Regarding Guerrero And Greene
Joey MatschulatA quick thought: If Tom Hicks' troubling stewardship of the Texas Rangers has truly pushed this fan base to the edge of its collective patience, then (1) this article, which hints at the possibility of a collapse in negotiations with the Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan ownership group, combined with (2) Hicks proudly asserting during the owners' meetings on Wednesday that "you're not getting rid of us," probably isn't going to do wonders for public sentiment:
● The latest round of pre-season projections has dropped (this time, courtesy of the inimitable Tom Tango, creator of the Marcels player forecasting system), and, not surprisingly, Vladimir Guerrero is once again being projected as a .355 wOBA hitter -- nothing to sneeze at, of course, but nothing all that special from your designated hitter towards whom you'll be throwing no less than $5.5 million in 2010. Furthermore, any gains in value created by manager Ron Washington's (ill-conceived) plan to work Guerrero into the outfield picture are going to be offset by his poor defense ... but that's not the topic I wanted to quickly touch on.
You might have recently noticed a lot of references to the notion of "lineup protection" in the context of the Guerrero signing, with the general idea apparently being that his mere presence and nothing more will render his teammates better offensively. The fact that both players and coaches buy into this notion strongly implies that Guerrero is good for some sort of psychological boost, at the very least; conversely, multiple statistical studies into the effects of lineup protection have suggested that it is, at best, "overrated," and at worst virtually neglibible as far as actually putting runs on the board.
Maybe there's really something to it, and maybe it's all hyperbole, but even if lineup protection really does exist, let's not confuse Guerrero making the team better on his own merits with Guerrero making the team better by directly impacting the production of others.
● Lost amid the Guerrero-related excitement of this past weekend was the acquisition of free agent infielder Khalil Greene on a reported one-year, $750,000 contract, which should be nearing finalization now that he has passed his pre-signing physical. It's a decent little signing, one which might entail more risk if not for the fact that the 30-year-old Greene might do well just to smash his way beyond the 100-plate appearance marker.
Greene's career path is somewhat reminiscent of that of Hank Blalock, in the sense that he began his major league career on a strong offensive note and gradually went backwards, adding power but sacrificing batting average while generally faring below average defensively at shortstop. There might still be something left in the tank, but it's not something I would bet too heavily on; nevertheless, he makes more sense as a utilty infielder for a playoff-contending team than, say, Joe Inglett, since Elvis Andrus could probably use at least 10-15 games of rest and Greene is presumably a better defensive option than Inglett at shortstop.
Reader Comments (14)
It sure seemed like everybody on the team did a whole lot better collectively, when Bradley provided that so called protection. I don't believe it's actually the other teams being scared or anything (even though Vlad can be scary!), but success can be catchy, and if one player can force the other teams pitcher to think twice/work a little harder, then that goes a long ways towards making our whole line-up less of a push over from top to bottom.
Fans need to start picketing down at RBiA. "Get the sale done" and "Goodbye Hicks" are a couple of the nicer slogans I can think of.
I agree, Snowcourt. Something there is that messes up a pitcher ... that haunts the mound! Seeing no rest-stop ahead... The fear of an inning snowballing, such that a single or a walk can be as psychologically (and physically) fatiguing as a homer-- maybe moreso because it leaves no fresh start... It leaves guys moving all around you... behind you... threatening to score... Once the bases are loaded,... with one more pitch,... anything-- a ball in play,... ball 4..., a past ball... ANYTHING can happen!
So it's not so much "a presence" as "continuity", especially speed & continuity, which strikes fear in most pitchers in my book.
Conversely, developing the actual offensive hope of that continuity-- a string of 7-9 guys, each with an .800 - .850 OPS-- seems to me a better goal than the same total OPS reached with a batting order alternating between lefties & righties whose OPS starts at .800 and keeps alternating between .600 and .1000 per batter... especially if that OPS is weighted less to slugging and more to OPS, because 1-run homers give as much credit as grand slams to a player's SLG%, but on a team with a high OBP, a single usuallydoes more damage than a 1-run homer.
Joey, which do you think is more overrated, the "protection" afforded by "a presence", or the alternation of lefty & righty batters, regardless of their OPS-track-records against lefty or righty pitchers?
ps Any chance Greene can back up 1B or RF against LHPs if necessary, and if it's Borbon who needs it, (a la platooning), might the FO/Wash be willing to play JH in CF vs LHPs, or do you think we'll see Boggs brought up or someone acquired?
Success breeds hightened awareness breeds confidence breeds further success. Success is also contagious. No amount of research or breaking down numbers can explain it. Anyone who plays sports at any level just knows. It just is. It also puts the opposition on a little nervous edge and intensifies his ability to make a mistake. And mistakes are sometimes contagious also by the opposing pitcher(s). This is what Vlad has provided to his team mates in the past and what we all hope he can provide this year. Call it protection or whatever you like. It just is.
Pardon my ignorance, but what does "wOBA" mean?
wOBA (weighted on base average) attempts to weight outcomes of a PA (HR, triple, double, single, BB (usually only non intentional) according to a run value system. Think of it like OPS. http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
Aha! Thanks (for asking Rich and answering Andrew)!
Then would wOBA be a more important stat for determining batting order, by avoiding the statistical pitfall of OPS, which I mentioned above (misleadingly valuing a solo homer as if it were greater than a single with a man on third, or greater than a walk with the bases loaded)?
I think lineup protection is a real thing because as long as it's human pitchers and catchers choosing pitch selection their mentality towards pitch selection is going to be affected by who they see in the and who they think they can get away with pitching around. If Vlad makes the pitchers think they can't get around Hamilton, then I'd say that's a clear sign of protection in the lineup.
Thanks for the info Andrew.
Mike E,
you nailed it.
Look at this way, is Bad Vlad gonna be any worse than the Jones/Blalock combo from last year? I think even an above average Vlad is a huge upgrade from those two. So all things considered we can't be any worse than last year and the potential is we'll be much better.
I'm sure Vlad will have a positive impact on the entire lineup with his presence, but I'm anxious to see what kind of influence he'll have on Nelson Cruz. I see a big brother kind of bond forming between these two. Both are natives of the Dominican Republic, they both have tremendous right-handed power and at one point were similar outfielders. I'm hoping Vlad will provide the kind of guidance Cruz needs to be a consistent contributor for the team.
Who is this playoff contender Greene is signing with? With the Angels and M's in your division you need start prepping for next year! I will say that if all these injury risk guys have career years you might have a shot.
Rich - no ignorance... I didn't know what it was either.
A while back I bitched to Joey about all of the stats... and he explained that some prefer Sabermetrics, while others do not... but ultimately there would be a 50/50 mix. Good enough for me... I just log in every other day. J/K