Rangers Prospect Analysis: Kasey Kiker Vs. Omar Poveda
Kasey Kiker - Scott Lucas/The Ranger RundownWith only a few brief interruptions, Kasey Kiker and Omar Poveda have been teammates since they anchored the pitching staff at Low-A Clinton that produced a cumulative 3.51 ERA in 2007. Now pitching for Double-A Frisco, the left-handed Kiker and right-handed Poveda are among the leaders in several Texas League pitching categories despite being two of the younger players in the league.
21-year-old Kasey Kiker was the Rangers first-round pick in the 2006 amateur draft (12th overall). He began his professional career as an 18-year-old pitching for Spokane in the short-season Northwest League. Kiker has advanced a level each year and been among the youngest players in each league, consistently competing against hitters who have been two to four years his senior. As noted in the table below, Kiker's minor league career has been marked by consistently high strikeout rates, improving control, and relatively low hit rates:
Poveda was signed at the age of 16 as an international free agent and began his stateside career as a 17-year-old in the Arizona Rookie League. Poveda skipped the Northwest League and spent most of two seasons as one of the youngest pitchers in the full-season Midwest League. Approximately two months older than Kiker, Poveda has been the one to receive the call for spot starts at higher leagues when a starting spot has opened up. As noted in the table below, Poveda has enjoyed high strikeout rates until this season, good control when not pitching in the California League, and improving batting average against rates:
DAVID'S TAKE
With the exception of 2007 when they played as 19-year-olds in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, neither Kiker nor Poveda has posted dominant numbers for a full season. Their career minor league numbers don't sparkle like those of Derek Holland or Neftali Feliz or other prospects who project as top-of-the-rotation types. Instead, both pitchers bear the bruises that come with competing against much older players while developing the stuff and command that are required to be successful in the major leagues
Since entering the Rangers' system, Kiker has developed an excellent change-up and improved his control. Poveda has added a curveball and a few miles per hour on his fastball and has significantly reduced the rate at which opponents get base hits (.293 BAA in his first two seasons vs. .228 in his last three seasons). Interestingly, Poveda's ground ball rate this season (49 percent ground balls vs. 33 percent fly balls) has been outstanding after being prone to fly balls for much of his career.
After several seasons of step-wise improvement, Kiker and Poveda are now among the Texas League leaders in ERA. Kiker, despite battling control problems through his first 11 starts, currently ranks third in ERA, sixth in WHIP, and first in strikeouts (96). Poveda, despite an approximately 50 percent drop in strikeout rate compared to his two previous seasons, currently ranks 10th in ERA, ninth in WHIP, and third in innings pitched per start (6.0) in the Texas League.
Although Kiker and Poveda receive significantly less attention than other pitching prospects in the Rangers' system, I think it is very likely that one or both pitchers will become solid major league starters based upon the following evidence:
● More than 50 percent of minor league players who effectively compete against much older players develop into major leaguers. Kiker and Poveda are in line to join just 31 pitchers who, since 2003, have tossed at least 90 innings of sub-4.00 ERA baseball in AA-ball before turning 22 years old. The others on the list? Adenhart, Gonzalez, Hanson, Volstad, Tillman, Jurrjens, Garcia, Morales, Patton, Nolasco, Floyd, Inman, Cortes, Wainwright, Buchholz, Mazzaro, Simmons, Bowden, Niese, Dittler, Balestar, Hughes, Burnett, Jackson, Cabrera, Cruceta, Blackley, Nelson, Pinto, Clippard and Laffey.
● Starting pitchers who make their American League debuts at the age of 22 (as Poveda and Kiker seem likely to do) become league-average starters or better before they reach their 25th birthdays 50 percent of the time.
● The average career minor league stats of twelve of the best mid-rotation starters in the major leagues (Shields, Saunders, Danks, Guthrie, Maine, Jurrjens, Blackburn, Cook, Perkins, Litsch, Harang and Davis) are very similar to those amassed by Kiker and Poveda:
TRIP ON KIKER
Both pitchers work the classic three-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, and change-up. Their fastballs are fairly comparable, and both feature change-ups that are better than their curveballs.
It's hard to argue with the success Kiker has had this season, but his scouting report isn't terribly exciting outside of his impressive change-up. His fastball has hit every tick on the radar gun between 84 and 96 mph, though he's been at 88-90 mph fairly consistently for the past month. It has enough movement to fool hitters when he locates it on the edges. He has a tendency to leave it up just a bit, but this really hasn't hurt him too much in the Texas League.
As for his curveball, he recently told Baseball America's Todd Traub that it is "morphing into a slider." At times it looks as if he's throwing two different curveballs -- one that moves across the plate and one with more 12-to-6 action.
He has trouble finishing the pitch, sometimes coming around the ball and giving it that sweeping action that makes it look like a slider. Other times, the ball comes out of his hand too early and stays up and in to left-handed hitters with little break.
His change-up is a very solid 78-81 mph offering with great deception.
One thing Kiker obviously does well is mix his pitches. He's got a great idea on the mound and does a great job of keeping hitters off balance.
TRIP ON POVEDA
Poveda is shockingly similar. His fastball has been 87-91 mph for most of the season, mixing in several pitches in the 92-94 mph range. As of April, Poveda was throwing a four-seamer and a two-seamer. This may or may not still be true, but my eyes tell me this is still the case.
His two-seam fastball has considerable arm-side run, but it is roughly the same speed as his four-seam fastball. When he gets his four-seam fastball on a solid downward plane, it has great sinking action.
Poveda's curveball has been a plus pitch at times this year, but he's still trying to achieve some consistency in his command of it.
Professor Parks likes to refer to Poveda's change-up as a "Bugs Bunny change-up," and I think that description fits really well. Poveda gets even better deception than Kiker, and it moves almost like a screwball
Poveda's numbers have improved across the board with a single exception -- his strikeout rate.
TRIP'S TAKE
A couple of weeks ago, I personally ranked Poveda as the better prospect, and I still feel that way.
Despite Kiker's success, I'm just not convinced that his stuff will continue to play the way it has. Kiker has definite pitchability that plays very well in the Texas League, but his command is still a big question mark for me. He's been better lately, but it hasn't been enough to supplant Poveda in my mind.
One advantage that Kiker has over Poveda is the prospect of being a lefty-lefty specialist or a late-inning power arm. His left-handedness opens the door to an opportunity that Poveda will never have, and it is presumed that there may be some extra velocity in Kiker's arm coming out of the bullpen.
Both pitchers still need some work before they will be major league-ready. I think Poveda is closer because his off-speed stuff is better refined. In addition to that, Poveda has very recently started working on a slider that will either improve his game or be scrapped.
In the end, the two pitchers really aren't far apart as prospects. They have similar ceilings, are at a similar stage of development, and are nearly the exact same age. Either one could become a middle of the rotation starter or a total flame out.
6 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (6)
Excellent stuff, thanks for taking the time. Seems to me that the difference in command is likely found in the gap in innings between the two. There's about a season and a half of minor league time separating the development between them. I'm thinking that at the point KK has accumulated 550 innings his command will be closer to ML ready than it is now.
Good stuff...
You've heard it from me before but I think Kiker's attitude and competitiveness are his best traits... and will be what carries him to the bigs. I believe we'll one day be talking about Kiker as one of the Rangers better pitchers... just a hunch!
Great stuff guys. I can't wait to see how these two pan out. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Kiker in a relief role. I'd prefer him to be more than a LOOGY, but I don't really care how he gets to Arlington. He's just one of the guys I'd like to see succeed with the Rangers.
so what do either of you say about Bob Sturm's reference to Bill James and a necessity of at least 4.5 Ks per 9 IP as a benchmark of major league sustained success? I hope its wrong, especially as it relates to Feldman, but these guys could make that happen, eh?
Scottus: unfortunately I find it impossible to argue with Bill James on this one. However, Feldman is still young and not farm removed from a complete mechanical overhall. Since he's shown an ability to adapt (adding a highly effective cutter to his arsenal this year), it's entirely possible that he develops a solid 12-6 curve or some other strikeout pitch. I think it's too early to tell on Feldman.
The 2008 Top 10 Sub-5 K/9 Starting Pitchers
Aaron Cook – 4.8 WAR, 4.1 K/9
Jesse Litsch – 2.8 WAR, 4.9 K/9
Joe Saunders – 2.8 WAR, 4.7 K/9
Nick Blackburn – 2.5 WAR, 4.5 K/9
Greg Maddux – 2.1 WAR, 4.6 K/9
Jon Garland – 1.9 WAR, 4.1 K/9
Zach Duke – 1.9 WAR, 4.2 K/9
Jason Marquis – 1.8 WAR, 4.9 K/9
Braden Looper – 1.7 WAR, 4.9 K/9
Carlos Silva – 1.5 WAR, 4.1 K/9
Starters can survive without having strong strike-out rates, but it is hard to excel when you don't miss bats.
I view Feldman in much the same way that I view Hunter, Beavan, and hopefully Harrison. These are guys that you love to have on your team because they can take the ball every 5th day and give you ~6 innings while giving up 3 or 4 runs. When the Rangers' offense gets back on track, they will win at least as many of those games as they lose.
Feldman is a solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher. As long as he viewed and used as such, he should be successful.