The Vladimir Guerrero-To-Texas Rumor That Just Wouldn't Die
Joey Matschulat
It's been nearly two months since the Texas Rangers and free agent designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero were first linked (albeit in a somewhat nebulous manner), and yet if you had slipped into a coma on November 14th and had just woken up yesterday without having yet seen the calendar, you'd never know that two months had elapsed solely from the media coverage of this rumor. Frankly, it's getting just a little bit silly. I'll show you what I mean.
As far as I can tell, here's what we've been fed by a wide-ranging assortment of media sources in the last 24 hours: (a) Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes initially reported that the Rangers had offered Guerrero a one-year, $7 million contract, after which (b) ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported that Texas was "unlikely" to offer Guerrero more than $5 million, after which (c) MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reported that the Rangers' one-year contract offer had been confirmed (but not the actual value), after which (d) a club source indicated that the Rangers hadn't made an offer to Guerrero at all and, furthermore, hadn't made any progress in weeks. So, who are we supposed to believe?
I have a rather difficult time imagining that all of this smoke would be materializing at the same time without there being some sort of fire (or smoldering embers, at least), but conversely, I don't think you can discount the possibility that Guerrero's camp is intentionally feeding misinformation into the Dominican media grapevine with the (innocuous) goal of keeping his name on the tip of everybody's tongue. Not sure I'm quite as inclined to buy into the notion that this is all designed to artificially inflate his market; such a stratagem could certainly work in theory, but major league teams know how this game is played and are presumably pretty wise to such old tricks by now.
Two months ago, I wrote that signing Guerrero made some degree of sense, but only if he could be nabbed with a one-year deal worth around $3-4 million; this opinion was formulated on the basis of Guerrero being enormously talented with some offensive upside potential, which is all well and good, except that you also have to incorporate the risk factors (e.g. defensive uselessness, age and injury history, among other things) and adjust his expected value accordingly. I remain wholly unconvinced that Guerrero would be a smart buy at $7 million, but then again, I don't really expect him to pull that much down -- maybe, maybe, one year, $5 million with a second-year team option.
And, hey, perhaps that would work out splendidly for Texas, since adding Guerrero would free up ostensible everyday-designated-hitter-of-the-moment David Murphy and allow him to help out more liberally at the corner outfield spots ... but therein lies another dilemma. I'm going to wager that Guerrero would demand some sort of assurance of everyday playing time before coming to terms on any sort of deal, meaning that he would likely consume at least 550-600 plate appearances at designated hitter.
If you spell Josh Hamilton and/or Nelson Cruz with Murphy, who ends up being jettisoned to the bench: Guerrero, or one of the higher-upside Hamilton/Cruz? And see, there's a real-life example of one of the big problems with bringing Guerrero aboard -- he's somebody that's probably going to log near-everyday playing time, as well as somebody that you're going to feel totally compelled to protect via the DH spot, because he, much like Milton Bradley, is a fairly significant injury risk, and you don't want to take unnecessary risks with a key offensive piece whose salary comprises nearly one-tenth of your entire major league payroll.
One key difference? Defensively speaking, Bradley is adequate. Guerrero, on the other hand, is an abomination. No defense-embracing front office could possibly feel good about allowing Guerrero to play in the outfield unless the game had already deterioriated into a 10-run blowout, or unless he was cutting down riotous outfield spectators with a fungo bat ala Billy Martin and friends during 1974's infamous "10-Cent Beer Night."
Of course, let's not solely focus on the downside -- if Guerrero resumes hitting at a .370-plus wOBA clip, he'd be a fine acquisition, and if he were to approach the .400 wOBA threshold that he hovered right at or above for an entire decade, that would be a rather tremendous coup. Some people would submit that betting on Guerrero to return to that high-caliber form is a relatively safe bet, and I applaud those people for their indefatigable optimism. I don't completely buy into that mindset, but I do know that I'd like nothing better than to see all of this come together nicely and neatly and pay big dividends for Texas, and perhaps that's exactly what will happen very soon.
Soon, as in "right after we stop receiving four different accounts of one rumor in a single day." Exactly when that will take place is a whole 'nother topic for a whole 'nother day.
[3:15 p.m Update: Take this with a grain of salt, but a source close to former Nationals general manager Jim Bowden (of XM's "MLB Home Plate" radio station) indicates that the Rangers are currently finalizing a one-year contract with Guerrero, pending physical.]
Reader Comments (27)
"unless he was cutting down riotous outfield spectators with a fungo bat ala Billy Martin and friends during 1974's infamous "10-Cent Beer Night."
Nice.
I for one dont want Vlad, Dye or Thome with the Rangers....... period.
we can do better with trades,
we have excess tallent that we are going to lose in a rule 5 draft....
we need to plan ahead, now..
or we will be crying later.....
With what I have seen available out there, I think I would prefer Xavier Nady for that spot. His name has been brought up, almost in passing. I wonder if there is anything real linking him and the Rangers?
If healthy, I'd still like to roll the dice with Nady and/or Sheets. One of those guys should be available for $5-$7 mil right? I realize this is just one more injury risk, but if you have enough of those guys someone has to pan out.
I agree with Billy D. If we get Gardner that will give us tremendous excess pitching and we could probably afford to trade Hunter to the Capitol for Willingham. I know some love Hunter and I am a fan too, but I think we can replace his production and we can really use an OB machine like JW.
Also, check out Nady's numbers in the big-boy league. Not impressive at all, and he's coming back from TJ surgery. Not somebody we should settle for when trying to win a division title.
Otherwise I'm now on board with the team's decision not to go for a platoon partner and instead an everyday hitter: here's hoping Vlad's got at least one more great year in him, and he still had a 400 OBP in Arlington last year. The guy loves our spacious outfield and uses it well.
Each of you who don't think Vlad still has it and isn't a good fit here, is clueless. Yes, that includes you, Joey. The guy has one down year--by his standards and certainly better than many of the Rangers last year--and you say he's not a wise investment at $7m.
Can't argue with the uneducated...
The only education that matters is his medical records. If he's healthy, good investment, if not, bad. Nobody's arguing that he wasn't great in his prime, but his numbers have fallen dramatically and guys at 35 with a history of injuries need to be pursued with caution.
At the risk of being insulted, do you think the Rangers might bring me back? It's not looking like ANY sort of market is developing for me.
Hank, you would have been a much better hitter if you had kept hitting the ball to all fields and racking up doubles..... you would have given MY a run for his money...
A 300 hitter with plus doubles is far more valuable than a 30 hr guy that strikes out swinging for the fences............ think it over and call Kinsler..
I like to throw my sombrero into the mix. I have only been out of game for short time. If I get back on juice I hit ball long way. Just not everyday. I hurt sometimes. I need to steal more money. Maybe Rangers give me one more chance.
Thanks
Juan-Gone
Hank – If you have become so desperate that you are willing to accept a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, then I think that the Rangers would do well to sign you as a hedge against Davis and Smoak not being able to produce in 2010 and David Murphy or Josh Hamilton getting hurt.
You averaged nearly 5 WAR in 2003 and 2004 when you averaged a hitting line of .288/.352/.511. You were a 0 WAR play in 2009 when you hit .234/.277/.459. Interestingly, a comparison of the components of your peak seasons and your dismal 2009 suggest that you weren’t all that different a hitter between the two periods.
20.5% strikeout rate in ‘03/’04; 23.4% strikeout rate in ’09.
8.9% walk rate in ‘03/’04; 5.3% walk rate in ’09.
45.3% flyball rate in ‘03/’04; 44.1% flyball rate in ’09.
8.1% infield flyball rate in ‘03/’04; 8.2% infield flyball rate in ’09.
32.8% groundball rate in ‘03/’04; 37.4% groundball rate in ’09.
23.6% line-drive rate in ‘03/’04; 18.4% line-drive rate in ’09.
The biggest variant between ‘03/’04 and ’09 was BABIP - .318 BABIP in ‘03/’04 and .252 BABIP in ’09. For reference, your BABIP from ’03 to ’09 was .320, .316, .296, .296, .319, .301, and .252. The steep drop in your '09 BABIP cannot be attributed to significant changes in your batted ball stats relative to your career rates, so I am inclined to believe that bad luck was a contributing factor to your dismal year.
Interestingly, had your BABIP in 2009 been closer to your career average, then your slash line would have been a far more respectable .278/.318/.545. The slugging-driven .863 OPS in 2009 would have been identical to the slightly more OBP-driven .863 OPS you averaged in 2003 and 2004.
One other thing – It will help a great deal if you can be used strictly against right-handed pitchers. In 2009, you walked 25 times in 361 plate appearances against right-handers and just once in 134 plate appearances against left-handers. With a .300 BABIP against right-handers, you would have hit .301/.349/.593 in 2009. A .942 OPS as the left-handed component of a DH platoon would be A-OK in my book.
David,
Am I never going to be able to play even a little third base again?
-Hammerin' Hank
Hank - Please focus on your hitting.
No deal on Vlad. Rangers have made good moves so far, let's hope they keep it that way.There's a lot of better uses for 7 mil. Have we forgotten about signing Josh H to a long-term contract? I don't want to see him in pinstripes like Tex in a few short years.
"Each of you who don't think Vlad still has it and isn't a good fit here, is clueless. Yes, that includes you, Joey. The guy has one down year--by his standards and certainly better than many of the Rangers last year--and you say he's not a wise investment at $7m."
If you're a believer of the idea that the Rangers do, in fact, only have $5-7M left to spend this winter (and I'm not actually sure that I am, but that's neither here nor there), then yes, spending $7M on somebody who is probably going to give you a one-win boost is not a smart buy. It's inefficient. And, of course, you're also buying the upside (the potential that he returns to '08 form or better), but you're also buying the downside (defensive inflexibility, age, injury history), as well as ruling out any more signings beyond some possible NRIs.
Guerrero has had a fantastic career. He was an excellent hitter as recently as 2008. I get that, and I get why people think he's going to rebound back to that level. At the same time, however, I don't know that anybody should be assuming that he's actually going to do so, because there are myriad risk factors here.
For a paltry $5 million? Hell yes sign Vlad! They need the following in an offensive upgrade:
* ability to hit well from the right hand side of the plate
* ability to protect Josh Hamilton in the middle of the order
* ability to play some OF to spell Hamilton about half the time
Vlad covers those three needs better than just about anyone else on the FA market, and if they can do that for only $5m ??? You guys do remember that we signed Gagne for $5 mil, right?
Everyone thought that Abreu was washed up last year, and look what he did for LA. Same goes for Matsui in NY. Don't be so quick to write this guy off as finished - he could very well put up MVP type numbers hitting in Arlington over a full season.
I for one am hoping he comes to his senses and realizes he isn't going to get a better chance at regaining his mojo than taking a 1 year deal with Texas.
If you can get Vlad (the Ranger nemesis for so many years) then get 'em. Get Sheets and any other pitcher you want too as, please don't forget this, we have a NEW owner in the works who will spend a little $$$ in the free agent market.
I am personally glad that the Rangers current owner spent more on signing bonuses for draft choices and less on free agents over the past several years
Good point, Cliff.
The Rangers do not have 500 ABs for Vlad this year. Smoak and/or Max Ram will be ready to join the team this summer. $5-7 million is too much for a rental player.
And the dueling stories continue:
Anthony Andro is now saying the rumors are bunk, while TR Sullivan says the deal "does appear to be in the serious stage".
Unfortunately, I'm more inclined to believe Andro given TR's track record of reporting wrong things.
well, since I'm "cluless" and "uneducated" I'll just set back in my old 76 year old body and let you young whipper-snappers go at it.......
I'm sure glad I was "lucky" enough to put away a few dollars so I could enjoy my retirement these last 14 years........
cheers, y'all
"indefatigable optimism" - really? Is this what things have come to... we're now making up words to fill space? You're a much better writer when you leave the ridiculous vocab in the pencil box. You're obviously a talented and knowledgeable kid... you don't need to wow us with fancy words... just let it all hang out.
Vlad will be a smashing success in a Ranger uniform, to the tune of .315 / 31 HR / 103 RBI... and Hammy will subsequently mash a .305 / 34 / 121 line himself... and the Rangers will be crowned AL West champs for the 1st time in 10 years (er, 11 years).
Hyperbole... or indefatigable optimism?
Vlad and Harden could very likely be what determines our season this year if the rumors are true. That is both hopeful and scary at once. If both of those hit then we have a great year. If one hits then we probably stay in the race all year. If both miss we could very well have a very down year.
I applaud the ideas of this off season. I think its a set of very good ideas considering our budget. But I will say anyone expecting vintage Vlad to show up is probably fooling themselves. I'd bet more on a down year then on an up year, the median I'd bet is probably 830-850 ops.
"If you can get Vlad (the Ranger nemesis for so many years) then get 'em. Get Sheets and any other pitcher you want too as, please don't forget this, we have a NEW owner in the works who will spend a little $$$ in the free agent market."
The problem with this mindset is that there's not going to be an infusion of cash until after the sale gets done, which is still several months off at the very earliest. I think the idea of Greenberg/Ryan convincing Hicks to increase payroll before then is a novel idea, and I hope it happens, but I suspect that there are logistical barriers in play -- unless, unless, this "the Rangers have $5-7M to spend" line is just completely incorrect.
""indefatigable optimism" - really? Is this what things have come to... we're now making up words to fill space? You're a much better writer when you leave the ridiculous vocab in the pencil box. You're obviously a talented and knowledgeable kid... you don't need to wow us with fancy words... just let it all hang out."
Not interested in wowing anybody. It fits the context of the sentence and is fairly commonplace. I dropped the whole 'overwrought writing' bit some time back. Do appreciate the feedback, however.
I'll play DH and I mash in the ballpark. I mean, after all, testing positive and being suspended is cool now. Manny did and he he's the coolest ever! I've even started growing out the dreds and I already have the baggy pants.
BTW --- does anyone know how to get in touch with Rudy? He still has some of my,,,,um,,,,things.
Joey,
That was a very douche bag thing to say... my apologies. I re-read what I had written last night and it came across in a very different way than I intended.
I know you're a big boy that can handle criticism... but I do appreciate this website very, very much and I often find myself knee deep in your articles... so take what I said with a grain of salt. I must have already taken my sleep meds, which often leads to trouble and/or regrettable statements.
Hey Raffy, I um...think...some of my stuff is still mixed in with your...uh you know...stuff. Call me.
Juan-Gone