolan can do to win him over. If he comes to Texas it will be at a discount. We need to set our sights on our Plan B and if Cliff decides he will wear a Rangers uniform next year, it's just icing on the cake. I like the idea of selling high on Tommy Hunter, he could be one of the pieces for Greinke.
Whatever deals the Rangers make this offseason are likely to make our jaws drop briefly for the price in years and dollars. Even though deflation is a bigger worry in the overall economy, inflation is back big time in baseball.
The Rangers will probably end up "overpaying" for Olivo or Torrealba unless they make a trade for a catcher, and then they may have to overpay in prospects. I think it's pretty likely they do both, trade for someone like Chirinos with potential for the future, but sign a veteran to play the next year or two until they figure he's ready.
Lee will end up going to NY unless the Rangers are willing to spend more than we really want them to. The Rangers will trade players we hold dear for Greinke. I'm extremely leery of signing Victor Martinez, who will cost too much to be a DH/1B a couple years from now.
The offseason is always a minefield, but the stakes are higher this year. Great take, Josh.
I've been thinking about this for a while, and, actually, the Rangers are spared what would be the very worst scenario this offseason, barring something really unpredictable and sinister like a Hamilton meltdown or untimely death of a key player.
The very worst scenario would actually be the Yankees signing Lee and trading for Greinke. Thanks to Greinke's no-trade clause, the Rangers are spared.
This would represent the worst case scenario on a couple of levels. First, in the short term, they have the two guys the Rangers really need to make them year-in-year-out world series contenders.
Secondly, it would mean the Yankees have both the money to be the highest bidder on the FA market, and the prospects to be the highest bidder on the trade market. There would be really no avenue for the smaller market clubs to have a competitive advantage.
The good thing is that this team should be competitive in the division even if it stands pat. When was the last time the Rangers started from that sort of baseline? Also, I'll make a point I've made before on this site: People always greatly overrate the A's pitchers. Even I could have a great ERA pitching half of my games in that cavernous ballpark.
Thanks for the comments, all.
Depressing as this scenario is, it doesn’t really lay the groundwork for the A’s and Angels to simply run away with the division.
For example, I think there could be arguments that even with Beltre and DeJesus, and even if Carter and Barton have strong seasons, and even if Iwakuma is legit in his first year, the A’s should still not expected to be much better than a 90-92 win team. And similar lines could be taken on the Angels, even with Crawford and Soriano and a full season of Morales and Haren.
The real question, then, is whether the Rangers go into next season with a 90-92 win expectation.
For the record, I could never and will never be upset with Cliff Lee. If he grabs the $$$ and winds up in pinstripes for the rest of his career, I can't blame him. It's what 99% of all other players (and about 100% of the people reading this blog) would do.
Funny stuff!
I think JD is smart enough to NOT place the burden of a bad contract on this team. MY's contract is enough to make us squirm and outside of Lee and Crawford (and maybe Werth) nobody is worth over-paying.
I think that the only way to upgrade this roster is through trades... and if were going to trade blue chippers we have to obtain proven commodities still in their prime (ala Greinke and Upton). Personally, I'm not against trading away the farm to obtain star players. If this team was still middling in 2nd or 3rd place, then I'd feel differently.... but being as close as we are to winning the WS, we have to use those prospects to push us over the edge.
I'm not opposed to trading away a Perez, Profar, Beltre, and Scheppers for top talent... and if we're going to keep pace with the A's and Angels, time is of the essence.
I think Ryan is playing a little poker here with the Yankees, hoping that they will let off the pedal and drop the bidding into what will still be pricey territory.
Here is the problem with that approach: it may be seen by Lee as costing him money and alienate him enough to push him to the Yankees.
in the back of my mind I can't help help thinking that Lee was 0-2 in the WS. He just didn't get it done when the whole thing was within grasp. I know, we don't even get there without him winning game 5 in Tampa. I am beginning to think I would rather have Greinke and plug some of our other holes with the money...
Josh - written with the soul of a true stat geek. Always one step away from getting that Prosac perscription refilled ...........again!
The touch of reality is that teams do seem to be vastly over paying in dollars if not years so far. I suspect (and even hope) that the Rangers will exercise restraint and may have to go trade when all this FA madness settles down. For example, Buck is gone and Vmart's lack of defense will not solve the Ranger's catcher problem.
However, let's say that the Ranger's use their new found wealth to kick ass in the draft and international market thereby generating some trade chips up and down the line. For example, Purke (or draftee TBN) doesn't walk this time. Also, the Rangers have a bunch of player starting to come up on play me or lose me time. So there are trade chips to be used.
I would lov eto extend CJ and Cruz, but just as soon wait a year on Hamillton. Why buy high? Get another year's look at his injury track record and surely his play will fall back a tad to make an extension a bit cheaper.
I'm am very, very opposed to trading away a Perez, Profar, Beltre, and Scheppers for top talent (on a short leash)... and if we're going to keep pace with the A's and Angels over the long haul , keeping the pipeline full is critical.
"Tragedy strikes at Super Bowl XLV when Cowboys Stadium is sucked into a small black hole created by a Jerry Jones-sponsored special effect during the halftime show."
Which is what it would take for the Cowboy's to get a competent GM and sctually start winning again...........................
"I think Ryan is playing a little poker here with the Yankees"
I certainly agree with this. Ryan knows how to play his hand, which is that of a straight shooter to an extent. He's basically defined the Yankees trump card. It's up to them to either play it big, as in bigger than anyone thought, or risk having their offer not appear as spectacular as it could given the build up of the expectation of being the highest bidder. If they take the latter approach, it will be up to the genius of Cashman to have lush secondary incentives.
Going back to MJHs question of when has a player taken less money.... It's hard for competitive people to be 2nd at anything. If the Yankees offer to pay Lee the highest pitching contract in baseball, would his competitive spirit let him say no?
So, maybe that's the break point, will the Yankees make Lee the #1 paid pitcher? If they do, can the Rangers do the same? If so, that puts them effectively on the same level as the Yankees, and perhaps the lifestyle boosters put them over the top.
I can't imagine the Rangers can make Lee the highest paid pitcher. I guess my end point here is it seems to me that should the Yankees make Lee the top-paid pitcher, I can't imagine he would say no, both from simply the offer dwarfing others and from the idea of a competitive person wanting to be #1.
This is fantastic. Excellent work, Josh.
I'm not feral.
"I like the idea of selling high on Tommy Hunter, he could be one of the pieces for Greinke."
Wood, don't kid yourself. Hunter isn't the type of player the Royals are seeking and isn't enticing enough to be included in a package for a pitcher of Greinke's caliber.
I'm glad you prefaced it with the fact it was presented in good humor. Seemed at first like you were fashioning a noose with your belt and hanging your it over the shower rod...
The Lee thing will play itself out....if he takes the extra Yankee money to buy his wife a spit shield, oh well. He came on as a hired gun and performed admirably. That's all you can reasonably ask.
Seems like the offseason is the time to fret over free agents and regression of current players. But I can make the argument that Kinsler & Cruz should be better in 2011, and that Andrus, Moreland & Borbon are capable of taking great leaps forward. Holland could be the typical lefy that develops late. Maybe Feldman finds his missing sinker.
The Angels allowed themselves to get old. And let me see the A's commit money to somebody on the right side of age 32 before I start to worry about their lineup.
Not only is the Rangers farm currently not the best in baseball, I think it's ability to draft and develop position players is becoming a concern.
@Rich P: Interesting point about Feldman. He's obviously no ace, but I do think there's a chance he could find it again and be much better next year.
5 yrs/115 mil guaranteed... 2 mutual option years at 12 mil per year... Take it or leave it... If you like it so much here, you'll take it... Outside of that, you're a greedy ass Yankee (I would have said "douchebag", but "Yankee" fits it sooo much better)... I'm sick of this "Union Loyalist" tagline... Oh, he had to take it because he's so loyal to the Union... Screw the Union... In the biggest economic downturn since the Depression, I don't need to hear that 100 mil isn't enough and you have to "appease the Union" by setting the "market value" so teams give crippling contracts to the Jorge de la Rosa's of the world... I'm just sick of "Yankee Dominance" in the free-agent market... They do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING as far as scouting, development, or work (that's how we got Cliff at the deadline, bitches!!), but just throw ridiculous amounts of money at every home-grown hero and free agent... They suck so much ass, its ridiculous... Their fans suck... Their players suck... Their city sucks... Sorry that DFW isn't a coastal city and one of the most populous cities in the world... Woops... That's all that the Yankee brass has beaten us at... Good for y'all... To Cliff Lee: if you leave us for mildly more Yankee dough, screw you and the horse you rode in on... You're a douche and you can go console A-Roid and Lil' Tex when we whoop your ass with Greinke on the mound!!!!
Let's don't laugh this off!!!
Good stuff, Dino.