Elvis Andrus smashes a double in his first major league at-bat on April 6th, 2009.2009 was supposed to be a developmental year for the Texas Rangers, as the team transitioned Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon to the major leagues, converted Michael Young to a third baseman, and decided the fates of Nelson Cruz and a battery of unproven pitchers. All of this was done in anticipation of fielding a team that could contend for a playoff spot ... in 2010! 

The fact that the Rangers are contending in 2009 is due in large measure to the success of the teams' rookies. According to FanGraphs, Andrus, Borbon, Holland, Feliz, Taylor Teagarden, Tommy Hunter, and Doug Mathis have combined for 8.1 wins above replacement (WAR). That represents 21 percent of the team's total WAR this season. The next most productive set of rookies this season belongs to the Athletics, whose collection of first-year players has accounted for 6.7 WAR. The average contribution of rookies to each of the major league teams in 2009 currently stands at 2.1 WAR. Rookie contributions to the four likely AL playoff teams are 1.9 (Angels), 1.6 (Tigers), 1.4 (Red Sox), and 0.1 (Yankees). 

To put the success of the Rangers' current rookie class into perspective, it is worth noting that only seven other teams have had rookie classes that have totaled at least eight wins above replacement since 2003. Four of those teams (Braves, Athletics, Red Sox and Dodgers) made the playoffs either the year that the rookies debuted, the year after, or both. The three teams with productive rookie classes who failed to make the playoffs (Pirates in 2005, Marlins in 2006, and Athletics in 2007) all exceeded 8.0 WAR with very large rookie classes that played on teams with very few productive veterans. While not a guarantor of future success, it is encouraging to note that strong rookie classes often beget playoff berths.

PLAYER LIFE CYCLES

One of the great things about productive rookies is that they typically become even more productive in their second and third seasons. The table below shows the average WAR for players from the 2003-2008 seasons who were in their first, second, third, fourth, fifth, or sixth year using the 2003-2008 seasons. The list of players was restricted to those who had not played in the major leagues prior to 2002 and who had pitched at least 20 innings or had at least 100 at-bats in the major leagues in a given season. The sharp increase in production during an average player's second and third seasons results from increased playing time and effectiveness:

Assuming the Rangers' current rookies enjoy annual improvements that are similar to major leaguers from the past six years, the team will benefit from having seven players who combine for 14 wins above replacement in 2010 and 20 wins above replacement in 2011. If this year's rookie class yields three starting pitchers, a starting shortstop and a starting center fielder, then that level of production seems entirely possible.

The total WAR for the five best teams in baseball this season are 51.6 (Yankees), 46.1 (Red Sox), 44.9 (Rays), 40.7 (Dodgers), and 39.6 (Angels). If the combination of Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Chris Davis, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Scott Feldman, C.J. Wilson, Frank Francisco, David Murphy, and Darren O'Day can maintain their current 25 WAR output for the next few seasons, then the projected improvements of the Rangers' current rookie class should be enough to vault the team into the 40-plus WAR category of the contenders.       

THE ROOKIE PIPELINE

The Rangers' 2009 rookie class is the latest in a series of strong groups that the team has graduated. Rookies in the previous three seasons have posted cumulative WARs of 3.3, 2.4, and 4.3. With the exception of the 2007 rookies (which included Jarrod Saltalamacchia and David Murphy, both of whom were acquired at the trade deadline), each of the Rangers' four most recent sets of rookies have exceeded the league-average WAR.  The Rangers' have become one of the best organizations in baseball at developing productive young players.

With Justin Smoak, Pedro Strop, Max Ramirez, Guillermo Moscoso and Omar Poveda likely to contribute to the major league team in 2010, it appears that the Rangers will have another strong rookie class. Depending on a variety of factors, it is possible that one or more of Kasey Kiker, Mitch Moreland, Daniel Gutierrez, Blake Beavan and Martin Perez could spend time in the major leagues next season as well.

So fear not, Rangers fans. The team's playoff hopes have dimmed substantially in the past few days, but the team's future shines as brightly as ever.