Peering Into The Elias Crystal Ball: A Rangers Arbitration Update
Ivan Rodriguez makes a throw against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on Wednesday, September 9th.With the Texas Rangers' post-season odds finally laid to rest at the zero percent mark, and an opportunity to amass 90 wins for the first and only time in this decade quickly slipping away, the focus is going to be diverted away from the forgettable remnants of this exhausting 2009 season and towards more significant roster-molding matters, including 40-man roster finalizing, free agency and the all-important winter trade market.
Imperative to several of those dimensions of baseball's off-season is the issue of salary arbitration, a compensation-governing mechanism which figures to amply nourish the bank accounts of several newly arbitration-eligible Rangers this coming winter ... and maybe, just maybe, will furnish scouting director Ron Hopkins and his cadre of scouts with additional ammunition in next June's amateur draft.
Courtesy of Eddie Bajek and ESPN.com's Keith Law (via Tim Dierkes), here is where the Rangers' seven free agent-eligible players rank in the Elias Sports Bureau's numerical player rankings, which are used by Major League Baseball to determine a free agent's "type" -- Type A, Type B or unranked -- and award compensatory draft picks to teams losing ranked free agents:
['ST' denotes major league service time as of April 1st, 2009. All WAR (wins above replacement) figures courtesy of FanGraphs.]
The Rangers are exceedingly unlikely to offer salary arbitration to any of the non-highlighted players; a still-recuperating Benoit seems poised to be retained on a minor league deal, Guardado is on a collision course with retirement, Blalock and Jones will be doing the vagabond shuffle to some other organization and Vizquel ... well, is there any real upside to offering Vizquel arbitration? Not really, given that he's not going to recoup draft pick compensation if he were to decline the offer, and if the Rangers want to bring Vizquel back for another season-long tutoring session with Elvis Andrus, they'd probably prefer to do it independent of the arbitration process.
Rodriguez is a far stickier proposition, given the state of flux the catching situation seems to be mired in; Jarrod Saltalamacchia hasn't yet proven capable of curtailing the sky-high swing percentage that's undermining his entire offensive game, Taylor Teagarden has been an unmitigated disaster against right-handed pitching and Max Ramirez is about to be an unproven 25-year-old catcher with suspect defensive credentials -- a far cry from the good position this organization appeared to be in a year ago catching-wise. There's evidently mutual interest between the Rangers and Pudge as far as a potential reunion tour in 2010, and, frankly, it wouldn't remotely shock me to see that happen.
I find it a tad surprising that Pudge's Elias score actually isn't all that far removed from that of the bottommost Type A catcher, which is probably something of a blessing in disguise: affix the Type A label to his jersey lapel, and he becomes significantly less appealing league-wide (see also: Cruz, Juan), since any general manager interested in signing him would be forced to relinquish a second-round pick at best and a highly coveted first-round pick at worst. Of course, even if the Rangers were to decide that they didn't want Pudge and offered up arbitration in the hopes of his rejection (thereby securing a supplemental-round draft pick), there's a reasonable chance that he, wanting to stay in Texas, would foil the entire plan by accepting the offer.
Byrd is a far more open-and-shut case; the Rangers can offer arbitration with confidence, knowing full well that he's going to decline the offer irrespective of whether Texas elects to lock him up with a multi-year contract or allows him to browse the free agent market. It's either a healthy amount of untapped capital and a draft pick in the No. 40-50 range, or Byrd's services -- but not both.
What's baffling to me is the latest scuttlebutt wave from MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, which suggests that the Rangers have prioritized re-signing Byrd (?!) and prominently features this quote from Michael Young: "We have to sign Marlon Byrd. No question about it." You'll have to pardon me for vesting belief in the notion that a low-payroll team working through a murky financial situation doesn't have much business sinking $15-20 million into a non-essential and non-elite player, regardless of the innumerable leadership qualities he might possess.
Injury News: The Rangers have officially shut down ailing outfielder Josh Hamilton (pinched sciatic nerve) for the remainder of the 2009 regular season; he will undergo further treatment and embark upon a rehab program in preparation for 2010 spring training ... Outfielder Marlon Byrd (hip capsule strain) is officially day-to-day, but it might be prudent for the sake of his own health to shelve him for the remaining five games ... First baseman Chris Davis (strained hamstring) is day-to-day.
Quick Hits: Manager Ron Washington on 21-year-old fireballer Neftali Feliz: "I do believe, from what he's shown out of the bullpen this season, that he could be a threat four or five times a week rather than once a week." ... Washington apparently doesn't want to play Julio Borbon in center field until the Rangers have clinched second place in the division; Borbon will play center field this winter for Águilas Cibaeñas of the Dominican Winter League with the intent of sharpening his outfield defense.
Sinkerballer Scott Feldman effectively removed himself from the fringes of Cy Young Award contention on Tuesday evening, logging just 3.2 innings of four-run baseball while yielding seven hits and three walks ... Dennis Gilbert, whose investor group hopes to place the prevailing bid for the Rangers, attended both Monday's and Tuesday's games in Anaheim; previous reports relayed by Reeves suggested that team president Nolan Ryan could be dislodged if Gilbert's group were to acquire the Rangers, but an associate of Gilbert's characterized those reports "erroneous." ... Media shifting: Richard Durrett has joined ESPN Dallas, while Evan Grant has returned to the Dallas Morning News.
12 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (12)
It will be interesting to see what kind of interest Byrd gets on the open market. How many team would want him as a starting OF?
The comments by Wash about Feliz and his placing value on a 2nd place finish are the types of comments that make me think that he is out-of-the-loop or a dumbass. Maybe both.
Yeah... that Bourbon thing is weird. What's the logic in that? I have to say... most of the year I gave Wash the benefit of the doubt and thought he was making some intelligent decisions as opposed to last year but through this September collapse he has made some real freakin' questionable moves. He's not really endearing himself to the fan basel...
Did anyone else feel like the Angels were pouring salt in the wound last night by pretty much marching their AAA team out there? We should have beat the crud out of them!! I hope this series lights a fire in the Rangers bellies for next year... the Angels are embarressing them right now! I HATE the Angels!! I'm so tired of seeing them in the postseason!!
Agreed. I don't see how a second place finish and playing Borbon in center have any correlation whatsoever. If anything, he should play him there every day since we know we're not making the playoffs this year and he apparently needs work at the position.
The Feliz comments actually make a little bit of sense because there's not gonna be any room for him in the starting rotation next year. We will have Millwood and Feldman, with Hunter, McCarthy, Holland, Harrison and maybe Nippert competing for spots. And that's not counting the signing of Sheets, which according to whose argument you believe, sounds pretty imminent... That's eight guys right there without Feliz. It would be nice if it became sort of a Papelbon type situation since we could use an upgrade in the 'pen.
I agree with Kyle; lets run Feliz out there as the Closer 4 or 5 times a week to shut down games. That role could be every bit as important as him winning 10-12 games as a starter (you're not going to throw him more than 120-130 IP anyway). Not to mention the fact that his innings can be closely watched... and then, maybe in 2011 we reconsider putting him in the rotation.
Is Sheets still a realistic possibility and if so, will he be cheaper on a 1 or 2 yr deal coming off a year on the DL?
Ahh, what to with Byrd; even though Byrd is much more of a leader than Gary Matthews... that seems like a reasonable comp. The Angels rue the day they gave Matthews $50M... and the Rangers made the prudent move by letting him go. I don't think that with the economy still in the dumps and Byrd being 32 yrs old he's going to get anywhere near Matthews money... but I could see a team like the Giants offering him 4 yrs/$28M. That's just too much money to sink into Byrd and would limit what we can do in locking up all these young guys to long term deals. I believe we have seen the last of Marlon Byrd.
Hamilton's Sciatic Nerve bothers me. Those type of injuries can be debilitating and long lasting. I'm fearful that we may never again see the 08 version of Hammy... and that really bums me out.
I know nothing about Dennis Gilbert but if he buys the team and blows it up... even if he blows it up in the sense that he spends like crazy on FAs (at the expense of younger players developing), I will have to strongly reconsider my loyalty to the Rangers.
Now what if Gilbert came in and made a "sexy" move by firing Wash and hiring Bobby V.? Would Bobby V. play/develop the youngsters? Would he get along with someone like JD? What would Nolan think of this move?
It's food for thought...
@Pablo: This makes no sense.
"(you're not going to throw him more than 120-130 IP anyway). Not to mention the fact that his innings can be closely watched... and then, maybe in 2011 we reconsider putting him in the rotation"
If you are going to limit his innings in 2010 because he only has pitched ~100 this year, what are you going to do in 2011 after he only throws 80 out of the Rangers bullpen?
I think it will be interesting to see how serious Byrd's injury turns out to be. If it's something that ends up needing surgery, I could see that making it more difficult for him to get a multi-year deal, and consequently make it more likely for him to sign a one year deal with Texas or accept arbitration.
"Is Sheets still a realistic possibility and if so, will he be cheaper on a 1 or 2 yr deal coming off a year on the DL?"
There has been some hearsay (from the Ticket's Mike Bacsik, I believe) that Sheets isn't sure if he'll ever pitch again, implying that his rehab is not going as well as he had hoped. What you'll usually hear around this time of year are the agents of potential reclamation projects "puffing" their clients' rehab progress and bellowing from the mountaintops about the great shape they're going to be in come spring training. The fact that we've heard essentially nothing from the Sheets camp doesn't strike me as a great sign, but it's all circumstantial until something drops with more substance.
If the Rangers -- or any team for that matter -- sign Sheets, it'll probably be on a heavily incentive-laden minor league deal. In this economy, I'm not sure any team is inclined to throw guaranteed money at a guy who might have a 10 percent chance of being really good again, a 40 percent chance of being demonstrably worse and a 50 percent chance of spending most of his season on rehab assignments.
Joey - Have you heard anything about Benoit's recovery? How is he doing, what kind of progress is he making, and how likely do you think it is that Texas brings him back in 2010? Will he even be ready to go in April?
I'd like to ask the same question about Eric Hurley, too.
I watched Borbon throw the ball from leftfield before the runner had even reached 3rd base and there was no play at the plate...Not even a glimmer of a chance at an out...this makes me seriously wonder if he can even be a big league outfielder...so then I say to myself he needs to be in the line up but his assets are not typical DH quality...I hope they have a K-mart at winter ball for julio to buy a hose...As far as Scossia playing younger players he was probably doing that as a favor to us to give us a chance to stay in the race and we couldn't even beat the Salt Lake City affiliate they were runnning out there? Hard to take
Benoit threw 30-35 fastballs for the first time since he underwent surgery back on August 17th and hopes to be ready for spring training, although that might be pushing things a little bit; rotator cuff surgery isn't nearly as career-crippling as it was a decade ago, but I would imagine that he might not be able to contribute until mid-season 2010. He apparently wants to come back to Texas, and since no team is going to risk a guaranteed deal on a guy fresh off a torn rotator cuff, it's my expectation that the Rangers will give him an incentive-based minor league deal, allowing him to continue his rehab under the team's medical supervision and sort of "rewarding" him for his longevity in the organization.
Hurley resumed throwing earlier this summer and will apparently be "100 percent" in time for spring training, although that's certainly a relative term -- is 100 percent of Hurley now equivalent to 85 percent of Hurley two years ago?
Bringing back Pudge and Byrd scares me with Wash still writing the lineup, it will do nothing but hurt Borbon and Salty/Tea's developement. This is still a young team and Wash is showing that he may not be the right guy for this job.
After supporting Wash for most of the year I have begun to have serious doubts in the last month as to whether he's the guy to lead this team to the next level. Play for second place? Hell, we can't beat their AAA players.