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Thursday
09Jul2009

Trade Rumblings: Halladay Buzz Grows As Rangers Ride Andruw

Andruw Jones belts his third home run of the game against Anaheim on Wednesday, July 9th.Question: If the definition of insanity is truly doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, then what does that say about the mental integrity of homer-weary Angels right-handers Ervin Santana and Rich Thompson, who combined to feed Andruw Jones high fastballs not once, not twice, but thrice during Wednesday evening's series finale in Anaheim?

Yes, that would be the same Andruw Jones who presently ranks as one of the very best fastball hitters in the majors this season on a rate basis, producing 2.29 runs above average per 100 fastballs thus far in 2009 -- his best mark since his penultimate campaign in a Braves uniform some three years ago, during which he collected a justifiable Gold Glove trophy and clobbered National League pitching to the tune of .262/.363/.531 in 156 games.

If his inexplicable loss of aptitude in being able to turn around a major league-quality fastball played a significant role in his precipitous offensive decline in the time that has since passed, then all indications currently point towards Andruw having found the panacea at some indeterminate point over the last six months -- and in no way could he have better exemplified that than by taking those three aforementioned fastballs, each of which sat around 93-94 mph according to Angel Stadium's Pitch f/x camera setup, and hitting them in such a way that his only responsibility henceforth was the slow jog:

[Direct link available here.]

While none of that is to say that Andruw can necessarily continue banging 20-plus percent of his fly balls over the fence or sustain one of the best seasonal walks-to-strikeouts ratios (0.62) of his major league career, it's certainly time to publicly admit to myself that he hasn't been the disaster I had once feared he might be. Rather, he's a solid-average outfielder whose sheltering from blatant lineup over-exposure has likely worked to his benefit, who is collecting a relative pittance from the Rangers and who has not really put the playing time squeeze on David Murphy or Nelson Cruz -- or at least not to a degree where it warrants major criticism. Yet.

But whatever minor quantity of trade value Jones has managed to accumulate isn't likely to come into play if the Rangers retain their first-place standing in the AL West too terribly much longer, and it certainly isn't going to come into play in the increasingly unusual case of Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay, who has evolved into prime fodder for those news-starved sports media sensationalists armed with local and/or national platforms through which they can disseminate their messages.

Allegedly cash-strapped club owner Tom Hicks asserted before Wednesday evening's game that he would contemplate green-lighting any prospective deadline deal that would recoup a front-line player, albeit doing so while simultaneously including the qualifier that the Rangers would only consider pursuing such a deal if it helped them become a "contending team over each of the next five years." On the surface, this final qualifier would appear to be a huge impediment to the completion of any deal for Halladay -- barring a long-term contract extension, of course, which definitely wouldn't be in the cards so long as the incumbent ownership regime was still intact, and a new ownership group may not be terribly inclined to add the burden of millions upon millions of dollars of future payroll obligations so soon after the acquisition of majority ownership.

And what of this sudden Halladay-n'-Rangers connection, anyway? FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal was, not surprisingly, the first notable journalist to unite the pair of names in recent days, albeit in a rather speculative and roundabout fashion (he summarily dismissed Texas as a viable candidate in the Halladay sweepstakes on the basis of Hicks Sports Group's financial woes), and the New York Post's Joel Sherman further fanned the flames on Wednesday, quoting baseball executives who appear to express skepticism over the Rangers' cash-flow issues on the basis of Texas investing heavily in the 2009 amateur draft and international free agency.

[Of course, if one subscribes to the notion that these talent acquisition budgets were set well in advance, then I'm not really sure how aggressive spending at the ground floor reflects a capability to expand the major league payroll. That's quite the jump in logic.]

As I'm sure you've already been made cognizant of, Halladay will command approximately $4.75 million through the final two months of the 2009 regular season and then bank an additional $15.75 million in 2010, which may or may not end up being a legitimately prohibitive sum -- forecasting the composition and financial breakdown of the 40-man roster six months from now is a nigh-impossible task, particularly when you consider that this season's Opening Day payroll of $68,178,798 may not be sustainable going forward; case in point, a more cost-conscious ownership group looking to pare debt from the books might well elect to sell off arbitration-eligible talent to accommodate Halladay's salary, which is obviously bad from a competitive standpoint.

As we noted yesterday, also consider that Halladay would almost certainly demand cash enticements to waive his full no-trade clause (further ballooning the total cost of his acquisition), and even then there appears to be this supposition floating around that incentives alone would impel Halladay to abandon his first and only organization. It's simply not that easy. For every Rangers All-Star representative who will approach Halladay with the idea of convincing him to come to Texas if circumstances allow for it, there will be three more All-Star teammates or opponents of Halladay's pitching a similar line in his direction next week.

And then you get into the entire issue of what Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi would demand in exchange for Halladay's services, which is certain to be a Mark Teixeira-caliber bounty of young talent; according to one anonymous source quoted by MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, Toronto's asking price "would start" with left-hander Derek Holland and minor league first baseman Justin Smoak, which sounds like a reasonable foundation for a deal that would likely require the addition of catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden and perhaps a mid-range prospect in the vein of outfielder Engel Beltre, right-handers Wilmer Font and Omar Poveda or southpaw Kasey Kiker.

That might actually be talent overkill in terms of actually sealing a deal, but my suspicion is that it's not miles astray from what will probably be required; ace-caliber pitchers of Halladay's stuff, pedigree and results are going to fetch inordinate quantities of talent. That's a given. Tossing about the names of third- or fourth-tier prospects such as Marcus Lemon and Warner Madrigal as though their impact as a pot-sweetener would be significant is just absurd, as well as an exercise in futility. Seven-win players are precious commodities.

For the second consecutive morning, I find myself back where I started with the Halladay notion -- back at square one. It's a certainty that the Rangers are going to perform their due diligence and attain a firmer grasp as far as what Halladay will cost, but this is, in my mind, the longest of long shots. That reality alone won't prevent me from talking about this story as it further develops over the next three weeks (during which Texas will presumably continue to be linked with Toronto), but anybody harboring even the slightest inkling of expectation is setting themselves up for disappointment.

Injury Updates: Right-hander Vicente Padilla (6 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) was diagnosed with a bruised right palm after his ill-advised attempt at barehanding a sharp one-hopper with nobody out in the top of the seventh inning on Wednesday evening, but due to the timing of the All-Star break is not expected to miss any starts ... Right-hander Brandon McCarthy (stress fracture, right scapula) is currently throwing from 60 feet without pain and is scheduled to embark upon a long-toss program next week.

Left-hander Matt Harrison (left shoulder inflammation) is currently throwing in Surprise, Arizona and is scheduled to throw in the bullpen in Seattle on Saturday; a visit to the neurologist on Monday revealed no existing nerve damage ... Triple-A Oklahoma City catcher Max Ramirez (left wrist tendinitis) presently resides on the minor league disabled list and is rehabbing his injury in Surprise; an MRI exam determined surgical repair was not necessary.

Quick Hits: Texas has not yet named a starter for the first-half finale in Seattle, with the possibility existing that manager Ron Washington will simply throw every available pitcher that he's got at the Mariners ... Second baseman Ian Kinsler received a much-needed evening of rest on Wednesday; utility infielder Omar Vizquel, who had reportedly been dealing with shoulder soreness, went 1-for-4 with a walk in his stead.

As reported previously, outfielder Josh Hamilton will not participate in next week's All-Star Home Run Derby ... Major League Baseball investigators are slated to conduct a phone interview with outfielder Marlon Byrd on Thursday regarding his reported usage of Victor Conte-supplied nutritional supplements ... Triple-A Oklahoma City first baseman Nate Gold has been released ... Jim Reeves of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram pays homage to the greatness of venerated Rangers radio broadcaster Eric Nadel, who is expected to resume his broadcasting duties after the All-Star break.

Reader Comments (13)

Although it is an extreme long-shot and potentially an impossibility, I will be glad when Halladay is shipped off to another team. Trading away a package comparable to Holland, Smoak, Salty + just holds too much risk for a team that isn't necessarily built to win now.

July 9, 2009 at 9:56 AM | Unregistered Commenterutb

Precipitous? Aptitude? Panacea? Dictionary...

If BMac is throwing again, when does this 'reconstruction' of this delivery begin? Is if reasonable to beleive he'll be back this year? Healthy? Effective? Or are those two different ideas in McCarthy's case?

July 9, 2009 at 10:28 AM | Unregistered CommenterJesse

1st of all I think the whole Halladay talk is pointless because he already said he doesn't want to come to Texas... something about "bad memories", which doesn't sound like the Roy Halladay I know (or how I perceive him rather).
It is fun to discuss however and I think I would pull the trigger on a Smoak/Salty/Holland/Kiker deal in a heart beat. Or maybe Feliz/Davis/Teagarden/Perez/Beavan... I would pull the trigger on that deal too.
I would think that if JD put a similiar package together, coupled with a nice 5yr/$100M extension, Halladay would be in a Ranger uniform and the Rangers would have their 1st TRUE ace in franchise history.
Back to reality; this won't get done for many reasons and as long as Halladay doesn't end up in our division (Angels), I'm ok with that... I wouldn't want the financial burden or the loss of young, affordable talent.... which is a premium right now.

Onm a seperate note - I'm so proud of the Rangers over the last 2 weeks. They have played good ball; good/solid pitching, good defense, and the O seems to have turned the corner.
I'm frankly surprised they are still in the hunt. I really felt they were all set to fade to black (when they dropped to 6 games over .500)... maybe, just maybe, this team is FOR REAL!!!
I'm scared to death at the thought of JD making a bonehead trade just for the sake of trading... I really think he's learned his lesson but I'm still worried. I'd rather we stay the course and not make any moves and not make the playoffs, than trade away nice prospects for a bit player.

My rant is over... but I haven't posted in weeks, so I'm allowed some freedom here, right?

July 9, 2009 at 10:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

One last question/point: what if the Blue Jays lumped in Vernon Wells to any Halladay deal? I know he's making $20m + per yr but he's not producing and I bet Riccardi would dump him for next to nothing. So how about the Rangers offer a deal similiar to what you suggested, along with Borbon AND Gholson... and the Rangers get back Wells and Halladay?
Way too much money, i know! But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that is something the Blue Jays are looking for in any Halladay deal. They would LOVE to get Wells off the books!

July 9, 2009 at 10:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

Smoak, Salty, Holland, and Kiker for Halladay? You bet the Jays would take that!

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

Even if it came with at 5 year extension - NO.

Sign Sheets to a 3 year FA contract and you get a pitcher of close to the same caliber and you get to keep Smoak, Salty, Holland and Kiker.

I really think JD is smarter than that.

As it has been said numerous times by a variety of people around here - there will be a time to pull the trigger on a risky move that will send some of those prospects packing for some legit major league talent - but now is certainly not the time for that. There are dozens of reasons why, but the first and foremost reason is that when guys are in A or AA, you really have no idea what you have there.

July 9, 2009 at 11:08 AM | Unregistered CommenterJDolla$

>>>>>
Halladay would be in a Ranger uniform and the Rangers would have their 1st TRUE ace in franchise history.
<<<<<

If you're saying Nolan Ryan wasn't a true ace, I just don't know what to tell you.

July 9, 2009 at 11:49 AM | Unregistered Commenterjmhard

I feel like this Ben Sheets hope is extremely misguided. We just should put all of our hopes on signing a guy who's coming off major surgery? If we get a deal on him, sure, sign him in a heartbeat. But don't we think 3/30m could be better used elsewhere? I was right there for the Ben Sheets fervor - but, alot of Brewer fans were saying "good riddance" to his work ethic and injury history. It just give me cause for pause, that's all.

July 9, 2009 at 12:00 PM | Unregistered CommenterJesse

If you read/listen carefully, JP Ricciardi has made it clear that 2 prospects plus "sweetners" won't get a deal done. The Jays are expecting 3 almost ready prospects plus, as required, other position fillers. Also, given the Jay's pitching depth going into 2010, their focus is on hitters, not pitchers. So, think in terms of Smoak/Davis, Salty/Teagarden, Elvis and maybe Murphy. And if Elvis is "untouchable," then maybe a Borbon-type and others, perhaps including a pitching prospect like Holland/Hunter/Feliz. That looks like a lot, but it reflects the Jay's bargaining position. Halladay is not demanding a trade (in fact, quite the contrary), there is no financial incentive to trade (yes, $15 MM/yr is a bargain for a player worth 6-7 wins per year), nor is there any urgency to trade since the Doc is signed through 2010. Finally, he is the face of the franchise in Toronto, so from a marketing perspective, it really will have to be an overwhelmingly favorable package ito placate the fan base.

July 9, 2009 at 1:23 PM | Unregistered Commenterbirdwatcher

Considering that Jennings had the same surgery, there is a good chance that Sheets will recover & be a good pitcher again. If Texas can get him on a 3/30 (less if he doesn't meet incentives), that'll be a major steal for his talent, experience & age.

I agree with birdwatcher's assessment above - Halladay would surely cost Smoak, Teagarden, Holland, and probably Borbon = that would essentially empty out the farm system of all its top-tier ml-ready talent, which IMAO is about the most ridiculously stupid move this franchise could do right now. Especially in this economy - but anyway in general - the reason why the Rangers are universally heralded as a franchise on the brink of greatness is that they have a host of young talented players who are/will be controllable and CHEAP. Guys like Holland and Feliz don't come along every year - you don't trade them, especially at this point in their careers.

Two words: Scott Kazmir.

If I'm JD, not only is Elvis off-limits, but same goes for Smoak, Holland, and Feliz. You don't trade those guys - you let them be Rangers and get the most out of your investment & development. I believe that JD has learned from his early mistakes and won't do the same thing again.

July 9, 2009 at 1:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterJDolla$

jmhard - I thought of Nolan when I made that comment about Halladay being the 1st true ace... but if I remember correctly Nolan was like 42 or 43 when he signed here and was the number 2 or 3 in the rotation (behind the likes of Kevin Brown, Jose Cruz, Bobby Witt, etc...)... I could be wrong about that though...
I love Nolan... and if we had Nolan when he was 32 instead of 42, I wouldn't have said that about Halladay.
But if you look at Halladay's age and stats, he's a Nolan starter kit... capable of pitching effectively for another 10 years. That, in my opinion, would qualify him as the Rangers first "true ace".

July 9, 2009 at 2:36 PM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

We need to target the Giants for a potential trade. They are thick with pitching and thin on offense. They are leading the wild card in the NL and surely would deal some of their pitching for the right bat.
Would you trade Smoak or Davis for Cain straight up? What about trading someone like Moreland and Gholson for Sanchez? Sanchez is having a down year and we wouldn't be giving up anything too significant.
Maybe the Giants would take Blalock (we'd have to pay a portion of his 09 salary) for Sanchez?

Not sure what pieces it would take but if I were JD I would defintely have San Fran on speed dial.

July 9, 2009 at 2:41 PM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

SF is a good thought, Pablo - but I don't think they're moving Cain in the midst of a real pennant race. I do think Sanchez could be had, but he'd probably cost more than Blalock. And Blalock's problem is that he's really suited for the AL, since he probably can't play 3B anymore. You also have to wonder about Chris Davis' value right now - isn't it at an all-time low? So maybe it would be more prudent to hang onto him for another go at it.

This team has decent pitching right now - at least what appears to be good enough to get them into September in the hunt for the AL West. So if you add someone, it should be someone who can help now & in the future. Seems like Sanchez might be an okay addition - especially if he didn't cost too much - but he's not the frontline ace that the team is looking for to give them a shot against NY or Bos.

I think all this speculation is probably pointless, anyway, as the team probably isn't going to do anything crazy while Hicks is still in charge. And I've heard that the timetable for a sell is more likely to be after the World Series.

If Feliz and Holland both join the bullpen for the 2nd half - that takes care of that problem. And if Hunter can keep doing what he's been doing - along with a return by Harrison - they have more than enough starters to keep them competitive.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Texas do nothing at the trade deadline.

July 9, 2009 at 2:49 PM | Unregistered CommenterJDolla$

We need more than a little buzz to get us deep in to the playoffs.

July 22, 2009 at 10:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterDavid

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