Finding Wins In The Bargain Bin
David
Ryan Garko mashes a two-run single against the Twins on April 26th, 2009.Using the offensive and defensive projections that are currently available, the Rangers look like an 88-win team in 2010. On paper, that places the team slightly ahead of the other three contenders in the AL West. Adding a couple of wins would provide a boost to the team's chances of making the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
With 20 pitchers vying for 12 spots in the rotation and bullpen, 10 position players who will be on the active roster if they are healthy (the starting eight, plus Vladimir Guerrero and David Murphy), and competition for the backup catcher (Taylor Teagarden vs. Toby Hall) and utility infielder (Khalil Greene vs. Joaquin Arias) positions, there appears to be only one spot left on the 25-man roster that can impact the team's 2010 record.
The team likely has no more than a few million dollars left in the budget to add a player salary (see table and description at the bottom of this article), and the recent flurry of free agent signings has left only Eric Bedard and Johnny Damon as players whom CHONE projects to be worth at least two wins above replacement (WAR) in 2010.
So how do you squeeze two wins out of the 25th spot on an active roster with only a few million dollars to spend and very little from which to choose? Interestingly, signing Ryan Garko would likely do the trick. So how, you might ask, could Garko be worth two wins wins as the 25th man on a roster if he is projected to be a 1.0 WAR full-time player? Take a look below, and remember, math is your friend.
RYAN GARKO -- BECAUSE 1.0 + 1.2 DOES OCCASIONALLY EQUAL 3.8
Prior to the signing of Vladimir Guerrero, 29-year-old Ryan Garko appeared to be a candidate for the Rangers; right-handed DH spot. CHONE predicts that Garko will hit .275/.350/.445 while playing in 130 games in 2010. With average defense at first base, Garko is expected to be worth one win for the team that signs him. While the going rate for free agents has been approximately $3.5 million per win this off-season, it seems likely that Garko will receive a salary in the $1-2 million range, since there are no teams that are in the market for a full-time first baseman or DH.
With Chris Davis penciled in at first base and Guerrero manning the DH spot, how can Garko be expected to impact the Rangers win-loss record? Combining the CHONE, Bill James, and Marcel projections, Chris Davis is expected to have a hitting line of approximately .276/.332/.510 in 2010. With average defense and above-average power, CHONE projects that Davis will be worth 1.2 WAR as the Rangers' primary first baseman in 2010.
In his first 736 plate appearances in the major leagues, Davis has been much better against right-handed pitchers (.272/.319/.515) than against left-handed pitchers (.226/.271/.428). If Davis' left/right splits persist and his 2010 projections prove to be accurate, then he would be expected to put up a stellar line of .290/.350/.562 vs. right-handers and a far less impressive line of .248/.296/.406 against left-handers this season.
And that brings us back to Garko. In 1714 career major league plate appearances, the right-handed first baseman has hit .313/.392/.495 against left-handed pitchers and just .266/.335/.420 against right-handers. Using his historical splits to break down his projection for 2010 (.275/.350/.445 in 430 at bats) produces a .308/.391/.479 projected line against left-handers and a .259/.330/.428 line against right-handers.
If the Rangers sign Garko and Ron Washington can be convinced to platoon the right-hander with Chris Davis, then the Rangers' first basemen would be expected to hit something along the lines of .296/.364/.536. Assuming that their defense is at least average, then the Davis/Garko platoon would figure to sit comfortably between the 4.4 WAR performance of Kendry Morales (.306/.355/.569 in 2009) and the 3.2 WAR performance of Justin Mourneau (.274/.363/.515 in 2009).
The resulting 3.8 WAR of Davis/Garko would increase the Rangers' production at first base by 2.6 wins (versus the 1.2 WAR that Davis is expected to produce as the full-time player) and significantly increase the team's chances to exceed 90 wins in 2010. When you consider that Oakland made a $10 million investment in Ben Sheets for the 2.0 WAR that he is expected to produce in 2010, dropping $2 million on Garko looks like a steal.
A RUNDOWN OF THE RANGERS' SALARY COMMITMENTS
Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan have both indicated this offseason that the team has allocated roughly $68 million in the 2010 budget to player salaries. As noted in the table below, the team's current salary commitments total between $62-63 million depending on the ultimate salaries of Scott Feldman and a slew of pre-arbitration players. Performance incentives could add an additional $3.9 million to the 2010 budget. Depending on how the team's accounting department counts potential bonuses, it appears that the Rangers have between $1-6 million left in their 2010 budget for player salaries.
[* -- salary estimates for players who have not yet signed 2010 contracts.]
Reader Comments (25)
nice breakdown david. There's a lot of us that are wishful that Garko would be the 25th man, but my guess is Gentry gets the nod. Who knows, maybe the Rangers can steal 2 wins over the course of the season with Gentry as a late inning base-runner, but Garko is such a logical choice one wonders why it hasn't already happened.
In a chat testerday at ESPNDallas, Jon Daniels write the following in response to a question about Chris Davis - "First off, CD has worked hard this off season to try to make this a moot question. But if we're faced with that, we've got a few options. It's a position we've got considerable depth at in the system - Smoak, Moreland, Tracy. Plus Matt Brown can play over there, and has a strong history vs LHP. Murphy may see some time there as well this spring. And there are still some interesting guys on the FA market if the right fit presents itself."
The last sentence suggests that the Rangers are still talking to at least one free agent first baseman and as you suggest, Garko would seem to be the most obvious guy for the team to be considering.
Garko = Win
I don't think Chris Davis should be put into a straight platoon situation from the get-go. He's a young player with a higher ceiling than just being a platoon guy. I think a better option might be Lowell, if we find that he is healthy, later on in the spring. He's a guy who could give MY a break now and then and you know that he would be good for a few clutch hits.
JPaul - There is a very good chance that Davis will develop into a good hitter against major league left-handers. As a minor leaguer, Davis hit 311/371/564 against lefties and 300/352/603 against right-handers. But for a team that is set to contend, I think that you have to favor wins over player development. Going by the numbers, there seems to be little doubt that Garko will be a much better hitter than Davis against lefties in 2010. If the Rangers are fortunate enough to sign him, the 2-3 wins that Garko figures to provide could be the difference between making the playoffs and sitting at home.
As usual, David, you've clearly encapsulated the biggest outstanding "problem" with this roster -- that being the fact that there's minimal room for low-cost improvement with this current roster configuration -- and presented a thoughtful, coherent and well-reasoned solution to said problem. Excellent. David's the real shining star around here these days, folks.
Garko's an interesting fit for all of the reasons you mentioned, but there are two points which do still seem especially germane to this discussion: (a) Garko's not a good defender, so you're somewhat impairing your team defense every time you run him out there against a southpaw (and, all the while, hoping that Davis picks up the slack against RHP), and (b) could Ron Washington be trusted to properly handle this hypothetical Garko/Davis platoon?
To that second question, some would say 'no' without hesitation, and perhaps that answer is not at all fair to Washington, but I do think we have enough of a book on Washington's tendencies -- and, for that matter, his managerial vagaries -- to conclude that it is, at the very least, a fair question to ask.
Has anyone seen the winter baseball games from Dominican Republic? I saw a few of those and just the ones with Cruz and Arias and man. Arias has recovered confidence in his arm, maybe not the same strong arm but he seemed to be hanging out with a some good plays at SS. Also he had a good Avg. I think in one game he went 5 from 6 I'm not sure. Hopefully I could finally step up and stay healthy to claim some playing time with rangers and I always like his presence whenever he was in Arlington.
Thank you, David!
I agree with Joey about the importance (or validity) of those questions. If it's safe to assume that, for the most part, JoshH will spell Borbon in CF vs lefties, don't we want the (dare I say it?) lefty-mashing 25th man to be one who is able to play OF? I thought that Garko's OF/1B flexibility was the main reason we'd want Garko over Matt Brown (who, like Lowell, could play 1B and 3B, JP). But if Garko's defense in the OF is that bad (Vladbad?) , then my vote is swinging back toward Reed Johnson. Or... If we trade Murph plus pitching for CRoss or JWillingham who defend well, then both our 24th AND our 25th men could play vs lefties (the offensively and defensively good OF'er plus Garko or Brown at 1st).
Of the 2 trade proposals, I'd go for Willingham, since he's no platoon guy-- he could play vs all LHPs plus provide the rest for others/insurance that Murphy currently provides.
David, how many extra wins do we get on paper if Borbon (via Hamilton & a LF sub) AND Davis are BOTH platooned (eg with Willingham-or-Ross AND Garko-or-Brown)?
If we just get one guy, and make no trades (which would surprise me), I suggest it be a swing man who can play OF (well) or 1B, depending on who needs platooning more, Borbon or Davis.
Colby Lewis?
Joey,
The Rangers signed Holland to a 1yr deal on the 14th. $414,430, plus $10K if he makes the All Star team.
Garko= tree smoker!
"...could Ron Washington be trusted to properly handle this hypothetical Garko/Davis platoon?"
GREAT question.
I've been a Wash supporter... but mainly because of his ability to command respect while massaging each player's ego just enough as to not create a diva... in fact, I'd say we have zero divas on the current roster; and Wash deserves a great deal of credit for creating the "no I in TEAM" atmosphere.
His in game management, "creative" line ups, and use of the bullpen, were uh, let's say interesting...
I'm reluctant to criticize him (or really any MLB manager) because they have forgotten more than I'll ever know... however, Wash really needs to construct a line up, rotation, and set bullpen ASAP so that players, particularly the younger ones, know and understand their role.
I remember several quotes from Eddiie (last season) emphasizing the importance of each player understanding what's expected of them... and he made these comments well into the season.
While allowing some room to be flexible, these roles need to be defined coming out of spring training.
I think Wash needs to sit down with Davis and explain to him that he's either going to be part of a 2 man platoon, or he's going to be the full time 1st baseman. The constant juggling of roles/responsibilities/expectations creates unwanted anxiety... and it becomes detrimental to their (the younger players) development. Case in point; Elvis. JD made it clear to everyone that Elvis was the SS... and I believe this played a critical role in his 09 success.
We need production from our corner infield spots... and while he's consistently good, MY doesn't provide much pop/power... and coupled with the lack of production from 1B, this has become the achilles heel of this team. (I cant believe that PITCHING is actually a strength of this team... sounds weird to say it)
If the 1B situation continues to be sketchy, I think this will be priority #1 at the trade deadline.
Fascinating, fabulous writing. You've got me convinced. Go get him and let's win us a division.
Michael - I reviewed the potential impact of 5 free agents on the Rangers' 2010 record and Reed Johnson was the second most interesting player in the group behind Garko. As a minor leaguer, Julio Borbon has hit 332/375/430 vs right-handers and 268/333/342 vs left-handers. Of his 179 major league plate appearances in 2009, only 19 came against right-handers so you can't know if his progress in AAA was sufficient to diminish his splits. CHONE projects Borbon to hit 297/349/400 and be worth 2.6 WAR in 2010. I think that CHONE's estimates are a little optimistic due to the major league data set that they have for Borbon when he faced predominately right-handed pitchers. If he plays against both right-handers and left-handers, I expect Borbon to be worth ~2 WAR in 2010. If you combine the right-handed hitting Johnson with the left-handed hitting Borbon, then the hitting line for teh projected platoon works out to 315/370/437 and a WAR of 3.3. Assuming Borbon is a 2 WAR player, then adding Johnson would improve the Rangers win/loss record by 1-2 games. That's not bad when you conisder that Johnson projects to be worth just 0.1 WAR as a full-time player in 2010.
Dean - Nice catch! The Rangers' pitching depth is so great that I can't even keep up with it. The addition of Colby Lewis' $1.75M salary push's the team's salary obligations to a little more than $64M.
I like Donnie Darko - bring him in! He will help save the world!
Sorry to post twice in a row, but this story just broke, and I'm wondering if this guy might be of interest to Texas?
"Leslie Anderson Defects From Cuba
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [January 28, 2010 at 4:53pm CST]
Leslie Anderson, a first baseman/outfielder for Cuba's national team has defected and is looking to negotiate with big league teams according to Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald (as translated by Nick Collias). Jaime Torres, the agent for the 26-year-old, says there is "much interest" in his client.
Anderson can play all three outfield positions and his agent compared him to another versatile Cuban, Alexei Ramirez. Anderson hit .381 with 13 homers in Cuba last season and escaped to Mexico in September."
I am not sure, in this instance, that i would trust a CHONE or Bill James projection in the AL West.
It appears to me that the Angels will be much less capable team this year and the Mariners and A's have improved, though not as much as the Rangers. However, while the Mariners and A's don't have the horses to be more than a long shot they have enough to drag the Rangers and Angels down a bit. That will mean that the Angel's veterens have to play more, will be a little more fatigued and possibly more like to go down with a nagging injury.
This is where I think the Ranger's depth in pitching comes into play. Feldman and Lewis and Hunter will look better against a tired Angels lineup. It maybe only one hit a game or one walk, a double play that would have been a hit. But, I think the CHONE is a bit low on Ranger wins this year maybe by 3 or 4 wins. They look like a 92 to 94 win team to me in their division
"... escaped to Mexico..." - hmmm, not sure Mexico is someplace anyone would intentionally escape to...
Cliff - listen, I'm Captain Optimist. When people bash guys with rose colored glasses, it's me they are hating on... but I have to disagree with you on this - "...the Mariners and A's have improved, though not as much as the Rangers."
I agree, the A's have not improved as much as the Rangers. However, the Mariners have dramatically improved their roster... and on paper, I'd have to say they've improved more than the Rangers.
How one measures improvement is debateable... but I took your statement to mean the Rangers made the better off season moves, correct?
The Rangers have added Ray, Harden, Vlad, Greene, Lewis... and a few others that may not make the team.
The M's have added Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Casey Kotchman, and I think a bullpen guy or 2...
Lee is better Harden... I think we can agree there, right?
Figgins is better player than Vlad... yes?
Bradley can mash but he's a headcase so I'll say that one's a push.
Kotchman vs. Greene... I'd take Kotchman.
Lewis may or may not be a good pick up... we won't know the answer to that until the AS Break...
I'm sure I'm missing a few guys...
I do think the Rangers are BETTER than the Mariners... but I don't think the Rangers have necessarily IMPROVED their roster as much as the M's... but last years M's team left a lot to be desired... so I guess IMPROVEMENT is in the eye of the beholder.
Thanks, David!
The WAR figures above include offense & defense, right?
The good (cf or lf) defense of Johnson vs the (bad?) rf defense of Garko is what sways me toward Johnson if we just make one move. But if we make 2, Garko makes sense as the 2nd-- as the 1b or DH or RF vs LHP depending on who resurrects vs LHP and who (of Davis, Vlad, & Cruz) needs platooning.
On the other hand-- if 2 moves, then the one to get the good lefty-mashing defender should involve trading Murphy (who has no current role but insurance or rest for the other 4) to make room. And yet if he could still provide that much-needed OPS vs lefties without losing that insurance/rest for others ( espec'ly Hamilton) that Murphy provides vs. righties... all the better.
That's why Willingham comes to mind.
Michael - The WAR projections account for both defensive ability and defensive position. Garko's defense projection is equal to that of Chris Davis. Johnson's defense in CF is projected to be below average and his LF defense is approximately average. His overall WAR does benefit from the fact that he is expected to play primarily CF.
Thanks, David. Y'all upkeep is amazing!
Can you humor me by plugging in Josh Willingham in LF vs LHPs while Josh Hamilton is in CF, plus give Willingham 150 of JH's at- bats vs RHP in LF while Borbon is in CF?
He's been linked to the Rangers in trade rumors before, so it's not a total stretch...
In any case, thanks again.
Cheers.
I think my point is still valid Pablo. I think the Rangers will do better than the CHONE numbers this year would indicate. But not a lot better. If Chone says 88 wins I am saying 91. Last year I said the Rangers could win between 75 and 95 games. They had lots of youth and lots of unknowns last year. This year, they are a better team. This year I think the number should be from 85 to 92 games.
I guess I agree with you, the Mariners have done a lot this off season but they had farther to go. They've also got some age issues that could start impacting the win column. Also the Rangers will have the posibility of adding a player at the deadline this year. They really didn't last year.
Baseball Prospectus says 85 wins, third place in the AL West:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
And that Oakland (!) will win the divison. Wonder what they're smoking?
I wouldn't be surprised if 5 games separated all 4 teams. And in such a race each of the 4 has the chance to be the top rail. That's why these 1- or 2-game differences that David is digging up are nothing to sneeze at. Especially in the OF we are still incredibly vulnerable against LHPs, of which the AL West has plenty. Anyone have the % of left-handed pitching we're about to face in our own division?
I put up the '09 OPS splits of the '10 Rangers about 10 days ago. I f I remember correctly it was circa .825 vs RHPs, but about .700 vs LHPs. We still have a real foreseeable need, which we do have the means to address... in part via trade, & as David has shown, in part via the 'bargain bin".