The Hero Of The Rangers Franchise
Cliff Lee delivers a pitch during Game 5 of the ALDS on Tuesday, October 12th.The daylight has done little, if anything, to weaken my aura of disbelief. I think back to the years of utter hopelessness (2000-03), the years when the Rangers were perpetually projected for 90-plus losses (and with good cause), and then to the years of borderline contention (2004-06) where it was apparent Texas had something, but not enough of it to get to where they wanted to go, and then to the bridge years (2007-08) when the Rangers decisively shifted their priorities back towards building a sustainable powerhouse instead of a fringe contender, and how the overarcing objective in everything the Rangers have ever done was to experience nights like last night.
I also think back to the quote uttered by Chuck Greenberg during last night's jubilant clubhouse bedlam: "People talk about momentum [in baseball]. Momentum is your next starting pitcher, and we had Cliff Lee. We had momentum." You've probably already read somewhere today that only four other pitchers in post-season history -- Deacon Phillippe (1903), Don Newcombe (1949), Tom Seaver (1973), and Sterling Hitchcock (1997) -- had posted even a single start where they logged at least 10 strikeouts and yielded no walks, and that Cliff Lee has now accomplished that feat four times, but here's some deeper scouting-based insight on Lee's historic Game 5 effort from resident BBTiA scouting guru Jason Parks:
[Lee] started out slow, relying heavily on his two-seamer and cutter, trying to establish the hard stuff the first time through the order. While Lee was able to locate his cutter to both sides of the plate, he often elevated his fastball, running the pitch into the upper quadrant and into the wheelhouse of the hitter. More often than not, the Rays failed to make hard contact, allowing Lee the time to fine-tune his fastball command, and to establish a script that he would work off of the rest of the game.
The second time through the order, Lee started working his loopy 11-to-5 curveball (usually thrown in the 75-77 mph range), which was his money pitch [last night]. Lee had the Rays looking fastball/cutter, and used the curveball as his wipeout pitch, showing so much command with it that he was able to slip the pitch into the lower/outside of the zone, freezing the hitter. It was very impressive.
After showing the Rays the power of the curveball, Lee once again used the cutter -- which he commanded well all night, to keep the hitters guessing, most often resulting in weak contact -- or a scripted sequence that saw Lee set up with the cutter, and then use a change-up or curveball to disrupt the timing of the hitter. After Lee got into a rhythm, the Rays had no chance. In fact, if you consider the fact that Lee didn’t have great command over his fastball (missing spots, not necessarily throwing balls), the Rays did as much to help Lee as Lee did to disrupt them; they never really adjusted to Lee and seemed to look fastball, even after the secondary pitches were established.
All in all, I thought Lee pitched very well. He didn’t have the fastball command he is known for, but it's almost silly to critique, because the fastball still served its purpose, and his cutter and curveball were executed to perfection. I didn’t think he needed to pitch the 9th, but the Rays had given up at the point, and Lee was the reason they were already planning their off-seasons; might as well let the ace stand on the hill to receive the celebration.
I've written at some length about Lee's devastating cutter before (and in fact seem to possess an unhealthy fascination with the pitch, perhaps due to its power-suppressing properties), but here again it deserves some love: last night, Lee threw 33 of his 38 cutters for strikes (86.8 percent), and generated nine swinging strikes (23.7 percent), both of which are inherently monstrous numbers. According to the run expectancy matrix employed by Brooks Baseball, this particular pitch was 2.6 runs above average last night alone; that's on par with Tim Lincecum's slider during his historic 31-swinging strike start on October 7th, and better than any single pitch employed by Roy Halladay during his no-hit effort.
No matter what else happens in this post-season, and regardless of whether the Rangers succeed in their aim to re-sign Lee, he's earned a special place in baseball immortality, and cult-hero status among a sizable contingent of Rangers fans who are never going to forget the past week -- the week that the Rangers officially arrived.
Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (18)
"No matter what else happens in this post-season, and regardless of whether the Rangers succeed in their aim to re-sign Lee, he's earned a special place in baseball immortality, and cult-hero status among a sizable contingent of Rangers fans who are never going to forget the past week -- the week that the Rangers officially arrived.''
Joey: 100 percent agree. Seeing that masterpiece from Cliff Lee last night made all those hot and sweaty nights in the bleachers at Arlington Stadium worth it, exorcised the demons from Jose Canseco sending a homer over the wall WITH HIS HEAD, seeing Bobby Witt walk batter after batter, shaking my head in disbelief when Eddie Chiles wanted Don Zimmer to managed another game or two AFTER HE FIRED HIM, etc.
That's all over. This franchise can now become a legitimate destination for free agents because it is suddenly relevant.
And we have Mr. Cliff Lee to thank.
Doesn't this mean that the Rangers can longer get outbid on Lee this off season? His cult hero status will climb even higher if he wins again versus the Yanks and to let him go in the offseason in my mind would be a tragedy. Open the coffers.
Ryan and Greenberg will find a way to make the offer and I believe Cliff wants to stay. Every fan will buy a shirt or jersey with Lee's name on it. How much do merchandise sales offset the cost of a player? Which players would take less (Young and/or Hamilton?) to stay and play?
Great read, enjoyed Jason's quotes.
Curious if there's any concrete risk with throwing 120 pitches that late in the year. Lee's going to get his regular rest - does that overcome all fatigue issues, even after so many overall innings?
Cliff Lee's 2010 is one of the greatest seasons by a pitcher in the last decade. If it weren't for the back injury we'd be comparing this year to Pedro's amazing years a decade ago. Lee might go down in history as the greatest post season pitcher ever.
Thanks to Jason for the scouting report. I know that I felt complete and utter confidence with him on the mound. I felt that anything the Rays got would be pure luck. Seeing Longoria, one of the best hitters in the entire league, flail helplessly late in the game was one of my favorite Ranger moments ever. If he does that against the Yankees...I almost fear that might make the Yankees back up a Brinks truck for him in the offseason putting him out of reach. But right now I have a hard time imagining the 2011 Rangers without Lee atop the rotation.
Curious if there's any concrete risk with throwing 120 pitches that late in the year. Lee's going to get his regular rest - does that overcome all fatigue issues, even after so many overall innings?
I think one of the things the community as a whole has better grasped over the last year or two is that not all pitch counts are equal ... all else being equal, sure, you'd definitely rather have your starter throw 100 pitches than 120 pitches, but when you space that out over the duration of a nine-inning game you come up with a pitch-per-inning count of only 13.3.
Viewing that in conjunction with the conspicuous lack of "stress" innings in his CGSO (except for one, really), and Lee's robotically consistent mechanics, I don't fret too much over the fact that Lee ran up into the 120-pitch range. I doubt the Rangers are losing too much sleep over that decision, either -- particularly after the bullpen derailed what was looking to be a Game 3 celebration. Since the cost of permitting Lee to keep going appeared minimal, I can buy that this was a better-safe-than-sorry situation.
A Cliff Lee related question
Pretend for a moment that C.J. Wilson manages to out pitch C.C. Sabbathia which is something that is not at all out of the question and the Rangers win game #1. Now suposse that Colby Lewis out pitches Phil Hughes which is also very possible and the Rangers take game two. Cliff Lee goes 9 innings giving up 1 run and the Rangers win game three.
Do the Yankees at that point bring back C.C. Sabbathia? If so do the Rangers go for the kill in game 4 and start C.J. Wilson a day early? Or, if you want to exhibit bad sportsmanship do the Rangers announce that Tommy Hunter would start game 4 and bring Wilson in after one pitch after the Yankees have set thier lineup?
While a sweep by the Rangers is unlikely I can see them winnng the first three.
If the Rangers win game won the will not loose the series.
The entire Yankee faithful is calling game 1 a virtual lock. They should think very hard about that.
CC owns an ERA over 4.5 in his career at RBA... not at all "ace" caliber.
CJ owns a 0.00 ERA in the postseason... whether it's one start or not... on the road for your first playoff game against the best the AL East has to offer, that's very impressive.
CJ dominates lefties... good luck with that Yanks.
Our lineup absolutely raked against Tampa's touted southpaws, of whom David Price is easily as good as anyone the Yankees have to offer. A good right handed bat is the nemesis of LHP, and we have the hottest righties in the league right now in Kinsler and Cruz. Just wait until Michael Young and Vladimir Guerrero begin producing. Don't forget that we have another player that hits lefties very well who is going to break out at any moment and prove he deserves the MVP.
CJ got beat by the Yankees in April. Big deal. This is a night and day different team today. If he walks 2 or fewer batters, I think he wins this game going 7 innings giving up 2 or fewer runs. This game is as close to a must-win for the Yankees as they get. If they don't come away with a win with their #1 starter against our #2 starter, we have a tremendous advantage. We are going to have to score runs, but I have no doubt that this lineup can and will against Sabathia. Mikey, Josh, and Vlad, we need you guys to step up in a big way.
No, "the entire Yankee faithful" are not considering *any* game a lock. You always feel good about a game when your ace is pitching, but that's not the same as assuming victory.
CC is a great pitcher. He's also thoroughly capable of coughing up 4 runs in 6IP, which he just did against the Twins - a game that could easily have been a loss. Thankfully, the Yankees offense is pretty good too. CJ Wilson has had a great year (very impressive, considering it was a pretty unorthodox gamble to turn him into a starter in the first place), but he will have to have his A-control to go deep in the game against the Yankees. If a pitcher has any control trouble, the Yankees offense can grind him down and get him out of the game even if they're not really hitting him. Also, career ERAs at particular ballparks are very very very likely be unreliable (small sample size). Shall I cite Phil Hughes' ERA at Arlington? No, because it's meaningless.
I see some fans (of both teams) assuming that Hunter vs. Burnett is an automatic win. That game could easily be a slugfest decided by the bullpens. Tommy Hunter vs the Yankee offense does not strike me as a cakewalk. I have no confidence at all in AJ, but he's only part of the story.
The obvious advantage game (or games, if the series goes 7) for the Rangers is Lee vs. Pettitte.
The thing to keep in mind about all of this is anything can happen in a handful of games. Lee dominated the Yankees in his first WS start last year. He then gave up 5 runs to them in his next start (but Burnett had given up more so the Phillies won anyway). CC has had dominating games and he's had bad ones. And so on and so forth.
That's why they play the games.
I think Jake05 brings up a great point. Lee has shown that players (even pitchers!) can thrive in Texas and win ball games. Hopefully players will now see Texas in a different light.
I watched my first Ranger games in Turnpike Stadium. I clearly remember "The Seaon From Hell". I was there at the beginning and have spent nearly forty years in the desert.
To borrow from the immortal Martin Luther King,
"Free at last! Free at last. Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!"
Joey or Josh,
I know this is heretical stat stuff, but having watched so many "can not miss" FA pitchers crash and burn - how does Lee being currently 32 years old project out?
As always with FAs I fear the years they command not the amount per year.
Thanks
"I believe Cliff wants to stay"
I would love for Texas to sign Lee to a 5 year deal, even knowing that there's little chance he produces like this or avoids serious injury over those 5 years.
But how anyone can claim to know or to even believe to know what Cliff Lee wants is a bit much. It's mostly about money - and I doubt that Texas can offer as much as NY can - and don't forget about other rich teams like LAA or NYM or LAD who will be bidding too. Other factors are playing for a team that has a chance to win every year of those 5 years, and while Texas has had a good year, I think Lee is smart enough to know that he may find greener pastures elsewhere.
If this comment is based on perceptions of how great he gets along with his TX teammates, one must also consider that Lee gets along with all his teammates, and appears to be a genuinely good-natured and smart individual. So I don't think (his perceived connection with Texas players) that really means too much.
All in all I'd say that Texas will try to get him, but the odds have to be mostly stacked against them. That's the realist's approach, at least.
"The entire Yankee faithful is calling game 1 a virtual lock. They should think very hard about that. "
Yeah, well the entire Yankee faithful say a lot of things...
Yet another reason to celebrate this season! Basically if Hicks doesn't withdraw his home boy Dallas, Texas judge injunction he will be imprisoned for contempt of court the next time he goes to Liverpool. One could only hope.........
Court rules against owners in Liverpool fight
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hW6v-W2X9tuItHbkmfxml1Ew3WvwD9IRJSA00?docId=D9IRJSA00
LONDON — A British judge granted an injunction Thursday against the Liverpool owners that could clear the way for the club's sale to the parent company of the Boston Red Sox.
High Court Judge Christopher Floyd issued an order against the legal action taken in Dallas by American co-owners Tom Hicks and George Gillett Jr.
Hicks and Gillett's companies, meanwhile, filed a motion in Dallas asking that the Royal Bank of Scotland, New England Sports Ventures and Liverpool's independent board members be held in contempt and jailed.
Hicks and Gillett had obtained a temporary restraining order Wednesday blocking the 300 million pound ($476 million) sale to New England Sports Ventures.
The British judge ordered them to withdraw their action by 4 p.m. London time Friday (11 a.m. EDT) or be held in contempt of court.
If we somehow end up with a 3-0 lead, and they bring back CC on short rest, there's no way I pitch CJ on short rest. Lose Game 4 and force them to choose between a Wilson/Burnett Game 5 matchup and a Wilson/Pettite-or-Hughes-on-short-rest matchup in Game 5 for the kill.
If we win the first two games, you will be reading about me on the front page of the Wichita Falls Times Record News as the First proven case of spontaneous human combustion.
Great post, TheNatural. Be sure someone tapes it so the rest of us can see it if we aren't doing the same.