(Not) Spending Like A Champion
Joey Matschulat
Julio Borbon celebrates his tremendous 0-for-1 ALCS performance on Friday, October 22nd.In (probably far) less than 12 hours, the American League-champion Rangers will embark upon a three-hour flight to the land of the Giants, and in less than 72 hours the two pennant-wielding adversaries will engage in combat for the right to hoist the first World Series trophy in the history of their respective cities (yes, I'm still in a mild state of disbelief), and there is definitely something to be written about that impending battle ... but for this morning, at least, I hope you'll indulge me as I rail on something residual from the national ALCS coverage: the "David vs. Goliath" comparison.
You know exactly what I'm talking about, too: the contrived narrative that focused on the big, bad, affluent (and history-rich) Yankees matching up against the long-downtrodden and low-spending Rangers. Granted, this was an easy angle to cling to (particularly given the historically enormous $152 million payroll disparity between the two clubs), and one that I saw more than a few good journalists interweave into their coverage, but is it accurate? Sort of, but not especially. Is it misleading? Yes, at least more than it is accurate.
I've mentioned this in passing already, but the single biggest thing that bothered me about the "David vs. Goliath" characterization was that it was implied -- to me, at least -- a significant series advantage being imparted to New York on the basis of all the money they spent on talent. This, of course, was an outright fallacy from the outset of the ALCS, as the most reputable prognosticators generally had the series going 6-7 games, and it further decomposed as the Rangers made it clear they were even better than the Yankees' equals. Final payroll tallies don't really have a place in the discussion.
Some took it a step further and used win totals -- or maybe third-order win totals, in which the Rangers and Yankees were separated by a full seven games -- to support the narrative, but the end-of-season Rangers were considerably more dangerous on the whole than, say, the June 1st Rangers (sans Cliff Lee), and I suspect that the ability to strip the fifth starter and the back end of the bullpen and the persistent need to dole out rest days to the lineup regulars -- and playing time for backups in the vein of Andres Blanco and friends -- out of the equation, and then go to war almost solely with the 18-19 best players on the playoff roster, drew the Yankees and Rangers far closer together talent-wise than their regular-season or third-order records would indicate.
None of this is to say that the amount of money a team dispenses to its on-hand talent is not important, but where the real importance lies is in getting to the playoffs in the first place, rather than succeeding there. (I have yet to find a study detailing the correlation between the post-season win-loss records of teams that make it to the playoffs and their corresponding team payrolls, but I have a difficult time fathoming that there is a meaningful correlation over a 10-year period.) Statistician Tom Tango addressed this back in mid-April by analyzing the correlation between "playoff-level" teams (89 wins or better) and their payrolls relative to league average over a period spanning 1998-2009, and ultimately he found a "very strong link" between payroll and winning; furthermore, he boiled down a team's chances of making the playoffs to the following equation:
Percent chance of making the playoffs = (Payroll Index / 2) - 23, where Payroll Index is equal to (team payroll / league-average payroll) x 100
Over that 12-year span, the Rangers' final tally of 89-win seasons (two) predictably failed to match the high expectations set by overall above-average payrolls, which brings me back to one of my older arguments: A-Rod didn't sink the early-00s Rangers. Poor talent evaluation and decision-making, which bred worse pitching -- which was a direct function of poor evaluation, be it in the draft or free agency or the trade market -- and overall inefficient spending played a far bigger role in killing those teams than the A-Rod contract. Spending big money is obviously not an inherently flawed "strategy," but you need the right personnel to oversee it, and the right talent evaluators in advisory roles.
And after years of grossly inefficient spending, the 2009-10 Rangers were finally back on the right track, with this year's ballclub spending the second-lowest number of marginal dollars per marginal win ($1,064,023) in baseball. But this is a descriptive stat more than it is predictive, and that second-lowest mark won't continue, as the Rangers have hit the final step in their contending plan and are now in a position where we would reasonably expect a precipitous climb in payroll -- and, yeah, they're going to need it if they have any designs on keeping Cliff Lee, or Josh Hamilton, or C.J. Wilson, let alone acquiring additional talent at other positions of relative weakness like catcher.
The Yankees will probably be back next year, and probably the Rangers, as well, and the odds will be decent that they again clash in October and are again close talent-wise. If this happens, there will likely still be a payroll disparity of no less than $100 million existing between the two clubs, and somebody will yet again raise this in the context of the playoffs, and maybe even invoke that same Biblical comparison. You can safely ignore dollar totals at that point, because if things have reached that point, the dollars will have already accomplished their primary goal ... and then, with any luck, crack a smile at the thought that the Yankees have to go through the defending world champions.
Reader Comments (28)
Love the Borbon picture and caption.
"...with any luck, crack a smile at the thought that the Yankees have to go through the defending world champions."
Awesome...
Excellent point. This money issue is along the same lines as regular season winning percentage when it comes to predicting playoff success. I don't understand the national media (Rob Neyer in particular) basing so much off regual season wins in deciding which playoff teams are better. I am convinced that if the Rangers needed to win 95-97 games they could have. But they didn't. Just as Jeter and Arod making more money than say Elvis and Hamilton doesn't neccessarilly make them better playoff performers, more regular season wins or division doesn't neccessarilly mean you will be a better playoff team.
May I disagree?
I don't think Yankees will be back next year and if they are they will not nearly be as good.
Why?
34- Burnett
34- Wood
35 -Berkman
37 -A-Rod
37- Jetter
40- Poasada
41- Pettette
41- Rivera
The numbers are the ages of the players.
These are not bench players for the Yankees. They are everyday starters and they have nobody in line to replace them. They cannot hope to win without most of these guys violating the laws of nature and refusing to grow old. They were extremely lucky that none of them spent significant time DL's this year.
Forget signing one pitcher. They don't need Cliff Lee as much as they need at least three starters behind Sabathia. They need a starting catcher. A-Rod and Jetter are fence post defensively, they catch what they can get too but the number of balls they don't get to is the problem. Kansas City may have a better starting outfield.
I think the Yankees may be in for some bad years. Especially if they simply try to patch holes or add one more piece to get just one more pennant. They remind me of Atalanta which has dropped from a perennial WS contender to a marginal team trying to squeak in as a wild card when they traded for Texeria.
They should not offer Jetter or A-Rod or Pettette or Posada contracts. They should hope that someone signs them and get the "A" class free agent draft picks. They should trade Sabathia.
If they wait a year (And I hope they do) it will be too late.
Well, I agree that the Rangers are more talented and I agree that the difference in salary didn't help NYY much in this series.
But the insidious thing about the Yankees ridiculous revenue stream is that they can pay $30 million per year for Cliff Lee (I cringe at the thought) and $20 million per year for Carl Crawford and on into infinity. The only thing that will keep the Yanks from being able to field a great team is IF they can't find the super-free agent at each position that they need in the offseason. Because they get 90% of the FA that they target.
But Cliff had an excellent point in the message right above me. The Yanks are aging fast and don't have nearly enough talent in the system to replace the talent that is quickly aging on their roster.
So maybe Cliff Lee will take that into consideration and accept the Rangers (slighty, I hope) lower offer this off season. I am sure he is smart enough to take into account that Texas has no state income tax and the fact that the cost of living here is WAY under the cost of living in NY. If so, I would think Texas could offer him 10-20% less money and have his take-home pay in Texas come out almost identically to the higher gross numbers in NY.
Hey, that would be a great discussion topic.
@Cliff: I agree. They have too many holes to fill by just signing FAs. They are getting older and could easily have a season in 2011 like Boston did in 2010.
NYY is good on paper, but some of their guys really underperformed all season long. Their pitching staff was not reliable, with those aging, declining starters they have + guys like Robertson who were terrible when it counted in the series. I think TB had better overall pitching depth than TX, but a worse offense, and NY with Texeira in there probably had a better offense overall, while Texas' pitching was stronger. But as many have said, pitching wins in the playoffs, and Texas' pitching shut down the Yankee offense. Even though he wasn't really hitting, it was a huge blow to them to lose Texeira for the series. And really, the bottom line was that Texas had Cliff Lee, and neither TB or NYY had anything to counter that kind of weapon. Texas is much more of a balanced team than both TB & NYY - so I guess it makes sense that they advanced.
The Giants series should be fascinating to watch, because SF has far better pitching than anything Texas has seen in TB or NYY - I think the series might even go 7 games. One thing TX has going for it is speed & the ability to manufacture runs. Also, some of their guys like Josh & Nelson can hit homers in that huge SF park.
Yah, NY has problems that can't be fixed by just getting Crawford and Lee, if that even happens. Posada should be DHing, but then Berkman is redundant. Pettitte is probably gone, and AJ is a liability. Sabathia is showing cracks, too, and considering all the mileage on his arm the past 7 or so years - that's not a good sign. Rivera, too, showed some cracks this season.
One thing we can be pretty sure about - NYY will keep Jeter for his entire career. No way he ever wears another uniform.
One more thing & then I'll shut up. If Texas doesn't resign Vlad, a guy I'd be very interested in bringing in here would be Berkman. He could DH, play some 1B in case Moreland slumps, and could even play some RF in a pinch. He's a great clubhouse guy, would undoubtedly get along well with the others, and wants to play in Texas. He's actually a perfect fit for the team. He's probably at a discount price now, too, and might be had for someone like Kirkman, or another "B" level surplus arm.
It would all depend on whether or not they decide to bring back Vlad.
Even if the Yankees have a great offseason, addressing the rotation needs, Jeter, Rivera, etc. they still have to finish ahead of at least one of Boston or Tampa to make the playoffs. Those two teams are strong, and the AL East could be decided by injuries and age issues -- serious disadvantage to NYY.
But the Yankees can and will swallow Burkett's salary if they feel he's permanently lost it. They will go hard after Lee and/or Greinke, AND pursue one of Crawford or Werth to beef up their lineup. And the odds of them finishing ahead of one of Boston or Tampa are still pretty good.
I'm struggling to figure out how the Yankees are going to replace Jeter at SS.
There isn't a FA SS they could sign. They don't have one in their farm system. I think what they should do is trade for Stephen Drew. Move ARod to DH. Move Jeter to 3B. Sign Crawford.
I hope they don't do that.
I thought I posted on Jeter before, but I don't see it.
So... It isn't clear that an option better than Jeter is immediately available to them. I don't see a FA SS worthy of replacing him by reputation for sure and probably by actual performance. I think their best bet is to trade for Stephen Drew, move Jeter to 3B, move ARod to DH, and pick up Crawford.
BTW... RE: Greinke to Yanks... Can't happen. Yanks are on Greinke's no-trade list.
I'm prediction, not dreaming, but predicting Lee and Greinke to Texas this offseason. JD has repeatedly talked to the Royals about Greinke, and Lee will not find a team better positioned to make the postseason the next 3 years, so I think he'll come back.
Oh, there's my Jeter post, and my other Jeter post.
This reminds me of the Bob Newhart show. "Hi. I'm Daryl. This is my brother Daryl and my other brother Daryl."
Perspective: I grew up with the Clint Murchison, Jr. as owner, Tex Schramm as general manager, Gil Brandt as player personnel director, and Tom Landry as head coach Dallas Cowboys.
What has so intigued me is that from 2006 and definitely by 2007 the Rangers adopted that model.
IF the Ranger swish to remain viable over an extended period of time yhey will have to avoid giving long-term contracts to FAs. The Face is a prime example. Big bucks, but very poor range. He should DH for what $14m per year?
The Yankees are a working case. Tremendous player name recognition, but could not even win their division and could easily have been swept by the Rangers for want of a bullpen melt down.
The Rangers need to extend the core: Hamilton, Cruz, and CJ and that will cost big bucks, but should be safe. I suspect Lee will command to many years to be worth it to any team other then NY or perhaps Boston.
The Rangers absolutely must draft and sign a better clas sthen they did last time. They absolutely must get back into the Latin/South Amercan market.
What the original Dallas Cowboys taught this observer wa sthe value of constantly refilling th epipeline, developing the talen, and the most unpleasent task of letting go when vets were past their playing years, but still trying to hang on. It was interesting the controversy surrounding just moving the Face to 3B; now try DH this year or next.
@Diogenes - If you want Berkman, you won't have to give up anyone. He's got an option that NYY is unlikely to excercise. He'll be free to sign wherever he wants.
For anyone one completely doubting the Yankees' abiltiy to compete in the future, please note that their farm system has taken a huge leap forward akin to the one the Rangers system took in the 07/08 Winter. They have an enormous wealth of pitching talent on the farm, and they've got perhaps the best bat in all of the minors. Now, that talent may be more likely to be traded than to actually play for the Yankees, but I would seriously hesitate to count them out of anything for the future.
That being said, I'm not so sure they're as likely to sign Cliff Lee as everyone believes. First of all, with the departure of George, I'm not sure his sons will ridiculously overspend just to get their guy. The other thing is that there are a lot of factors that could actually make Texas more appealing:
1) No one from the Rangers' organization or the DFW media has accused him of cheating.
2) Rangers fans haven't pelted his wife and family with trash.
3) As Spanky pointed out already, it's cheaper to live in Texas. Even if you ignore the state income tax difference (likely worth 5-10 million in the deal), everything else costs less in Texas.
4) Would you prefer spring training in Florida or Arizona?
I still think NYY will go hard after Lee, but I just don't see them going significantly higher than what CC Sabathia makes per year (23,000,000). My guess is that Lee will receive 25 million per year over six years.
By the way, 6 years 150 million from NYY is worth 275,000 less than a 6 year 140 million dollar contract from TEX. Does anyone think state income tax won't play some sort of roll in this?
I had no idea they were spending that much. Great article! Would you mind if I include a link to it on my website?
Dave H...state income tax does play a role...but every time I see that argument, people fail to recognize that it only applies to home games. Every player in the league earns money and pays taxes in New York, California, Illinois, etc.
As far as payroll determining things in the payoffs, of course it doesn't matter much in a 7 game series...Heck, even the Pirates or M's have a fighting chance in a short series. Payroll doesn't even matter all that much for a season. Where payroll bears fruit is in the long hall...the Yankees have missed the playoffs once in the divisional era. Once. That has everything to do with payroll. A Chan Ho Park or a Carl Pavano doesn't cripple their franchise.
Is there not some limit to the number of class "A" free agents that a team can sign in one season?
I just don't see the Yankees being able to fill that many holes in one off season.
Don't even try to mention "income tax" as a reason, the Lee's live in Arkansas so that argument is irrelevant.
Pryor...where he lives doesn't mean a damn thing. He's taxed based on where he earned the income. Half his salary will be taxed where his home games are played. The other half will be split up among all the other states the Rangers play in...
Maybe have at least a rudimentary understanding of things before calling someone else's argument "irrelevant"....I mean there's
...google and thinga you can use. Not to mention that Arkansas does have a state income tax...which shoots a completely different hole in your argument...
His wife lives in Arkansaw. He would probably maintain a residence in Arlington. If he changed his DL to a Texas one he would, effectively, have a second home in Arkansaw.
Good lord you are ignorant...
Actually I live outside the US. Because of that I have a fair underdtanding of how complex the residency requirements can be in US tax law.
Also I used to work in New York City and lived in NJ. I had to pay taxes in NYC and NY State on that income. NJ also would try and tax me on that income but I was able to deduct the amount paid to NY State but not all of it. However, if I had maintained an apartment in NYC and changed my residency to there I could have avoided the NJ taxes altogether as in not having to even fill in the forms. My wife and kids could have still lived on the shore and we would have been only liable for the property tax. In my case, it was cheaper to pay NJ taxes than to rent a flat EEEW Yuck City but that would not be the case for Cliff Lee.
It is true that professional athletes have to pay taxes in most of the states they play in even as a visting team. The Rangers never play in Arkansaw and Texas has no state income tax. If Cliff Lee were to sign with the Rangers, establish a residence in the state, get a driver's licence and open a Bank account he could claim Texas citizenship and it would not matter where his wife lived; even in Arkansaw or how ignorant I am. States cannot tax ex-residents who move somewhere else
"Residency" has nothing do do with anything when it comes to the apportioning of his income between various taxing jurisdictions. His income will be taxable where it is earned...in the states he plays. You were able to avoid paying NJ tax on the income you earned in NY because it was earned in New York...therefore you got a credit on your NJ tax return for taxes paid to another state.
Just because Cliff Lee opens a Texas bank account and lives in Arkansaw doesn't mean he will be able to avoid paying California taxes, Illinois taxes, New York taxes...in all the states he plays games (by the way, i have no idea where the hell "Arkansaw" is, perhaps you could enlighten me)
For every game his team plays in a state with income tax, he will have income of 1/162 of his salary...doesn't matter where his Diver's License is issued or what state he opens a bank account.
That is exactly what I said. However if he plays in NY then he would be subject to NY State and city income tax. He won't have to pay those if he plays in Texas except as a visiting team.