Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions (ALCS Edition)
Ian Kinsler mashes a run-scoring triple against the Yankees on Saturday, October 16th.1. How greatly are the post-season performances of Cliff Lee (fantastic) and Vladimir Guerrero (awful) affecting your opinion of their value going into 2011? In other words, if -- before the playoffs began --you didn't want to see the Rangers go any higher than, say, $115 million in their bid to re-sign Lee, are you now willing to see Texas run the bidding into $120-130 million territory?
2. Rank the degrees of trust you have in each of the Rangers' relievers right now, from greatest to least (listed here alphabetically): Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Michael Kirkman, Darren O'Day, Alexi Ogando, Darren Oliver, and Clay Rapada,
3. Given that Josh Hamilton is piling up walks in bunches and that Guerrero is doing very little at the plate right now, should manager Ron Washington contemplate bumping Nelson Cruz and/or Ian Kinsler above Guerrero and into the cleanup spot? Or would such a move disrupt the delicate balance of the lineup, as some might argue? (Note: Your thoughts on the importance of "lineup protection" will likely influence your answer).
4. Even though the Rangers will face lefties twice in New York (Andy Pettitte in Game 3; CC Sabathia in Game 4 or Game 5), is there still any semblance of an argument to be made for starting Jorge Cantu over Mitch Moreland at first base again in this series? And if the Rangers should somehow advance to the World Series, do you continue to carry Cantu?
5. Predict the final outcome of this 2010 ALCS following the format in this example: "Rangers win 4-2, Clay Rapada wins the final game." Or something loosely along those lines, anyway.
Open Thread, Playoffs, The Season
Reader Comments (54)
1. As for Lee, I am all for giving him $120-130 million. When is the last time this team had a true ace? Give him whatever it takes to keep him here.
Vlad is another story. I think you keep him around, but maybe give him more rest earlier next season so he doesn't die late. If he wants more money then this year, pass him on to the White Sox or Tigers.
2. Ogando, Feliz, ODay, Rapada, Kirkman, Holland, Oliver. Stick a fork in Oliver's old ass.
3. Andrus, Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, Vlad, MY, Murphy, Moreland, Fatlina.
4. Cantwho?
5. Rangers win in 6. Lewis wins 7 IP, 1 ER, 10K, 2 BB, 4 hits. Neftali with the save.
1. If Greenburg/Ryan can afford it, by all means pay the price to get Lee. I don't think there'll be much competition to sign Vladdy...sign him up at a lower rate.
2. Feliz - 80%, Holland - 30%, Kirkman - 60%, O'Day - 80%, Oganda - 90%, Oliver - 30%, Rapada - 50%
3. Yep...Cruz is dialed in. Stick him at cleanup, then Kinsler, then Vlad. If it makes Vlad mad, great! He can take out his frustration on the baseball.
4. No need to play Cantu again. If we advance, replace him with Davis on the roster.
5. Rangers bring the series back to Arlington, but bullpen continues to implode and Yanks win in six.
1. I feel the same as I ever did. Keep Lee if you can get it done for 5 years (with maybe a vesting option for a 6th year that would ensure some sort of health and effectiveness going into that year), at $100-115M. If it gets above that, take the draft picks and explore other options. As soon as Guerrero was signed I applauded the deal and felt I didn't want him around too long. If he was absolutely mashing I'd still feel that way. If the Rangers can find another reasonable option for DH next year I'd like to see them take it. Vlad doesn't seem to be able to handle a full season of play anymore so if they keep him they need to be prepared to rest him often.
2. O'Day, Feliz, Holland, Ogando, Oliver, Kirkman, Rapada. The first six I trust pretty much as I did during the season. I'm not at all afraid to put them out there in the appropriate situations, I'm not going to wring my hands over a few bad relief outings, it comes with the territory. I've never trusted Rapada very much and I still don't.
3. He should but he won't. I think moving the lineup might help, but we probably exaggerate how much in our thinking, and Wash wouldn't view it as appropriate treatment of his players.
4. Sit down, Cantu, let Moreland handle this.
5. The Rangers rotation outclasses the Yankees' staff, Rangers win in 7 with Feliz closing out Lee's stellar 8 inning effort.
1. depends on our Fox contract. Do the deal. Pitcher, Mentor, Fearless Teammate. Eventual pitching coach affecting every level of the minor leagues and scouting. Thats how you justify the amount, whatever it is.
Vladdy is killing Josh. Let our competition answer that question for you. He is not feared. Thanks for the help this year Vlad.
2.Ogando (ask Cano), Feliz, Oday, Kirkman, Holland, Rapada, Oliver
3.Don't contemplate, just do it. It's time. Andrus, Murphy, Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler, Young, Vlad, Segway, Moreland. NY is banking on us continuing to be stupid or stubborn, whichever it is.
4.Plate discipline, no fear, future, Sean Casey comp. Enjoy your ranch Jorge, you are a nice guy.
5. Colbyashi in 6. Cliff prepares for Doc and the boys from Philly.
1. Sign Lee to a reasonable long-term deal, but don't overpay like Hicks did with A-Rod.
2. O'Day, O'Day, O'Day, O'Day and then Ogando, Holland, Feliz, Oliver, Rapada, and Kirkman. I'd put Kinkman over Rapada if he didn't have a 'tired arm'.
3. Yes, definitely drop Vlad in the order to give protection to Hambone.
4. Play Moreland every game--he has excellent at-bats.
5. "Rangers & Lee Win 7th Game 3-1--World Series in Arlington Next!
@Dmax
1. Sign Lee. VG only if the deal is right. If we don't sign him then look for someone who can play 3b and let MY be our Paul Molitor.
2. ODay,Feliz, Ogando, Rapada, Kirkman, Holland, Harrison, Oliver
3. Cruz is our cleanup hitter next year even if VG comes back. Might as well start now.
4. Cantu should not leave the bench.
5. Rangers in 7 with Cliff Lee signing his new contract during the post game celebration after his 3rd consecutive complete game. He may follow Nolan into ownership someday.
1. Back up the Brinks truck for Lee
2. Feliz, Ogando, O'day, Holland, Oliver, Kirkman, Rapada
3. Absolutely. And move Kins to the 2 hole.
4. Moreland should play every day
5. Rangers in 6. We just punished their 2 best pitchers and we havent thrown ours yet. This team won't be awed by the big city lights and pressure of the Bronx. We win games 3 and 5, then finish it Friday night at home and I have a solid 4 day hangover as a result.
1. Need to go all in for Lee
2. O'day, Ogando, Holland, Feliz, Kirkman, Rapada, Treanor, Teagarden, and then maybe Oliver
3. There's no rule that says you have to use a desigated hitter. If the only options are October 2010 Guerrero or Superman Cliff Lee, I might just let Lee hit for himself in Game 3
4. Cantu doesn't belong on the roster
5. Rangers in 6. Feliz gets his first 6 out save.
I think you need to look at questions 3 and 4 together. Decide who are your best players right now - this week - and put them out there. Lineup might be Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler, Murphy, Francouer, Moreland, Molina. The other night Harold Reynolds was comparing Lee's great game 5 performance versus Halladay and Lincecum, and to explain why he thought Lee's was better, he said "it was against an American league lineup. He didn't get a break with the pitchers spot!" We are giving the Yankees a break with our cleanup spot. It splits our lineup into 2 run scoring sections instead of one continuous one.
Lee has proven, and I didn't think this before Game 5 against TB, that he is worth whatever it takes to sign him. Vlad is a killer when he is hot and kills the Rangers when he is cold. His future with the club next season may come down to the next few games. He is truly playing for a spot on this team next year.
Feliz- 90%, O'Day and Ogando-85%, Oliver and Holland-80%. Not enough work from Kirkman and Rapota to have an opinion.
Hamilton, Cruz, Vlad, 3,4,5. Washington hasn't shown the tendency to make such moves and since the offense has not been an issue in the past two games, doubtful he would make a change now.
No time left to wait for Cantu to produce.
Must recuse myself after being so hard on this team at times this season.
1) I'm in the minority here, but I'm still not sold on going all-in on Lee. Seriously, a pitcher with a bit of a checkered injury history? I might change my opinion if he gets the Rangers to the WS, though.
2) Frankly, I don't really trust any of these clowns right now, but if I had to rank them - Feliz, O'Day, Ogando, Holland, Kirkman, Oliver, Rapada.
3) Time to admit defeat and get Vlad as far away from the cleanup spot as possible. Put Cruz there instead. Leave Kinsler where he is, though - he has a demonstrated tendency to get his timing jacked up when you move him around.
4) Stick a fork in Cantu - he's done.
5) My prediction before the series was Rangers in 7, and I"m sticking with it. Rangers lead 7-1 going into the 9th after Lee pitches an 8-inning gem. The bullpen goes into meltdown mode, but they somehow escape, 7-6, with the Yankees leaving the bases loaded after C.J. comes on in relief and strikes out Cano to end the game.
get him he makes everyone better.
Felix, Oday, Ogando, Holland, and a tie for last Oliver and Rapada. Kirkman has
not pitched so .......
Cruz to cleanup. Not going to happen though.
We should change his name to "Canot" He needs a seat right next to Chris Davis.
Rangers win 2 of 3 in New York and win Game 6. Lee starts game 1 of WS.
POSITIVE VIBRATIONS BABY
I think Texas wins it in 6 with Colby going 7 innings and Feliz saving a 6-3 clincher.
(1) Give Lee whatever it takes. We have a true staff Ace and we dont want to let him get away. Vlad still has much value with this team and will have big hits before it is over. I dont say give too much as we have other ways of occupying DH next year. but with the right offer I would like to see him stay.
(2) Feliz, Oliver, Ogando, O'Day, Rapada (used correctly) Holland, Kirkman
(3) Leave it the way it is.
(4) Cuntu should sit unless we face a junk throwing lefty. He cant hit even a decent fast ball. He still makes the roster only because we really have no other right handed / experienced options at first.
(5) Rangers win 4-2. Nelson Cruz is series MVP.
(1) For me, the question regarding Lee is whether he will age well, not whether this postseason makes him valuable enough the next 2 or 3 seasons worth overpaying in years 4 and 5.
I'm comfortable with 6/120 for Lee, because I think he'll still be a playoff-caliber pitcher in 6 years, maybe not a game 1 starter.
However, I'm also comfortable with trading Perez for Greinke. I'm probably hyper-aggressive at this point, and I really haven't thought this out in a cost-future benefit perspective.
(2) Doesn't really matter. At this point in the season, their roles are not going to change, unless there is clear injury or unfixable changes in their mechanics. Feliz comes in to close. Ogando/Oliver are primary setup. Holland, Kirkman, O'Day get you to the setup guys. Rapada is a specialist.
Keep running them out there in their roles and hope they get in a groove.
(3) I want to say yes, but see (2) with the added spice of Vlad's uncanny capacity to get white hot by taking a bounced pitch and depositing it in outfield bleachers.
(4) I don't see one. Ride the hot hand, even if it is only luke-warm. Bring in CD late to ensure critical scoops are executed.
(5) Game 6 win. 5-4. Feliz closes it out. Lewis gets into the 7th. Holland, Ogando get the Rangers through the 7th and 8th. Hamilton with a monster HR.
1. Lee is the only premier pitcher on the market and he will get major money from someone. The Rangers must match to have a chance and I think that number will come in around 6 years, $130 million. Do it. Even if he is only fully healthy for 4 years, those four years he gives you a chance to win when get to the postseason.
2. Ogando, Feliz, O'Day, Holland, Kirkman, Oliver, Rapada.
3. I don't believe in lineup protection much, and I also do believe the difference between number four and number five in the lineup is much at all. The main variable is the players reaction, so I'd just leave it alone rather than risk a negative reaction.
4. I do not want to see Cantu in a Rangers uniform again. Moreland should get the rest of the playing time from here on out, and Chris Davis should be kept next round for a late inning defensive replacement and occasional pinch hit against a righty.
5. Lewis solid, Hamilton homers twice, Rangers blow out the Yankees in game six to win the series.
MeanMeosh, Cliff Lee's IP the last 5 seasons: 202, 200, 97, 223, 231
This year, he's at 212.
One of these things is not like the others.
The only lefty with better consistency might be Barry Zito, and I would definitely prefer Cliff Lee to Barry Zito, even if I had to stretch my pocket book and sign Lee to a Zito contract.
1.) Lee has always been awesome. Outside of when he was playing through back pain, he's been money for the Rangers. I've always wanted to keep him. KG said in the gameday chat that Lee will age very well, so that calms my worries about him ending up in a Michael Young-like limbo. 6 years, 130 million. Do it, you bitch.
I still like Vlad, but I think the playoffs have shown that he's pretty much done.
2.) O'Day, Ogando, Holland, Feliz, Kirkman, Oliver, Rapada.
3.) I'd love to see Cruz and Kinsler move up in the lineup. While lineup protection may be overrated, I think it can certainly still be a factor. We're seeing it right now. Maybe a change in the lineup will be good for Vlad.
4.) DIAF, Cantu. Mitchlus Christ all the way.
5.) Rangers win the series, 4-3 on a Cliff Lee complete game, striking out 14, walking 1, and giving up 6 hits. Molina then tackles Lee, breaking every bone in his body.
3. Guerrero stays at 4. He's been there every game he's started. Clint Hurdle told me batting fourth means a lot to him. It's no time for Washington to be changing the core of the order. We sink or swim with Bad Vlad at 4.
4. Moreland should start the rest of the series. Unfortunately, the Rangers may have to carry Cantu in the World Series as a backup 3b.
1. It will be up to Lee not us on whether he is wearing a Texas uniform next year. As far as Vladimir goes, sign him to a two year deal with a club option for a 3rd. He has been the best DH production-wise in team history. He has some big playoff hits remaining in that bat.
2. Feliz, O'Day, Ogando, Kirkman, Holland, Oliver, and Rapada
3. For now, leave the lineup the same.
4. Start Moreland and carry Cantu
5. Rangers win 4 games to 3. Mr. Lee wins the final game....
1. The Rangers should (and will) make the best offer possible to Lee. The only way Cliff leaves this winter is if the Yankees give him $30 mil a year. Not going to happen. Guerrero's performance has nothing to do with how much money Lee gets.
2. Feliz, Ogando, Holland, O'Day, Rapada, Oliver. Kirkman can't be ranked because he hasn't been used. Props to Wash for going back to Oliver. I wouldn't have done it.
3. I don't see why we need to make any changes. The lineup has produced an average of 7 runs against the Yanks. This was also the same lineup that beat the Rays. No need to change. We've seen our guys bounce back from "slumps" before.
4. I said this before the playoffs started: there is absolutely no evidence suggesting Cantu is a better 1B than Moreland. On our team, Mitch was top-5 in OBP and he also had the best fielding percentage of any 1B to play for us this year. He has performed above expectations and has provided efficient ABs over and over again. Despite the "analysis" of scouts and observers alike, Cantu is not a better fielder than Moreland. Anyone who has watched both play this year will agree that Moreland holds his ground and some. But the real thing that separates Moreland from Cantu is offensive production. It's not even close. Keep Cantu for injury insurance.
5. Rangers win 4-3. MVP Lee ready for Series.
1.) With Lee, the bidding starts at $20M a year for five years. I think he can be had at around $23-25M and the Rangers should go all in. The dude has entered a zone these last couple of years and no reason to think he can't do it for at least a couple of more. With Vlad, I would see if he would stay for that option next year...I would not go higher than that. If he totally loses it next season, there are ways to work around that.
2.) The match-ups worked yesterday, but any recurrence of what happened Friday and Wash will need to consider going with the "hot" hand, whoever that might be. Here's my trust list: Ogando, O'Day, Holland, Feliz, Rapada, Oliver, Kirkman. For the Rangers to win this series, Feliz better make a big jump to the top of that list.
3.) I wouldn't mind dropping Vlad down to 6th and moving up Cruz and Kinsler, but it's not a big deal in my mind. The Rangers will be OK if they can get either Hamilton or Vlad going well, regardless of where they bat.
4.) Gotta go with Moreland. It's obvious he's swinging the bat so much better than Cantu, and he seems to be playing better defensively too. You can still use Cantu as a pinch hitter, though hopefully you won't have to.
5.) I originally predicted Rangers 4-1 with CJ winning Gm 5. Now I'll go Rangers 4-2 with Ogando the winner. I'm fairly convinced that if the Yanks don't sweep in NY, they won't win this series.
1) Give him whatever it takes. I thought this before the playoffs and Lee has slightly exceeded my expectations.
2) Darren O'Day, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland, Darren Oliver, Clay Rapada, Michael Kirkman
3) Swap him with Cruz (can you imagine the scores of these games if he were batting with men on occasionally?)
4) Cantu is done. Ride Moreland all the way. His defense has been better than Cantu's as well.
5) While now it wouldn't surprise me if we got Rangers in 6, I'll stick by my initial Rangers in 7 prediction. Lee goes 8 with Feliz closing it in a non save situation.
If that happens, it's been fun being a Ranger fan for the past ~28 years. Sadly I'll have a heart attack and die in this inning.
So many good ideas already posted.
1. Ownership has already said in interviews that "he's worth every penny" and "he's worth everything he gets." Done deal. He fills the ballpark, helps rest the staff, sells merchandise and will get team on TV. Vlad can stay at reduced money because even at hot and cold he's much better than the retreads we've tried at DH over the last 5-10 years.
2, Hard to rank bullpen when they're not being used in customary roles. Right now: Ogando, O'Day, Feliz, Holland, Kirkman, Oliver and Rapada. Stop using Oliver past 7th inning. Feliz looks like he's gained 30 pounds this season and isn't bending at the waist enough. He also isn't using a mix of pitches like he was. Not seeing his curve or changeup to make 100 look like 120. May want to look at Ogando as closer next year and move Neftali to starter.
3. Use speed at top to justify Kinsler to #2 and use excuse of "resetting the table" to move Vlad down. Andrus, Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy, Young, Vlad, Moreland and Molina. However, the day Young is batted this low is the day he bats in an old timer's game!
4. Must keep Cantu as backup, especially for 3B defense (which may have saved game one) had he replaced Young. With team leading in 8th and certainly in 9th, I want Cantu at third and Borbon in center...otherwise put two more pitchers on the roster if they're not going to play.
5. Can't top PATRICK's comment above on series outcome. I can actually see something like that happening.
1) Show Cliff the $$$, show Vladdy the door
2) Holland (<3 might be biased by my authentic #45 jersey), Feliz/Ogando, ODay, Kirkman, Oliver, Rapada with a big break between ODay and Kirkman
3) Leave the lineup alone, Vlad is about to run right in to one of his patented hot streaks
4) MORELAND MORELAND MORELAND MORELAND MORELAND. wonderful ABs all series.
5) Rangers in 6, 5-3. Cobra pitches 7 with Ogando/Feliz shutting the door. Cliff on to game 1 of the WS and I kiss Bengie Molina hard and long while he eats a cheeseburger.
1. Cliff Lee is worth it. Pay whatever it takes to get him. Despite not having a great post-season as yet, Vlad's overall season has earned the mutual option for next year exercised.
2. O'Day, Holland (in long relief), Ogando (only when starting an inning), Oliver, Feliz, Kirkman, Rapada.
If he's coming in with RISP, Ogando moves below Feliz. FYI I love Neftali, but he has GOT to get over the post-season nerves!
3. I don't want to tinker with the line-up. While it may seem advantageous to flip-flop Cruz and Guerrero in the order, I think Cruz in the 5-hole helps set the table better for the bottom of the order.
4. Moreland has earned the starts from here on out. He's not embarrassing himself at the plate and he's playing pretty good defense as well.
5. Got to go Rangers in 7 (although I'd prefer 6). Instead of talking pitchers, it'll be Hamilton, Cruz and Kinsler's combined 7-13 at the plate with 6 RBI between them!
1) Don't break the bank for Lee but go after him aggressively. I not, when can always go after Grienke, or maybe BOTH. That would really piss the Yankees off. As for Vlad, I love the guy, but he needs more rest if we're re-signing him. Maybe MY as DH and utility infielder Or if we had all the money in the world, I would go after Prince Fielder.
2)I want to see more Kirkman, Ogando, and Holland. Less of the Darren, especially Darren Oliver. Less Rapada. I really think Kirkman has the moxy to get the job done, but Wash has yet to give him a chance this series.
3) I like the idea of Hambone, Cruz, Ian, Vlad. Make Vlad mad by demoting him, and maybe he'll start hitting again. It worked when we moved Hamilton from 3 to 5
4) Get rid of Cantu at all cost. I'd rather see Chris Davis. He would have gotten Gardner out.
5) Rangers win in 6 and go on to beat the Giants in their first WS victory!
1. New York Times article, today, says Yankees once did whatever they wanted. If so today, they would sign Lee before game three. Since things have changed they definitely will sign him during the off season. Someone feels confident.
2. Shake'm up, pour'm out, Speed Kills!
3. Call me surprised if Vlade goes anywhere. He's been there, done that. The Lion Sleeps.
4. Moreland is The Man. Yankees beware of Mississipians carrying big sticks. It's Personal!
5. Let's see how youth handles rabid Bronxs dogs. Rangers got their grove on but CC won't be the pushover next time that he was this time. If you saw the Phillies fans signs then NY will be worse in the stands and street. I see Rangers winning. Feliz needs to chill if he is going to be effective.
1. The post-season performances of Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero do not affect my opinion of their value going into 2011. The Rangers should sign Lee for 5 years unless the deal prevents them from locking up both Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson two years beyond free-agency. If the decision becomes either/or, I prefer Hamilton/Wilson/and draft picks.
2. Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Michael Kirkman, and Clay Rapada. I would rather see Matt Harrison on the roster than Rapada.
3. Move both Cruz and Kinsler ahead of Guerrero.
4. The lefty/righty argument does not apply to Cantu. He underperforms regardless. Moreland should start every game at 1B.
5. Rangers win the ALCS 4-3 with Nelson Cruz hitting the series-winning RBI.
1. If they can afford it, yes. See if they can frontload the contract so he's not killing payroll in his late 30s. But I say, taking all their financial information for the future into account, pay whatever it takes to keep Lee up to the point that its totally unaffordable.
2. Good question. I'll go Feliz, Ogando, O'Day, Oliver, Holland, Kirkman, Rapada
3. I have no idea how much "disrupting" the lineup would do to everyone, but on the surface, I would love the lineup to go Cruz, Kinsler, then Vlad.
4. Yes start Moreland, and yes carry Cantu as backup. Decent defensively and can pinch hit against lefthanders for someone like Treanor.
5. Rangers win 4-3. Lee gives up 2 runs in 8 and the Rangers rock Pettite.
1. You want to win? YOu gotta pay for some free agents along with having a top notch minor league system. 120-130 million? Fine......let's just win, baby!
2. Feliz, Ogando, Holland, O'Day, Oliver.
3. Vladi will hit in this series. Don't mess with the lineup. Keep Cantu on the bench, please, for the love of the baseball gods PLEASE keep him on the bench and let Moreland play.
4. Please read #3 more than once if necessary. Moreland Moreland and MORELAND. I don't want to see Cantu on the field again in this series.
5. Rangers win series 4-2 with David Murphy and Nelson Cruz doing the damage.
Rooster - point well taken, BUT...Lee also missed the entire month of April this year, and then there was that little back issue in August. Not saying I wouldn't hand Cliff the keys to the Rangers' bank vault, but pitchers are unpredictable. That makes me naturally reluctant to throw big money at a pitcher, ANY pitcher.
That being said, especially if the Rangers make the WS this year, you'd have to think they have a legitimate shot of making a good run next year, too. If so, then absolutely, pay Lee whatever he wants. It doesn't matter if you end up flushing the last 4 or even 5 years of that contract down the toilet if you get consecutive (or 2 out of 3, or whatever) WS appearances out of the deal.
1) Don't re sign Lee if he hamstrings you in years 4 and 5. (trade for Greinke? if possible);
2) Feliz, O'Day, Holland, Ogando, Oliver, Kirkman, Rapada (Feliz will lock in before series is over.)
3) Leave Cruz where he is (don't mess w/success), drop Guerro, move Ham to clean up...don't care after that.
4) Gotta go with the consensus on Moreland. Cantu, you just keep thinking is going to pop, but time is short.
5) Against Karma for me to predict. But, if Rangers can get to game 7, like the chances w/ Lee, and with Wilson, Lewis, Holland, Feliz, et. al in the bullpen.
1. I would let Lee walk that is too much money for a 31 year old pitcher with a histroy of injuries inconsestincy I would offer Vlad a two year deal with a club option for a third.
2. Feliz 99%, Oday 95%, Oliver 90%, Ogando 85%, Kirkman 80%, Rapda, 70%, Holland 35%
3. leave the lineup alone it has gotten us this far it will workout it would be foolish to move Vlad he has never hit any where but fourth for us nor should he!!
4. Morland should start from here on out but keep cantu on the bench.
5. Rangers win it in 7 Feliz nails down the save by striking Arod out for the final out!!
I don't know that I'd say he has a history of injuries seeing as though he has thrown 200+ innings 5 of the past 6 years. That would be hard to do if you were injured all the time.
1. Do what you can to keep Lee here. I would let Vlad go unless you can really really get him cheap. I expect we'll keep him and overpay for him.
2. Ogando, O'Day, Feliz, Oliver, Rapada.
3. Do not mess w/ the lineup, all that proecting hitters poop is just that. Proof? The Yanks will keep pitching around Hamilton even if Vlad starts cracking Grand Slams.
4. No more Jorge. Goodbye. Moreland is already a Ranger folk hero. That 2-out opposite field RBI single was MASSIVE. MM is a stud!
5. This thing is over. I cannot believe we're not up 2-love. I KNEW the Rangers would win game 2, against the Yankees! In the ALCS! Rangers in six, Ogando gets win, Feliz scares us silly but gets the save.
3. Regardless of what anyone thinks about lineup protection, Cruz should be moved up to #4 based on the fact that he is a better hitter than Vlad at these respective stages of their careers. A .300/.345/.495 slashline pales in comparison to .318/.374/.576 in every single way. Cruz is a better hitter than Vlad, and so he should hit higher in the lineup. (Ditto for a similar Ian Kinsler over Michael Young discussion.)
Ain't this fun?
1. Doesn't change that much for Vlad, I think we should sign him, but no more than 8 mil a year, but I also think he is going to help us in the playoffs.
2. I trust them all except Oliver scars me a bit
3. I wouldn't change it, Vlad will come through
4. Rangers in 6, CJ gets the win, no save situation but Feliz closes it out
1. Yes.. you do whatever it takes to keep Cliff here. Before the playoffs started I didn't think it would be worth paying Guerrero to keep him around. He got $5 million this year, and he's probably going to want even more. I think you say a HUGE thanks for all he's done, but let him get his well earned money elsewhere.
2. Probably: O'Day, Ogando, Holland, Feliz, Rapada, Oliver, Kirkman (only cuz he hasn't played). If they eliminate the walks they should all be fine.
3. I don't think we need anything drastic, just flip flop Cruz and Guerrero. They want to walk Josh fine, pitch to Nelson.. Ok so you say now Cruz doesn't have any support, well they can't walk Josh and Nellie with Vlad AND Kins coming up. No need to move MY, Ian, Vlad, Cruz, Murph and everyone else around, just flip flop 4 and 5. Vald shouldn't be upset--he may actually get more RBI opportunities and better pitches to hit.
4. I would go with Moreland--he's earned it. I don't know if you would drop Cantu through from a possible WS roster. I'm not sure who you would replace him with and that we have anybody who have much of an impact compared to Jorge. It'd be very marginal at best.
5. Rangers in 7. Cliff Lee keeps driving his price up with another high-pressure masterpiece.
@ Nick.. I don't think CJ will pitch game in game 6 in any capacity
[1] I would like to see the Rangers throw 4 years and 100 million at Cliff. I think that's fair. And I'd like to see Vlad's option realized. Neither one has discouraged me more or encouraged me more than I already thought of them before the playoffs. Vlad, because I just believe he's slumping at a bad time and Cliff because I already knew he could do this.
[2] O'Day, Ogando, Feliz, Oliver, Holland, Kirkman, Rapada
[3] I think right now we should be looking at a regular lineup of Elvis, MY, Josh, Nelly, Ian, Vlad, Murphy, Moreland, Bengie/Treanor
[4] Cantu should be on the roster, but Moreland is the full time starter and is only pinch hit for in the event of a lefty with devastating breaking stuff coming in. Moreland still struggles mightily against off speed pitches from a really good lefty.
[5] Rangers win game 6, 6-0. Colby gets the W going 7 IP, 4 H, 8 K, 2 BB
1. I offer Lee 3 years garanteed at 25 million a year and then three more years with a buy out option.
2. Oliver is the only one I am worried about at this point.
3. I would Bat Kinsler 4th behind Josh. Elvis-MY-Ham-Kins-Cruz-Murphy-Moreland-Vlad-Catcher-
4. Oh yes
5. I predict that A-Rod will still be a knee-biting jerk regardless of the outcome whom I would mind seeing get beaned and die. I predict that Yankee's fans will still be beligerant (Insert favorite profanity) at the end of the series. I predict that the Yankees will still be the team that everybody except (insert favorite profanity) Yankee's fans really hates. I predict that the Yankees will NOT make the playoffs next year.
1. Paramount to sign Lee, not so much with Vlad.
2. One of the best relief corps in the majors. They will get their mojo back. Only one I'm iffy on is Rapada.
3. If Hamilton is the key to the offense as all the experts say he needs Cruz batting fourth. He will see more fastballs with Cruz behind him and he is the best fastball hitter in the world.
4. cantu should have been jettisoned and Davis retained for late inning defense.
5. Rangers in either 6 or 7 and should win the series irregardless who they play.
1. Let's wait and see what he does in NY, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, yes, give Lee anything he wants. Vladdy's been great, but I really think it's time to move Michael Young to DH. For that reason, Vladdy becomes expendable.
2. Darren O'Day, Alexi Ogando, Neftali Feliz, Clay Rapada, Michael Kirkman, Darren Oliver, Derek Holland
3. Yes, move Cruz up. He's on fire, and that will provide protection for Josh to hopefully start getting some pitches to hit. Put Vladdy in 5th spot. Keep Kinsler in 6th.
4. Mitch Moreland has earned the right to play. Keep him in the lineup. I see no reason to take Cantu to the WS if we get that far.
5. Rangers win 4-2, Nellie Cruz hits walk off homer in Arlington, Rangers shock the baseball world, head to first WS in history.
@Chris - sign Vlad for two years with an option for a 3rd? That's just crazy.
I would not resign Vlad. I would as suggested above move MY to DH and sign a 3rd baseman who can both hit and play defense for the same money.
But, the Rangers have some real issues coming up salary wise, not jut Lee: Hamilton, Kinsler, Cruz, Murphy & Wilson may all get rather hefty raises. Some might be traded for yeat more restocking prospects or a ship-load of cash (Wilson to the pitching poor Yankees for 150 million anyone?)
1. Does anyone remember what happened last time we gave a great player anything he wanted? 4 @ 90 with an option. I don't want to be saddled with a huge contract that we will still be paying for 10-15 years later.
2. I trust all of them in the right situation. Don't trust Feliz in a non save situation, Rapada against righties, Ogando with runners on, Holland in stressful situations, Oliver when he has had too much rest and pitching in any other inning except the 8th, O'Day against Toronto.
3. Leave it as it is, don't think you make a change like this in the ALCS. We have gotten this far and I do think Vlad will get some big hits soon.
4. Don't think it really matters but Moreland has earned his playing time.
5. So far my predictions have been off by one game. Originally predicted Rangers in 6, but since everyone has 6 or 7 I'll be contrary and go with 5. 4-1 Rangers CJ 72/3 IP 1 ER, O'Day 1/3 IP, Oliver 1 IP, Feliz 1 IP 3K.
1a) Offer Cliff 6/$132m and don't look back
1b) if I recall correctly, your choice with Vlad is to pick up his option for $9m or buy him out for $1m. No way I pick that up, since I can't see him getting that much on the open market. So, having paid $1m to buy him out, the question is whether to pay him market rate (I'm guessing $6m) to bring him back. I say no, you get better WAR/$ by using the roster spot to arb Francoer at ~$2m and spend the extra $4m upgrading either end of the battery. Frenchy represents exactly the kind of cheap RH bat we tried to find in Garko, Cantu, Matt Brown, etc. He gives Wash nice OF options paired with the LH Borbon and Murphy. He let's you get MY, Josh, or Nellie some "down" time @ DH (either due to injury, defensive inffectiveness, JD an extra $4m to play with over brfinging bacl Vlad. Betting on JD to do something smart with the extra money strikes me as a good bet.
2) Feliz, Ogando, O'Day, and pray Frankie gets better by the WS. Seriously, everyone after that is a crapshoot. Holland if long relief is needed.
3) Elvis, Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, Vlad, Young, Murphy/Francoer platoon, Moreland, Molina/Treanor platoon
4). Moreland every day. Cantu is 25th man on WS roster.
5) Rangers in 7. Cliff looks like he did in Rays Game 5.
1. Lee is must. Face it. We would most likely have been a one and done team without Lee there for game 5. If it takes 6 years of 22+ million, do it. Even if he is a #2 guy by year 4, you still have an absolute stud ace pitcher capable of bringing home several playoff wins, thousands more fabs in attendance per year, 18+ regular season wins, 200+ innings, etc. He's awesome. Guerrero should stay. He absolutely propelled this team early, and still has it. He went through a pretty deep slump in July, and he came out of it. He's slumping now, at a bad time. Of course, Josh hasn't necessarily set the world on fire in the postseason has he?
2. I trust the bullpen. Just gotta use them correctly Ron!
3. Don't change anything. If we can hang up 5+ runs damn near every game in the postseason with this lineup, nothing at all should change it.
4. I seriously don't understand why Cantu still gets consideration. We have given him more chances this year to do something than we gave CD. I say put crush on the roster when we make the WS. Cantu just straight up sucks. Plus, Mitch has made some excellent defensive plays at 1st, and he can play the outfield. Mitch has had some of the most impressive plate appearances by a Ranger so far in the playoffs.
5. I think we will win it in New York. The Rangers just have a knack for winning clinching games on the road, and I think we get it done early. Josh Hamilton beats the great Mariano Rivera in game 5, and Feliz strikes out the side in the bottom of the ninth, ushering in a changing of the guard in playoff closers.
1. I can't say anything new about Cliff Lee. He's been fantastic. It's so tempting to offer him whatever it takes to keep him for 5 years, but I just hope JD and crew don't stray from the plan that got them here. If Cliff Lee can fit into that plan, then sign him.
Vlad had a great first half and was a force in the middle of that lineup. I wouldn't mind having him back at a lower price, but it would depend on what options the Rangers have to replace him.
2. O'Day, Ogando, Feliz, Holland, Kirkman, Rapada, Oliver Oliver would be higher if Wash hadn't overused him in the ALDS. I'd like to have Kirkman as the 6th innning guy, O'Day/Rapada for the 7th, Ogando/Holland for the 8th, and Feliz for the 9th.
3. I leave Vlad cleanup. He hasn't been very good so far, but I like him up with runners on more than Cruz. I may be the only one who does. Cruz is great with nobody on base, but so far in in the playoffs, he has 3 homers....and 3 rbi. That's pretty telling.
4. I play Moreland but keep Cantu on the roster. I'd rather have Cantu available as a righty of the bench than have Davis in just to pick up bad throws in the 9th. I know Cantu hasn't done much, but just having him there as a righty on the bench affects what reliever the opposing manager brings in late in the game.
5. Rangers in 6 with Ogando getting the win in a 7-5 game. Then the "we should've had Lee this year" tour moves on to Philly for the WS.