Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions
Joey Matschulat
1. Finish this sentence however you see fit: "In 2010, Vladimir Guerrero will _______."
2. Kevin Goldstein, speaking to Jason Parks: "Elvis Andrus didn't have a good year last year. He barely put up a .700 OPS last year. If you still think he's going to be good, that's one thing. If you think he was good last year, especially at the plate, he wasn't." Agree or disagree?
3. Does Mark McGwire's admission that he used performance-enhancing drugs during his record-breaking 1998 season tarnish your perception of his accomplishments and/or Hall of Fame credentials?
4. Should we at all care that Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz are tentatively slated to bat sixth and seventh, respectively, in manager Ron Washington's everyday lineup, and that Cruz is not batting any higher than he is?
5. How much in the way of hope is left for Blake Beavan, whom Goldstein views as a potential "long-reliever who can throw strikes" and apparently not much else?
[I do actually have some additional musings to share on the Guerrero/Green signings and the McGwire deal, but I'm choosing to withhold those until later in the day. Or something. And if you hate open threads, particularly during the middle of the week, (1) I'm sorry, and (2) you'll get over it.]
Reader Comments (47)
1. The Rangers DH.
2. If Elvis continues to hit as he did last year, he will be a fine shortstop and ballplayers. His defense makes the difference.
3. Never thought McGwire was a hall of famer anyway. The bloated HR total simply diminishes any thoughts I had for him, and I never had many thoughts at all.
4. Sixth for Nelson and seventh for Davis is about right. If they're as good as we hope they are, that will be a very potent bottom of the order.
5. Unless he regains his velocity, I don't ever see Blake in a big-league uniform, either starting or in relief. An 88-89 fastball thrown without movement and for strikes is merely batting practice.
1. be the AL MVP.
2. Disagree.
3. Don't care.
4. It's January.
5. He's still young.
I disagree with number 5. Beavan is working to improve his slider and his changeup. If he can master that he will have no problems, and will be in a Major League uniform soon. Keep in mind most of these guys are still so young...Beavan will be 21 in less than a week. These young guys have time, and they have their coaches best interest. So until the coaches have a problem with his pitching the rest of us shouldn't worry about him.
1) Vlad will give us some needed muscle in the middle of the lineup.
2) Agree, but he will continue to improve and be an All-Star SS of the future.
3) Yes, McGuire should not be in MLB...St. Louis is sending wrong signals by bringing him back. He cheated and should be stripped of his homers just as Bonds, sosa, and others should be.
4) Yes
5) Not MLB material.
1. Vlad will contribute beyond his own numbers, particularly in the quality of pitches seen by Hamilton, as a positive influence on the young Latin players, and for the roster overall along with Oliver as a result of being part of the Angels winning culture.
2. As a 20 year old rookie who never played above AA, whose hit tools were never what the buzz was about, he exceeded expectations, and will continue to do so. Not sure where the Hanley comp came from, I never saw it, he's more Jeter than Ramirez, which is pretty damn good.
3. Posted this at TR's site, I will leave McGwire's HOF vote to the veterans committee. I personally don't support him, he affected his peers the most, let them decide.
4. Provided he performs, Davis 6th makes the most sense. Cruz will get his opportunities. Part of RW's lineup problem last year was his tendency to stack RH or LH hitters together making it easier for opposing managers to match up or force Wash to use his bench as a response instead of strategically.
5. Still too early to judge. Let's get him to AAA and see how he performs before pigeon-holing him.
1. ...hit .300/.350/.600/30 hrs./110 rbi/ . Sorry, it's the mountain cedar in my hot stove. Go Rangers
2. The only fair comparison would be to the rookie seasons of past great SS. AROD, Jeter, Omar, Ozzie, etc. I really like Kevin, but sometimes he's weird.
3. No. MLB was complisit (sp) with the union, players and the writers. Baseball knew these players were "doing it." It wasn't against MLB rules when it was being done. The players helped bring the game back in the late '90s by making the game exciting and now MLB and the writers are throwing them under the "politically correct bus." Betrayal at its best.
4. Heck, NO! It takes the pressure off the kids at this stage of their careers. Their years will come.
5. Kevin may be on to something here; and then he may not. For sure, 2010 is a watershed year for Blake.
1. help the Rangers.
2. disagree
3. no, I figured he cheated.
4. not really, Washington IS our problem, not them.
5. I think he is off base.
3. Yes, McGwire's record is tarnished -- not because it's my perception, but because it really is. The fact that it is even a question partially provides the answer. But beyond that, what should our attitude be? We shouldn't confuse consequences with forgiveness. We can (and should) be forgiving of McGwire, Rose, Shoeless Joe...good grief, even Mike Tyson! But the consequences of illegal actions shouldn't be discarded. That means no HOF. And there are others coming along who will be in same boat. Sorry, guys. Enforcing consequences can be a good example. It says that character and principles mean something, and that we are liable for our actions. And, alternatively, overlooking consequences gives a bad example. It says that one should cheat and/or do whatever is necessary to be on top.
1. Will provide solid protection for Hamilton, assuming they both stay healthy.
2. I agree he didn't have a good year offensively, but to say he didn't have a good year at all is crazy. He was very good defensively.
3. McGwire is a borderline hall of famer with those numbers. Since his home run total is really the only thing he had going for him, I'd say he doesn't deserve to be in the hall.
4. I agree with it for now, but if Cruz starts blasting off, he needs to be moved up in the order. Cruz turns 30 this year, it's time for Washington to stop treating him like he's a rookie.
5. I think it's too early to jump to any conclusions, but an 88-89 mph fastball worries me.
(1) Team mates protection
(2) Opinion's are like.............
(3) Contrived
(4) Other teams should be concerned that those two are 6th and 7th in the Rangers' line up.
(5) Many young hard "throwers" have had to re-make themselves into pitchers ............ Kenny Rogers..........
1 - ...look like a steal at $6M.
2 - Disagree. But only due to expectations. And because nobody should have expected as much as Elvis gave, I disagree venomously.
3 - No. Anyone surprised or shocked by that confession is living in a bubble.
4. - No. These are a couple hitters that have something to prove, be that good or bad. And, they need defining. Are they power hitters? Are they percentage hitters? Are they both? Are they neither?
5. - I think that's up to Blake. MLB accepts successful players. A pitcher doesn't have to be a flamethrower to be successful. But he does need to be able to miss bats and throw outs. So Beavan has the challenge of learning that art, reverting back to old form for a short run, or being a mediocre vagabond.
1. Finish this sentence however you see fit: "In 2010, Vladimir Guerrero will _______." -- appear on the field in a Texas Rangers uniform.
Nah, seriously, he'll hit .300/.360/.510 in 120 games with a much higher BA and SLG in Arlington than on the road.
2. Kevin Goldstein, speaking to Jason Parks: "Elvis Andrus didn't have a good year last year. He barely put up a .700 OPS last year. If you still think he's going to be good, that's one thing. If you think he was good last year, especially at the plate, he wasn't." Agree or disagree?
Agree and disagree. Us Rangers fans were so happy to finally have a shortstop who could field that we overlooked Elvis' fairly weak bat, especially on the road. I still think it was a decent season for a shortstop overall but I definitely hope for improvement over the next couple of years.
3. Does Mark McGwire's admission that he used performance-enhancing drugs during his record-breaking 1998 season tarnish your perception of his accomplishments and/or Hall of Fame credentials?
No. We all already knew he took steroids. I personally don't care. He's a Hall of Fame player who hit 70 home runs and helped make 1998 one of the most fun baseball seasons ever for a fan.
4. Should we at all care that Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz are tentatively slated to bat sixth and seventh, respectively, in manager Ron Washington's everyday lineup, and that Cruz is not batting any higher than he is?
No, it's the right spots for them. Just means our lineup is getting better.
5. How much in the way of hope is left for Blake Beavan, whom Goldstein views as a potential "long-reliever who can throw strikes" and apparently not much else?
There's always hope I guess. I try to not get too excited or upset about any pitching prospect until they actually perform in the major leagues. Too many years as a Rangers fan have left me shell shocked.
1. “…be solid and productive, if unspectacular.”
2. Disagree slightly. His wording is off by using “especially.” You can argue that he was (slightly) below average offensively, but when you factor in his defense, he was at least a league average shortstop.
3. No.
4. Looks like a good line up. Just don’t complain that Cruz doesn’t drive in enough runs if you bat him sixth and only get him into 128 games again.
5. Some. His size/durability/work ethic are positive attributes, but the low K rate has to change somehow for him to be seen as a future starter. He’s too young to dismiss entirely.
1) Have a GREAT season to the tune of .325/35/120
2) Well, it depends on expectations; everyone in the media and the entire fanbase would be lying if they thought Elvis would hit as well as he did. Based on this expectation, he had a GREAT year. Besides, he was one of only a few "sure things" in that line up... and I'm sure he will see better pitches this year, assuming everyone steps it up.
3) I like "Dot Race's" response - if the MLB could have a mulltigan on the steroid era, I believe they'd replay every season BUT 1998. It was an exciting year that brough fans back to MLB. Do I think he belongs in the HOF, no... I do not! Big difference between a gambler (Rose) and taking performance enhancing drugs. A gambler's game wasn't elavated based on his gambling... but a drug user's game is most certainly elavated.
4) Right now, no... it doesn't matter if Cruz bats 6th and Davis 7th... HOWEVER, if Davis dials it back to pre 09 numbers, Wash has to buck the trend and move him up where he can damage. They both striekout WAY too much though, so 6th and 7th is probably where they belong.
5) Sure there's hope for Beaven. Listen, how many pitchers are currently in a MLB rotation that the so called "experts" said would never amount to much? Probably 1 or 2 on each team, at least? Guys like KG make their money by saying provactive things; good or bad. I take it all with a grain of salt because you cannot measure a player's heart. Does Beaven have alot of heart/drive/determination... I have no idea... but it sure looks like Kasey Kiker does, and I'd be willing to bet he cracks the rotation at some point and has a nice MLB career.
I'd like to go back and find the scouting reports on Kazmir, and Wagner... and Wakefield, Pettite, Vazquez, Lowe, etc...
1- If healthy he will be productive to the tune of .290 25 HR 95 RBI
If not, he will be at the plate hitting with a cane.
2- Defensively he was fabulous, offensively he was average-but above average with baseball smarts and instincts.
3- Group in with the rest of the steroid users. All stats should have an extra large asterisk next to them.
4- Strengthens the bottom of the order with vast power potential but a ton of strikeouts.
5- Beaven could be a good long reliever. Last time I checked it is a good thing to be a consistent strike thrower.
1) rake
2) disagree, what do you expect from a 20 year old?
3) no
4) i think one of Davis' struggles last year was the fact that no one had to pitch to him. No one feared Salty or Andrus at the plate so they could be careful with Davis. Davis was impatient at the plate and wasn't getting anything to hit... leading to his dovetail
5) Too early to really tell. Let the kid get a little more time, he can throw strikes which is a lot more than most of the Rangers pitchers in the 2000s
In 2010, Vladimir Guerrero will be an improvement over Hank "the Tank" Blalock.
Elvis's first year being good depends upon your perspective. For me defensively he was outstanding (with still more room to improve). Offensively he wasn't really good, but considering his age/rookie status and the expectations, he was decent.
I didn't think he was clean then, so his admitting it improves his standing as far as I'm concerned.
Exactly how many opening day lineups stay the same for the whole season?
Beavan is still pretty young, so there's always a chance that he could add something that turns him into a nice inning-eating 4-5th starter.
1. be the anchor of a pretty salty line-up.
2.Elvis hit better than expected didn't he?
3. YES
4.No
5. Major-league long-reliever is a pretty good gig isn't it? Pays real well and beats having a real job.
1) What Vlad does-- in fact, what Josh, CD, Nellie, Borbon, Cruz, even Kinsler does-- depends entirely on how each is used. (All but Josh & Kins had a sub-.800 OPS vs lefties; and those 2 were sub-.800 vs righties...) Whether Wash ignores their 2009 splits, saying each was an aberration, and allows them all to play through it,... or he platoons as many as possible in the name of "giving them a rest,"... or he deals with each on a case-by-case basis... will determine our team's short & long-term success or failure.
I don't have a strong case either way for what he should do. Hamilton's & Cruz's are reverse splits, and Davis hit lefties in the Minors. Vlad hit lefties until last year's injury, and seems to have recovered. Borbon and Kins have always been pretty lop-sided...
If Wash platoons them for short-term success, will it arrest their long-term development, keeping them from ever becoming threats to consistently win series from the most ambidexterous teams? And will it cause us to need a 30-man active roster? (Maybe Vlad "is what he is" or, better yet, "is what he was" regardless of Wash-- not to be so affected by Wash's 1-year use. Besides, he's the least likely to get platooned, so we will either languish or thrive depending on Vlad's recovery from the '09 splits... But the others?) If RW doesn't platoon them, and yet they don't balance out their '09 splits, then we can expect to see a Jeckyl & Hyde offense again.
For now, unless Guerrero's signing triggers a trade of DMurph (eg for Cody Ross and change) before the decrease in Murphy's playing time kills his value,.. or unless Vlad himself can start mashing lefties once again, our using a roster spot on someone with those '09 splits will have only exacerbated our problem vs LHPs-- further exposing our Achilles heel from the protection of our mighty platoon-shield.
1. be a force in the Ranger lineup.
2. No -- great defense is all he needs. If he hits .250 or so, he will contribute substanially.
3. McGuire, Bonds, Sosa, anybody who has taken steroids should be banned from the HOF.
4. No -- shows depth of Ranger offense.
5. Making $400K for pitching a few innings now and again isn't what woulde called tragic.
(1) Vlad will post an .850 OPS, with 20+ home runs and 85+ RBI. He will be a solid, middle-of-the-order hitter.
(2) What the hell is with Goldstein? Sure, compared to DHs and COFers, Elvis Andrus's hitting stats look weak. But that is why we don't compare a SS to a OFer. His OPS was extremely solid compared to his colleagues at SS, making him an above average player there. I don't understand how a player can be above average compared to his peers, yet be considered "not good." Bizarre. I agree he isn't Hanley Ramirez, but he exceeded all expectations and was a decent hitter and tremendous defender last season.
(3) No.
(4) I could care less. The order of the lineup has surprisingly little effect on the total number of runs a team scores. Plus batting Davis 6th allows the team to go L, R, L, R, R, L, R, S, R from 1-9. That prevents a team from using a situational reliever for more than a batter or two during a game. Plus, I'd be willing to bet that Hamilton, Davis, Kinsler, Cruz, and Vlad are all produce similar OPS and wRC+ numbers next season, so their order is generally irrelevant to me. We have a very balanced lineup right now with a lot of good, but not great hitters. Their order is the least of this teams concern.
(5) I agree with Goldstein on this one.
1. ...continue his downward trend. I want to be bullish on him, but I've thought for several years that he's the kind of body and style that will fall off quickly - with that trend starting last year. Now that we can safely assume he won't resort to PED's (outside of HGH) and the the fact that we can't truly know his age, I would expect him to continue in the wrong direction. I hope I'm wrong, but if he stays in the lineup I'm hoping at best for .290/20/95. Maybe the new digs will help that out considerably, but I'm just not sure what to expect yet.
2. This post sums it up for me pretty well: http://www.lonestarball.com/2010/1/10/1244098/kevin-goldstein-on-elvis-andrus. Definitely not a terrible season in my opinion and at 20 pretty damn impressive historically I would think.
3. We all knew he used. Nothing particularly revelatory yesterday other than seeing his anguish which I think was genuine. I don't mind if he's on the outside looking it, but my question is what happens when someone goes in and then we find out after the fact that they used. Let's say for example, Ken Griffey Jr. or Frank Thomas. Both are sure-fire HOF's and haven't been linked in the past. If we find out after they're enshrined that they used do we then allow everyone from the era in? I'm inclined to think so and while we're at it put Rose in. Just put on all their plaques their accomplishments and then a line saying what everyone knows. This guy used during the PED-era or in Rose's case, this guy was banned from the game forever for breaking the cardinal sin of gambling.
4. I'm holding my breath that Cruz can improve on last year and Davis can find his minor league form (and to some degree he seemed to after he was brought back up). If these guys come through to any degree we'll look back on last year as a serious aberration. This could be a devastating lineup if Kinsler rediscovers his peak and Guerrero and Hamilton stay healthy and the other pieces live up to their potential. A lot of what-ifs for next year, but makes this team must-see from day 1 of the season.
5. Way to early to pass judgment. He's still young. I think we have had to lower our expectations, but he could still prove to be a valuable piece of a contender if he continues refining his game and "pitchability". If he continues to not miss bats though with any of his offerings, I'm afraid he'll get eaten alive in the big leagues.
1. Have a solid season, but his numbers will continue to follow his rate of decline he's seen over the last 3 years. But hey, they'll still be better that what we got from DH last season.
2. I don't really get the Hanley Ramirez reference, but ok... let's look at it. Andrus a 3.0 WAR player as a 20 yr old rookie -- almost solely because of his work in the field. Ramirez was a 4.5 WAR player as a 22 yr old rookie -- solely because of his work at the plate. Andrus already is a better defensive shortstop than Ramirez ever has been. Andrus wasn't great at the plate last season, but no one expected him to be. I don't know why Andrus has to be Hanley Ramirez, and I don't know who expects him to be, but I do know that the Rangers have one hell of a player at SS, and should for quite a long time. Going forward, what's more likely to improve -- Andrus at the plate or Ramirez in the field. I like Andrus' chances.
3. Really? What difference does it make that he admitted to it? Would it make a difference if Bonds admitted it? They did it, we know they did it, and they'll go in the HOF anyway. McGwire and the rest shouldn't be complimented or held in higher regard for coming clean after lying all these years, but at least there's one less player we'll hear "speculation" of. The sooner the rest come clean, the sooner we can move on.
4. No
5. The Rangers knew there was a chance he wouldn't be able to match his velo and SO ability with change in mechanics. So what's better, leaving the mechanics alone and hoping Beavan can live through it and develop into a set up guy (his mechanics would have never survived starting), or fixing his mechanics and turning him into a long man prospect? To me, the Rangers gave the kid a better chance at having a longer pro-ball career even if it means not being as spectacular as he could have been -- though there's no reason to think Beavan would have survived his mechanics even in the minors.
1. ...have a great season, I hope
2. Agree and disagree, I believe he had a great year in the field for a 20 year old rookie. He did better than I expected at the plate and in his baserunning abilities. I don't think bad year overall as Kevin insinuates by his statement nor was he an All Star. I believe he improved as the year went along and he grew into major leage hitting and he will continue to improve in the coming years.
3. Doesn't make any difference to me. Yea he hit a bunch of home runs but outside of that he wasn't a gold glove player either. As for the steroid thing... if it wasn't steroids then it was other drugs that players took to get that extra edge in other eras (amphetamines, cocaine, etc.) so when it comes down to it how do you really determine if any player in history really deserves his HOF designation prior to any testing for any drugs or Peds being done. Who really knows what players took in the 30's, 40's, 50's 60's and so on. I don't get to vote so does it really matter what we think when it comes down to it?
4. No, it just goes to show that this lineup is very good throughout. When you have players like Davis & Cruz batting in the bottom half what does that say about the top half? I think it says that the top is really potent.
5. Can't say how much but its too soon to write him off. He is still young, learning and could be a late bloomer. Keep him around a couple more years at least and see how he does.
1. protect Josh Hamilton
2. disagree completely...he was the best hitter in the line up because he played based on what the team needs and what his role was...he didn't free swing the way that veterans on the team did...I hope he maintains that approach even when he gets the big contract
3. Yes
4. Not a concern
5. Haven't seen him throw so not sure what we he is capable of...
1. Played 130 games during the regular season and all POST season games hitting .415 with 5 dingers, 6 doubles and 21 RBI's
2. He will mature into an excellent contact hitter from the nine hole and maybe some leadoff. He wins games defensively for us and contributes offensively
3. Maguire! Who cares!!!
4. Line Up- Bourbon, Young, Hamilton, VG, Kinsler, Davis/Smoak, Cruz/Murphy, Salty/Teagarden and Andrus
This line up will match up to anybody in the Big Leagues especially in the play-offs
5. Beaven played with an attitude in HS. From the stories I read and heard he didn't give a s_ _ _ who he was pitching against, he owned you. Now he's learning his craft. If he reclaims his "Take No Prisoner" attitude and take ownership of the inside part of the plate he'll do great. Shy of that he'll pitch a few games in the Majors but nothing of significance.
1. Be productive and protect Hamilton.
2. I agree. Andrus had a good year, possibly better than good year being a rookie. Goldstein also mentions in his article that some have compared him to Hanley Ramirez. Come on! Maybe defensively but never, never offensively.
3. No!
4. A lot can happen between now and opening day. If Davis and Cruz stay in the 6 and 7 hole all year, we win the AL West.
5. Not a surprise, his mechanics were brutal. That being said, I believe he will be successful in bigs but not dominate like everyone thought he would.
1. Will stop killing the Rangers with big hits and kill them by NOT getting big hits. Honestly, I hope he still has some gas left in the tank, but Vladdy seems to me like he might be done. I hope .320, .395, .595 but expect .290, .367, .475
2. I oringally thought he said Andrus was bad at the plate. But when I reread the quote, I realized he said "wasn't good". That leaves a lot of room to interpret. And I agree with the premise that Elvis wasn't an offensive dynamo like HanRam. But as I said in another thread, he didn't have to be and I didn't expect him to be HanRam at the plate. I still maintain that Elvis' improved range was in large part responsible for the better run prevention in 2009. And while he wasn't above average at the plate, I have no problem with that from a 20 year old. He was FAR above average in the field and I think he will improve both areas of his game.
3. It only confirmed what I knew at least as early as 97 or 98. He juiced just like a lot of other (cough..Juan Gonzalez...cough) power hitters in that era did. Yes, it tarnishes that era, but since we can't know how much roids helped him or how much roid usage helped the pitchers he was facing I can't really know what he would have done without them. So I don't see it as a reason to keep him out of the Hall.
4. I think Cruz has #3 hitter power and potential. but until he delivers with that kind of consistency, he can hit 7th. I hope Cruz is mad enough to be work harder to be great but not mad enough to be sidetracked.
5. I haven't followed him closely enough. I hope KG is wrong, though.
1) be healthy and be pretty good or be injured and help sink the season.
2) Andrus was top flight with the glove and above average for a SS with the bat. To me that makes a very good to great year.
3) No it doesn't. But I do think you have to either let everyone from that era in based on what they did or keep everyone in that era out. The sad truth is that we can't know who did what. If Raffy had never tested positive I would have kept assuming that he was clean. I think you just have to waive the white flag and give it up. I know this will be a double standard but the one exception to that to me would be Bonds.
4) I personally would like to see Cruz up higher in the line up. I'm not convinced that Vlad is going to out hit him this year. I like the idea of keeping L/R split up but I also like the idea of getting our better hitters more ABs. I'm pretty sure Cruz will out perform Davis this year. I really just think Cruz has done something that makes the gut not like him.
1. ...give his hands a good Alou'ing.
2. I don't think Elvis was very good at the plate, no. However, when you factor in age, expectations, and defensive position, I think his offensive output should be considered very promising.
3. Not really.
4. Not really. The consternation over the batting order is a little premature, in my opinion.
5. With plus fastball command anything is possible, although I tend to agree with KG that his projection isn't what it was coming out of high school. Youth is still very much on his side.
1. Be better than expected.
2. He was better than expected. A lot of people I respect projected him to have much lower numbers and my expectations were something ridiculous like .230/.300/.400.
3. Product of the era. When is someone gonna get on Brady Anderson's ass?
4. Nah - but I'd hit Davis above Cruz - but it really doesn't make that much difference. I really expect Davis to rake this year - the best hitter on the club. Hope I'm right.
5. Not every high pick meets expectations. If he makes it to the bigs and has 3-4 years of contribution, he's better than most, isn't he?
1. Finish this sentence however you see fit: "In 2010, Vladimir Guerrero will _______."
Good enough to make give Hamilton more pitches to hit.
2. Kevin Goldstein, speaking to Jason Parks: "Elvis Andrus didn't have a good year last year. He barely put up a .700 OPS last year. If you still think he's going to be good, that's one thing. If you think he was good last year, especially at the plate, he wasn't." Agree or disagree?
Disagree... at the plate I think he exceeded what most people thought that he'd do. He is what he is... a fast guy who can cause havoc on the base paths... if he can do that and continue to improve on defense then he's doing his job.
3. Does Mark McGwire's admission that he used performance-enhancing drugs during his record-breaking 1998 season tarnish your perception of his accomplishments and/or Hall of Fame credentials?
Not really a surprise. I think he should be in the HOF... if you're not going to let him in I don't think you can let anyone in from that era. We simply don't know who was clean or not and virtually every player has to have some level of doubt associated with them.
4. Should we at all care that Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz are tentatively slated to bat sixth and seventh, respectively, in manager Ron Washington's everyday lineup, and that Cruz is not batting any higher than he is?
I think if they're going to bat higher they'll have to earn it. It's great to have two guys who can hit like that in the bottom part of the line up. If it's not them then it'll be Kinsler or Vlad in those spots and that's not bad either. Whoever shows they deserve the 4 or 5 spots they'll end up with them soon enough.
5. How much in the way of hope is left for Blake Beavan, whom Goldstein views as a potential "long-reliever who can throw strikes" and apparently not much else?
I don't know enough about him to say much.
1 Inertia...he is 35 not 40 and as long as he is not swinging the bat with his knees he is going to hit 300 or thereabouts. He has a llfetime of 300 hitting and put in a position to prove himself. Chances are he will have a better than average year and that means good times at the ballpark folks.
2 He was 20 and HIT better than the average shortstop in the league, yes he had a good year and he does not have potential,,,AAA and below players have potential. He is in the bigs and at his age improvement is not my best guess it is going to happen.
3 He can go straight to HE double hockey sticks, For a guy like myself that has followed the game and loves the stat he and all the rest of that era screwed everything up for all of us. I dont care if he coaches but no Hall of Fame for that joker.
4 Perfect spot in the lineup for those boys and that is because it creates a strong balance throughout the lineup where rallies can come from any part of the order. No more 784 this year..closer to 900
5 I am rooting for Blake...to have completely reworked his delivery had to be hard for him so i hope it pays off
4) Assuming we don't trade David Murphy, then the best line-up based on '09 would have Murph platoon with Hamilton. Assuming either we do trade him or Wash puts stock in Josh's rebound against righties, we should at least switch him with Cruz against RHPs. I'd also like to see more attention paid to continuity of speed on the basepaths. Since Vlad is a roadblock, he should be behind our running game. Since Kinsler doesn't hit righties yet, he should be right before Andrus, so we have our speediest at 8,9,1,2,3,4.
I know Wash won't do this, but against RHPs I recommend:
CF Julio Borbon
3B Michael Young
RF Nelson Cruz
DH Vladimir Guerrero
1B Chris Davis
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
LF Josh Hamilton
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Elvis Andrus
And against LHPs I recommend:
SS Elvis Andrus
2B Ian Kinsler
LF Josh Hamilton
DH Vladimir Guerrero/Matt Brown (If VG doesn't rebound vs LHPs. Read JNewberg on Brown!)
3B Michael Young
C Taylor Teagarden
1B Chris Davis
RF Nelson Cruz/Mitch Moreland (unless vs LHPs Josh plays CF, Cruz LF and Moreland RF)
CF Julio Borbon (or the Ross/Maier lefty-mashing CF we get for DMurph)
1. Finish this sentence however you see fit: "In 2010, Vladimir Guerrero will be somewhat better than Andruw Jones."
2. Elvis Andrus will be top flight defensive short stop. He was what 20 years old last year? I think his bat will develope as well
3. I think all players from the late 1980's through late 1990's accomplishments are clouded with the steroids issue. I don't see how they can be refused HoF as a group. Maybe they should have asterixs and maris lose one.
4. That is a good problem to have!
5. Let's see what happens. I have no idea
Michael
Are not both Hamilton and Murphy Left handed? Why would you have lefty-lefty platoon?
1. Contribute to Hamilton having an MVP season. Vlad will hit .310 with 26 hrs and play in about 130 games while missing about 30. Boom.
2. Good is relative. Was he good for one of the youngest rookies in baseball who was on the team for his glove? Yes. Was he good compared to say, Ichiro at the plate? No. The kind of ball player Elvis Andrus is though, hes only, only only going to get better.
3. My perception of McGwire was already tarnished because he didnt have to come out and admit it for me to know he was juicing. He looked like a parade float. No way he should be in the hall. He cheated.
4. What a great problem to have. The bottom of our lineup is stacked with potential if nothing else. We should be crushing some baseballs and scoring runs this season up and down the order.
5. You cant really ever know for sure til he gets here and starts pitching, but if hes an effective middle reliever who can throw strikes, thats not a total loss is it?
1. Hit .307 28 HR 105 RBI
2. Disagree. How would anyone say he didn't have a good year? Nothing else to say about that. That's just dumb.
3.IDC
4.no
5. Still hope. He may be a long reliever but little too early still to say that. Wait until after this year to make a true prediction.
1. Will do the job he was hired to do and protect Hamilton with a .290 avg and 24 HRs.
2. He certainly exceeded offensive expectations and met defensive expectations. What's not to like. Even KG can't bat .1000 I guess.
3. Yawn
4. Looks fine to me. Line up change all season long.
5. I saw Beavan pitch once in HS. I couldn't believe his arm didn't fall off his senior year. Mine hurt just watching him. Lord. The Rangers had no choice but to change him. But come on the kid is 20 years old and has put only 1-year behind him with his new pitching style. He may or may not get the juice back up but throwing strikes is a hell of a good place to start. Now let's see if he can kick it up a notch.
1. Vlad = Ranger
2. Elvis is just allright with me (sing along everyone!)
3. Meh, don't care. It's going to be tough for people to put him in the HOF, whether or not he came clean. Barry Bonds will be in the same boat.
4. Doesn't bother me. I kinda like it.
5. If Beavan can get more movement out of a 90 mph fastball, I still think he has a chance, especially with his control. He's young and it's too early to make a final call. Goldstein is entitled to his opinion, but my guess is he's been wrong before, too.
1. Will be a vast improvement over last year. But he'll be here only one year as Smoak takes over next year.
2. There were times last year when Andrus was the most disciplined batter in the lineup. He should improve, but even if he doesn't, no problem.
3. No HOF for Markie-Mark. We all knew he was juiced, therefore his records are artificial.
4. No problem. It just shows the power of this lineup. Now, if Hurdle can get them to be more disciplined hitters...
5. Beavan will have to find velocity to be a major league contributor.
1. wOBA in the high .360's and play about 140 games. Hopefully.
2. That KG quote seemed to be in response to some phantom comparison of Elvis to Hanley Ramirez, which I personally don't recall being a widely accepted opinion, even among Ranger fans.
Elvis was not an offensive tour-de-force in 2009, true, but he had a superb defensive showing and he at least equaled any offensive expectations you could've reasonably had for a 20 y/o jumping from AA to the majors. We'll see if he hits that sophomore wall in 2010 that some players hit, but for 2009 he was a 3-win player as a 20 y/o in the majors. I don't see how you can't consider that pretty damn good.
3. I don't really care, but no, it doesn't.
4. I think it's a definite problem that our manager has shoeholed the second best hitter on the team in 2009 into the #7 spot before pitchers and catchers have even reported.
5. Not much left here. Beavan is extremely overrated.
"Should we at all care that Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz are tentatively slated to bat sixth and seventh, respectively, in manager Ron Washington's everyday lineup, and that Cruz is not batting any higher than he is?"
Question - can someone show me where Washington has posted his projected lineups for 2010? I missed that, and I'd love to see proof of it with my own eyes.
Cliff,
Although Josh Hamilton's a lefty, he hit like a righty in ;09, i.e with reverse splits:
.897 vs LHPs
.665 vs. RHPs
David Murphy had conventional splits:
.627 vs LHPs
.833 vs RHPs
Together they'd have made a great LF in '09. Hopefully Josh does it all by himself in '10.
Borbon's, Vlad's & Cruz's splits heavily favored RHPs like Murphy's, but those of Cruz & Vlad, righties hitting only righties, were reversed as well , so they and Hamilton stand the best chance to be balanced hitters this year, whereas Borbon & Murphy have an uphill battle, needing to buck both convention and career trends.
That's why I'd recommend that, unless we really do plan to platoon Murphy with Hamilton, we should consider trading Murph for a CF who can hit lefties (eg KC's Mitch Meier or FLA's Cody Ross). We might even pick up a reserve catcher in such a deal.
With 3 outfielders and a DH to back up, Murphy is still very useful to us-- a strong 4th OF-- especially since JH & Vlad are prone to get banged up. But that role sure won't keep Murph's value as high as it is right now.
Sorry I didn't say: those numbers above are their OPS (on base % + slugging %).
Cheers.
1. A .290-.320 hitter with 25+ home runs
2. He might not have had a GREAT year, but he damn sure had a good one. His defense was an absolute game-changer, his hitting was at least average, and he stole 33 bases. It's like Kevin didn't even see Elvis play last year. Crazy.
3. Definitely. It is terribly terribly sad to imagine taking kids to Cooperstown to see a bunch of roided-up cheaters. The MLB simply needs to cut all ties from these disgraceful players.
4. Nope.
5. I'd be curious to see how that assessment would change if he got his fastball speed back. We'll see.
1. Have a huge bounce back year.
2. Statistical tools for evalutating players (where Goldstein works) say otherwise. Maybe he should read his own numbers. It doesn't seem like he put a lot of thought into that comment.
3. No. He was one of the best of a bunch of cheaters. His numbers warrant the Hall of Fame and that is all that should be considered.
4. I look for good things out of those two players in 2010. This is a huge season for Davis and he knows it. I don't think Cruz's numbers will suffer too much at a lower spot in the order.
5. I'm not writing Beavan off yet. I'm actually surpised and encouraged that he is doing so well with such a dropoff in velocity. Like some others have said, if he can regain some punch, with a different arm slot or whatever, look out. Otherwise, he stands a decent chance at a relief role in the bigs.