Rangers Prospect Analysis: Blake Beavan Vs. Tommy Hunter
Tommy Hunter hurls a first-inning pitch against the Rays on Friday, July 3rd.Two of the Rangers' biggest right-handed pitching prospects, Blake Beavan (6' 7", 250 lb.) and Tommy Hunter (6' 3", 255 lb.), were selected in the first round of the 2007 amateur draft.
Beavan, the 17th overall pick, spent the summer negotiating a contract and failed to appear in a professional game until the 2008 season. Hunter, the 54th overall pick, signed quickly and appeared in 10 Northwest League games out of the short-season Spokane bullpen during the 2007 season. Both players have been among the most successful 2007 draftees, with Hunter being one of only four first-round pitchers to start a major league game and Beavan being one of only six high school pitchers to have advanced to AA-ball.
In his one-plus years in the Rangers' system, Beavan has competed in three different leagues. In 2008, Beavan rode new pitching mechanics and a two-seam fastball to a very successful debut season in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League (see table below). In 2009, Beavan has augmented his two-seamer with a healthy dose of four-seam fastballs, change-ups, and sliders and posted very solid numbers in the hitter-friendly California and Texas Leagues. Beavan's 2009 numbers are much more impressive when you consider that he has been pitching primarily to hitters who are 2-5 years older than him:
| Blake Beavan Minor League Statistics |
|||||||||||
| Year |
Level |
Games |
IP |
IP/S |
ERA |
WHIP |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
BAA |
GO/FO |
| 2008 |
A |
23 |
125 |
5.1 |
2.37 |
1.03 |
1.4 |
5.2 |
0.9 |
.231 |
1.24 |
| 2009 |
A+ |
15 |
77 |
5.1 |
4.30 |
1.24 |
1.6 |
6.3 |
0.7 |
.260 |
1.54 |
| 2009 |
AA |
3 |
17 |
5.2 |
6.48 |
1.50 |
2.0 |
6.5 |
0.0 |
.293 |
1.15 |
| Career |
- - - |
41 |
219 |
5.1 |
3.36 |
1.14 |
1.7 |
5.8 |
0.8 |
.247 |
1.29 |
In approximately two years in the Rangers' system, Hunter has pitched at five different levels. With the exception of his five major league starts, Hunter's stats have been essentially the same at every level. Hunter began his professional career with a four-seam fastball and a curveball that he threw at two speeds. During the off-season before 2009, Hunter added a two-seam fastball and a change-up to his repertoire. Based upon the Pitch f/x data from his two major league starts this year, Hunter's favored pitch is his two-seam fastball with an occasional four-seamer. As was the case last year, approximately 30 percent of his pitches are the two variants of his curveball. Interestingly, he is throwing his recently added change-up approximately 20 percent of the time. It is unclear how much the two-seam fastball and change-up has contributed to Hunter's improved major league performance in 2009, but it is very obvious that he is a different pitcher now:
| Tommy Hunter Minor/Major League Statistics |
|||||||||||
| Year |
Level |
Games |
IP |
IP/S |
ERA |
WHIP |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
BAA |
GO/FO |
| 2007 |
A (ss) |
10 |
18 |
N/A |
2.55 |
0.91 |
0.5 |
6.6 |
0.0 |
.221 |
- - - |
| 2008 |
A+ |
9 |
59 |
6.2 |
3.55 |
1.20 |
1.2 |
7.6 |
0.9 |
.279 |
1.32 |
| 2008 |
AA |
8 |
53 |
6.2 |
3.78 |
1.30 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
0.9 |
.267 |
1.34 |
| 2008 |
AAA |
8 |
55 |
6.2 |
2.89 |
1.13 |
1.5 |
4.6 |
1.0 |
.255 |
1.21 |
| 2008 |
MLB |
3 |
11 |
3.2 |
16.4 |
2.36 |
2.5 |
7.4 |
3.3 |
.411 | 0.72 |
| 2009 |
AA |
5 |
23 |
6.2 |
4.98 |
1.57 |
1.7 |
6.6 |
0.4 |
.313 |
1.29 |
| 2009 |
AAA |
8 |
49 |
6.0 |
3.83 |
1.40 |
2.9 |
6.4 |
0.9 |
.316 |
1.08 |
| 2009 |
MLB |
3 |
17 |
5.2 |
3.18 |
1.35 |
3.2 |
4.8 |
1.1 |
.258 |
0.78 |
| Career |
Minors |
48 |
257 |
6.1 |
3.57 |
1.21 |
1.7 |
5.8 |
0.8 |
.269 |
1.22 |
| Career |
Majors |
6 |
28 |
4.2 |
8.36 |
1.75 |
2.9 |
5.8 |
1.9 |
.336 |
0.67 |
DAVID'S TAKE
Although Beavan receives a lot more recognition than Hunter, I am increasingly convinced that Hunter and Beavan are essentially the same pitcher. As noted in the stats presented above, both pitchers are hittable (.247 vs. .269 BAA and identical 5.8 K/9 in their careers) and somewhat susceptible to the long ball (0.8 HR/9). They both overcome these weaknesses by limiting walks (1.7 BB/9), line drives (14 percent vs 16 percent), and fly balls to the outfield (22 percent vs. 18 percent). Perhaps their greatest strengths are their durability and consistency (Hunter's 6.1 innings per start is among the best in the minor leagues over the past two years).
Both Hunter and Beavan feature two-seam fastballs that they throw in the high-80s and four-seam fastballs that they throw in the low-90s. Hunter currently has the superior breaking ball and they are both having success with recently developed change-ups. A quick review of current major league starting pitchers reveals that Nick Blackburn, Scott Feldman, Kyle Kendrick, Zach Duke, and Nate Robertson have fastball velocities, secondary offerings, and histories of low strikeout and walk rates that are reminiscent of Hunter and Beavan.
Though Beavan is still quite young and might be able to increase his fastball velocity, strikeout rate and status, it seems to me that Hunter and Beavan are likely to distinguish themselves at the major league level primarily through their ability to take the ball every five days, pile up innings, and keep their teams in games. If the Rangers continue to emphasize defense, then durable, groundball pitchers who limit walks can be extremely valuable.
TRIP'S TAKE
I spoke to Jason Cole about Blake Beavan, and Cole was quick to compare Beavan to Hunter. I was surprised because it was unprompted, and this article was already sitting on my to-do list. The numbers David included certainly back up the comparison, but from a scouting perspective, the two aren't as similar as their numbers.
When Hunter marched through AA-ball in 2008, he was working with a low-90s four-seam fastball, a plus curveball, and a very raw change-up. Entering AA-ball this season, Beavan has been working a decent three-pitch mix including a four-seam fastball around 90 mph, a below-average slider that flashes as above average, and a promising change-up with plus potential.
In the year since his AA-ball debut, Hunter has added a new wrinkle to his game in a two-seam fastball. Its velocity is a 2-4 mph step down from his four-seam fastball, but he gets much better movement on it and commands it just as well. Beavan has actually been told to pocket his two-seam fastball for now, in favor of a four-seam fastball, reportedly in an effort to build back some of his amateur velocity. By next season, Beavan should be throwing both a two-seam fastball and a four-seam fastball with command of both, just like Hunter this year.
Beavan's slider has improved from last season, and in fact, it has so much tilt to it that it sometimes resembles a curveball. It's nowhere near as good as Hunter's curveball, but given its season-to-season improvement, the pitch could take another step forward before all is said and done.
Beavan is still developing his change-up, like Hunter was when he was in AA-ball. Right now, it's a higher-ceiling pitch than his slider, but it is still very raw. In my opinion, it's much better than Hunter's 2008 change-up, though Hunter had better command of his.
This year, Hunter's change-up has taken a huge step forward and has been a successful pitch against major league hitters. With Beavan's impressive command, he should eventually rein in his promising change-up, and when he does, it should be better than Hunter's.
Overall, I don't think the comparison between Hunter and Beavan is unfair, but I do think that Beavan has quite a way to go to be as good as Hunter. In the end, the two pitchers will probably wind up as pretty similar pitchers, each working with excellent command of two fastballs and two solid, if unimpressive, off-speed pitches.
Right now, Hunter has the advantage of being allowed to throw both of his fastballs, and he will probably always have the better breaking ball. Beavan's change-up has the potential to be better than Hunter's, but the two have very similar ceilings.
In a head-to-head match-up, I like Hunter because he's already taken several steps that Beavan has yet to take. Given their reasonably similar ceilings, this puts Hunter way ahead in my book.
[Footnote 6:00 PM - I have *NOT* seen Beavan's 2-seam fastball. It was getting pretty solid reviews last season, and it could be a difference maker for him. If it again becomes his primary pitch, it really breaks the comparison between him and Hunter because they will be different types of pitchers. The fact that Beavan hasn't been throwing what was an important pitch for him last season really makes it hard to handicap his ceiling/potential. I am at a disadvantage in this regard. Please keep this in mind. - Trip]
20 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (20)
Trip, do you put Hunter ahead of Beavan that much even when considering their age difference? I would think that would close the gap a bit in the long run, if not presently.
Incidentally, both tables above had Beavan's name on them.
I've been impressed with Hunter being able to locate his variety of pitches so far. Why hasn't Derek Holland developed his other pitches--is it because he has been able to get minor league hitters out with his fastball?
Good analysis guys. I've been impressed with Hunter this year. It wouldn't surprise me if he forced Harrison to AAA when he comes back or Holland to the bullpen.
Thanks for pointing out the problem with Tommy Hunter's table, t ball. In addition to being mislabeled, it also lacked his career stats. Both mistakes have been corrected.
I've been very impressed with Hunter, as well. His development is emblematic of the strides that the Rangers have made in their minor league system over thepast few years. They appear to have used Hunter's strengths (repeatable delivery, control, and excellent curveball) to create an effective major league starter from what was really a very average prospect. The added sinker provides Hunter with a go-to pitch. His new change-up allows him to keep hitters off-balance. His four-seamer now looks sneaky fast on those rare occasions that he uses it instead of like a very average pitch when he was throwing it 60% of the time last year.
In my opinion, Harrison, Hunter, and Beavan are all extremely similar pitchers. All three are going to have to mix and match 4 or 5 pitches, limit walks, and rely on their defense. Assuming the Rangers continue to emphasize defense, all three pitchers have an opportunity to be productive major league starters.
I like Hunter, but I have always thought of Beavan as more of a "high-end" prospect. As uplifting as this read was regarding Hunter, it was equally disappointing as it pertained to Beavan. I had never thought about Beavan "peaking" as Tommy Hunter Jr and it's a little disheartening to think of him in that light.
utb, I read that more optimistically. Hunter is more than we thought he was, while Beavan is slightly less, and both could be very valuable for the Rangers for years to come.
utb - I agree that in some ways, Beavan's development has been disappointing. The mid-90's fastball and supposedly devastating slider that he displayed in high school certainly suggested that he had the potential to develop into a top of the rotation starter. Unfortunately, his reduced fastball velocity and average strike-out rate leave him with a more realistic ceiling of #3 starter.
That is not to suggest that Beavan has been a disappointment. He is pitching in the Texas League at the age of 20. He has the control of a future major league starter and several years to improve his stuff. Every team in baseball would love to have Blake Beavan in their farm system.
Worth considering is whether Beavan and Hunter are currently more valuable assets than two other 2007 First Round Draft Picks, Michael Main and Neil Ramirez. Main and Ramirez have better stuff and higher ceilings, but they are still toiling in A-ball. One could argue that the higher floors of Beavan and Hunter make them better prospects.
To echo t ball's comment, starting pitchers who can provide their teams 200 innings of 4.50-5.00 ERA baseball are quite valuable. Having two or three such pitchers (Hunter, Harrison, Beavan) who are cheap and under club control for the foreseeable future provides the Rangers with a lot of flexibility when it comes to building their roster.
Apologies for the table errors -- those were my fault all the way. I had to create them from scratch in Squarespace since Word tables don't format particularly well and goofed up the names and omitted career numbers. Won't happen again.
Speaking specifically of Hunter's curveball (and we're dealing with a sample of like 70 pitches here, which is not at all statistically significant, so keep that in mind), the pitch currently rates as 1.71 runs above average per 100 pitches over at FanGraphs, which would put the pitch on the fringes of the top 20 curveballs in baseball right now if he had pitched enough innings to qualify, and his change-up rates as 2.01 runs above average per 100 pitches, which is a top-20 ranking.
In Hunter's most recent start, I identified 18 sub-80 mph pitches that had movement and velocity indicative of the curveball (a number of these pitches were erroneously classified by Pitch f/x as sliders, including several 75 mph pitches), and on these putative curveballs he generated an average of 8.55 inches of horizontal movement and -0.96 inches of vertical movement.
So what, you ask?
Well, check out just how favorably that movement compares with Roy Halladay's curveball, which is one of the best in the majors today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/curve_movement.png
That's a legitimate upper-tier breaking pitch.
David, Trip - what is your source that Hunter added a 2 seamer?
Goyo - Three pieces of circumstantial evidence suggest that Hunter has added a 2-seamer to his repertoire:
(1) There was a report out of the FIL last year that Hunter was working on a 2-seamer.
(2) According to PitchFX, Hunter's fastball this year is 2 MPH slower with significantly altered horizontal and vertical movement compared to last year.
(3) Watching his second professional start this year, Hunter was clearly throwing two different fastballs. One was high 80's with really good movement and one was 91-93 MPH that was pretty straight. I saw Hunter pitch in the minors a couple of times last year and he never threw the high 80's pitch with movement that I saw ten days ago.
More on Hunter vs Beavan. Their stuff is eerily similar right now, but Hunter clearly has the far superior off-speed stuff. He might be 2-3 years older, but he's already demonstrated that he can get major league hitters out (small sample size, though, of course). Beavan is still trying to get some consistency at the AA level. I'm not saying Beavan won't take the necessary steps, but you can never count on that to happen. Hunter is already there, not that he's a finished product or anything.
Hunter's "new" pitch is identified as a slider by PITCHf/x. I saw it on video a few times, and it looks like a really tight, late breaking slider. Given its velocity and the frequency with which Hunter throws the pitch, though, I doubt that it's actually a slider. It's likely some sort of cutter or sinker, both [edit]are typically variations of a 2-seam fastball[/edit].
According to Nadel or TAG I'm not sure which, when Tommy first came back up he said, Hunter had been working on a cutter this spring and was making great progress with it. I'm not sure that's a 2 seem fastball or not but I'm pretty sure that's his new pitch.
David, what is your evidence Beavan throws a two-seamer? LOL
Trip, a cutter certainly is NOT a "typical variation of a 2-seam fastball".
At this stage I find it quite hard to believe any of the writers have an actual baseball background.
Tiger 15: I'm not sure how *you* were taught to throw a cutter, but more often than not, it is thrown with a two-seam grip. Since it is a fastball, that makes it a two-seam fastball. Your mistake is in assuming that a two-seamer is automatically a sinker-type pitch.
The main difference in grip between the two is that a cutter is held with the middle finger toward the outside of the baseball while a sinker is held with the middle finger toward the inside of the baseball. This can also be accomplished by changing the position of your thumb, which helps some pitchers get better action on sinking two-seamers.
Thank you for sharing.
Tiger 15: On behalf of David... It's pretty common knowledge that Blake Beavan's primary fastball in 2008 was a two-seam fastball. Jason Cole was among the first to report it, but it was confirmed and subsequently reported by several other outlets.
nice article guys.
Trip, I do have a question for you. You say:
"In the end, the two pitchers will probably wind up as pretty similar pitchers, each working with excellent command of two fastballs and two solid, if unimpressive, off-speed pitches."
You consider Hunters curveball "unimpressive"? I think it is a plus ML pitch, which would seem to be impressive.
tricer: You've misread it. Think of it this way: "If the offspeed pitches are not impressive, they will be solid." Most people who use this type of phrasing do it incorrectly, and I find that, as a result, most readers read it wrong.
I happen to think that Hunter's curve *is* impressive, but his change up is solid. I think Beavan's change up is solid with a chance to be impressive. His slider will likely be a solid pitch for him against righties if he locates it well.