Cliff Lee's House Of Pain
Joey Matschulat
Around this time one year ago, the "hot" topics -- what a delightfully relative term -- of localized baseball discussion were the defection of Rudy Jaramillo to the Cubs, the Rangers' Arizona Fall League contingent, talk of team ownership changing hands before New Year's Day (hah), and the Rangers' tardiness in issuing post-season ticket refunds. Today, it's Cliff Lee vs. Andy Pettitte, in a Yankee Stadium playoff rematch that's been more than a decade in the making. Continue to embrace this very special moment in time, because October 18th isn't always going to be this meaningful to us in a baseball context.
Rather than beating you over the head with more trite hyperbole about how Lee is an unflappable big-game pitcher and so on and so forth (although I did find this column on his personal history to be refreshingly insightful), I'm going to fire three quick bullet points at you that probably haven't been crammed down your throat just yet, and then see where that ends up taking us:
● I wouldn't exactly call myself an adherent of Bill James' Game Score -- the underlying formula smacks of arbitrariness and appears downright esoteric on its surface, and is also tilted towards the modern-era pitcher due to its heavy reliance on strikeouts. Those criticisms aside, it does have some utility as a quick-and-dirty reference point for the quality of a pitcher's single start, and some tinkering with the Play Index database reveals the following: of the 2,560 individual post-season starts in major league history, only 379 have had Game Scores of 73 or better, of which five belong to Cliff Lee. Only eight other pitchers have amassed five such 73-or-greater Game Score playoff starts, and only three pitchers -- Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson, and Christy Mathewson -- have more than five. Lee could join that club as early as tonight.
● The Wall Street Journal's Mike Sielski chronicles the odyssey of Lee's cut fastball, a pitch which I touched upon in passing five days ago and still harbor an intense fascination towards -- primarily because an effective cutter not only has the ability to help equalize a pitcher's platoon split, but also possesses some power-suppressing abilities. Pettitte, who will serve as Lee's Game 3 adversary, has preemptively termed Lee's cutter "devastating," and while I'm not entirely certain that the regular-season numbers support that statement, the post-season numbers do: of the 51 cutters Lee has thrown this month, 41 (80.4 percent; MLB average is 68.3 percent) have been strikes, and 10 have been swinging strikes (19.6 percent; MLB average is 8.79 percent). Just filthy.
● And referencing Lee's regular-season numbers yet again, this seems an opportune moment to point out that of the 497 qualifying post-integration (1947-present) starting pitchers who stuck it out in the majors through their age 29-31 seasons, Lee's total wins above replacement in his age 29-31 seasons registers at 16.6 WAR -- a mark just inside the top 15 and a few ticks higher than those of both Curt Schilling (16.3 WAR) and Roger Clemens (16.0 WAR). The bulk of the pitchers above Lee on that list logged no fewer than 750-800 innings in their three qualifying seasons; Lee logged only 667 innings. If one were to use FanGraphs' FIP-based version of wins above replacement instead of Baseball Reference's version (which places a far greater emphasis on actual runs allowed), Lee might well vault into the top five.
That Lee's an established monster in whatever setting -- regular season, post-season, you name it -- is an absolute certainty. And the prospect of Lee posting another 2-3 starts of this caliber has started me thinking about something: if Lee singlehandedly pitches the Rangers into the World Series with, say, excellent Game 3 and Game 7 starts, and further cements his legend and fan base throughout a baseball-crazed Metroplex, just how difficult does it become for the Rangers to justify not bringing back Lee to their fans? It's undoubtedly one thing if the Yankees throw down $150-160 million for Lee (which is too rich even for my Lee-adoring blood), but with the Rangers awash in revenues and coming off their greatest season, I get the sense that there's going to be a prevailing urge to see the top-performing pitcher (arguably) in franchise history retained ... even if it takes going all out at the six-year mark and eschewing good fiscal sense.
Note that I'm not necessarily advocating that the Rangers give Lee, say, $135 million. I know I'm more comfortable than I was previously with going above and beyond the constraints of a five-year deal, but I'm not yet clear on where I stand beyond that. I also know that a Lee-bereft 2011 rotation with some regression factored in will probably be a letdown, and that Texas needs a dependable/quality arm of some sort to ensure continued divisional favorite status; nobody wants this team to be a one-year wonder, particularly after finally learning what winning baseball feels like. And, internally, I'm grappling with the age-old risk vs. reward question, and trying to remind myself just how dangerous nine-digit contracts for pitchers really are. The trouble is that I'm not getting very far.
Maybe this isn't the time or the place for this discussion. Hell, I know it isn't. But I'm watching the minutes tick down towards the 7:00 p.m. hour, and envisioning another dominant, Lee-perpetrated assault on the Yankees, and realizing just how much I want the Rangers to be in this position every single year, and wondering how on earth that can be possible without Lee in the fold. That's something we can all wonder about in good conscience without diverting our gaze from the immediate task at hand.
Reader Comments (27)
My question is this, Has a pitcher ever reached The Hall based primarily on his post season performance?
It has happened in football. Don't believe me? Run the numbers on Terry Bradshaw and his career 70.9 passer rating that includes six seasons were his rating was under 70. But put him in a must win game in the playoffs, and who would you rather have? Joe Montana, and that's probably it.
Lee would need probably 8-10 more seasons of 08-10 type seasons to have the regular season stats that would make him a part of even cursory Hall consideration. But what if his stats were accompanied with a post season resume that made Sandy Koufax envious and made Bob Gibson wish we could throw at him?
I don't care what he does as long as it includes 3 for 3 against the yanks in the playoffs and many more years in a Ranger uniform.
I heard on the radio this morning that the Nats are considering $160m and 8 years for Lee.
The weird are getting weirder.
In a past piece, Joey, you mentioned the potential added revenue for just making the postseason. Is there any info like that that gives figures on what a WS would bring revenue wise?
You just have to throw the bank at Cliff (within reason) if he hauls us all the way to the WS.
I am cautiously excited about Lee's start tonight. The Rangers, postseason, Yankee Stadium... I walk around cotinuously looking back over my shoulder.
The Yankees are a good hitting club (as we know). Lee pitched nine innings and threw a lot of pitches (120?) last game. Both teams know this is a critical game. Will not be surprised if the Yanks manage 4 runs against him. The Rangers need to continue to score, block out the crowd. And the bullpen will have to close it out.
Pettite has expressed concern over establishing his rhythm tonight early the game after a long rest and few starts lately. My dream is that Andrus gets on base in his first at bat and causes Pettite to balk or gets to 2nd on a steal, passed ball, etc. Disrupting Pettite's rhythm early on should be part of the Rangers' game plan.
Meanwhile, we know it sometimes takes Cliff Lee an inning to settle into his usual awesomeness. I'm sure the Yankees will come out swinging aggressively, so I hope Lee's location is top notch from the get go. The Yankees are a patient team, so hopefully having to get aggressive early in the count throws them off a bit.
Excellent piece Joey. Top shelf stuff. The key tonight will be getting another early lead. Lee just seems so much more dominant when he has a lead and can get even more aggressive to counter the hitters trying to force things a little bit.
I have seen and heard that this is a must win for the Rangers tonight but I'm not sure that it is. With Burnett pitching tomorrow and CJ for us on Wednesday, I think we will have an opportunity to win any or (gasp!) all of the games in the Bronx. I really like the way our boys are hitting and running right now. That said, we really need to win tonight to feel good about taking the series. I'm already a basket case.
As much as I love Lee, I can't see giving him anything north of a $100M. I say JD offers 4 yrs/$100M... take it or leave it. That makes Lee one of the highest paid pitchers in the game... and it gives him another shot at a fat contract 4 yrs down the road, where he will obviously be past his prime but likely still great enough to warrant another 2 or 3 yrs at $15M plus.
If the Yankees win the AL pennant, the smartest move in 2010 will be moving Pettitte from the game 2 SP to game 3 SP. He is a masterful post season pitcher and could very well nuetralize the "Lee effect".
As someone above pointed out, the Yankees will hit the ball... and if Lee has another slow 1st inning, things could get out of a hand quickly.
I still like our chances... and even though it's hard to imagine at this point, the Rangers could very well be heading to the World Series.
6/$132m and don't sweat the small stuff
Pettite is probably not a HOFer on regular season alone, but those 19 (and counting) career post-season wins will probably get him in. Assuming the steroids mini-scandel he had dosnt keep him out.
Lee KNOWS how to pitch. Who is to say, with his command, that he can't be a very good pitcher even after he gets a little older and loses a little off the fastball? Jamie Moyer did it for a long time and I don't think he was ever as good as Cliff Lee. I think Cliff Lee is the real deal and will be a great pitcher for at least 4 years and will probably still be a very good pitcher for a few years after that. If money is the only obstacle, pay the man.
NIP NIP NIP
Can't wait for the game tonight. Texas always seems to shoot themselves in the foot, yet they somehow escape - they've done that all season long. Here's to hoping tonight will be another example! Thanks for all the great coverage all year, Joey & Josh.
Lee won't re-sign with Texas because of the heat!!!
What do I win?
Hey, Joey, you got a link from Dave Pinto at Baseball Musings, and he has this to say:
(I’m not sure what qualifies as modern. Bill invented the score in the 1980s before strikeouts boomed in the 1990s. That was before anyone hammered down the relation between high strikeouts and low hits. I suspect if Bill were to redo the formula now, strikeouts would get more weight and hits less.)
Interesting. Strikeouts certainly seem important to many successful pitchers in the 60s and 70s, but I haven't looked up league rates year to year to test my anecdotal memory...
Joey, is that Sherrington article the one you meant to link in paragraph two? I wondered if you meant this one, which mentions Lee's son having Leukemia and how his wife/family have handled all the moves. They seem to like being close to Arkansas, FWIW.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/101810dnspo1aleelede.26427a8.html
Cliff Lee takes away too many innings from Matt Harrison.
5/110 is what I had in mind before the playoffs began, but I am beginning to be more open to the 6th year.
I mean, the contract will either pan out or it won't...if it doesn't, the franchise is pretty much the same amount of screwed. There is such huge upside as well...a title combined with keeping The Man...might move the team closer to the "big market" status that is deserving of the Metroplex. Gotta take the risk, IMO...
@Pabloesque: Interesting angle. Shorter contract with more money might be enticing. Perhaps you come to Lee with two package options? One short (perhaps 3 years @ 75 million) and one long (6 years @ 120 million). Of course, with the long contract, you could have a club option and all that stuff...but perhaps you allow Lee the option to decide what type of contract benefits him?
I do think any pitcher his age would be crazy to do anything other that the longer contract, but I think Lee would respect the Rangers more if you basically asked him, "What kind of contract are you looking for and how can we serve you?"
I know people are afraid of the AROD think again, but this isn't THOSE Rangers. Signing Lee, with this current talent-base and future infusion of farm-talent, gives you the opportunity to compete for a WS title over the next 5 to 7 years. I think we would be crazy NOT to sign Lee at almost any cost.
BTW, don't you consider a trade for Greinke this off-season as well?
Who turns down Holland, Scheppers, and Beltre for Greinke?
How many World Series do we play for with Lee, Greinke, Wilson, Lewis, and Hunter in the fold for several years?
The point is that this team is THIS good despite such a modest payroll. Now is the time to start with some of that payroll flexibility that was promised 5 years ago. There are a lot of options now.
Batts and Balls: I turn down Holland, Scheppers and Beltre for Greinke.
I would rather have Holland than Hunter in that #5 hole.
Lee is going to cost way to many years.
Batts and Balls: I also turn down Holland, Scheppers and Beltre for Greinke.
Everyone suddenly thinks we have NYY payroll. Remember, there is going to be a ton of money going to arb this next year and thereafter. It would be nice to try and extend some existing contracts as well in order to perserve the core of this team. Also, the club needs to restart it's Latin American signings and draft more aggresively. Both of these were heavily curtailled due to the fiscal crisis.
A-Fraud proved that one (or even two super stars; even pitchers) do not a TEAM make.
This team could double its payroll and still not be paying out what its market bears. That's plenty to do everything I mentioned, including extending many of your arbitration guys.
It's not about spending tons of money, it's about spending wisely. AROD wasn't smart money because the team was a half-a-dozen players from being good. Today, it's all just bonus.
I like Holland too, but there are still prospect-y issues surrounding him. Greinke has two more year's at around 10 mil per. Before the season, I don't make that trade. Now, I do.
Newberg has long talked about a "Step 5" to put you over the top. I think the Rangers have positioned themselves to make Step 5 more than just one trade. Prospects seldom amount to what you think they will be...IMHO, there's no better time than to turn some of that into actualized improvements on the field.
Sit on your laurels right now and not only do you run the risk of losing Lee, but also much of the momentum you've made as a team off the field. For the first time in, oh, ever, I'd be willing to bet people might actually want to play for this team. I think you have to take advantage of that. Do so wisely; but do it.
Here we go Rangers, here we go! (clap clap)
I hope Texas can sign Lee. I know it will probably take mega-bucks and all, but he's probably worth it for 5 years or so. Someone besides the Yankees should have top-line talent. Honestly, I'm not a Rangers fan, but I'm enjoying the Rangers in the postseason, and part of the reason is Lee.
Sports fans in Cablevision Systems territory will strike out for the second time with the National League Championship.
I HAVE BEEN AROUND A LONG TIME ,A YANKEE FAN FOREVER.I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE YANKEES WILL GO AFTER LEE AT ALL! AM POSTING THIS ON THE 20TH.THE YANKEES ARE DOWN 3 GAMES TO ONE ,THEY ARE FLAT AS A PANCAKE.IF THEY WERE IN THE ZONE ,LEE WOULDNT LAST 4 INNINGS! THEY ARE BURNT OUT.AGE AND A NOT A GOOD FIT MANAGER FOR THIS SITUATION HAS KILLED THEM.THEY ARE VERY PASSIVE ,WITH VERY LITTLE ENERGY .THEM AND TAMPA BAY STARTED FADEING ABOUT 3 WEEKS AGO.TEXAS IS AT BEST A GOOD TEAM,BUT THE WORN OUT YANKEES MAKE THEM LOOK LIKE A GREAT TEAM.ONLY 3 PLAYERS LOOK HUNGRY ,GARDNER,GRANDYMAN AND CANO.THE REST OF THEM ,EXCEPT FOR THE PITCHERS,ARE WAITING FOR TEXAS TO LOSE.GIRARDI MADE A TERRIBLE DECISION USING A.J.IN A MUST WIN GAME.LETS KEEP ENJOYING THE WORLDS GREATEST GAME ,BASEBALL