Wednesday Afternoon Rangers Notes: The World Series Edition
Joey MatschulatA couple of links worthy of your perusal as first pitch marches unyielding closer to reality: (a) Chris Quick of Bay City Ball was kind enough to answer some questions about the Giants for us (and my own slightly incoherent answers to his questions can be found over here), (b) Jerry Crasnick and T.R. Sullivan have penned two of the better pieces I've seen in relation to Cliff Lee and Jon Daniels (viewable here and here, respectively), and (c) Jeff Sullivan offers probably the most important pre-World Series article you'll ever read:
- Right-hander Mark Lowe has replaced left-handed specialist Clay Rapada on the Rangers' World Series roster; the other 24 rosters -- including Jorge Cantu's -- remain intact (Anthony Andro, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
[Where there's smoke, there's fire, I guess. It was sort of difficult to rationalize keeping Rapada around, particularly since he failed to accomplish the one task that he was expressly included on the ALCS roster to do (that is, serve as a Robinson Cano killer, which didn't really go so well, as he yielded a walk and a hit to the Yankees star in two plate appearances. Lowe's services will hopefully only be needed in a mid- to late-inning capacity if the Rangers are well ahead; something tells me he's not going to be the first, second, or third choice when a high-leverage situation arises. Cantu's inclusion is mildly annoying from the standpoint that he shouldn't -- and maybe won't -- start a single game in this series, but hey, he's here, and I wonder how much that tells us about how much the Rangers really do care about Chris Davis and the notion of a reinforced late-inning defense. The answer: Obviously not enough to scrap Cantu.]
- The Mets will hire 62-year-old Sandy Alderson as their new general manager, though no official announcement will be forthcoming until at least Friday (or during an off day between World Series games); Rangers general manager Jon Daniels reportedly "communicated through back channels" that he hoped the Mets would defer their hiring decision until after the conclusion of the World Series, but to no avail (Andy Martino, New York Daily News)
[And that's that. Daniels, barring an improbable and exceedingly unfortunate series of events, will remain in his current capacity next season. As far as Daniels' purported back-channel request, and the Twittersphere conflict concerning whether he was or wasn't legitimately interested in the Mets' vacancy, I think there's a good probability that this was a leverage move, and that any attempt to secure an interview with New York was driven more by an interest to inflate his asking price and better position himself going into his upcoming contract talks with the Rangers than an honest and willing desire to defect. That's not necessarily correct, but it does bring the two sides in the Daniels did-he-want-the-gig-or-not argument into congruence.]
- When queried as to whether the hostile Yankee Stadium treatment endured by his wife would in any way influence his decision on where he will sign this winter, Cliff Lee responded, "No," and attributed it to "fans being fans"; meanwhile, Lee's agent, Derek Braunecker, responded to the story thusly: "The story is not an issue to us. [Kristen Lee's] experience in New York is certainly a non-issue. She enjoys New York as much as anyone enjoys New York." (Andrew Marchand, ESPNNewYork.com)
[I've heard second-hand from people who attended Game 4 -- including Jason Parks and Jason Cole -- that the situation was very ugly in the crowd, and this serves as meaningful confirmation of that. The thing about it is that Cliff Lee will be looking to maximize two variables (the value of his next contract and the probability of winning championships), and nothing contained within this story has convinced me otherwise; that said, I would be intentionally obtuse if I didn't acknowledge that stuff like proximity to home -- which Kristen Lee also cited as an attractive feature of the Rangers -- and level of comfort and such also plays into the decision.
Ultimately, Craig Calcaterra said it best: "At the end of the day, we have no idea what's going to happen until it happens. In this case, however, a lot of folks on both sides of the issue seem to think they know better." Pretty much, yeah.]
Reader Comments (20)
Damn I was really hoping that three or four Yankee fans would have ruined New York's chances of snagging Lee.
Not sure if they RUINED the Yankees' chances of getting him, per se, but this certainly doesn't do anything positive, especially considering the fact that his family's now had the opportunity to visit both stadiums/cities during the playoffs. Which club seemed more appealing? The ballclub known for its' money that has notoriously vicious home fans? Or the up-and-coming team (and we can all agree that this is a true TEAM) whose city now reveres and appreciates it? Combine that with cheaper cost of living, etc...I don't think that he's going anywhere. I'm no doctor, but I think we'll keep our ace.
Their comments are meaningless. Lee and his agent Braunecker have to have the NYY get into a bidding war in order to maximize potential salary/# of years offers from all participants.
No one knows what is really going through Lee and his family's minds.
However combo's like $150m/6 years or even $175m/ 7 years do tend to less my desire to win such a Pyrrhic victory
Of course Lee is going to say it's a non-issue. He has a huge game to focus on and he doesn't want to give the media more fuel for the fire. Time will tell, but I like our chances to sign him...not based solely on this incident, but all factors together will keep him close to home.
What was CC's contract? 7 for $160M? That is the kind of money we are talking about. 6 @ 135-150M. Will the influx of playoff/WS money allow us to plop a good signing bonus on him? If I recall correctly CC got 10M before he threw a pitch for NY?
Just win this thing and make it easy (er).
Wonder what people will say if Texas signs Lee for 6 years and in year 3 he becomes Barry Zito... Just sayin - it could definitely happen. I'm not suggesting that they NOT sign him, just looking realistically at that kind of long-term contract, and how it will impact the team as a whole & their ability to fill in gaps with FA players so they can keep their farm system going. Everything's "feel good" right now - but the last thing Texas wants is to become the Houston Astros (with a bunch of overpriced, aging players).
RE: Diogenes
Wonder what people will say if Texas signs Lee for 6 years and in year 3 he becomes Barry Zito... Just sayin - it could definitely happen.
If the Rangers are in the World Series in Years 1 and 2 of his contract, it might still be worth it, financially. There are a large number of factors going into THAT cost-benefit analysis.
If the Rangers fail to make the playoffs in Year 1 and 2, oh boy.....
Diogenes
You hit the nail on the head. Quite a while back BBTiA (I think) ran a listing of FA pitchers over time. It was most discouraging. Zito and Chan Ho are the norm not the exception. Lee is 32 and is on a roll. What will he project out at 36, 37, 38, and 39; will he still be worth $15m a year? Remeber how close the Rangers came to signing Zito? Best second place finish ever.
The NYY are filled with high dollar, future Hall of Fame, name FA's, but couldn't even win their division. They were extremely lucky that they did not get swept in four by the Rangers.
Just resigning Hamilton, Cruz, and CJ in arb will run an additional $18m next year before the Rangers even begin to talk contract extensions. As Diogenes also points out there is the farm system. Last year the Rangers drafted 0 draftees in BA's list of the Top 50 draft prospects. It was all about "signability". Signablity doesn't build a core that wins division titles; much less World Series.
Recall that Nolan Ryan confirmed that Texas has reallocated its international signing budget towards major league payroll and had to cease operations of one of its two Dominican Summer League teams. Eleven players who have donned a Rangers jersey this season began their professional careers after signing as international free agents: Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero, Frankie Francisco, Max Ramirez, Joaquin Arias, Andres Blanco, Pedro Strop, and Guillermo Moscoso. So this operation needs to be funded again as well.
IMO Lee is the greatest thing since sliced "Wonder" bread, but also IMO he will cost way to much in years. There is lot of damage that needs to undone from the Hick's financial mess and the core group needs to be extended a couple of years before the Rangers go all in on high risk FA pitching.
"She enjoys New York as much as anyone enjoys New York." - Which is to say a lot other than the combined smell of stale urine mixed with old garbage and the everpresence of assholes.
LOL hefe - I dunno, man - I've lived in both Manhattan and Dallas, and Dallas gives NYC a run for its money in # of assholes.
Anybody else having a tough time working today?
There is not a chance in hell that Dallas gives NYC a run for number of a-holes. Not even close.
I can't believe someone even said it. That's like saying the equator is a lot like the North Pole. GMAFB.
dub - well I've lived in both places, and that's what I've seen. Some of the friendliest people I've ever met in my life were in NYC.
@WSGJ, I have been looking at the clock thinking about tonight since I woke up this morning. Less than 6 hours to go.
May the best Rangers team win.
@Jon - pitchers that count as free agents don't normally work out all that well. That's pretty much true, but in analysis, Cliff Lee would count as a trade acquisition. Trades and the farm system are the best way to build an organization. I think we can both agree on that. It may be nitpicking, but Cliff Lee won't count as a free agent signing if he stays in Texas. We would technically sign him to a free agent contract, but he would have been acquired via trade. I'm certainly not saying that signing a 32 year old pitcher to a 6-7 year deal is the smartest move, but it would hurt the performance of our trade acquisitions not our free agent signings.
"It may be nitpicking, but Cliff Lee won't count as a free agent signing if he stays in Texas. We would technically sign him to a free agent contract, but he would have been acquired via trade."
Dave H - I was focusing on the free agent contract piece and using the language somewhat loosely. But the fact that Lee was acquired via trade acquisition is important and not nitpicking.
Lee will obviously be a Type A free agent. If the Rangers resign Lee the deal is done with no draft consequences to the Rangers since he was acquired via trade acquisition. However, it is my understanding that if Lee signs with another team, the Rangers receive two first-round draft picks the following June – a first round pick of the new team and a “sandwich” pick between the first and second rounds which in my mind makes the loss of Justin Smoak and Blake Beavan to the Mariners a bit more palatable.
Thanks for pointing this out and please correct me if I am wrong.
Now if I correctly understand the impact of FA's (and trade acquisitions) on the Rule 4 draft, maybe you can help walk me through the arcane world of the Rule 5 draft (after which my head will explode!).
Lee will get six years, whether it's from the Rangers or the Yankees. The Rangers have to decide whether Lee is the guy who in the playoffs can deliver 2 more ALCS titles. You have to pay through the nose to get those people, pure and simple.
They have enough to win more AL West crowns without him, and undoubtedly whoever signs him may indeed regret years 5 & 6 on the deal. But right now he enables the Rangers to play with anybody.
By the way, I sat in the bleachers in NY for game 5. While I didn't wear Ranger colors (momma didn't raise no fools), feces throwing baboons are better behaved than Yankee fans out there. NY's Finest were kept quite busy trying to keep the peace.
Barring injury, I think Cliff Lee has the wits to remain a good pitcher even after he loses a few mph's off of his fastball. Is there any reason to think he can't be even better than Kenny Rogers or Jamie Moyer or Andy Pettite were at ages 35-38? I'm not too scared of giving him 6 years.
Jon - you've got the rule 4 draft correct, but I'll get fairly specific for you. Type A/B free agent rankings are formula generated rankings from the Elias Sports Bureau. The players are divided into 5 groups and a different formula is used for each with a 2 season sample size. Here are the groups:
1 - C
2 - 1B/OF/DH
3 - 2B/3B/SS
4 - SP
5 - RP
Type A is designated for the top 20% of the players in that position group. Type B is for player that fall between 20-40%. All players are ranked and given a compensation type (A, B, or none). Let's say that every 1B/OF/DH who was entering free agency this offseason had put up two consecutive seasons of Jorge Cantu (the Ranger) offense, but Morneau, Teixeira, Votto, Pujols and the like were still putting up big numbers. If that were the case, there would be no draft pick compensation for the actual free agents.
For a Type B free agent, the team that loses that player receives a supplemental first round draft pick. For a Type A free agent, the team that loses that player receives a supplemental first round pick and the first round pick of that player's new team with the following exceptions:
1 - If the team that signs a Type A free agent picks in the top half of the first round, then player's former team gets a second round pick.
2 - If the new team signs another free agent with a higher Elias ranking, then the old team gets then new team's second round pick - this could also fall to a third rounder if the new team signs two other free agents who rank higher.
The first exception doesn't seem likely to affect any pick we would get for Lee; however, there are a few free agents with a higher ranking than Lee (Victor Martinez, Jason Werth, Rafael Soriano, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter). I wouldn't worry about Rivera or Jeter messing things up, but it's not impossible to see the Yankees shell out for Lee and two out of Werth, Soriano, and Martinez.
Anyway, I don't even remotely have any interest in getting into the rule 5 draft right now, but perhaps some other time.