The Colby Lewis Signing
Joey MatschulatIt's beginning to appear as though reports of the Rangers' off-season's early demise were somewhat premature, as multiple media sources -- including FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi -- are reporting that Texas has reached a tentative agreement with free agent right-hander Colby Lewis on a two-year, $5 million contract, with potentially attainable incentives totalling $1 million over the life of the deal.
You can call this what it is -- which is basically placeholder text -- until I have something more in-depth on this signing a little later in the morning, but understand that this is a nifty little deal at its foundation, securing the services of a talented and extremely productive Japanese League talent whose upside might very well be comparable to that of Jon Garland, if not greater.
Management's inclination towards injury-tarnished, albeit potentially high-reward assets (e.g. Rich Harden and Vladimir Guerrero) and the potentially undervalued Lewis isn't a mere fluke; the Rangers are clearly targeting maximum-bang-for-your-buck players, but are also seeking to maximize the quality of those players (or, in other words, spending a little more money to secure guys with proven track records over, say, younger, higher-variance players), and in the process they're making this roster both deeper and better. Yeah, there's obviously risk in play, but without that risk you're not even involved in the bidding; in that sense, some risk is clearly desirable.
Reader Comments (21)
Joey,
So this means the end of the 14 month Ben Sheets saga right? I was hoping that Sheets would not get signed by another team until after the sale of the team was very near approval and the Rangers would be able to bring him in (albeit at less than $10-$12M). But I just can't see that happening now. There is simply no room on the roster for another starting pitcher. I guess if the Rangers move someone i could see him signing still, but the Lewis signing seems to be the last nail in that coffin.
Andrew, I dont think Sheets would ever lower his price for us..... last year he would have accepted a deal to get the MONEY (which is what it is ALL about) and then opted for the DL to get it fixed.. he just lost a year of income, but NOW he is going to recoup the lost income.
We never really had a chance.
What they are doing now is understandable, good reinforcements, in case our young'uns need a bit more polish.... we dont need a collapse..
From Newberg:
"Once the Lewis and Khalil Greene signings are made official, two players will come off the 40-man roster. Candidates would seem to include Joaquin Arias, Luis Mendoza, and Joe Inglett, none of whom have options, and maybe Greg Golson and Brandon Boggs."
So my picks are Arias & Golson. It will be interesting to see what happens at spring training, though, both with the pitching and the bench. I expect we will see more players given a real chance to win a spot than we've had in the past few years.
Joey,
2 questions:
1. does this continued accumulation of pitching depth (a) guarantee Feliz starts year in pen (to keep innings down) with the strong possibility of a mid-season rotation switch and (b) make it more likely that CJ stays in pen?
2. where do YOU think Holland's chances of making the rotation out of the Spring now lie? I have been assuming that he had to pitch well enough in the Spring not to "lose" a spot. I think this now means that he has to earn or win a spot. Agree?
I'm with Jim on my picks for who should come off the 40-man roster.
As for Sheets, this signing has got to put an end to our chances of signing him; however, I must say that I think there's no way he actually gets 10-12 million per year. I think his best case scenario has to be the contract we gave to Harden. Even if he impresses in his throwing sessions, it's been a while since he's had back to back seasons with 25+ starts (not that Harden outpaces that by much). I think even with many teams interested in Sheets, his price will have to fall. Think of it like Tanner Scheppers. Did all 30 teams have interest in the kid? Yes. If there weren't any health concerns might he have been a top 5 pick? Probably. Did every team pass on him at least once because he DID have concerns about his shoulder? Yes. Sheets is in the same boat. I don't believe that a team will guarantee him 12 million for one year of pitching when they can't be sure he'll give them 15 starts much less 30.
Anyway, I like the Colby Lewis signing. I actually liked him a little the first time he was here, and he may have learned a thing or two out in Japan. His stuff won't play up as much as it did in Japan, so I would expect his K% to drop. However, his control and extremely low BB% is quite encouraging. I've never really broken down any stats from the Japanese baseball leagues, but since they have a reputation for being extremely disciplined, I would expect that his control and command is a very real thing.
Lewis' earlier struggles in MLB, combined with his success in Japan, should make him a better pitcher now. Whether he starts or pitches long relief, he should be a nice addition to the pitching staff. Pitching and defense: never thought I'd truly see Rangers management stick to that worthy commitment, but they are and I am happy about it.
Give your head a shake. Colby Lewis is a long relief guy that gives you starter insurance. You ever heard of a guy named Brian Tallet? Same role up here.
I think this is a good gamble. The price is a bit higher than I had hoped for, but that should tell us that several teams were interested and bidding, as rumors indicated. This guy put up video game numbers in Japan for two years, seems like he's found a way to succeed. Even factoring in the tougher competition in the MLB, he seems like a good bet to be a decent 4th or 5th starter who can pitch a bunch of innings cheaply.
If they're paying him this much, I'm betting he begins the season in the major league rotation unless he has a truly awful spring or gets injured. The Rangers can move one of their out of options guys in trade and still have lots of flexibility in placing their young wild cards.
If I'm Jon Daniels, I'm working the phones to see if I can get anything of even marginal value for the guys coming off the 40 man roster, so I'm also stalling any "official" announcement as long as possible.
Stacking up competitive arms is a good thing. History shows we will need all of them.
I still believe that Daniels and the club are interested in Ben Sheets and are not going to the tryout just to watch. The Rangers signed him for about that amount last year and since the purse strings have been loosened some what by MLB, I think the Rangers are still in the hunt for Sheets, which would really top off this off-season and the rotation (not to mention how strong the bullpen would then become).
I also have some thoughts on what the Mariners have done the off-season and the unique problems that come with it at http://tsheat.mlblogs.com/. Check it out.
Pitching depth is new to Rangers fans... so excuse me if I'm a bit baffled by this signing.
I remember last off season the Red Sox signing Penny AND Smoltz when their rotation seemed to already be filled out. Those signings didn't work out well for the Sox... but the point of emphasis was adding depth, and that's a smart move.
Here's the thing though; don't the Rangers already have several guys that could fill out the back end of the rotation; Harrison, BMac, Nippert, and Moscoso... and that's without mentioning potential starters CJ and Feliz... and guys that will have their chance like Hurley and Mendoza. Now you throw in Lewis, who at $5M is GOING to make the team... and you have as many as 8 guys battling for 1, maybe 2 rotation spots... with the consolation prize being a trip to the bullpen (long relief).
I'm happy to add competition and let the best man win... but I can't help but wonder if JD has something up his sleave. Or, he's not at all comfortable going into 2010 with youngsters Holland, Hunter, and Feldman...
I would be dissapointed to see Boggs play elsewhere. I don't care if they dump Arias, Inglett, or Gholson... but Boggs at least adds some value, right?
They are still in the works for a catcher, by all reports, so maybe some of this pitching depth will work itself out in a trade. For instance, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to trade for a veteran by dangling someone like, say, Brandon McCarthy. Of course, if Salty is really and totally healthy, I guess you don't need to get a starter at that position. Another idea would be to package a few pieces together to try to upgrade at starter, something like McCarthy + Moscoso + Arias + Golson for a pitcher that would be an upgrade over McCarthy.
I wonder too about Feliz. He was so dominant last season in relief that you hate to lose him there. But if he can do that as a starter, you gotta start him. I've heard a lot of people say that both he and Holland could very well start the season at AAA in the rotation. I think for that to happen, some of these other guys would have to blow them away in ST (or Holland/Feliz would have to really struggle). Right now the list looks like this:
Harden
Feldman
Hunter
Holland
McCarthy
Harrison
Lewis
Feliz
Wilson
Hurley
Mendoza
Moscoso
Scheppers?
That's a crowded field, and it would seem that only the first 2 are locks (although it would take a really really bad spring for Holland, Hunter, or McCarthy to lose their spots).
So something's going to have to give.
Still, as others have said, it's nice having that kind of depth.
One other thought. I know the CJ to starter idea is popular with people, but considering both the depth of starting pitching the team has amassed as well as the success CJ had last season as a power lefty setup arm, maybe he should just be left where he is. A back bullpen of Francisco, Feliz, CJ, Oliver and O'Day is pretty solid. Add a nasty Scheppers to the mix in the summertime and... wow.
Ok I'll stop now. Sorry for the length.
I would drop Inglett and Golson, I think Arias still has something and am higher on Boggs than most, I think he is the 25th man on the ML roster at this point. Plus his sister is hot.
I know this is wishful thinking, but is there any chance Colby Lewis got a slit deal and doesn't have to be on the 40? I don't want to lose that second guy from the 40, even if its Golson.
Just a thought.
A dominating starter has the potential to influence the outcome of, at most, 34 games a year.
A dominating closer has the opportunity to influence 60 - 65 games a year.
I would rather have Feliz become the reincarnation Mariano Rivera fifteen years ago and have a rotation that is solid enough so that Feliz has 60 65 save opportunities a year. Teams that can shorten the game by one inning are winning teams. Having Feliz come in and strike out three consecutive batters every other night is a scary thought for other teams. Far scarier than seeing him once every 5 days I would think
A starting rotation of:
Harden
Feldman
Wilson
Hunter
Lewis
is formidable assuming you get 200 innings and a 4.25 to 4.50 ERA 180+ innings from each of Feldman Hunter and Lewis. I think Feldman could have an ERA of below 4.00. I have no idea what to expect from Wilson as a starter
And a bullpen
Feliz
Francisco
Oliver
O'Day
Grili
BMac
Hurly/Harrison/Holland/Mendosa/et al
Look at who is left out of that
Yes the Rangers need to think of trading a little pitching. Otherwise they are going to lose some of these guys. They need to either get reserves they need this year or swap them for younger prospects that will not have to go onto the 40 man roster
This is an "I THINK", comment...
I am hoping Washington dosent mess up our pitching selection with his desires......
I hope Nolan overrides Wash with his own selection...
Wash just scares me with how he goes about things....
I have said all along that he is a players friend and an EXCELLENT coach, but not really qualified as a manager..
.
Cliff,
Grilli's already gone (as a free agent signed by...-- I forget whom).
If you take Jim's list of 13, and add Nippert you get 14 guys who would likely start at some point on SOME Major League team this year. Then you've got about 4 more extra guys In our pen who would qualify for other teams' bullpens, at least as a LOOGY.
First of all... Alleluia!
Second... Let's think fast! Surely a trade is in the air... But not necessarily of our 41st & 42nd best.
If we look at some our "most valuable players of '09 whose value is about to plummet-- not necessarily due to any fault of their own, but even due to projected role," whom do you see?
Those are the guys I propose we consider pairing In 2-for-1 deals with a Mendoza, a Rapada, a Golson, an Inglett or an Arias (especially Mendoza, who is young enough to have promise, who's had a brilliant Winter in Mexico, but who is out of options).
Amen, billydpowell. I always felt like his hiring was a 180 reaction to Showalter. It seemed to get a guy whose most prominent managerial quality was as a motivator seemed off the mark with self-motivated gym rat types like Young, Kinsler, Blalock, Teixeira et al.
The basic point is still the same even if I missed Grili being gone.
Having someone who can come in 60 - 65 a year and shut a batting order down is as valuable as an Ace starter. Having two setup guys that can do that most of the time means that a team can effectively shorten the opponents game to 7 innings. It is a lot easier to win if you only have to get 18 outs Make Feliz a closer. Set Francisco and Oliver in as setup men.
I agree, Cliff. Didn't mean to pick nits. I know the monetary value and the number of innings affected by a starter is greater than a closer's, but, as you say, the number of games affected by a closer is potentially double. The other reason I think I'm a fan of having Feliiz be our closer is that mentioned (i.e. theorized, but perhaps not yet researched?) relative ease with which hitters see Franciscos' (and others') fastballs after having faced Feliz. Methinks he needs to come last.
Then-- VOILA!-- just as we are about to lower Murphy's value by putting him behind Vlad and our 3 starting OF's (and not even platoon him w/ Borbon, because he's just as bad vs LHPs), moving Francisco out of the Closer role would lower his value. But trading both PLUS Arias PLUS Mendoza would bring quite a haul-- say a top notch C and a lefty-mashing platoon partner for Borbon.
Just sayin' is all.
I too, agree that Feliz should undoubtedly be the closer. He does have Mariano Rivera talent. Francisco has slipped in his value anyway with his inability to keep guys off base which makes every game a nail biter. I would also look for the slightest opportunity to bring Perez up and turn that bad boy loose. I do believe the Rangers are a playoff contender but I am not convinced yet that they are a world series contender. Maybe the new ownership will let Daniels go get that one more starter that will propel Texas into the elite. We are getting close................ I expect to see Smoak aka (smoke) on the squad in time to be on the playoff roster.
I like the idea of Feliz as closer, too, especially if the team can put up 4 starters who can consistently win.
Regarding Washington, I have said this before but I think it bears repeating. I wasn't a huge fan of him the first season, and I admit he does make some maddening decisions at times. But to be fair, he also has done a lot to get this team back to being competitive, and if we criticize him when his gambles go awry, we should also commend him when they pay off - and they more often than not do. It wasn't mere political correctness that had him #3 or #4 in the Manager of the Year race last year out of all AL managers. He did a great job with very raw talent and a few really key, substantial injuries last season.