The Brighter Side Of Derek Holland
Derek Holland fires a second-inning pitch against the Angels on Sunday, September 20th.Tough weekend. Tough series. Tough month. Contrary to the pre-season prognostications of several noted forecasting systems, maintaining a .550 winning percentage through the regular season's first five months and then coasting along at a .500-caliber clip the rest of the way has not proven nearly enough to keep pace with the front-running Angels, much less hold the division lead.
Any latent hope of salvaging two games out of three against Anaheim this past weekend were effectively dashed by Derek Holland's latest command-deficient start, in which the 22-year-old left-hander was clubbed to the tune of six earned runs in just 5.2 innings -- denoting the fifth consecutive start in which he has yielded at least five earned runs and inflating his seasonal ERA to the unsightly figure of 6.17.
[Incidentally, since Holland snapped off four high-quality starts in five attempts between July 30th and August 20th, his ERA has resided in the double digits. Some 1,000-plus miles to the northeast, Roy Halladay has been busy being ... well, Roy Halladay. There are plenty of good reasons why general manager Jon Daniels didn't pull the trigger on any trade configuration singularly focused on bringing Halladay to Texas, but after the well from which Holland drew his hypnotic powers ran dry, one of the arguments for the deal being made became far more evident: Halladay is simply the better all-around pitcher.
In an alternate reality, does Texas secure a post-season spot after swinging a blockbuster deal for Halladay's services? Given that the real devil lurks menacingly in the lineup, probably not ... but Halladay would have given the Rangers that two- to three-win boost that seemed so much more important seven weeks ago than it does today, so never let it be said again that not completing that deal enhanced the Rangers' post-season chances in the here and now. It really didn't.]
Now, since there's really something to be said for accentuating the positive right now, allow me to point out that Holland, in spite of his recently inadequate command and frustrating hittability, posted five strikeouts to just one walk on Sunday afternoon. "So what," you mockingly snort, "he got blasted!" As true as that may be, starting pitchers who can consistently miss bats and avoid the bane of every pitching coach's existence (walks) are extremely valuable commodities and, given a large enough sample, typically rise above their less-talented peers in terms of run prevention.
How does Holland's above-average strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 96-to-43 stack up historically? Using Baseball Reference's acclaimed Play Index, I proceeded to isolate the only 58 starting pitchers in the last 129 years who (a) logged at least 100 innings in their first major league season and (b) struck out at least seven batters per nine innings during that same season, then ranked these starting pitchers by their strikeouts-to-walks ratios:
[Click here to check out the entire 58-player list. Also, please take note of the attractive new table format. It took longer to fine-tune it than you might think.]
Rather prestigious company, no? Hanson is held in exceedingly high regard, Lincecum is a freak of nature and Cueto is a nice little pitcher in his own right, albeit to a lesser degree (his recent encounters with shoulder inflammation and general fatigue notwithstanding); Tiant, ever the reliable above-average hurler, nabbed two ERA titles and four All-Star appearances during a highly productive 19-year major league career.
Neither Smith (who was already 30 years old by the time of his rookie accomplishment) nor Bennett (beset by arm troubles after his third major league season) quite compare to some of the higher-ranked names above the No. 24 spot, including the likes of Brandon Webb, Kerry Wood, James Shields, Bert Blyleven, Cole Hamels, Mark Prior, Don Sutton, Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens, just to name a few. Flanking Holland on the lower side? Try the contemporary-loaded quintet of Javier Vazquez, John Danks, Clayton Kershaw, Freddy Garcia and CC Sabathia.
There is an existing line of thought that holds that the Rangers should launch Holland's 2010 campaign at Triple-A Oklahoma City, enabling him to fine-tune his repertoire and mound approach in a lower-pressure environment and, in effect, allowing him to "learn how to pitch." Irrespective of which level the Rangers elect to employ him at six months down the road, it's imperative that we recognize that Holland's gargantuan ERA is not reflective of his true talent level and that, with the proper handling, he is still capable of doing some very, very special things on the pitcher's mound before it's all said and done.
15 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (15)
How important is consistency? Holland is not a bad as his numbers and has a bright futre. Kinsler is not as good as his numbers and may be headed into a Blalock type of hacktastic abyss.
Start off in OKC next year? Poppycock, he's learning right now and he'll be better next year for it. He starts in Arlington next spring, period.
I kind of agree with tball - I think both Feliz and Holland should go into ST as starters next season.
Holland needs to improve on three things to become an above average starter:
(1) Reduce his HR rate - He has given up 1.77 HR/9 this season due primarily to a 16% HR/FB rate that is significantly higher than the ~10% HR/FB that is league average.
(2) Improve on stranding runners - He has stranded only 65% of baserunners this year. Good pitchers strand 72-77%.
(3) Increase his groundball rate - Holland's GB rate currently sits at 41%. Most of the league's top starting pitchers have GB rates of at least 45%. Groundballs reduce HR's, increase double plays and improve strand rates.
Fortunately for Holland, the greatest areas of improvement between Year 1 and Year 2 for most good young pitchers are groundball rate and strand rate. The reasons that young pitchers tend to improve is because they become more compfortable with their secondary pitches. Holland has thown his fastball more than 72% of the time this year. He needs to drop that to no more than 65% of the time and use his change-up more than the 9% of the time that he has this year.
With an improved pitch mix, don't be surprised to see Holland approach the 0.4 HR/9 and 46% groundball rate that he enjoyed in his minor league career. If he does that and maintains his strikeout and walk rates, then his ERA should come in at around 4.00 and he shoudl be sitting near the top of the Rangers' rotation.
If you haven't read Jamey's column today, here it is: http://www.newbergreport.com/
Jamey hit the nail on the head (as he often does)...
2009 has been an exciting season... and 2010 will be even more exciting.
JD has some tough decisions this off-season; What to do about Hamilton? Do we trade Kins in hope that his value is high enough to bring back a nice player? Is Blalock's Ranger career over? Who plays 1B next year? Who is our DH of the future?
I think JD would be prudent to maybe look at Billy Beanes last few off-seasons; he's traded away talented guys while their value was still high, to rebuild. We don't need to rebuild... but JD cannot take a rest because we had some success. He needs to look hard at trading away some of our depth (not pitching depth, mind you) to bring in future pieces of the puzzle.
My biggest concerns are Hammy and Kins. Do we trade these guys away and attempt to find guys that play good defense and are high OBP players? I don't know. I'm inclined to think Hammy will be back and have a great 2010. Not so sure on Kinsler. He put up nice numbers but he's a little injury prone and is a bit full of himself. He may make good trade bait.
Problem with trading Kinsler is that if you don't get another 2b for him, you have to AGAIN move Michael to 2b, with Chris Davis taking over 3b presumably. Not sure that's a good idea.
I would say this about Kinsler: if you take away the unfortunate comments about fans, and you compare his numbers with other 2b across the league, he is pretty damned productive for a 2b. He's easily in the top 10 in all of baseball in offensive production, despite his swing-and-miss tendencies. He plays good enough defense and his speed and instinct on the bases are both positives. My thought is that Kinsler can benefit from hitting later in the lineup where it isn't as crucial for him to get on base any way he can. And then the club needs to work with him on the virtue of taking a single or just trying to drive the ball into the gap in certain situations, rather than trying to hit the ball out every time. Michael has made an all-star career at doing that - he can be the model for Kinsler's improvement plan.
So I would be loathe to get rid of Kinsler without getting a really, really good player back for him. I'm not sure that blowing up the team at this point would make sense. They need to add a piece here and there - much of that will come from the inside - and keep developing those players and moving them up a level or two each season.
If Hideki Matsui weren't left-handed, I'd say he'd be just the guy to bring in here to DH next year. They need a good bat for the middle of their lineup.
The one glaring change you gentleman fail to touch upon is the extreme defecincies we have at the managerial position...Another brilliant move by the "Manager of the Rear" was to bring Grilli in yesterday...No wonder we have had such good success this year...With a manager like that we should've won the World Series...Put that fool in LA and we would be the ones in first place and the angels would be floundering.
As for Holland? Never should've been on the field yesterday! He has sucked for weeks and yet when we need 2 of 3 out of this series we run his unprepared butt out there...Again "Manager of the Rear"...I guess third place in the American League West aint bad right? At this rate Seattle will ctach us...Holland better be at the Big league level in 2010 or the sacrificing of this year by running his weak stuff out there will be for not!
JIM - I certainly was NOT suggesting they blow up the team... not at all!
All that I'm saying is I might be inclined to shop Kins around to see what he might fetch... especially coming off a 30/30 year... but I would NEVER suggest they give him up for anything of lesser value.
I don't know what to think of Hamilton. I love the guy and I want him to succeed maybe more than any other MLB player... but his production and trips to the DL are very disturbing. His lack of plate discipline is equally disturbing.
I'm just throwing out the idea that if JD were to discreetly shop these guys around, maybe fetching a few players that will help this team get over the top, I'd be all for it. For instance, what if Hamilton or Kins was floated to the Giants for Matt Cain... would you do it?
We could find a replacement at 2B in free agency... there has to be someone out there that would be a good fit.
I think you'd take Cain for Kinsler in a heartbeat, but there's no way SF is giving him away that cheap.
I think that Holland might very well start at 3A next year. However, the reason for that is that Hurly and Harrison will have been to winterball and may be ready to step back into a rotation. Both are or were at a more advanced place than Holland.
I put Millwood's over paid uniform in the bullpen next year as a long-relief/spot starter. If Millwood is in the rotation he is my 5th starter. An open day rotation might look more like Feldman, Hunter, Harrison, & Hurly, Nippert and Millwood filling out the last two spots.
I leave Feliz right where he is. Having someone come in for two innings, twice a week and strike out 5 per outing is a good thing to have in your bullpen.
If I trade a pitcher, maybe Francisco or maybe Wilson
That said, I thought that Feldman should start at 3A this year.
Fai Mao: I'll be floored if Hurley manages to work himself into consideration for the Opening Day rotation. Reports on his recovery are positive -- he's currently on a throwing program in Surprise -- and the Rangers believe he will be back at full strength by spring training, but he hasn't thrown a single game pitch since last July and will be nearly two years removed from his last game action by the time spring training rolls around. Absolute best case scenario for his return to the majors is ... All-Star break? If he's recalled sooner than that, it's more likely that it will be due to the major league rotation running out of depth than Hurley forcing the issue with great pitching at Frisco or OKC.
We also don't know how much of "it" Hurley has lost through all of this, and while sports medicine is extremely progressive and the return rate of torn rotator cuff-touting pitchers has unequivocally improved in the last few years, I'm not really counting on getting much, if anything, out of Hurley in 2010. Hope he makes me look foolish, but the odds are stacked against him. By 2011 he'll be in his age-25 season and potentially destined for a relief role, since injury-checkered pitchers with nondescript career profiles generally don't have much trade value.
Jim and StopMillwood.com (which is one of the more amusing handles I've seen lately): If we're to believe what we've been hearing lately, Texas will be paring salary like the state of California this winter, so I'm not sure how the Rangers could afford to sign a decent replacement second baseman anyway.
With the pitcher's listed in post on Lone Star Ball.....don't the starter's seem to be Millwood, Feldman, Hunter, Harrison, & BMac with Holland, Feliz & Nippert (and possibly Hurley who may need more rehab time) joining O'Day, CJ & Frankie in the 'pen?
That's 11 guys (12 if Hurley's ready) and sets up a pretty decent staff......Holland & Nippert can spot start or step in in case of injuries (there always are some)....seems Holland & Feliz are better served in the bigs than back in AAA.
(What would a healthy Ben Sheets add to that?)
Feldman, Hunter, McCarthy, Harrison, Nippert, Holland, Millwood...(Hurley?) Not a bad poblem to have provided Holland reaches potential...CJ never did...I also think Mathis is underated and ready to be a real factor...When have we ever had pitching depth like this? I would say never...We have got to find a way to be more productive at the plate...I think Davis will breakout in a big way next year and he looked fantastic at third last night...I am seriously worried about KINSLER...I do not like what I have seen from him...Not just the fall back in the numbers department but the attitude department has now become a question...He has done/said some things that are less than intelligent of late...I had never seen this side of him...Can't have guys that lack character...Can't count on them...Yelling get the f*** off my field to a team that has owned your organization for the past ten years is not very intelligent and why would you provide extra motivation to the opponent...Not smart...I am truly concerned about a spot that I felt was locked up for a while..
Holland will put up better numbers than Feliz and Hunter as a SP next year.
If their was ever a guy who was screaming breakout season after an outwardly poor season, Holland is that guy. Those HR per FB % are bound to regress downward next year and alot of those strand rates and the like are very likely to proceed back to the norm. Holland has the makings of a great pitcher