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Thursday
Aug202009

Evaluating The Texas Rangers' Class Of 2009

Fresno State right-hander Tanner Scheppers throws a pitch against the University of Minnesota on June 3rd, 2007 in San Diego.Many organizations fail with the "build from within" strategy that the Rangers adopted in 2007 due to an inability to continually add and develop talented young players who can supplement and replace the veterans on the major league team. Thanks to several nifty trades, three strong drafts, and a few very good signings from Latin America, the Rangers are set up for a nice run over the next five-plus years. But as the Indians organization can tell you, a talented young team can quickly get off the tracks if the minor league system is not continually re-stocked with players who can fill the gaps that invariably happen on the major league roster.

The Rule 4 draft and international free agency are the lifeblood of teams that rely upon strong farm systems to support a perennial contender. The Rangers' inability to sign their top draft pick in 2009 will definitely affect the near-term standing of the team's farm system. However, the compensatory first-round pick in the 2010 draft and decent, though not overwhelming, draft and international free agent classes in 2009 should lessen the sting.

Presented below are the six members of the Texas Rangers' Class of '09 who are most likely to contribute to the long-term health of the organization:

No. 1: RHP Tanner Scheppers | DoB: 01/17/87 (22 y.o.) | 6' 4", 200 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 1st Round (Unsigned)

While technically he's not yet a member of the Rangers, it seems to be only a matter of time before Scheppers signs on the dotted line and becomes the second most interesting minor league pitcher in the Rangers system behind Martin Perez.

What To Like: Baseball America proclaimed that Scheppers had the second-best arm in the 2009 amateur draft behind Stephen Strasburg and suggested that he will be a member of the publication's 2010 Top 100 Prospects list even if he doesn't pitch an inning of minor league ball in 2009. With a mid-90s fastball that rates as a plus pitch and a curveball with plus potential, Scheppers is well on his way to having the two plus pitches that Baseball America expects of a No. 1 pitcher.

What To Watch: Health will be the most important thing to track for Scheppers in 2010. After that, keep an eye on Scheppers' walk totals, as command and control appear to be his current weaknesses. He walked nearly four hitters per nine innings in college, including 4.3 BB/9 as a junior.

Where He'll Start 2010: There are two wild cards at play with Scheppers: (1) he will begin 2010 as a 23-year-old, so he will be old for any level below AA-ball, and (2) the Rangers might want to limit the number of innings he pitches in 2010. If Scheppers signs within the next couple of months and has a productive off-season, he could begin 2010 in the Double-A Frisco rotation. Anything less than ideal conditions will likely have him in extended spring training before allowing him to debut in High A.

No. 2: SS Jurickson Profar | DoB: Undisclosed (16 y.o.) | 5' 11", 165 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency, 2009 ($1.55 million)

Baseball America rated the switch-hitting shortstop from Curacao as the 15th-best prospect in Latin America this year. Of course, the publication's rating was primarily based on Profar's pitching ability.

What To Like: Anyone who can play shortstop on these fields either has great hands or a steel jaw. General manager Jon Daniels was apparently effusive when discussing Profar at Newberg Night. Profar's $1.55 million signing bonus is the most that the Rangers have ever given to an international free agent. And just in case that is not enough, the switch-hitter apparently jacked balls from both sides of the plate during batting practice at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

What To Watch: Profar looks like a kid who hits the ball hard. The DSL is not particularly hitter-friendly, but I'll be looking for good slugging numbers combined with a good batting average as likely indicators of future success.

Where He'll Start 2010: The Rangers typically start their young, Latin American position prospects in the Dominican Summer League. Profar should begin the season on one of the Rangers' two DSL teams and have the promise of a trip to Arizona if he performs well.

No. 3: SS Luis Sardinas | DoB: Undisclosed (16 y.o) | 6' 0", 150 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency, 2009 ($1.5 million)

Baseball America rated the Venezuelan as the sixth-best prospect in Latin America in 2009, citing his outstanding hands and foot speed.

What To Like: The Rangers reportedly gave Sardinas a $1.5 million signing bonus, which is the second most that they've given any prospect from Latin America. Given his apparent tools and the Rangers' success with Venezuelan prospects, look for Sardinas to begin showing up in prospect chats soon after he makes his stateside debut.

What To Watch: As with many very young middle infield prospects, Sardinas will need to prove that he can hit enough to develop into a major leaguer. A strikeout rate in the 10-15 percent range and a walk rate above five percent will be a good place to start.

Where He'll Start 2010: As noted with Profar, the Rangers typically start their young, Latin American position prospect in the Dominican Summer League. Sardinas should begin the year on the DSL team that doesn't have Profar on the roster. Hopefully, a friendly rivalry will develop between the two young prospects.

No. 4: LHP Robbie Erlin | DoB: 10/08/90 | 5' 11", 175 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 3rd Round ($425,000)

I admit that my ranking of Erlin is based almost entirely upon the current success of Martin Perez and Robbie Ross. The Rangers appear to be exploiting an overlooked resource (short, left-handed starting pitchers) and Erlin seems to be the guy they targeted in the 2009 draft. Baseball America rated Erlin as a fourth- or fifth-round pick, though the publication indicated that several scouts had said, "If he were two inches taller, you'd be talking about him as a first-rounder."

What To Like: Erlin's fastball velocity is nothing to write home about (88-91 mph), but he apparently has good command to both sides of the plate. Erlin's best pitch is his curveball, which rates as above average. PG Crosschecker suggests that Erlin's change-up has plus potential.

What To Watch: Erlin apparently has very good command. Key metrics that will suggest that he might be a third-round steal will be fastball velocity and strikeout rate. If his first inning of work in the Arizona Rookie League is any indication (1 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K), Erlin might just be a first-round talent trapped in a 5' 11" package.

Where He'll Start 2010: Erlin's scouting profile suggests that he has polish similar to the Rangers' fourth-round pick in 2008, Joe Wieland, so don't be surprised to see him challenged with a Low-A Hickory assignment after beginning the 2010 season in extended spring training.

No. 5: RHP Braden Tullis | DoB: 01/23/90 (19 y.o) | 6' 2", 200 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 8th Round ($90,000)

Tullis was rated the 78th-best right-handed pitching prospect in the 2009 draft by Baseball America, but the two Jasons (Parks and Cole) rate the eighth-round pick as the biggest steal in the Rangers' 2009 draft class. Given his early results at short-season Spokane, the smart money is with the two Jasons.

What To Like: Before the draft, PG Crosschecker indicated that Tullis has command of three pitches (88-91 mph two-seamer, a curveball and a change-up) and suggested that his change-up could develop into a plus pitch. Several weeks ago, Parks raved about Tullis' change-up, though he didn't go so far as to pull out the Bugs Bunny comp. In 53 innings in Spokane, Tullis' peripherals have been uniformly excellent for a sinkerball pitcher (8.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.27 GB/FB) and he is currently fifth in the Northwest League with a 2.89 ERA.

What To Watch: Jason Parks and PG Crosschecker both suggest that Tullis could add velocity to his fastball as he learns to better use what is described as a very strong arm. If his fastball ticks up a notch or two and his change-up continues to develop, look for Tullis' strikeout and ground ball rates to remain very strong as he tackles at least one A-ball league in 2010.

Where He'll Start 2010: Tullis turns 20 in January and could conceivably begin the season in High A as one of the younger pitchers in the California League (if the Rangers remain there). Due to the likely logjam in the High A rotation that will result from graduations from Low-A Hickory, it appears likely that Tullis will begin 2010 in the South Atlantic League and that he will be among the first pitchers to graduate to High A.

No. 6; RHP Andrew Doyle | DoB: 11/12/87 (21 y.o.) | 6' 3", 210 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 4th Round ($234,000)

Ranked by Baseball America as the 87th-best prospect in the 2009 amateur draft, the Rangers selected Doyle with their fourth-round pick (No. 124 overall). Doyle's repertoire includes a low-90s four-seamer, an 89-91 mph two-seamer, a slider, and a change-up. None of the pitches are of the swing-and-miss variety as witnessed by his 6.3 K/9 in college, though it is worth noting that he has struck out 24 hitters in just 18 innings pitching out of the short-season Spokane bullpen.

What To Like: Doyle walked just over two hitters per nine innings as a college junior. He fits the Tommy Hunter/Blake Beavan/Doug Mathis mold and has the potential to develop into a dependable, though not overwhelming rotation horse or a solid long reliever. If he pitches in Arlington, he will likely do so by displaying good command of a variety of pitches.

What To Watch: Even the most effective pitch-to-contact pitchers have to strike out a reasonable number of hitters to be effective in the major leagues. For Doyle, striking out six-plus hitters per nine innings while maintaining excellent walk and ground ball rates in High A and above will indicate that his development is on track.

Where He'll Start 2010: Given his age and the valuable minor league experience that he's getting in 2009, look for Doyle to be the veteran of a very young starting rotation in High A (Wilmer Font, Wilfredo Boscan, Joe Wieland, Carlos Pimental, Jake Brigham, and Robbie Ross).

Reader Comments (9)

To be placed in the "For What It Is Worth" column:
Andrew Doyle's work out of the Spokane Indians bullpen has been superior to what Tommy Hunter did as a new signee in 2007. In 18 innings, Doyle has a 12 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.23 GB/FB, and 2.00 ERA. In 17.2 innings, Hunter had 6.6 K/9, 0.5 BB/9, 1.59 GB/FB, and 2.55 ERA.

August 20, 2009 at 5:47 AM | Registered CommenterDavid

And in the "I Couldn't Find a Place to Put It" column:

Recent Rangers draftees who have contributed to the success of the organization (or might yet) -
2003 - Danks (1st round), Kinsler (17), Feldman (30)
2004 - Diamond (1), Hurley (1S), Boggs (4), Metcalf (10), Phillips (23)
2005 - Mayberry (1), Whittleman (2), Teagarden (3), Kirkman (5), Duran (6), Nevarez (10), Mathis (13)
2006 - Kiker (1), Lemon (4), Davis (5), Brigham (6), Gentry (10), Velazquez (19)
2007 - Beavan (1), Main (1), Borbon (1S), Ramirez (1S), Hunter (1S), T. Smith (7), Moreland (17)
2008 - Smoak (1), Ross (2), Murphy (3), Wieland (4), Bleier (6), Thompson (7), Bianucci (7)

As noted in the article, the 2009 draft appears to have 4 pretty solid picks. In addition, two college bats (Mendonca and Difazio), two high school pitchers (McBride and Strong), and two high school outfielders (Sierra and Lane) profile as potential breakouts.

August 20, 2009 at 6:05 AM | Registered CommenterDavid

"Tullis" and "steal" are becoming synonymous. A lot of wild cards in your top rankings, Scheppers and the two SS, anything could happen, talented as they are. Not signing Purke is very disappointing, but given the state of the organization, not debilitating.

I hope the ownership situation is resolved as quickly as possible, this is getting ridiculous. I don't want to see the team's ability to plug holes and finish a ML roster jeopardized this offseason, but right now it looks like that will almost certainly be the way it is. Bargain hunting will be the name of the game.

August 20, 2009 at 7:44 AM | Unregistered Commentert ball

Wasn't Scheppers about to do some bp sessions for asian teams?, I really hope they get him, but somehow I just feel it won't be possible....

August 20, 2009 at 12:38 PM | Unregistered CommenterMELV85

http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/story/1545407.html

did you guys read about this.

August 20, 2009 at 2:28 PM | Unregistered CommenterJack

Jack -- actually finishing up an all-encompassing post right now touching on Galloway's assertions.

August 20, 2009 at 2:44 PM | Registered CommenterJoey Matschulat

I know you picked six David but three more that are right there and will hopefully make everyone forget Purke are McBride, Strong, and Blackwell. Three HS arms that each got 300k+. Those are the three I'll be focusing on besides Bell and the others you mentioned the most. Should one of them become a legit major leaguer then I won't feel so bad about this draft class.

August 20, 2009 at 4:15 PM | Unregistered CommenterHull Fan

t ball - I agree that financial stability would do wonders for the Rangers since it would help clarify the team's near-term strategy. It is worth noting, however, that the Rangers could field a very interesting team in 2010 with a payroll under $50M.

Position players - Young, Andrus, Kinsler, Davis, Hamilton, Cruz, Borbon, Saltalamacchia
Bench players - Teagarden, Murphy, Boggs, MaxRam, one of Vizquel, Arias, or German
Starting rotation - Milllwood, Holland, Feldman, Hunter, Feliz (or McCarthy or Harrison)
Bullpen - Francisco, Wilson, O'Day, Moscoso, Nippert, two of Feliz, McCarthy, or Harrison

The AAA depth would be a little thin but Kiker, Poveda, and Hurley (hopefully) would be available for the starting rotation or bullpen.
Mathis, Madrigal, Strop, and Phillips/Young/Kirkman could supplement the bullpen.
Moreland, Lemon, Smith, and Whittleman could fill in for the position players.

MELV85 - I have to believe that the Scheppers' talk about Japan was simply an attempt to jump start negotiations with the Rangers. Of course, I also thought that the team was going to sign Purke.

Hull Fan - I tried to come up with a list of ten players in the Rangers' Class of '09 that excited me and discovered that I could only come up with six. The pitchers that you list certainly have potential, but I just have a hard time getting excited about pitchers whose fastballs sit in the mid- to upper 80's.

August 21, 2009 at 7:55 AM | Unregistered Commenterdavid

David - When compiling your Under $50M list, don't forget about Justin Smoak. I would think he'll find his way to Arlington next year.

August 21, 2009 at 1:44 PM | Unregistered Commenterjmhard

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