Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions
Kevin Millwood reacts after yielding a third-inning homer against the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, September 5th.1. The million-dollar question: With Texas presently trailing the division-leading Angels by 4½ games and the Wild Card-leading Red Sox by two games, is post-season baseball coming to Arlington this year?
2. Is staff "ace" Kevin Millwood finally running out of steam at the season's pivotal juncture? For that matter, will the Rangers ultimately come to regret the inclusion of the 2010 vesting option that has all but assured Millwood of a $12 million payday next season?
3. If you could offer only one multi-year contract extension to a non-free-agent-eligible Rangers player this coming winter (e.g. Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Frank Francisco), whom would that player be and what would you offer them?
4. Said manager Ron Washington of .270/.345/.559-hitting outfielder Nelson Cruz on Friday: "He's still not the guy he's capable of being. As strong as he is, if you keep giving him at-bats, he'll run into 30 home runs." Agree or disagree?
5. What is your single favorite moment of this often uplifting, sometimes maddening, but never boring 2009 season?
20 Comments | in Open Thread, The Season
Reader Comments (20)
Kevin Millwood has been a workhorse for the team and certainly an inspirational leader for the team.....but he has not had a 7-inning outing since June and his E.R.A. since then has skyrocketed to an astounding 5.00+ during that time. In watching Kevin over the past two months he seems to have command problems and struggles when on the mound to get through 5 or 6 innings. For 2010 at $12M I would have to question..........is he worth it any longer? Can he contribute other than an inspiration to the younger pitchers and his team mates? Is he really going to be able to help the team get into the post season? His performance against Baltiomore on Saturday (9-5) was not what this team needs to move forward. I have all the respect in the worl for Kevin Millwood but is he past his prim?
1. Who cares? The rangers did much better than any of us expected. Imagine where they would be if they were playing this well to start the regular season. The past few years the first few months have been a total waste. I can imagine them winning 100 games next year. Mark it down.
2. I think, He took well to Nolan's training regime, but, he must remember that he must do that for more than just one off-season. Next year, Millwood will win 18 games and we will be happy that we included this option. Remember everyone, we were not supposed to contend till next year, and we will definitely make the playoffs next year.
3. Wait on Elvis (will never make HUGE bucks), Cruz(WILL get spoiled with a big contract, and he is getting old), Wilson(never will make more than 5 million), and Frank (not worth the change, we can keep him for 7 million when he becomes a free agent). That leaves us with Josh. Last year was incredible. This year has been OK. Look at what he has done this past month with the great batting average. I would take a 360AVG over 40 homers and 290 avg any day. I would offer him 6 yr 50mil. Knowing that he will be hurt and that his body has taken a beating over the years. I have no doubt that he will stay clean and will never regress back to what he used to be. But he will continue to get hurt, and should take the 50mil.
4. He could hit 45 some year. I look at his AAAA numbers and just wish he could hit 30 and have an average of 300. If he can hit 300-30-120, I think he will get his money. He will also be motivated. He will only have one free agency to make the money. So he will have a couple more good/great years.
5. How each of our STUD relievers has blown a game. Watching the youth on the field. Watching the rangers actually have some pitching.
I was campaigning for Milwood to be shut down weeks ago, when we could have used his strained ass as an excuse. He'd been posting an ERA unindicative of his skills throughout the year, that 12 million is looking like an albatross.
I extend Elvis over any of those guys, and It's not particularly close. I think that going forward, he can be Jose Reyes with better D. If he's willing to take 7 years, which would extend his time here by 2 seasons, I jump on the opportunity.
Over time, I've arrived at the conclusion that ROn Washington is not a great baseball man. He is a great leader of men and the players love playing for him, but he doesn't really understand the way simple causation or deduction work. Cruz lacks big RBI numbers because he hits behind guys like David 'Workmanlike' Murphy and Marlon 'Average' Byrd, not in the 3 or 4 hole where he belongs. He's the best hitter on this team, whether Face is healthy or not. He takes walks and his power is tremendous.
I'm hoping that moment comes along in September. :)
1. Yes! I still believe when we play the Angels, we will step up!
2. Yes the option does not look good right now, but if we could just somehow skip our "ace" during the most important part of the season, he might have a little something his last few starts.
3. Lock up none of those as of now. Ok......maybe Elvis.......I love him so.......and if we can keep him away from the gulp.....Yankees, when Jeter retires in 6 years, then let's steal a year or 2 of his free agent years NOW!
4. Yes, I am amazed, when I look at Cruz's stat's how good they really are, considering how much it seems like he has slumped most of the year. He still could be better, next year even, but I'm not sure enough to throw big money at him when he is still controlable.
5. My fAvorite thing about this season is actually beating the Angels AND Red Sox, almost every game we played both of them ( after losing almost every game we played them last year)!
1. Come October, I expect this team to be playing the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs ... and beating them. Why not? I still believe we have not seen the best of this team, especially offensively. If we could get hot, look out.
2. They had to give him the fifth year in order to sign him. I don't like it now be cause I would rather Feliz or some other young stud take his place in the rotation. But i did like in then. I would love it if Millwood would walk at the end of this season and Ben Sheets joined the rotation of Feldman, Hunter, Holland, and Feliz in 2010, but alas ...
3. Josh would get it from me for many of the same reasons that Matt stated. However, I think it is more likely that he get a contract the following winter if '10 is a productive, healthy year for him. Cruz is also high on the list. Elvis will get his money but not for a few more years. CJ and Frankie are expendable with all the depth the Rangers have in there system.
4. I don;t know that he will ever live up to what he should have been simply because he is approaching thirty and this is his first full season in the bigs. I think he will be a fine player, and one that the Rangers should keep if they can, but he missed a lot of learning time toiling in the minors. I agree with Washington that what we have seen this year is not the best of Nelson Cruz.
5. I should say Derek Holland's shutout of the Angels because it is pitching related and the pitching is really the story of the season. However, I will always remember Chris Davis' walk off homer against them. That snapshot of Davis flipping his bat and being mobbed by his team mates will always remind me of this teams resiliency.
1. Still remains to be seen but is extremely possible. It's all about the schedules from here on out.
2. Millwood looks like he's out of gas, yes, but considering the way he's pitched all year (until recently), I wouldn't start regretting anything contract-wise yet. See if adjustments are made next year to keep in shape. Remember, next year is another contract year for Millwood.
3. Don't need to spend on any of those guys at this point. Cruz and Hamilton need to prove that they can consistently hit for power and stay healthy before they earn their payday. CJ and Frankie must pitch in a similar way but I'm also not a huge fan of overcompensating bullpen guys, though both of them are valuable arms to have. Lastly, Elvis is the only one I would consider throwing money at, but not for another couple years; that cash is best spent on free agent acquisitions now.
4. As I said above, Cruz must become more consistent. He's shown flashes of greatness and has made a strong case for returning to the team in the coming years. He's on my list of players I want to keep for 2010, even in the crowded outfield situation. For me at least, Murphy would be the odd man out if we were able to re-sign Marlon Byrd.
5. Michael Young's walk-off home run against the Royals back in April. Josh's catch at the wall against the Angels. Holland shutting out the Angels. Elvis Andrus. Julio Borbon. Cruz at the HR Derby. Feldman. Hunter. Pudge. Too many to choose from.
1) They own the Angels. As long as the Rangers are within 6 games when the two series with the Angels begin, the Rangers are in.
2) Yeah. He's run out of gas. But, he might have a couple more great outings in him. It's totally unpredictable at this point. And, he is worth the $12M vesting option. That's in the ballpark of what the open market would be for someone like him, even after the economic downturn. His exact value, according to a conversion of WAR to dollar values, is $9.1M.
3) Either CJ or Josh. I would have to go with CJ, whose multi-year contract will be a lot less than Hamilton's. Seems like they'll need to wait awhile before they have the resources to give Hamilton a reasonable offer.
4) Well, the rest of that quote had to do with RBI production and how Curz's RBI numbers don't add up to much when considering his immense power. It's hard to tell whether Wash was implying that Wash needed to get Cruz into a better position to produce RBIs or whether Wash believed Cruz needed to become more efficient, the latter would actually be pretty much impossible and if that's what Wash meant then he needs to get a grip.
5) Holland's shotout of the Angels.
2 favorite moments in a tie:
1. Davis' walkoff homerun vs. Seattle;
2. Holland's start on the eve of the trading deadline against Seattle, taking a 1 hitter into the 9th.
1 - No. But it's been fun, as advertized.
2 - Of course. Happens every year. I find it more disheartening that the Rangers haven't figured it out, and taken preventative action.
2b- Yes. But at least Kevin earned half of it.
3 - Until there's a new owner I don't offer anything to anyone. If I was forced to pick one I'd probably go Scott Feldman, though it might be wiser to try to lock up Francisco since he'll only have a year left before free agency.
4 - Hasn't Nelly already proven that correct?
5 - Neftali Feliz. Pick just about any moment. But his first appearance kinda stands out.
1. The Rangers finish 8 games back of Anahiem. No playoffs this year.
2. Millwood's performance, like many, is suffering from fatigue. The Rangers should not regret the vesting option. Millwood has been a great addition to the Rangers during the life of his contract.
3. Offer a five-year, $50 million deal to Hamilton. Negotiate while the terms can be favorable to the Rangers. Btw: Can the terms include Narron shadowing our boy for the length of the deal? As far as other players, the Rangers should pick up compensation picks by letting Francisco and Cruz walk. Wait another year before determining Andrus' value. Wait until after the 2011 season to consider Wilson..... his yo-yo performances make him a much greater risk, in my opinion, than Hamilton.
4. Agree with Washington.
5. August 9, 2009: Holland realizes his potential by tossing a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Anaheim.
as far as cruz, i have no idea what his body looks like. but you can tell he's a big dude.
i think an off-season with bit of weight loss (i'm also looking at you fatty francisco) and hard-core weight-training, cruz could turn into a monster. he has the size and apparent "intangibles" to be a star. swatting 30HRs seems like a given for him no matter what, it's muscle, speed, health, longevity thing he should maximize now.
1. very likely if quit loosing to teams we should beat (especially when we give the pitchers a lead)
2. Fatigue- let him skip start or two (put him back in when playing Angels)
3. have to say Hamilton (team has leverage right now due to injuries) then Andrus, let fat a-- Fransisco walk
4. agree he is not up to potential yet - needs to hit higher in line up to get more RBI's
5. Holland against Angels- team finally letting Padilla go
1. They can win the west, but they are gonna have to beat the Angels in most of their matchups with them this month and they cannot afford a losing streak of any type. They lose two or three in a row and I think it's over. But it is great talk Rangers playoff hopes in September!
2. Millwood is out of gas. He labors too much on the mound even early in the season.
3. Elvis CANNOT leave the building (i.e. Ballpark in Arlington). He'd be my "must" sign player.
4. Agree. Cruz has bigger years ahead.
5. Kinsler's hitting for the cycle (I was there!). Getting rid of the virus called "Padilla" and a tie between the young pitchers who show promise game after game.
I have to say my favorite moment of the season, oddly enough, was when John Lackey threw behind Kinsler and then got ejected from the game. It was symoblic of the shift in attitudes... for the past several years the Angels have bullied the Rangers both physically and mentally. That doesn't happen anymore. The look on Lackey's face was priceless - it was like the look on a schoolyard bully's face when he realizes someone just punched him in the mouth and his aura of invincibility is gone forever. The minute Lackey walked off that mound, I knew the Rangers would win that game. Texas has had the "mental upper hand" ever since.
Go Rangers !!!! Bring it home down the stretch !!!! Playoffs baby !!!!
1) unless we suddenly make Feliz a starter i don't see us getting in with our deteriorating rotation. Holland now looks like a fluke.
2) Millwood. No name inspires more hatred among fans for his seemingly lack of confidence or emotion. He's really a clubhouse favorite? Must be the jokes he tells between getting ass massages or giving up leads. Don't want him around next year.
3. Not sure about the free agent question. Would hate to have the option to only retain one when we need most of them back...what a bummer of a question, thanks for killing my Sunday morning just having to contemplate this.
4. Yes, Cruz is only going to get better...especially if we can find someone to hit around him.
5. Feliz coming in from the bullpen and watching the visceral reaction among the Ranger players. They know he is money.
Playoffs are a possibility, but the injuries to Hamilton & Young are a serious concern, as is Millwood's regression to his 2008 effectiveness. But this team does seem to be able to overcome seemingly insurmountable obstacles on a regular basis, and are hanging in there like seasoned veterans.
If a miracle does occur and they do make the playoffs as the wild card - Texas would face CC, Burnett and probably Pettitte in the first 3 games - and they would counter with Millwood, Feldman, and probably Hunter (that's if Millwood can even pitch in 30 days). Anyone still want to bet against NY in that hypothetical series?
The amount of wafering by rangers fans is hilarious. Holland now looks like a fluke...yes 2 bad starts absolutely make you a fluke. Forget one of the highest k/9's on this staff, he must be a fluke.
salman - what blogs are you reading? If it isn't bbtia.com, you should probably save your own sanity and just stop reading them.
(1) No. Red Sox schedule too easy.
(2) Yes, Millwood running out of steam.
(3) Elvis Andrus. I don't really follow the money aspect of baseball, so have no idea on what to pay him.
(4) I agree regarding Washington's confidence in Cruz.
(5) Elvis Andrus getting the double play to end the ninth inning meltdown and win the game versus the Yankees.
1. It is possible but the pitchers are going to have to step it up a bit. Particularly Millwood
2. I said during Spring training that Millwood should be placed in the bullpen as a long releiver. He seems tobe a good three inning guy. That would be an effective role for him although an expensive one. So yes, but only a 1 year albatross. He could always retire I guess.
3. If you could offer only one multi-year contract extension to a non-free-agent-eligible Rangers player this coming winter (e.g. Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Frank Francisco), whom would that player be and what would you offer them? Elvis Andrus no doubt
4. Said manager Ron Washington of .270/.345/.559-hitting outfielder Nelson Cruz on Friday: "He's still not the guy he's capable of being. As strong as he is, if you keep giving him at-bats, he'll run into 30 home runs." Agree or disagree? Agree
5. What is your single favorite moment of this often uplifting, sometimes maddening, but never boring 2009 season? Neftali Perez's first outing