Trade Deadline Perspectives: The Great Rangers Financial Impasse
Has Hicks Sports Group's financial hardship completely precluded a potential pursuit of Blue Jays ace right-hander Roy Halladay?If I may be so brazen as to reiterate a point I made some 48 hours ago, the absolute worst thing about occupying that murky middle ground in the late-July standings -- you know, that veritable Bermuda Triangle of uncertainty where you're more than three games but fewer than six games out of first place -- is the heightened probability of making an incorrect buy-or-sell decision, the sort which can, in an instant, deplete your reserves of young talent, infuriate your clubhouse and/or alienate your revenue-generating core of paying customers.
Not having a relatively firm grasp on what exactly you are as a ballclub during perhaps the single-most chaotic and pressure-packed week of the calendar year is a surefire gateway to bad organizational decision-making -- and just to complicate matters even further, sometimes even the most calculated roster manipulations made with only the best intentions can actually achieve their desired effects and still come back to haunt you, as evidenced by the August 30th, 1990 trade which netted the Red Sox veteran reliever Larry Andersen ... and rendered a 22-year-old Jeff Bagwell Houston-bound.
[Granted, this is not a perfect or even very good example of what I'm talking about; it assuredly wasn't the most well-thought out deal on Boston's end in that it was spurred by the Red Sox' desperation for effective bullpen reinforcements following the inexplicable mid-season meltdown of previously reliable left-hander Rob Murphy, but Andersen was an excellent late-inning reliever down the stretch for Boston, logging 22 stellar innings of three-run baseball and fortifying the relief corps, and if not for the acquisition of Andersen it is conceivable that the Red Sox might not have held off the charging Blue Jays for the title of divisional supremacy.
Sure, it now stands as one of the worst trades in baseball history, but at the time, Boston placed a particular emphasis upon reaching the post-season, with not nearly as much regard for Bagwell's projected production during the forthcoming seasons. And I sense a little bit of that same "win now, irrespective of the cost" mentality going on right now within a small faction of the Rangers' fan base.]
By virtue of right-hander Doug Mathis's passable Tuesday evening emergency spot start, five brilliant frames of one-hit relief and some opportunistic early-inning offense, the Texas Rangers remain just 2.5 games behind the first-place Angels and, by all accounts, alive in the ongoing pursuits of Blue Jays ace right-hander Roy Halladay and Indians ace left-hander Cliff Lee, cementing their precarious standing as a buyer in a seller's market.
Had the Rangers not hung tough in a potential three-game weekend trap series against Kansas City and administered consecutive body blows to Detroit, the impetus to make such a deal might be considerably weaker right now, but this ballclub -- and, more specifically, this pitching staff -- is doing everything it can to convince team executives that yes, it is for real in spite of the still-existent holes, and yes, it does deserve to have a chance taken on it.
The ultimate irony is that barring some exceedingly creative machinations on the part of general manager Jon Daniels, nothing substantive on the roster-bolstering front might actually materialize; as of early Wednesday morning, the Rangers had rejected a Blue Jays-conceived offer that would have landed Halladay but also would have shipped left-hander Derek Holland, first baseman Justin Smoak and outfielder Julio Borbon northward, and Toronto is currently not expressing even moderate interest in subsiding a portion of Halladay's contract, so even though the Halladay-to-Texas notion was never anything more than a pipe dream, that pipe dream has now circled the drain, been processed through the water treatment facility and is now floating downstream.
According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, the Rangers were not actively engaged in talks with the Indians as far as a potential Lee-to-Texas deal as of Tuesday evening, and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Jeff Wilson is speculating that Lee's remaining 2009 salary -- which amounts to roughly $2 million over the regular season's final two months -- is also too prohibitive for Texas to absorb. If that latter supposition is indeed accurate and there really aren't sufficient funds to funnel towards the addition of a very, very good six-win starting pitcher, regardless of what he would cost in terms of talent, then you can essentially forget about Jarrod Washburn (whom the Rangers scouted on Tuesday evening), Troy Glaus and virtually every other market-level player of potential interest, because the Rangers' trade deadline goose will have effectively been cooked.
Speculating on how such potential deadline inaction would affect the psyches of the Rangers' most stalwart and determined players isn't really something I'm inclined to do, but I do know one thing: the message sent by not even attempting to improve the big league product when it (a) looms so tantalizingly close to first place and (b) still has 10 games remaining against the front-running squad is not a good one. Not to on-field management, not to the loyal paying customers and certainly not to the players.
That isn't an advocation of making a trade just to make a trade, of course, but if the well-publicized financial straits of Hicks Sports Group disable the Rangers from pursuing a trade opportunity that might have meaningfully improved their post-season chances, this entire season might ultimately go down as a highly memorable one (which in some ways it already is) -- but not necessarily the good kind of memorable.
Injury News: Second baseman Ian Kinsler (strained left hamstring) could miss several games Closer Frank Francisco (mild pneumonia) threw a successful batting practice session on Monday and could throw live batting practice today, after which the Rangers will make the determination as to whether he needs to embark on a brief minor league rehab assignment ... High-A Bakersfield outfielder Engel Beltre (BBTiA's No. 18 prospect) has been placed on the disabled list with a hamate bone fracture in his right hand; in early July 2007, Mets outfielder Carlos Gomez incurred a similar injury -- albeit of a potentially more severe nature than Beltre's fracture -- and ultimately missed two months, setting a possible precedent for Beltre's recovery timetable; Low-A Hickory outfielder David Paisano has been promoted to the Blaze to occupy Beltre's roster spot.
Quick Hits: Elvis Andrus is the 10th player in major league history to attain a 20-steal campaign before his 21st birthday and the first since Andruw Jones (1997).
13 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, Rumors, The Season
Reader Comments (13)
I believe they're "attempting", they may just ultimately be unsuccessful.
That said, I'm betting that a backup deal gets made once it's clear the window is absolutely closed on Halladay. It may not be as sexy, and the village might not be as excited about it, but we may come to appreciate it as the better of outcomes given the cost incurred. Just speculating.
"The message sent by not even attempting to improve the big league product when it still has 10 games remaining against the front-running squad is not a good one."
I really hope that this never enters JD's thought process. As a GM, you don't make moves to "send a good message" to the rest of the organization - you make moves that make sense for the advancement of the club. I'm sure that Wash and the current players would love to get some help - but they are only concerned with this year. JD needs to focus on the long-term.
Personally, I'm hoping for no significant move. I just can't help but think this team is full of smoke and mirrors: average offense, below-average pitching staff (pitching above average) and a good defense. To me, that doesn't equal a playoff contender.
Think about it this way. If the Rangers make a trade, they would be giving up almost-major league ready prospects for a huge salaried player. Where would the money come from next year to pay higher salaries in arbitration/contract extensions to some of their veterans? And if the team decided to dump those higher-salaried players, they won't have the young prospects anymore to move up!
I'm completely against making a move just to pacify the players, coaches, and/or fans. The steadfast fans realize "the plan" is not even in full effect yet and that 2010 and beyond will truly be the "exciting years" to be a Rangers fan.
I've been pushing for Halladay before the season even began... and frankly I'm not scared off at the prospect of dealing Smoak, Holland, and Borbon. There is NO guarantee with any of those three players... with that said there's also no guarantee that Hallday gets us over the hump and into the playoffs. In fact, let's suppose for a minute that he does accept a trade here, pitches well for the last 2 months, etc... and we either make or mis the playoffs. It's quite obvious Hicks can't offer a lucrative extension... and although we'd have Hallday for next year as well, I'm not sure Hicks could pay him.
HOWEVER, what if we did get Halladay and then we flipped him in the off season? We'd likely recoup at least part of the package we sent the Jays... and maybe we'd even get a better package, who knows?
I wouldn't want to be in JDs shoes this week... but as a loyal Ranger's fan, I would be perfectly happy if JD choose to stood pat and make no moves.
I think part of Halladay's value right now is his presence on a team during the pennant crunch & the AL or NL CS / WS. I doubt that you would get 3 prospects of Smoak, Borbon & Holland's caliber if you "flipped" him in the post-season. The Rangers look like they are wisely staying away from that - and that makes sense when you're talking of a guy who simply does not want to pitch here in Texas, and WILL play the free agent lotto after 2010. If Halladay was amenable to a 3 year extension, then such a price might be justifiable. But without an extension, you had better be damn sure you are going to win in 2010 if you're going to give up that much of your top-tier talent for 1 year of an ace like Halladay.
So I just don't see this happening, and I think it's all for the best.
Considering how well JD has done with the scrap heap this season (O'Day, Grilli), maybe Texas should just keep looking there for a player or two to add. The other thing is that they do have a bunch of other guys they can bring up in a few weeks, and the young players for the most part - esp. on the pitching side - have mostly all worked out really well. The big irony? So far the biggest bust of these young pitchers has to be... Holland. And he's the guy everyone says has the highest upside.
The big names are just too costly, in terms of young talent to get them and money -- and it is just so temporary. It would be so short-sighted to trade three potential young stars for a pitcher who would stay with us for less than two years. A team that will be successful for many years -- that's the opportunity the Rangers have if they stay the course. Think of the Yankees in the 40's and 50's, UCLA basketball team in the 70's, the Chicago Bulls of the 90's. But we'll never get there if we give away young talent in three-for-one deals -- and the one is a mercenary rent-a-player. These young players will be good, very soon, and they will be affordable for several years before we have to worry about losing them. I enjoy reading Greek tragedies -- a recurring theme in them is that "Man shall learn wisdom through suffering." Ranger fans have suffered for so long, but the club's course of action since the Tex trade has been wise and provides hope for not just a one-year wonder type of winner, but a club that can establish a true winning tradition.
JDolla$: Holland has been a disappointment so far in the big leagues; however, what gives him more upside/makes him more coveted is his higher strikeout rate. It’s very rare to win even 100 games in the bigs without a K/9 rate greater than 6. Holland is over 7 unlike Hunter and Feldman. Now we saw Tommy Hunter get shelled last year, and he’s come back this year with better comps and is markedly improved. There are no guarantees that Holland will have a similar epiphany, but the potential is there for him to be great (pitching instead of throwing would help).
As far as trades go, I’d have to get something big and controllable to consider trading Holland (Greinke and King Felix come to mind). Would I consider him in a deal for Halladay? Sure. But that would be in a perfect world where money isn’t an issue and he would prefer to sign an extension rather than play the market. I personally wish we could add a bat like Josh Willingham’s. Right-handed power controllable through 2011. If it would only cost us Moreland, Beavan/Kiker, and Poveda/Boscan, I would pull the trigger. Even if the three that get traded away do make it as major leaguers, there won’t be room for all of them with Texas. I personally wouldn’t feel too bad about throwing Max Ramirez in there if that gets the deal done since Willingham would further block his viability on our staff.
I feel that eventually we'll start to lose some of our organizational depth through the rule 5 draft. There's no sense in blindly holding onto all of our prospects, but it's equally bad to make a trade for the sake of it. That being said, if we can get a player that can help us now by using players we may like but may not have room for in the long run, we shouldn't be trigger shy.
Excuse my earlier info. A pitcher's success rate is tied to a strikeout rate equal to or greater than 4.5 K/9. This still would make one weary of Feldman, but now Tommy Hunter starts to look a little better.
JPaul - pure genius... you said it perfectly.
DaveH - I would not give up any promising pitching depth for someone like Willingham. You're ok with the possibility of losing Beavan or Kiker and I feel like those are exactly the types we should hold onto. JD has done an excellent job of overflowing the cupboard with pitching prospects. He's doing this because he knows the attrition rate is high and of the 20+ nice pitching prospects we have at the farm only 2-4 will pan out in the bigs.
Won't be Lee. Just went to the Phillies.
Or Snell - he just went to the M's.
And from all appearances, Toronto will hold onto Halladay rather than give him away for lesser prospects.
One other guy of interest is Washburn, but you gotta think that Seattle won't deal him within the division when they are still feasibly "in it."
Someone like Bronson Arroyo might be a fit, too. But I've read the Yanks and others are looking at him pretty seriously.
Should be an interesting next couple of days.
Pabloesque - Personally I would gladly lose Beavan if I got a piece that could help this team now. I feel at best Beavan will be a 4/5th starter and more likely a middle reliever/long man. In Tommy Hunter and Scott Feldman I believe we already have pitchers to slide into those slots. There's risk involved in any decision, but at some point we can't hold on to everyone.
Do I want to lose any of these prospects? No. And many of the guys I've mentioned are still a few years from being at risk to the rule 5 draft. We've added (providing they all sign) several more prospects in this years amateur draft. Purke and Scheppers both appear to have very high ceilings, and If it weren't for MLB's policy regarding above-slot signings, Scheppers might already be on his way to joining Beavan at AA. I think many of us forget about guys like Eric Hurley (shoulder) and Michael Main (illness) who should be back on our prospect radar next season.
I wish we could move our lower ceiling minor leaguers for major league talent, but Michael Ballard and Renny Osuna are not going to get us a major league player. At some point we'll have to make decisions about which prospects we keep. Whether it's via rule 5 or a trade, we might have to choose between Beavan and Kiker. The hope is (at least for me) that we get the chance to see Holland, Feliz, Smoak, and Perez experience success with our Rangers.
You know with all the moves St Louis has made lately, I wouldn't be surprised to see Troy Glaus end up in a Rangers uniform in the near future, with them picking up most of his contract for one or two minor leaguers. With all their acquisitions they don't have a place for him and he may not be able to play the field anyway...