Rangers Prospect Prognostications: Most Likely To Rebound
David
Max Ramirez rounds the bases after clubbing a two-run homer for Team Venezuela during the World Baseball Classic on March 18th, 2009.Joey Votto hit .231/.341/.287 as a 19-year-old in Low-A. He hit .301/.413/.499 the following season and has posted a .310/.388/.536 batting line in his first two major league seasons. Adrian Gonzalez hit .269/.327/.365 as a 21-year-old in 2003 before rebounding with Triple-A seasons of .304/.364/.457 in 2004 and .338/.399/.561 in 2005.
In his first season in Double-A, Ubaldo Jimenez had a 5.43 ERA while striking out 7.6 batters and walking 4.4 batters per nine innings. He returned to AA-ball the following season and posted a 2.45 ERA while striking out 10.6 hitters per nine innings. Jimenez now ranks among major league baseball's best young pitchers.
Several prospects in the Rangers' minor league system had disappointing seasons in 2009. Unfortunately, some will likely follow the paths of Juan Dominguez, Ruben Mateo, Ramon Nivar, Kelly Dransfeldt, and Mario Ramos. Others will rebound in 2010, and a few may eventually develop into productive big league players. Below are five that I expect to recover at least some of the luster on their prospect status in 2010.
No. 1: RHP Michael Main | DoB: 12/14/88 | 6′ 1″, 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (24th overall)
Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; tight curveball; potentially above-average change-up
● Main is the easy choice. His problems in 2009 appear to have been health-related and not due to a baseball injury or lost ability. Main's peripherals in 2009 (7.6 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9) were nothing like his career rates (10.3 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9) prior to 2009.
● It is worth noting that after an awful start to the season (four starts, 14.2 IP, 11.66 ERA, 23 H, 12 BB, 13 K, and a .365 BAA), Main was making progress (seven starts, 35.1 IP, 4.33 ERA, 22 BB, 27 K, and a .269 BAA) before giving up eight runs in four innings during his final start of the season. And when he returned in September, his two relief appearances at High-A Bakersfield were excellent (4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K, and .154 BAA).
● If he proves to be healthy in spring training, there seems to be little doubt that he has the pitching repertoire necessary to be effective in the Texas League. Assuming he is assigned to Frisco, then a strikeout rate north of 8.0 K/9 and a walk rate south of 3.5 BB/9 would allow him to regain his status as one of the more intriguing prospects in the Rangers' system.
No. 2: C/DH Max Ramirez | DoB: 10/11/84 | 5′ 11″, 175 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for OF Kenny Lofton (07/27/07)
Stuff: High on-base percentage with power; below-average defensive catcher
● Until 2009, Max Ramirez was among the most consistently impressive hitters in the minors (.951 OPS in ‘05, .871 in ‘06, .924 in ‘07, and 1.067 in '08). Injuries to both wrists in 2009 sapped his power and affected his ability to hit for average.
● During games that I saw in May, Ramirez had trouble checking his swing on balls down and away, which led to a lot of swings and misses on pitches that were outside the strike zone. Through the first two months of the season, Ramirez' strikeout rate was up (33 percent) and his walk-out rate was dismal (6 percent). Although his batting average never got above .250, Ramirez' batting eye did return, as his walk rate was above 16 percent and his strikeout rate was 20 percent from June through August. Those numbers were roughly in line with his career averages (14 percent walk rate and 21 percent strikeout rate).
● If Ramirez is healthy in 2010, it seems very likely that he will once again hit for average and power. As of December 17th, Ramirez was averaging nearly two bases per hit in the Venezuelan Winter League with eight doubles and 13 homeruns among his 48 hits. Unfortunately, he is still struggling with strikeouts, with 62 whiffs in 200 at-bats.
No. 3: RHP Eric Hurley | DoB: 09/17/85 | 6′ 4″, 195 lb.
Acquired via: 2004 MLB Draft, 1st Round (30th overall)
Stuff: 90-95 mph fastball, above-average slider, below-average change-up
● Hurley was off to a promising start in the major leagues in 2008 (22.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) before a shoulder injury and off-season surgery put him on the shelf. Hurley's slider rated as a plus pitch during his brief time in the major leagues in 2008, and his fastball was 90-95 mph in 2006 and 2007.
● Fly ball tendencies, a high home run rate, and a relatively ineffective change-up made it difficult to imagine Hurley as much more than a back-of-the-rotation starter. Injuries are never a good thing, but perhaps Hurley's shoulder injury and ensuing surgery will hasten his transition to a role that he seems ideally suited for -- late-inning reliever.
● According to FanGraphs, 19 of the 30 most valuable relievers in 2009 relied primarily upon a low- to mid-90s fastball and a slider. Hurley's fastball and slider are clearly his best two pitches. In addition to allowing him to ditch the change-up that was his problem pitch in Triple-A, pitching out of the bullpen might allow Hurley to pitch consistently in the mid-90s. As a starter, Hurley tends to begin games with a 90-92 mph fastball that he ramps up to 93-95 mph by the fourth and fifth innings. Interestingly, Hurley's career minor league strikeout rate goes from 7.6 K/9 through his first three innings to 8.8 K/9 in his fourth and fifth innings. A move to the bullpen would allow Hurley to focus more on immediate results and less on his stamina.
No. 4: LHP Beau Jones | DoB: 08/25/86 | 6′ 1″, 195 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP Ron Mahay (07/31/07)
Stuff: Low- to mid-90s fastball; potentially above-average curveball and change-up
● Following a breakout 2008 season (3.22 ERA, 7.8 H/9, 9.2 K/9, and 4.4 BB/9 in 58.2 innings), Jones appeared to be on the relatively short list of left-handers who might get a chance to pitch out of the Rangers' bullpen in 2009. A bad start in Frisco (5.88 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 6.4 BB/9, and .294 BAA in 33.2 IP) resulted in his demotion from Double-A to High-A, and he absolutely dominated the California League (0.55 ERA, 4.4 H/9, 14.3 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9 in 16.2 IP). With his mojo back, Jones returned to the Texas League and pitched exceedingly well (2.18 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and .230 BAA in 20.2 innings).
● Although Jones featured a low- to mid-90s fastball in his first few seasons, the pitch apparently dropped to 88-91 mph in 2009. Jones recently switched from a curveball to a slider as his breaking ball and he is developing more confidence in his change-up. These changes might partially explain Jones' early-season problems.
● Jones is not a LOOGY, as evidenced by the .271 BAA vs. left-handers and .228 BAA vs. right-handers in his career and .282 BAA vs. left-handers and .221 BAA vs. right-handers in 2009. If he makes it in the big leagues, it will be because he is able to produce outs regardless of the hitter.
● If Jones is able to maintain the better control that he exhibited after June 2009 and build on the progress that he made with his secondary pitches, then he could develop into a decent major league reliever. Improved fastball velocity could help him leap-frog Zach Phillips and others who appear to be ahead of him in the group of pitchers who are in line to get their opportunities pitching out of the Rangers' bullpen.
No. 5: LHP Tim Murphy | DoB: 05/07/87 | 6′ 2″, 190 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 3rd Round (89th overall)
Stuff: Lively low-90s fastball; above-average curveball; average change-up
● After overpowering hitters in the Northwest and Midwest Leagues (9.6 K/9, .173 BAA) in 2008, Murphy seemed destined for the fast-track to Arlington. With the exceptions of a five-start stretch in June when he posted a 2.18 ERA, and his final two starts of the season when he posted a 2.25 ERA, Murphy was among the more generous pitchers in baseball.
● The puzzling thing about Murphy's 2009 season is that his walk (3.7 BB/9), line drive (9.2 percent), and ground ball (49.4 percent) rates ranged from good to excellent. Likewise, his home run rate was a very respectable 0.7 HR/9 for the California League.
● Murphy's disappointing season resulted from a strikeout rate that was well below the league average of 8.1 K/9 and a BAA on fly balls that bordered on obscene (.396). Had Murphy's BAA on fly balls matched that of the other Bakersfield starting pitchers (.318), then his ERA in 2009 would have likely been in the neighborhood of 5.00 and he would be considered a near-lock to be a member of the RoughRiders starting rotation to begin 2010.
● "His competitive nature makes him a perfect fit for a late-inning relief role, though he also may have enough stuff to serve as a starter. Murphy has a 90-92 mph fastball, but his best pitch is a sharp, over-the-top curveball. If he can improve his changeup and his control (he gave up nearly as many walks as hits), he could move into the rotation. His arm action is long in back, which affects his release point and his ability to locate his pitches." (Nathan Rode, Baseball America)
● Assuming Murphy makes the switch to the bullpen, it seems likely that he could have a Zach Phillips-esque rebound. Given his age and three-pitch repertoire, it appears likely that Murphy will get an opportunity to prove himself against Texas League hitters at some point in 2010.
Reader Comments (16)
This is picky but.... Max Ramirez listed at 5'11 175???? Seriously, that dude is 175 is one pant leg. I think it is very likely that combined with his bad wrists, he was seriously out of shape this past year. He needs to do a few more pushaways to get those wrists around his miggy cabrera-esqe belly!
Go Michael Main!
David, those numbers from Votto and Gonzalez are a tiny beacon of hope for Engel Beltre. The Hurley to the bullpen idea is sound if he can return to health and get strikeout stuff going again. The Rangers have a lot of strong bullpen candidates over the next several seasons. Luckily, they won't have to be spending lots of money for relievers anytime soon.
This year it really seems like they have the depth in the pen to make a trade in spring training, at least a minor deal.
russ - You are right about Max's weight. Unfortunately, those are the official numbers.
t ball - I really like how Oakland has handled their bullpen the last few years. Like the A's, the Rangers now have adequate pitching depth to convert their marginal minor league starters with strong K-rates and iffy control, flyball tendencies, or limited pitch repertoires to the bullpen. Hurley (if he's healthy), Moscoso, Kiker, Gomez, Gutierrez, and Font could supply the Rangers with a nice series of effective and inexpensive relievers in the next few years.
A few questions:
- Can someone offer a reasonable explanation as to why guys like Votto, Gonzalez, etc... hit their weight in the minors and then show dramatic improvement in the bigs, where you'd think they'd be abject failures? Is it coaching, better conditioning, rising to the occasion, or simply becoming not only a mature person, but also a mature hitter?
- Who would you project as the 2nd coming of Juan Dominguez, Ruben Mateo, and Ramon Nivar? I believe someone offered up Beltre as a comp for Mateo... but what other high profile prospects look doomed to fail (or not meet the high expectation)?
- Isn't AA Frisco kind of a tall order for Main... especially with a disastrous 09? I would think AA would be the GOAL for him in 2010...
- Is MaxRam a perfect example of the type of hitter the Rangers want to rein in a little? In other words, are we seeing the Rangers go away from the "all or nothing" approach we've had since the early 90's? ** I'm not suggesting MaxRam is "all or nothing", C. Davis would fall under that category... but his K rate is still very high and I'm curious if the Rangers will stress better plate discipline at the expense of some power... lets call it "Tamed Aggression"?
- Would the Rangers be better served to showcase Hurley as a starter (once he's 100% healthy) , with the intent of moving him (and McCarthy) at some point during the season... or easing him into a relief role, as you suggest? Is his value to this team, (again, when 100% healthy) as a back end starter, or as a reliever? ** I guess you answered this already... but I'm curious what the book is on Hurley, when healthy. Workhorse? Electric stuff? etc...
- Where would Murphy rank on most farm systems (not the elite, like the Rangers, A's, etc...)? Would he be a top 10 guy?
Great questions, Pabloesque.
Gonzalez was exceptionally young for AAA when he had a sub-700 OPS. Another year of physical and mental maturity did wonders for him. Hopefully, the same will be true for Beltre. A lack of development time can produce lackluster numbers for teenagers who are very good prospects, so I tend to focus more on scouting reports than on production for young players. Injuries are the primary reason that solid baseball players have bad seasons in the upper minors. If an upper level prospect has a poor year for reasons other than injury, then you can be reasonably sure that they are not going to be an above average major leaguer, except when starting pitchers convert to relief.
Among the rangers' Top 20 prospects, I am most worried about Beltre and Font. They both have significant development hurdles that could easily derail their careers.
The scouting reports on Main indicate that he has the maturity and stuff to compete in AA. His stuff was off in 2009 (mid-80's fastball, flat curveball), so you have to ignore his Bakersfield numbers. Given that the Rangers have tried to minimize the tim ethat their top pitching prospects spend in Bakersfield, I have to imagine that the team woudl prefer to have Main in Frisco.
Quick aside - Having their High A team in Bakersfield is really creating problems for the Rangers. Perez, for instance, would likely benefit from pitching in High A before graduating to AA, but because Bakersfield is such a hole, the team is compelled to have him compete against mch more mature hitters in the Texas League.
If he can return to form, MaxRam is just what the Rangers need. He is a very patient hitter 12+% walk rate and he hits the ball hard when pitchers throw strikes. He lost the strike zone early in 2009 but seemed to regain it in the second half of the season. If he is back at full strength in 2010, I think that he could be a real asset to teh big league club.
I think that the Rangers are beyond the point of auditioning or showcasing players. Beginning this year, they are in contender mode and they need to use the resources at hand to win games. For my money, Hurley (and McCarthy) are better bets to produce wins out of the bullpen than they are to produce wins from the rotation. Therefore, the team should use them in those roles regardless of what it does to their trade value.
Regarding Hurley stuff - Prior to 2008, Hurley exhibited good control of two average to above-average pitches - a low- to mid-90's fastball and a hard slider. He was also very competitive on the mound. If those traits return, I think that he could be a very good late-inning reliever, though he is far more likely to be a solid contributor than a key player on a good team.
Tim Murphy's 2009 season was a bonafide disaster. I doubt that anyone would rank him as even a C-level prospect at this point which would keep him off the list of top prospects for any team.
David, do you see any value in letting some of the pitchers you listed as starters going to to bullpen, getting a bigger chance at proving they can still start, (even if we think they will help US in the bullpen), to increase their trade value to other teams that might need starters? It seems like it #1 pick's Hurley and Kiker, and high upside's like Font ect., still could intrigue teams that they are buying "low" (not too low), and they would be worth more starting for someone else than relieving for us.
I see your point, I like win now mode much better than experiment with players mode.
Main is the easy pick but I think he will go back to Bakersfield, the Frisco rotation looks crowded, especially if Scheppers starts there.
I think Max makes a strong rebound, he is born to hit (if healthy, the entire problem last year).
I think Hurley will be brought along slowly and make an impact late in the season (along with Scheppers, Strop and likely one of the Kirkman/Phillips/Jones lefties.
Beau Jones is interesting, I saw him in 2008 and he had great velocity for a LH. One of those guys that pops the mitt on his FB and creates an echo in the stadium. His offspeed stuff needed work but if not for the velocity drop in AA I really think he would have be ahead of Kirkman and Phillips for a spot on the 40. If he is healthy again, he could certainly be a surprise this year, he looked like a young version of the best Ron Mahay looked as a Ranger when I saw him in 2008.
I don't see Tim Murphy in the bullpen, I see him as a guy like Poveda that puts up some decent stats as a starter and works his way into trade chip status (or throw in status). He knows how to pitch and has a bad stat line mostly because he pitched in the California league. He is much better prospect than his stats show and I think that will become apparent this year.
Also I know its popular to dump on Bakersfield, but I really see that as overrated. Some parts of the fan sections are a dump (I actually had a plastic seat break while I was sitting in it last year) but the field is fine and comparable to the other stadiums in the league. Its scorching hot at times, but isn't Arlington and Frisco? It does have short fences but you honestly don't see that many cheap HRs, a lot of the balls you see hit out would go out in any other stadium as well. The short fence in left effects the game like the Green Monster does but overall I really think the complaints about Bakersfield are overdone.
Scott Lucas spent a paragraph pointing out that Bakersfield doesn't have a tarp to cover the field as if it was a Junior High team but that area gets like 10 inches of rain a year and a tarp would decay from mold or bugs because it was never used. I live an hour away in Hollywood and I own one umbrella that I bought like 10 or 12 years ago from a street vendor in Bangkok. I've probably used it a dozen times since I got it.
Also, how about Brandon Boggs for this list?
If Bakersfield is such a hole is there any chance the Rangers could move their affiliation to another location? Maybe one in East Texas or Arkansaw, New Mexico maybe?
Cliff: There has been talk for some time about moving the High A team to the Carolina League after the 2010 season. I don't think anything can be made official or announced until after the season, though, we may have idea before then.
Myrtle Beach likely to be the high A home next year.
Kaisersoze - Thanks for scouting reports! Brandon Boggs is a solid rebound candidate. A shoulder injury likely contributed to the disappointing power that he showed in AAA in 2009 (.398 SLG), though he it is worth noting that he is unlikely to ever hit for enough power to justify playing everyday as a corner outfielder. In 2009, Boggs did maintain his outstanding plate discipline, drawing 59 walks (vs 98 strikeouts) in 398 plate appearances. A little more power and a batting average above .270 in the majors or .300 in AAA would be a very nice season for teh 27 year old Boggs.
As for Bakersfield, you are right about it being fairly average for the Cal League (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_minor_league_park_multipliers/). Unfortunately, the dry air and winds at many of the ballparks in the Cal League appear to make it challenging for pitchers. In addition, Rangers prospects have to pitch in places like High Desert and Lancaster which might be the two toughest parks in all of minor league baseball.
David - Since you mention Lancaster, one last story. I saw Derek Holland pitch a game in Lancaster when he was in the Cal League, I went bonkers over him when I saw him in a previous game and drove to the Lancaster game to see him again. He had dominant stuff but ended up with a bad stat line on some dinks and dunks that found holes.
I've posted this on Jamey's site but one of my favorite moments in those Class A games was the second hitter of the game. Holland struck out the first four in that game and had dominant stuff. The second batter was a young Dominican SS who struck out on three pitches, and probably only saw one of the three. I'll never forget that kid walking back to the dugout (I was about four rows up, about ten feet from him). He wasn't upset, he wasn't frustrated - he was CRUSHED. Like "What if I don't make in baseball" crushed. Like "What am I going to do for a job back in DR" kind of crushed.
Your heart went out to him, but he seriously was emotionally traumatized. He didn't have a look you see in sports, but a look you see in the waiting room of a Hospital ER.