Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: On Pitching & Baserunning
Yankees right-hander Chien-Ming Wang fires a pitch at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, July 4th.Two quick things: First, as was first reported here at Baseball Time in Arlington earlier this morning, highly regarded minor league first baseman Justin Smoak has been promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City, and second, take special care not to overlook David Brown's and Trip Somers' incisive stats- and scouting-oriented analysis of Double-A Frisco outfielders Mitch Moreland and Tim Smith:
● In light of the pitching attrition that has deprived the Rangers' starting rotation of Matt Harrison, Brandon McCarthy and now possibly Vicente Padilla, Tommy Hunter's superb 5.1-inning, one-run performance against the Rays on his 23rd birthday couldn't have possibly come at a better time; his curveball was nothing short of exceptional, steadily generating eight-plus inches of horizontal movement -- bearing a certain similarity to Roy Halladay's otherworldly yakker -- and keeping a potent Tampa Bay lineup consistently off balance as he coasted to his first major league win.
The prospects of viable rotation reinforcements being acquired at or before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline do not appear particularly strong; on Friday, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark affirmed the prevailing notion that free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets will not be physically capable of helping a team this year, and the latest trade possibility to come to light is Yankees right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, the struggling sinkerballer whom SI.com's Jon Heyman reported was a player of interest to the Rangers and Phillies on Friday.
Wang, 29, is due $5 million this season, so Texas would remain on the hook for at least $1.5 million in the event of his procurement unless New York elected to eat a significant portion of that sum, and Philadelphia reportedly offered a prospect "not to the Yankees' liking" for Wang, who collected his first major league win in more than a year against the Mets on June 28th and has amassed a 10.06 ERA through his first 36.2 innings of the 2009 regular season.
From where I sit, the odds of the two clubs striking an agreement do not appear all that great, and even though he might possess clear-cut rebound potential and two more years of club control after 2009, his prospective arbitration-bolstered 2010 and 2011 paychecks may not reconcile with the Rangers' multi-year performance forecast.
● MLB.com's Daniel Pauling recently lauded the Rangers' basestealing prowess thus far in 2009, which has manifested to the tune of the best team stolen-base percentage in the American League at 84.8 percent (67-for-79), but modern sabermetrics enable us to penetrate beyond the surface statistics and evaluate other aspects of baserunning -- and it is in this regard that Texas is not excelling, but rather floundering.
According to team baserunning statistics devised by former Baseball Prospectus author Dan Fox (now working as the Pirates' director of baseball systems development), that lofty basestealing success rate has amounted to a theoretical 4.53-run edge above what would be expected given the number and quality of the Rangers' basestealing opportunities (the best mark in baseball, and worth nearly half a win), but Texas actually grades out at minus-4.04 runs once the other team baserunning components are added to the mix. Why is this?
Basically, the Rangers have been a bottom-tier team in terms of generating additional runs by means of baserunning advancements on ground balls, fly balls and base hits; they have particularly struggled in that final category, grading out as the worst team in baseball in terms of advancing on base hits (minus-5.53 runs), and the baserunning numbers available at Bill James Online support this assertion, with Texas successfully advancing from first to third base just 10 times in 73 opportunities (or 13.7 percent of the time, the ballclub's worst seasonal mark since at least 2001) and from first base to home plate just 10 times in 45 opportunities, which is also the ballclub's lowest success rate since 2001.
Injury Updates: Center fielder Josh Hamilton (abdominal surgery) went 0-for-5 during his latest minor league rehab start at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Friday evening and insists his timing "is there even if the results aren't," but Texas will refrain from activating Hamilton until at least Sunday, if not longer ... RedHawks outfielder Brandon Boggs reportedly dislocated his left shoulder while making a routine catch on Friday evening and is scheduled for re-evaluation today ... Left-hander Matt Harrison (left shoulder inflammation) will play catch today and visit a neurologist on Monday.
Quick Hits: After blowing his second save of the season against the Angels on Wednesday evening, closer Frank Francisco looked markedly better in protecting a two-run lead on Friday evening; his command of the splitter was impeccable and his fastball velocity peaked at 95.7 mph, his strongest mark in quite some time ... Catcher Taylor Teagarden will reportedly begin starting two days a week in relief of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
3 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (3)
Looks like my prediction that Texas would be 10 games out by the end of July isn't going to happen. LOL.
But I'm glad I was wrong & overreacted to that terrible homestand against the NL West.
Maybe instead we'll see Smoak in Arlington by the end of July.
And remember everyone who want Texas to dump Hank 2 weeks ago? Funny how things change.
One thing you gotta hand it to this team for - they are resilient and keep going at it, even when they are not playing particularly well.
Shouldn't we give a *little* credit for that to the skipper, Ron Washington? I think so.
I really hope that report about Wang is nothing but hot air. What he's got left we don't need. As far as Blalock goes, I'd still trade him. We might even be able to get something back for him while he's hitting a little. Unless I start to see him exercising a little more plate discipline and walking more, I don't want him. All those last couple of homers are going to do is make him start trying even harder to hit more.
Wang left today's game with some shoulder issues. Don't think we'll be seeing him in a Rangers uni.