Rangers Prospect Analysis: Mitch Moreland Vs. Tim Smith

Mitch Moreland - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasTim Smith and Mitch Moreland have traveled nearly identical paths since being drafted in the 7th and 17th rounds by the Texas Rangers in the 2007 amateur draft. Both players signed in the summer of 2007 and made their professional debuts in the short-season Northwest League at Spokane.

The duo spent the 2008 season pummeling the Low-A Midwest League and then started the 2009 season at High-A Bakersfield before being promoted to Double-A Frisco after 5-6 weeks worth of games in the High-A California League. As noted below, both players have excelled at the plate:

OF TIM SMITH (6' 3", 225 lb.)

Year	Level	Games	PA	Hits	XBH	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS*
2007	A- (ss)	23	96	23	6	11	16	.284	.396	.383	107
2008	A	121	538	142	42	33	81	.300	.359	.450	117
2008	A+	35	138	40	9	10	20	.333	.413	.475	119
2009	AA	25	108	35	8	8	13	.365	.406	.469	117

OF MITCH MORELAND (6' 2", 230 lb.)

Year	Level	Games	PA	Hits	XBH	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS*
2007	A- (ss)	27	118	28	10	8	25	.259	.308	.398	97
2008	A	123	466	151	59	60	67	.324	.400	.536	135
2008	A+	43	170	58	27	21	26	.341	.421	.594	135
2009	AA	34	151	46	14	9	17	.329	.371	.486	115

Smith has been more productive on the basepaths in his minor league career (33 stolen bases and 12 caught stealing vs. four stolen bases and five caught stealing for Moreland) and has the speed and arm strength of a major league left fielder. Moreland has a great arm, but his lack of foot speed means that he is likely to play first base or designated hitter if he gets to the majors. Interestingly, John Sickels and Baseball America have both taken notice of Smith and Moreland since their successful transition to AA-ball.

DAVID'S TAKE

There is little doubt that Smith and Moreland have been among the most productive hitters in the Rangers' minor league system the past two seasons. The OPS* columns in the above tables is the league-adjusted OPS for both players, and reveals that Smith and Moreland have significantly outperformed their peers in each of the full-season leagues where they have played. Moreland, in particular, was outstanding in both the Midwest and California Leagues where he ranked among the top five in batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS.

The Rangers' conservative promotion schedule for the two players has been puzzling and has made it difficult to determine whether Smith and Moreland should be considered legitimate prospects. The players were 22 years old last year in the Midwest League, where the average hitter was 21.6 years old. They started this year in the California League, where they were still older than the league average (22.7 years). Their promotions to the Texas League (average age of 24 years) finally have the duo competing against players who are generally their age and older and thus far, the returns have been outstanding.

With the caveat that the majority of their at-bats have come against younger pitchers, a comparison of the two players' statistical profiles suggests that Moreland is more likely than Smith to sustain his level of production and become an effective major leaguer.

Moreland has excelled in two areas that tend to translate well to the major leagues: strike zone management and power. In the past two years, Moreland's unintentional walk rate (10.3 percent) has been nearly equal to his strikeout rate (12.5 percent), which is very unusual for a power hitter. And Moreland's power numbers the last two years (65 doubles, six triples, 29 home runs, .540 SLG, 39 percent XBH) are on par with the best power hitting prospects in the game (Stanton - .562 SLG, LaPorta - .561 SLG, Carter – .528 SLG, Blanks – .509 SLG, Heyward - .490 SLG, Anderson – .470 SLG, Morrison - .465 SLG).

Max Ramirez is generally regarded as a very good hitting prospect in the Rangers' system due to his ability to hit for average, hit for power, and draw walks. In three-plus years of full-season minor league baseball, Ramirez has posted a line of .299/.390/.499 in 1284 at-bats. In 776 at-bats in three full-season leagues, Moreland has hit .328/.400/.540. Moreland's unusual combination of high contact rate, high walk percentage, and impressive power suggest that he will be a productive hitter when he reaches the major leagues.

In contrast to Moreland, Smith's unintentional walk, strikeout, and extra-base hit rates (6.7 percent, 16.1 percent and 28.9 percent, respectively) the last two seasons have been average at best. Much of Smith's productivity is driven by his batting average (.314 the last two years), which has benefited from a very high BABIP (.339 in A-ball, .375 in A+-ball and .415 in AA-ball). For his career, Smith has 15 percent line drive, 36 percent fly ball, and 16 percent popup rates that are all approximately average and suggest that a very high percentage of his ground balls are finding holes in the infield.

As Smith continues to progress, he will face better defenses that will convert more of his hits into outs and negatively affect his batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Smith is a good athlete who has improved as he has moved up through the Rangers' system, but at this point his statistical profile suggests that he must significantly improve his power and his walk rate before he can be considered a threat to have a productive major league career.

TRIP ON MORELAND

Moreland's approach might need some work. At the lower levels, Moreland's approach obviously played very well, but so far in AA-ball, his power has been utterly sapped. He has flashed power to all fields at times, but not consistently since his promotion to the Texas League. His raw power remains undeniable and rates as plus or better.

Additionally, Moreland has been hitting into way more than his fair share of double plays. It seems like every time he bats with a man on first base, it's a foregone conclusion that he'll be hitting a routine double play ball to the second baseman. This could be blind, stinking luck, but it seems to me like a big indicator that there's something in his approach being exploited by AA-ball pitchers.

His low strikeout rate belies the fact that Moreland is often tagged as having a "long swing." He has no trouble with pitches away, but struggles with breaking balls low and in, even from right-handed pitchers.

Moreland certainly doesn't look overmatched at this level, but if his power doesn't come back, he's not the type of player whose defense will make up the difference. He's passable as a corner outfielder, defensively, but a lot of scouts feel he's more of a designated hitter at the major league level. I think he might be better than that, and his arm is already very well respected around the Texas League.

Moreland is not likely to fail at the AA level, but his power and walk rates are his ticket to the big leagues. Right now, they need to improve.

TRIP ON SMITH

Smith has been on roughly equal ground with Moreland since they were promoted to Frisco. Offensively, they've been essentially the same player, with Smith getting more hits and Moreland getting more walks. Neither has begun to hit for power in AA-ball.

Smith has never really hit for power as a professional outside of a two-month stretch to end the 2008 season. His raw power is at least average, but he tends to be more of a line drive, gap-to-gap hitter.

His extremely low walk rate is interesting. Smith doesn't have a bad batting eye, and he tends to see a lot of pitches. My impression of him is that Smith usually has a very good idea of what pitch is about to come his way, and this helps him make great contact with pitches both in and out of the strike zone.

What I mean by this is that when Smith is looking for (and gets) a fastball away, he's likely to make good contact with it even if it's six inches outside. It's an aggressive style that definitely has its advantages, but it blurs the hitter's ability to be selective. I fully believe that Smith could take more walks if he set his mind to it, but those walks would definitely come with more strikeouts.

On defense, Smith has the range and defensive chops to play solid defense in left field at any level, but he lacks Moreland's impressive arm.

He's a lot bigger than Rusty Greer, but when you watch Smith play, it's hard not to be reminded of him. Greer's walk rate was always among the best in every league in which he played, making it a huge advantage for him. Outside of the enormous gap in their walk rates, the comparison between Smith and Greer is very strong. Smith plays hard and loves to get dirty.

Smith is a guy who has shown enough tools to have success, but he will need to improve his walk rate to really move up the ranks and eventually make an impact at the Major League level.

Comments

[Jon Page]

Awesome stuff guys, it's really nice to see some in-depth scouting on these two, especially Smith.

Based on what I'm reading here, Smith kind of sounds like his future profile could be as a David Murphy-type hitter in the bigs - do you guys think that's a fair comp, just as far as potential MLB production goes?

[t ball]

Great, detailed look guys. I've noted Moreland's diving walk rate since moving to AA, and something I'm watching every box score for signs of improvement. I was very frustrated last year when the Rangers kept him in Midland instead of challenging him with a promotion. It would have been a good idea, in my opinion, to challenge him quickly and force him to make adjustments to pitchers at a higher level. Hopefully he'll do that, because a player with that mix of patience and power is something the Rangers don't have enough of right now. He'd look awfully good hitting a couple of slots behind Smoak if he can do that.

[david]

Interesting idea, Jon, but Smith needs to significantly increase his extra base hit rate (27%) to approach what Murphy has done in the big leagues (41%). Worth noting though is that Smith's minor league career numbers to date (311/377/449) far outpace what Murphy did as a minor leaguer (273/343/407). Having significantly better major than minor league numbers is uncommon, especially among players who fail to reach the majors before they reach their mid-20's, but it does happen as witnessed by Murphy. Smith still has time to improve his walk rate and power and become major league hitter on par with Murphy.

I didn't look back to confirm this, but I seem to recall that Moreland started the year in Bakersfield with a lower-than-expected walk rate. I've never done the work to verify this, but my sense is that prospects tend to be more aggressive when they move up to a new level before settling back into their old ways. If that is true, then you might expect a hitter to take fewer walks and get more hits in his first 20 games or so before settling back in to working counts and taking walks. I'm sure that you've noticed, but Moreland has four walks in his last six game. During that span, his walk rate has been 15%. Moreland's slugging percentage has also been on the rise for the last couple of weeks as he is converting some of those early AA singles into doubles and homeruns.

For the past year or so, I've hoped that Moreland was the next coming of Hafner but feared that he is the next coming of Botts. If Moreland is sporting an OPS north of 900 at the end of the year in Frisco, I hope that there is still room for me on that bandwagon you've been driving for the past year, t ball.

[t ball]

I don't know about Botts as a comp, Moreland seems like a better contact hitter, and less likely to be an extreme walker. Botts was patient to a fault, and if Moreland fails I think it would be for different reasons. Odd how Botts has completely failed in Japan.

[david]

Good morning, t ball.
I didn't mean to imply that I consider either Botts or Hafner to be a comp for Moreland. Rather, I consider those two guys as the two ends of the spectrum when it comes to the Rangers developing low round draft picks into power hitting prospects. I

For what it is worth, I've looked around for major league players who shared Moreland's high slugging/high average/above average walk/above average K-rate profile and have been unsuccessful.

[FirebatM3]

David, there is one and he played for the Rangers twice in his career - Frank Catalanotto.

[Tommy]

If the Rangers would get there head out of there asses and put Moreland in the Majors they would see he's one of the best out there.