NEWSFLASH: Rangers Acquire Pitching Prospect Danny Gutierrez
Joey Matschulat
Danny Gutierrez fires a pitch for High-A Wilmington on Saturday, August 8th.The organization that has time and time again demonstrated its commitment to the continuous acquisition of young, controllable and -- most importantly -- upper-tier pitching talent has cashed in two minor league trade chips for one of the Royals' most enigmatic young hurlers.
Pure talent-for-talent baseball trades evocative of yesteryear are even more infrequent at this late stage in the baseball season than usual, but Texas and Kansas City nevertheless consummated a surprising early-September two-for-one prospect swap on Thursday afternoon, with the Rangers shipping Double-A Frisco catcher Manny Pina and outfielder Tim Smith to the Royals in exchange for intriguing, but imperfect 22-year-old right-hander Danny Gutierrez.
Gutierrez, a 6' 1", 180-pound native of Los Angeles, California, is a challenging prospect to nail down in terms of both present value and projected future value, with his loosely affixed "breakout candidate" label being an important component of the Rangers' eagerness to pull the trigger on his acquisition; concurrently, his vaguely referenced off-the-field problems serve to explain why Kansas City entertained dealing him in the first place.
Deemed the seventh-best prospect in the Royals organization by industry publication Baseball America last November, the 2006 draft-and-follow signee has notably incurred two significant arm-related injuries in the last 18 months, missing the entirety of May 2008 -- which was preceded by a stellar 2007 instructional league performance -- with a hairline fracture in his pitching elbow, followed by a protracted stint on the minor league disabled list (right shoulder inflammation) that delayed his 2009 season debut until July 28th.
The good news is that Gutierrez is a live-armed entity with strong grounder-inducing tendencies, qualities which broadly appeal to any number of teams but are especially attractive to an organization with a pitch-to-contact orientation already in place.
Brandishing a low-90s heater -- which, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, "[sat] at 93-95 mph towards the end of [2008] with outstanding location and a bit of sink" -- and a formidable 12-to-6 power curveball that was ranked as the best in the Royals' system by Baseball America, Gutierrez profiles as an solid-average reliever at the major league level on the low end of the upside spectrum, and perhaps much more than that if he manages to corral his inconsistent, concern-evoking change-up.
Of course, prospect-related assumptions are always dangerous, and given his recent encounters with the injury bug and the present lack of a reliable third pitch, he may ultimately settle in as a bullpen weapon ... or, if enough things break right, he might break out as a starter. The raw stuff, control and necessary early-career results are all there right now, but will they stay there?
[Incidentally, Gutierrez is currently listed as the seventh and final player in the Rangers' Arizona Fall League contingent, which will suit up for the Surprise Rafters in the not-so-distant future. There had been some speculation that that single vacancy might have been filled by unsigned supplement-round draft pick Tanner Scheppers, but no agreement has yet materialized and the Rangers have evidently opted to push forward.
Also, the exact nature of Gutierrez's transgressions is difficult to ascertain for obvious reasons (major league teams don't generally like to air their dirty laundery in public), but a synthesis of the reports that are out there indicates that the Royals apparently disciplined Gutierrez after he became a client of superagent Scott Boras and resisted Kansas City's prescribed plan for rehabilitation from his shoulder injury. Additionally, there are unconfirmed reports of an arrest that transpired during his time in Arizona, the specifics of which are not presently known.]
Pina's defense-inclined skill set might well render him a fine backup catcher someday, but the 22-year-old backstop's tepid bat had evoked questions about his ability to passably hit at the major league level and he's thusly not a huge loss; Smith, however, could conceivably emerge as a serviceable reserve outfielder down the line, particularly in light of his pedigree as a well-rounded collegiate player, and he's the player that could eventually come back to singe Texas if Gutierrez's prospect star should ultimately flame out.
Reader Comments (10)
As much as I liked Tim Smith (and the Rusty Greer comp), this was a no brainer. We will be lucky to package the comming years rule 5 guys in return for a player with upside like this again. Danny Gutierrez was said by BA to have the best curveball and best control in the entire Royals system. And he also limits the running game by varying his timing to the plate and his pickoff move. Sounds like a perfect fit for our new defense wins motto. Not to mention limiting walks with good control. The real kicker will be if his new found velocity (touching 95) sticks around for the long haul!
To paraphrase the talking plant from Little Shop of Horrors, "Feed me...more pitchers!" A bit of a gamble but pitchers with upside are worth taking a chance for.
The AA rotation next year should be very interesting:
Perez
Gutierrez
Gomez - #1 on my breakout list for 2010
Beavan
Bleier (or Main or Murphy)
David - where's Kiker on your AA rotation? Are you assuming he gets promoted to AAA?
This seems like a good trade for JD... only time will tell... but I'm becoming a bit concerned with our lack of positional player depth in the minor leagues. Perhaps JD and Nolan figure they can buy certain guys for OF/IF depth, etc... which is cool with me but at some point I think they'll need to focus on BATS and not so much on ARMS... (I can't believe I'm actually saying this).
Would someone PLEASE explain to me what "draft and follow" means? Does it mean you've drafted a guy but you're going to let him continue playing collegiately (or independent ball, etc...)?
As I understand it a draft and follow is where you draft a player and elect to let him continue playing in junior college while retaining the rights to sign him up until the week before the next year's draft. As soon as a player attends class at a full university, he looses his draft and follow eligibility.
Does anyone knows anything about Tanner Scheppers? why is taking so long to know if he is going to be a ranger or not?
Pabloesque - I expect Kiker to join Poveda, Hurley (hopefully), and two of Feliz, Moscoso, and Harrison in the AAA rotation to begin next season.
While I agree that the Rangers' system is heavily weighted toward pitching prospects, I am not sure that having Smith and Pina really change that very much. Neither player projects to be much morethan a backup at the major league level.
Draft and follow was a strategy that was used by teams before the advent of the August signing deadline for draft picks in 2007. Prior to that, players could sign with the team that drafted them as late as a few days before the draft the following year. The draft and follow strategy allowed teams to take fliers on talented players using late round picks and if the player blossomed before the following draft, the team woudloffer them a lucratove contract to keep them from entering teh following year draft. Gutierrez was a 33rd round pick of the Royals in the 2005 draft who did not sign with the team until 2006.
Beautiful... thanks guys!
David - you really think it's possible Feliz will ever again smell the minor leagues?
I'm kind of worried for fans who think that because Feliz is doing what he's doing right now, they can pencil him in as a starter next year with a sub-2.00 era and 300 strikeouts. For a fair comparison, consider what David Price did in relief for the Rays on their WS team, and then look how he's done as a starter in the AL East this season. Good - yes. Dominant - no. Feliz might well be better than Price, but he's going to have some bumps along the way eventually. And yes, that might mean a trip down to the minors at some point next season.