Good stuff as always David. I am curious about Andrew Doyle. How did he rank?

Thanks, Rob. Doyle was #9 on the reliever list with an overall score of 122. As expected, he exhibited very good control in the 25.2 innings that he pitched out of the Spokane and Hickory bullpens (2.1 BB/9). The 11.5 K/9 that he posted was completely unexpected. He should get the Hunter/Murphy treatment and begin next season as a starter for the Blaze. Let's hope that he follows the Path of Tommy and eschews the Path of Tim.

I feel that Richard Bleier has been consistently underrated. The kid doesn't walk anyone, has a great GO/AO percentage, and has thrown 170 innings. With a good defense behind him, his record would be a lot better. Oh, and he's only given up nine homers all year. Granted he's not the hardest thrower in the world, but his velocity should pick up next year to what it was in college. Any comments?

Fascinating to look at all that data in one place, as always, David. Why don't you include GB rates in your pitcher charts? You've rightly stressed the importance of GB rate as a factor in success in your other pitcher studies. And any formula that consistently ranks Kiker's 2009 above that of Perez must be flawed.

Perhaps your formula unfairly helps some (like Kiker) and hurts a guy like Wieland, who pitched with decent peripherals but whose numbers may have been hurt by the historically awful Hickory defense. I don't mean to sound too down on Kiker, but I agree that he's probably a future reliever and his performance this year, with too many walks and too few innings per start, doesn't seem to warrant his lofty ranking above.

Rocky - Bleier's 2009 minor league performance ranked #24 among Rangers' minor league starters with an overall score of 104. That score suggests that when you account for age. league, strikeout rate, and WHIP, Bleier had a pretty average year. I agree that his control and groundball rate are very impressive, but his strikeout rate (6.7 K/9) suggests that he is going to struggle as he moves up the minor league ladder. While there are exceptions (Tommy Hunter might be one), very few pitchers become productive major leaguers after posting pedestrian strikeout rates as minor leaguers.

For fun, below are a few career minor league numbers for Bleier, Hunter, and the Rangers minor leaguer whose career I think will be most similar to Bleier's.

In 2 minor league seasons, Bleier has posted a 4.03 ERA, 6.6 K/9, and 1.5 BB/9.
In 3 minor league seasons, Tommy Hunter posted a 3.57 ERA, 6.1 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9.
In 4 minor league seasons, Mike Ballard has posted a 4.57 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9.

Except for the walk rates and Hunter's ERA, the numbers posted by the three pitchers are about average for minor league starters.

So what separates Hunter from the other two? Velocity is certainly a significant separator - Hunter's fastball tops out at 94-95 MPH whereas the other two pitchers are ~5 MPH lower.

The other key difference is the players' promotion schedule. As 22 year old, Hunter spent significant time in AA and AAA and even received a cameo in the majors. Bleier spent most of his 22 yo season in High A while Ballard spent his time in short season A-ball after being drafted by the Rangers in the 14th round. Hunter's aggressive promotion schedule revealed that the Rangers' coaches and scouts were very impressed by his progress. The fact that Bleier started his 22 yo season in Hickory and remained in High A suggests that the team has concerns about his ability to compete at the upper levels.

Where would Craig Gentry (age 25; .303/.378/.418 with 49 SB's) rank in the position players? Would his basestealing and defense in an important position (CF) have enough bearing to overcome the power deficiency? Is his current Major League cup of coffee just a "thank you" for all of his prior service, or is there any trade value here?

t ball - The reason that I didn't include groundball rates is primarily historical. I started tracking minor league player stats last year before I fully appreciated the significance of groundball rates. Because it is daily and includes player ages, I chose to use Baseball Reference to build my stats database. Unfortunately, Baseball Reference does not provide batted ball information, so GB/FB ratios are not a part of the database and not something that I can easily incorporate into a formula.

I will probably switch to Baseball America's minor league player database next year so that I can incorporate GB/FB.

Regarding the impact of Hickory's defense on the performances of the team's pitchers, I have been considering ways to account for how errors affect a pitcher's WHIP, walk-rates, and strikeout rates. Based on radio broadcasts and the games that I saw, it seems that the defenses for most of teh Rangers' minor league teams were bad and that they likely contributed to higher walk and hit rates per 9 innings for many of the team's pitchers.

David: What do you make of Miquel de los Santos? What is the talent level of the DSL comparable to?

Remarks52 - Craig Gentry's 2009 performance ranked 41st among Rangers minor leaguers with an Adjusted OPS of 102. His age relative to league and 23% extra base hit rate helped rank him as a slightly above average minor league player. I do not include steals or defensive ability among teh metrics that I consider, so I under-estimate the value of someone like Gentry.

Rockwall - Jeff Sackmann recently did an article discussing players in the Dominican Summer League at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/dissecting-the-dsl/. In a nutshell, the article reveals that average age of DSL players in 2009 was 18.4 and that the talent level is somewhere between high school and junior college in the United States.

Regarding de los Santos, his high strikeout rate in three professional seasons leave little doubt that he has outstanding stuff. Unfortunately, his control has been so bad that he will likely have a hard time as he moves up through the system. Worth noting in regard to his 2009 numbers is that his astronomical strikeout rate came against players who were typically 3-4 years younger than him.

You know what's great about David's posts? His replies in the comments section are like bonus posts, with great details, clarifications, expansions of points made. That comment above comparing and explaining the differences between Bleier, Hunter, and Ballard is gold. I like Bleier, but as you say, he's going to need to be absolutely exceptional at ground balls and control in the upper levels given his lack of stuff.

"While others are watching for Wilmer Font and Michael Main to break through in 2010, these are the four guys that I will be keeping close tabs on."

David, while I agree that Perez and Ross are, perhaps, the two most interesting pitching prospects in the organization, and the other two aren't shabby either, don't you think this comment is a bit unfair to Michael Main? Perhaps if you had mentioned Wieland or Beavan instead of Main, it would ring truer. I mean, Main essentially lost the season to an illness that should not impact his career in 2010 and beyond, right? I think we should all expect Michael Main to pick up where he left off until we see otherwise next spring.

You're too kind, t ball.

ScoobyDude - I used Main and Font because I think that after Perez, they will be the two most hyped pitching prospects in the Rangers' system entering 2010. Along with many of you, I am certainly anxious to see what Main and Font are able to do next year, though I am concerned about the flyball tendencies of both and the control problems of Font. Based on their statistical profiles, I think it is likely that Ross and perhaps Escobar and Tullis could surpass both Font and Main next year as prospects.

David, interesting column. Andrew Doyle ranked ahead of Evan Reed and Ryan Falcon. So what am I missing? Seems the Blaze gets so little attention considering they have no radio broadcast and probably one of the five worst venues in the country. Where do Reed and Falcon rank on the relievers list.

David,

Not to challenge your superior knowledge, but how do we know Main has flyball tendencies if he hasn't pitched healthy in 2 years? Did he have fly ball tendencies in his terriffic 2007 summer run? Or is this based on his '08 work? How would his '09 work since coming off the injury rate? Are you completely discounting his spring '09 work when he was ill? Should we? It's hard to tell. I agree that Ross will move quickly up the charts, and Font worries me. But I think Main deserves more benefit-of-the-doubt than that. Still, I see your point.

BTW, any news on the Hurley rehab?

Matt - Neither Reed nor Falcon, with scores of 112 and 109, ranked among teh Top 20 relief prospects in the Rangers system.

ScoobyDude - Main's career GB/FB is 0.96. His 2007 season was his best for GB/FB (1.15), though it was in only 27 innings. In 2008, his ratio dropped to 0.86 and in 2009 it improved to 0.96. By most accounts, Main has the stuff to induce groundballs. Presumably, improved command wold allow him to improve his groundball rate.

Jon Daniels indicated recently that they expect Hurley to be ready topitch by Spring Training next year.

suprised M. Gomez didn't make list. He seems to be on of better power hitting prospects for Rangers and is cleanup hitter for only team to make playoffs

Sean - Gomez' league-adjusted OPS was a very respectable 115, however he got dinged for being more than a year older than the average Cal League player, for repeating a level, and for being a 1B/DH. His overall number was 96.

I love Moreland as a prospect, but because of the log jam at right field and 1st base in this organization I'm afraid he's going to end up as trade bait. That will be a sad day for me, because all signs seem to indicate he'll be an above average major league hitter with good command of the strike zone.

Hey David........ I can't believe nobody has asked this yet, but how does the new pitcher D-Gut we got from the Royals rate? Did he even play enough to have his stat's mean anything? And if not, what if you used last years or career stat's for him? Thanks again for all your hard work!

jmhard - The Rangers don't have to add MOreland to their 40 man roster until after the 2010 season, The team then has three years worth of options that will allow them to keep him in the organization through the 2013 season. Based on his minor league production, it appears that he he will be ready to contribute in the big leagues before 2013, but the club shouldn't feel pressed to trade him.

In my opinion, the emergence of Moreland increases the likelhood that the Rangers will trade MaxRam or perhaps even Chris Davis. I am certainly not advocating either move, but I would ve less upset about it knowing that it would likely create an opportunity for Moreland.

Snowcourt - Gutierrez tossed only 32 innings in 2009 and his appearances were split roughly between the bullpen and starting rotation, so his 2009 stat line is not a particularly reliable measure of his performance. With that said, his overall score for the 8 games that he pitched in High A in 2009 is 138.

I agree they won't be forced to trade Moreland, but because of the depth they have at his positions I fear they will feel he's more valuable being traded to give them back something in a position of need. Surely other organizations are seeing what he's doing, I'd think his name has already come many times in trade talks. If the Rangers make a push for someone like Greinke I'd think Moreland would be a key piece in that.