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Baseball Time in Arlington ranks the Texas Rangers' top 25 prospects

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Wednesday
15Jul2009

The BBTiA Top 25 Prospect Rankings: July 2009 Edition

Due to the sheer immensity of the second annual edition of the Baseball Time in Arlington Mid-Season Top 25 Prospect Rankings, I'm electing to forgo the protracted introduction and jump right into the meat of this July's list of composite prospect rankings, comprising input from both myself and my co-writers David Brown and Trip Somers, without whose assistance this project would have been impossible.

As Jason Parks alluded to last Friday, the Texas Rangers' farm system is divisible into several different tiers, although the process of determining exactly which prospects fit into which tier -- and, for that matter, where they should fit within their respective tier -- is extremely subjective. Perceptions can vary greatly on a single prospect depending on the evaluator's frame of reference, and that is why bringing multiple voices into the conversation is sometimes the best approach. That is what we've elected to do here.

A couple of brief notes worth making before we jump into the rankings themselves:

● Each writer independently completed his own Top 25 list before the three lists were unified, and thus each writer's valuation of a given prospect assigns differing weights to the usual prospect-ranking variables, including upside, tools, proximity to the majors, age, statistics, and our gut instincts. About the only thing that we could all agree upon is that talent is the most important variable of all.

● All minor league statistics have been tallied from that respective player's cumulative minor league campaign, comprising stops at all levels from rookie ball to AAA-ball; for example, displaying Julio Borbon's small major league record over his minor league statistics obviously wouldn't make much sense.

● Players who exhausted their rookie eligibility as of the morning of Wednesday, July 15th (that is, players who exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the major league level, or accumulated more than 45 days on the Rangers' active roster during the 25-player limit period, excluding time spent on the disabled list) were not eligible for these rankings. Tommy Hunter? Still eligible. Elvis Andrus? Not so much. Selections in the 2009 amateur draft were also deemed eligible for the purposes of debate and discussion.

Enjoy.

● ● ● ● ●

No. 1: RHP Neftali Feliz | DoB: 05/02/88 | 6′ 3″, 180 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP Ron Mahay (07/31/07)
69.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 64 K, 28 BB (Oklahoma City)
David: #3 | Trip: #1 | Joey: #1
 

Pros: Lights-out fastball; fluid, effortless delivery
Cons: Not a finished product; future reliever?
ETA: 2009

Joey's Comments: Challenged by Texas with what some considered a semi-aggressive promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City after the 21-year-old flamethrower logged just 45.1 innings at Double-A Frisco in 2008, Feliz quickly demonstrated a patent ability to adjust to his new surroundings. Equipped with an explosive, high-octane fastball that has lit up Pacific Coast League radar guns to the tune of 101 mph in recent weeks, Feliz complements his bread-and-butter heater with a sharp power curveball -- one which has markedly improved by Neftali's own admission, as well as that of RedHawks pitching coach Terry Clark -- and a mid-80s change-up that plays up as a result of his immense velocity.

Feliz has sharpened both his mound consistency and his control since breaking into AAA-ball at the outset of the season, improvement reflected by his progressively declining month-to-month walk rates. He's not a finished product, but then few, if any 21-year-old pitchers are. The Rangers have clearly indicated their interest in acclimating Feliz to the majors by initially using him out of the bullpen and perhaps catching some Joel Zumaya-like lightning in a bottle as they pursue their first division title in 10 years, although this decision shouldn't breed the expectation that he's going to be pigeonholed as a reliever without first being afforded every opportunity to establish himself as a starting pitcher.

Outlook: The talent is unbelievable, the work ethic is tremendous and the ceiling is obviously that of a legitimate major league ace, the sort who logs 200-plus innings a season and perpetually inserts himself at the forefront of the Cy Young Award balloting over the course of a decade. I'm not sure any quantity of hyperbole can do his fastball proper justice; it's a true 80-grade pitch on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and dominant enough that he's likely to excel in whatever long-term role the Rangers ultimately decide to cast him in. No scouting background is required to see that, either.

No. 2: 1B Justin Smoak | DoB: 12/05/86 | 6′ 4″, 220 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 1st Round (11th overall)
218 AB, .307/.433/.486, 9 HR, 47 BB, 44 K, 0 SB (Arizona, Frisco, Oklahoma City)
David: #1 | Trip: #2 | Joey: #2

Pros: Switch hitter with power and advanced plate approach; above-average defensive potential
Cons: Unimpressive speed; no defensive flexibility
ETA:
2009 

Joey's Comments: Despite being hampered by a late-May oblique muscle strain that incapacitated the Rangers' best positional prospect for three-plus weeks, Smoak has showcased outstanding plate discipline throughout his second professional season; as David more strikingly put it, "Power hitters with more walks than strikeouts are rare and extraordinarily valuable."

While that power has not yet manifested in 2009 to the extent that Texas was presumably hoping to see, and while his error totals in a small sample at Frisco have been a source of some mild consternation, neither of these "setbacks" have yet diminished his upside as a future middle-of-the-order masher -- particularly against right-handed pitchers, whom he combats with a silky-smooth but powerful swing that allows him to impart maximum force on the baseball. That said, the whispers about his relative ineffectiveness from the right side will begin to louden if he doesn't begin hitting southpaws at a reasonable clip.

Outlook: With Texas in the thick of a heated pennant race and Smoak still adjusting to the Pacific Coast League after his promotion nearly two weeks ago, it's entirely possible that his major league debut will be deferred until early 2010, when he could create quite the firestorm of controversy around the first base position as the Rangers attempt to ascertain exactly what should be expected from contact-averse slugger Chris Davis going forward. Smoak isn't an absolutely sure thing, but he's awfully close, and odds are that he's going to be very, very good.

No: 3: LHP Martin Perez | DoB: 04/04/91 | 6′ 0″, 178 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2007)
72.2 IP, 4-5, 2.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 85 K, 26 BB (Hickory)
David: #2 | Trip: #3 | Joey: #3

Pros: Strong fastball-curveball-change-up arsenal; excellent delivery
Cons: Not exceptionally tall; attrition rate of young pitchers
ETA: 2012

Joey's Comments: In a league -- that being the pitcher-friendly South Atlantic League -- where the average age of a pitcher resides somewhere around 21.5 years, 18-year-old Martin Perez has been one of the brightest young gems in terms of both raw stuff and elite-level performance. Inked by the Rangers two summers ago with a $590,000 outlay, Perez has emerged as the Rangers' undisputed top left-handed pitching prospect and might well be that one very special player who ends up more than justifying the organization's hefty expenditures in the international market during recent years.

Perez wields an above-average repertoire of pitches with which he can summarily dispatch his opponents, including a lively low-to-mid-90s fastball (which he is capable of ramping up to 95 mph), the much-acclaimed "hammer" curveball and a change-up that, according to industry publication Baseball America, has developed into a killer pitch during the course of this season -- reportedly thrown with 12-14 mph of separation from his fastball with similar arm speed -- which has enabled him to neutralize right-handed hitters (.225 BAA), a demographic which had proven a thorn in his side one year earlier at short-season Spokane.

His delivery, frequently described as "clean and repeatable," gives him better odds than most young pitchers of fulfilling his immense potential in a major league uniform, and virtually every single statistical indicator reflects improvement between 2008 and 2009, with his strikeout rate skyrocketing above and beyond 10.5 whiffs per nine innings, his walk rate dipping into the low-threes per nine innings and his homer rate lingering around Neftali Feliz territory, which is to say very good. Unite his incredible raw talent with his cerebral approach to his craft and off-the-charts maturity, and you have an elite-caliber prospect -- the sort that could be nigh-impossible for Texas to part with in any trade, even one involving a major league ace in the vein of Roy Halladay.

Outlook: The Rangers have exercised caution with their prized young arms but have been particularly careful in their handling of Perez, effectively piggybacking Perez with right-hander Jake Brigham as a mechanism to limit his pitch counts and add a layer of protection. Perez's dominance of much older competition is so conspicuous that this season will probably be his last in Hickory, with greater challenges looming ahead in the hitter-friendly California League and the difficult, but inevitable jump to AA-ball on the not-so-distant horizon.

No. 4: RHP Tanner Scheppers | DoB: 01/17/87 | 6' 4", 200 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 1st Round (44th overall)
David: #4 | Trip: #4 | Joey: #4

Pros: Big-time fastball/curveball combination; fairly polished
Cons: Command still a work in progress; injury concerns
ETA: 2011

Joey's Comments: The first and only prospect whom David, Trip and I were able to agree upon as far as their placement in the Top 25 was concerned, Scheppers watched his draft day stock plummet amidst league-wide apprehension over the health of his prized right shoulder and consequently dropped all the way to pick No. 44, where the Rangers wasted no time in popping the amateur draft's second-best college pitcher.

From my Day One Rangers draft recap: "Scheppers utilizes a standard four-pitch repertoire comprising a fastball, slider, curveball and change-up, although his heater is something more special than the "standard" label would imply. Scheppers' fastball, his reputed best pitch, reportedly sits in the 92-94 mph range with some late life and has been clocked as high as 97-98 mph -- an offering which he complements with a hard high-70s curveball with two-plane break (meaning it breaks both down and away from right-handed hitters), his second-best pitch, albeit one which he cannot consistently throw for strikes yet, and a mid-80s change-up which he has yet to harness. Said one anonymous scouting director of his mechanics: "He's got the best arm action, delivery and stuff in this draft behind [Stephen] Strasburg, and it's a cleaner arm than Strasburg."

Outlook: Two eminent issues remain in play -- first, Texas must get Scheppers under contract, which figures to be no straightforward task, as his bonus demands are believed to reside well above "slot money," or Major League Baseball's recommended signing bonus for a particular draft position. Baseball America's estimated slot recommendation for the No. 44 pick is $776,700, but Scheppers could conceivably bank three or four times that amount before the August 17th signing deadline comes to pass. It's my expectation that he will sign, but his signature will not come cheap.

Second, despite the pre-draft medical clearance provided by Rangers team physician Dr. Keith Meister and the clean bill of health proffered by noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Lewis Yocum, significant concern lingers with respect to Scheppers' long-term health. On June 18th, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo reported that two teams who had elected to pass on Scheppers believed that he had a 50 percent tear of his right labrum, an injury which would eventually require surgery if truly existent.

The Rangers' level of concern is obviously not commensurate with that of those two unnamed clubs, but the risk factor here is not inconsequential. Neither is the potential, of course, and assuming that Scheppers inks an 11th-hour contract, we could see him assigned to High-A Bakersfield or Double-A Frisco late next month.

 

No. 5: LHP Matt Purke | DoB: 07/17/90 | 6' 3", 180 lb.
Acquired via: 2009 MLB Draft, 1st Round (14th overall)
David: #5 | Trip: #6 | Joey: #5

Pros: Projectable, yet relatively polished prep lefty
Cons: Inconsistent breaking pitches; imperfect mechanics
ETA: 2012

Joey's Comments: Before the Rangers' supplement-round heist of Tanner Scheppers in the 2009 amateur draft came the pilfering of hard-throwing prep left-hander Matt Purke at pick No. 14, producing much elation in Rangers-centric baseball circles as arguably the best southpaw in the entire draft fell into the Rangers' lap amid signability concerns.

From my Day One Rangers draft recap: "Scattered among Purke's quality offerings are his 89-92 mph fastball (which he can ramp up to 94 mph with regularity), thrown from a low three-quarters arm slot which generates sink and adds an element of deception, as well as a slider which Baseball America characterized as "among the best in the prep draft class." Purke also touts a high-70s curveball and seldom-seen change-up, the latter of which is thrown with the classic vulcan-style grip (generating split-finger action), akin to what injured right-hander Eric Hurley previously employed."

Outlook: Purke, like Scheppers, would seem to be a virtual lock to sign with Texas before it's all said and done, although the nature of baseball's slotting process -- and the slashing of recommended signing bonus amounts by 10 percent -- ensures that few, if any, over-slot deals will be announced before August 17th. Based upon media reports which have clarified the extent of the mutual interest between Purke and the Rangers and the tangential association between team president Nolan Ryan and Purke (Ryan's minor league business partner, Don Sanders, owns a 50 percent stake in the Houston-based agency that is currently advising Purke), the Rangers certainly had a pre-draft ballpark figure in mind as far as what Purke was going to demand. This deal will get done, but I suspect there's no real sense of urgency on either side of the bargaining table.

Once Purke does sign, the safe bet is that he will be assigned to Low-A Hickory, presumably joining Martin Perez as the other half of perhaps the single most electrifying sub-20-year-old left-handed pitching tandem in all of professional baseball. 

No. 6: RHP Michael Main | DoB: 12/14/88 | 6′ 1″, 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (24th overall)
54.0 IP, 4-6, 7.33 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 45 K, 36 BB (Bakersfield)
David: #6 | Trip: #8 | Joey: #7

Pros: Explosive arsenal when healthy; ridiculous upside
Cons: Undiagnosed medical condition; limited track record
ETA: 2011

Joey's Comments: Since exploding onto the prospect scene in 2008 with a dominant 58.2-inning swim through the Arizona Rookie League and the Low-A Midwest League (Clinton) and wowing observers with a standout Fall Instructional League performance, things have gone decidedly south for the athletic Floridian fireballer. The virulent combination of the hitter-friendly California League, a homer-friendly home ballpark in Bakersfield and a mysterious ailment that was initially diagnosed as mononucleosis -- a diagnosis which ultimately proved incorrect -- have inflicted measurable harm upon his seasonal pitching line, peripherals (which were absolutely superb one year ago) and standing as a top-tier prospect.

Main possesses a nasty low-to-mid-90s heater, a plus curveball with tight rotation, great mechanics and enviable maturity for his age ... when he's healthy. He's clearly not right now, and as a consequence he's slipped behind some other notable names in the prospect hierarchy, but his prolonged illness hasn't wholly eliminated the potential.

Outlook: As things currently stand, Main is in significant danger of losing the entirety of the 2009 season and perhaps more precious developmental time in the off-season if the etiology of his medical condition isn't soon determined and addressed accordingly. He's talented and polished and driven enough to escalate through the ranks quickly once he gets himself right, but until that transpires, Bakersfield will remain his assigned affiliate ... and Surprise, Arizona will remain his temporary home.

No. 7: OF Julio Borbon | DoB: 02/20/86 | 6′ 1″, 180 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (35th overall)
323 AB, .300/.369/.390, 2 HR, 28 BB, 34 K, 23 SB (Oklahoma City)
David: #8 | Trip: #9 | Joey: #6

Pros: Plus-plus speed; above-average defense in center field
Cons: Limited power projection; still not terribly walk-inclined
ETA: 2009

Joey's Comments: The growing recognition of the importance of defensive value in baseball couldn't be happening at a better time for Borbon, whose game is largely predicated on the virtues of speed and defense. His physical gifts will hopefully render him a permanent fixture in center field for the Rangers over the next several years, for the glovework goes a long way towards compensating for his below-average offensive projection. Borbon has honed his plate discipline and improved his basestealing efficiency, but he remains a contact-first hitter first and foremost, one whose value will always rely heavily upon his batting average to a significant degree, and that will be a difficult label to shed.

Outlook: Says Trip of Borbon: "Think Jacoby Ellsbury with a little less speed and fewer walks." I'm inclined to agree, for the most part, and with Texas clearly itching to protect Josh Hamilton and slash his playing time in center field, Borbon will soon enough have his window to prove himself in the majors over an extended period of time.

No. 8: RHP Wilmer Font | DoB: 05/24/90 | 6′ 4″, 235 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2006)
57.1 IP, 5-1, 3.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 61 K, 33 BB (Hickory)
David: #9 | Trip: #7 | Joey: #8

Pros: Devastating fastball; enormous projection
Cons: Command/control issues; still a raw commodity
ETA: 2012

Joey's Comments: Font's full-season debut has been a rousing success by any measure, primarily because he has pitched healthy and has begun to convert that stratospheric potential into quantifiable results. His fastball, which reportedly sits in the mid-90s and occasionally flirts with triple digits, is a potential plus-plus pitch, and his power breaking ball flashes considerable promise, although neither pitch is yet thrown with refined command; then again, he's 19 years old. Much like Feliz, Font's tremendous velocity comes easily and naturally, delivered from a three-quarters arm slot.

Outlook: Font's progressively falling month-to-month walk rates would seem to indicate that the big Venezuelan flamethrower is trending in the right direction control-wise, but inconsistencies in his repertoire still need to be hammered out. His development is not remotely close to being finished, and given the attrition rate of young pitchers it's entirely possible that he'll never throw a single pitch in the majors, but his limitless potential enables us to sit back and dream about what he might still become.

No. 9: RHP Tommy Hunter | DoB: 07/03/86 | 6′ 3″, 255 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (54th overall)
71 IP, 4-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 51 K, 20 BB (Frisco, Oklahoma City)

David: #16 | Trip: #5 | Joey: #10

Pros: Plus curveball; workhorse body
Cons: Lacks projection
ETA: 2009

Joey's Comments: Brandishing a much-improved change-up and a brand-new cutter, Hunter's major league performance in 2009 has prompted some to revise their projections of what he might ultimately develop into. He's currently pitching at a level above and beyond that which his back-of-the-rotation label would imply, thanks in large part to an expanded repertoire that still prominently features his legitimate plus curveball (which stands as one of the best secondary pitches on the major league roster), as well as his inherent strike zone-pounding tendencies.

Outlook: Until the day arrives when the Rangers have too much viable major league pitching on their hands (the Earth will, in all likelihood, fall out of orbit on that same day), Hunter will continue to serve an important role in the organization's long-term plans; pitching injuries are going to happen and sturdy sixth and seventh starters are immensely valuable for this exact reason, as few, if any, Opening Day starting rotations remain perfectly intact through Game 162, and it was in fact a sudden rash of rotation injuries that enabled Hunter to turn some heads on the big stage. Hunter will likely never anchor a rotation, but he might well carve out a respectable major league career for himself.

No. 10: RHP Blake Beavan | DoB: 01/17/89 | 6′ 7″, 250 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (17th overall)
108.0 IP, 6-6, 4.83 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 65 K, 20 BB (Bakersfield, Frisco)
David: #12 | Trip: #11 | Joey: #9

Pros: Big, durable frame; excellent fastball command
Cons: Middling velocity; unspectacular secondary pitches
ETA: 2011

Joey's Comments: While his standing as one of the more polarizing Rangers pitching prospects of this decade has already long since been cemented, buzz alone doesn't make you great. The Rangers have challenged their 20-year-old hurler by pushing him all the way to Double-A Frisco, where he has maintained his excellent control against more advanced competition, and both his strikeout and ground out rates have improved since last season, but reports widely vary on the quality of his stuff; his high-80s two-seam fastball has gone into hibernation while Beavan works exclusively with a low-90s four-seam fastball, and while his circle change-up evokes some optimism, his slider draws decidedly more mixed reviews.

Outlook: Beavan's upside still appears to be that of a durable, innings-eating middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he's still plenty young enough that he can take that necessary step forward with his repertoire, but the clock's ticking.

No. 11: C/DH Max Ramirez | DoB: 10/11/84 | 5′ 11″, 175 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for OF Kenny Lofton (07/27/07)
214 AB, .238/.308/.332, 3 HR, 20 BB, 67 K, 0 SB (Oklahoma City)
David: #7 | Trip: #16 | Joey: #12

Pros: Good power/patience combination; great pure hitter
Cons: Limited defensively; 2009 performance sapped by injuries
ETA: - - -

Comments/Outlook: "Wrist problems have really hurt Ramirez. A tricky injury for anyone swinging a bat." (TS) ... "Ramirez looks more comfortable this year blocking pitches in the dirt. The strength and accuracy of his arm remain below average." (DB) ... "Major lost opportunity for Ramirez in 2009 with both Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden struggling offensively in the majors." (JM)

No. 12: RHP Omar Poveda | DoB: 09/28/87 | 6′ 4″, 200 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2004)
79.1 IP, 8-4, 3.52 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 42 K, 29 BB (Arizona, Frisco, Oklahoma City)
David: #17 | Trip: #10 | Joey: #13

Pros: Plus-plus change-up; strike-throwing tendencies
Cons: Plummeting strikeout rates
ETA: 2011

Comments/Outlook: "Throwing three quality pitches right now; needs consistency." (TS) ... "Poveda is morphing from a fly ball pitcher (42 percent ground balls to 43 percent fly balls in 2006-2008) into a ground ball pitcher (50 percent ground balls to 33 percent fly balls in 2009)." (DB) ... "Poveda's change-up is truly special and the curveball is improving, but he's at mild risk of being surpassed on the organizational prospect ladder." (JM)

No. 13: RHP Joseph Wieland | DoB: 01/21/90 | 6' 3", 175 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 4th Round (123rd overall)
43.2 IP, 5-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 41 K, 8 BB (Hickory)
David: #11 | Trip: #19 | Joey: #11

Pros: Above-average potential; great pitchability
Cons: Still working on his consistency
ETA: 2012

Comments/Outlook: "Continues to show great command with 31 strikeouts against only six walks in 31 innings." (TS) ... "Features three above-average pitches and exhibits unusually good control for a 19-year-old." (DB) ... "Aggressive strike-thrower with indomitable mound demeanor, clean mechanics and room to add velocity; he, along with Neftali Feliz, has become one of team president Nolan Ryan's pet projects." (JM) ... "A ground-to-fly out ratio above 1.00 is considered good. Wieland's ratios in his first two years have been 1.13 and 1.40." (DB)

No. 14: LHP Kasey Kiker | DoB: 11/19/87 | 5′ 10″, 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 1st Round (12th overall)
121.2 IP, 5-5, 4.73 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 111 K, 37 BB (Bakersfield)
David: #13 | Trip: #15 | Joey: #16

Pros: Intriguing secondary pitches; serviceable fastball
Cons: Undersized; questionable projection
ETA: 2011

Comments/Outlook: "Has been working at 86-89 mph with fastball. Curveball and change-up are very promising." (TS) ... "Kiker is among the best pitchers in the Texas League despite being one of its youngest. His strikeout rate has been excellent; his walk rate has been disappointing." (DB)

No. 15: LHP Robbie Ross | DoB: 06/24/89 | 6' 0", 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 2nd Round (57th overall)
25.1 IP, 2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 39 K, 6 BB (Spokane)
David: #10 | Trip: #17 | Joey: #18

Pros: Improving arsenal; great character
Cons: Limited statistical record; high school pitcher flameout rate
ETA: 2012

Comments/Outlook: "Currently destroying the Northwest League. South Atlantic League soon to follow?" (TS) ... "Scouting reports from last year indicated that Ross has excellent control; the six walks that he’s issued in five games support those claims." (DB) ... "Said Indians catcher Vincent DiFazio recently: "[Ross] really pounded the zone. His fastball has some electricity behind it that I haven't seen in a long time, and I've been catching a lot of years. His slider was breaking sharp, and his change-up was in the zone and dropping off the table." (DB)

No. 16: RHP Wilfredo Boscan | DoB: 10/26/89 | 6′ 2″, 160 lb.
Acquired via: International free agency (2006)
69.1 IP, 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 70 K, 11 BB
David: #15 | Trip: #18 | Joey: #14

Pros: Excellent command; solid grounder-inducing two-seam fastball
Cons: Plummeting strikeout rates; limited projection?
ETA: 2012

Comments/Outlook: "Knows how to pitch, might not have the stuff to succeed at higher levels." (TS) "Outstanding control and above-average secondary pitches allow Boscan to be effective without an over-powering fastball." (DB) ... "Curveball and change-up both earn plaudits; the real question is, will he add more velocity as he fills out?" (JM) ... "One of the youngest pitchers in the South Atlantic League." (DB)

No. 17: RHP Guillermo Moscoso | DoB: 11/14/83 | 6′ 1″, 165 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for C Gerald Laird (December 2008)
68.1 IP, 6-2, 3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 55 K, 18 BB (Frisco, Oklahoma City)
David: #19 | Trip: #14 | Joey: #17

Pros: Deceptive, heavy low-90s fastball that misses bats; quality command
Cons: Past injury problems; fly ball-inclined; future reliever?
ETA: 2009

Comments/Outlook: "Solid strikeout rates alongside outstanding control suggest that Moscoso has the stuff to be a league-average or better starting pitcher. His injury history and consistent old-for-league performances suggest that he is likely better suited for the bullpen." (DB) ... "Magical low-90s fastball evades bats, but probably a bullpen arm at the major league level." (TS)

No. 18: OF Engel Beltre | DoB: 11/01/89 | 6′ 1″, 169 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for RHP Eric Gagne (07/31/07)
352 AB, .219/.274/.304, 3 HR, 17 BB, 77 K, 16 SB (Bakersfield)
David: #21 | Trip: #13 | Joey: #15

Pros: Five-tool skill set; immensely talented
Cons: Lacks good plate approach; bust potential
ETA: 2012

Comments/Outlook: "Has all the tools needed to be a star, but development has been slow." (TS) ... "Great athlete with the intelligence and drive to be great ... Walk rate has improved from last year (6.6 percent vs. 3.8 percent), though his strikeout rate has also increased (23 percent vs. 18 percent)." (DB) ... "Quite young for his league and brimming with all the tools necessary to become a major league superstar, but one would certainly like to see the bat start to come around." (JM)

No. 19: OF Mitch Moreland | DoB: 09/06/85 | 6' 2", 230 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 17th Round (530th overall)
466 AB, .324/.400/.536, 18 HR, 60 BB, 67 K, 2 SB (Frisco)
David: #14 | Trip: #23 | Joey: #21

Pros: Great power potential; excellent arm
Cons: Limited defensively; needs to continue being challenged
ETA: 2011
Sensational MLB Comp: Geoff Jenkins

Comments/Outlook: "No real questions about his bat, but where does he fit on a major league team?" (TS) ... "Moreland has managed the biggest jump in the minors with aplomb (.335/.391/.484 in 182 AA-ball at-bats) and is now beginning to receive national recognition." (DB)

No. 20: RHP Pedro Strop | DoB: 06/13/85 | 6' 0", 160 lb.
42 IP, 2-3, 5.51 ERA, 34 K, 21 BB (Frisco, Oklahoma City)
David: #30 | Trip: #12 | Joey: #19

Pros: Lively mid-90s fastball; plus slider
Cons: Substantial injury risk
ETA: 2010

Comments/Outlook: "Throws three insane pitches, but mechanics will limit him to a late-inning role." (TS) ... "Sometimes spectacularly good, other times spectacularly bad, Strop is almost never boring." (DB)

No. 21: OF Tim Smith | DoB: 06/14/86 | 6' 3", 225 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 7th Round (230th overall)
259 AB, .320/.395/.456, 7 HR, 24 BB, 41 K, 15 SB (Bakersfield, Frisco)
David: #22 | Trip: #22 | Joey: #20

Pros: Professional hitter; above-average speed
Cons: Questionable offensive projection; below-average arm
ETA: 2011

Comments/Outlook: "Lots of skill on offense and defense, has more power to tap into." (TS) ... "Performance has improved every year (.779 OPS in 2007, .809 OPS in 2008, .867 OPS in 2009) ... Slugging percentage and walk rate are average at best, meaning OPS is primarily driven by high batting average." (DB)

No. 22: OF Greg Golson | DoB: 09/17/85 | 6' 0", 190 lb.
Acquired via: Trade for OF John Mayberry (11/20/08)
288 AB, .278/.326/.368, 1 HR, 22 BB, 74 K, 10 SB (Oklahoma City)
David: #26 | Trip: #20 | Joey: #22

Pros: Five-tool skill set; unparalleled athleticism
Cons: Significant bust potential; marked lack of polish
ETA: 2010

Comments/Outlook: "Former first-round pick still has the impressive tools, but they could use some more sharpening." (TS) ... "In a Baseball Time in Arlington interview with ESPN.com's Keith Law back in February, Law asserted that he had "never seen a first-rounder with less feel for the game than Golson has"; most, if not all indications are pointing towards a future fifth outfielder." (JM)

No. 23: OF Mike Bianucci | DoB: 06/26/86 | 6' 1", 225 lb.
Acquired via: 2008 MLB Draft, 8th Round (243rd overall)
290 AB, .314/.381/.559, 15 HR, 26 BB, 63 K, 8 SB (Hickory, Bakersfield)
David: #23 | Trip: -- | Joey: #24

Pros: Athletic outfielder with untapped power potential
Cons: Still playing in A-ball at 23; tools may not be good enough
ETA: 2011

Comments/Outlook: "Clearly facing inferior competition, will be easier to judge at a higher level (maybe not until he reaches AA-ball)." (TS) ... "Iffy walk-to-strikeout ratios don't inspire great confidence." (JM)

No. 24: RHP Warner Madrigal | DoB: 03/21/84 | 6' 0", 200 lb.
Acquired via: Minor league free agency (11/18/07)
31.2 IP, 2-0, 1.71 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 31 K, 8 BB
David: #18 | Trip: -- | Joey: #23

Pros: Solid fastball/slider combination; room to improve
Cons: Has struggled in brief major league duty
ETA: 2009

Comments/Outlook: "Madrigal has been a different pitcher in the majors and minors this year (10.12 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9 in 8.0 ML innings vs. 1.71 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9 in 27.2 AAA innings). The disparity likely derives from small sample sizes and the nature of pitching out of the bullpen, though it is worth noting that Madrigal has been less effective in the multi-inning appearances that his major league role requires than in the single inning appearances that define his minor league experience." (DB)

No. 25: 3B Johnny Whittleman | DoB: 02/11/87 | 6' 2", 195 lb.
Acquired via: 2005 MLB Draft, 2nd Round (67th overall)
257 AB, .230/.362/.374, 6 HR, 54 BB, 58 K, 1 SB (Frisco)
David: -- | Trip: #24 | Joey: --

Comments/Outlook: "Really hitting the ball with authority again. Extremely prolonged slump holds his ranking back." (TS)

[On The Radar (in no particular order): C Manny Pina, RHP Neil Ramirez, IF Marcus Lemon, OF Miguel Velazquez, LHP Edwin Escobar, C Tomas Telis, RHP Miguel De Los Santos, OF Craig Gentry, RHP Matt Thompson, LHP Michael Kirkman, RHP Richard Alvarez, RHP Ryan Tatusko, LHP Tim Murphy, RHP Eric Hurley, IF Jose Vallejo]

Reader Comments (17)

Glad I'm not the only one who still thinks Main belongs up there.

July 15, 2009 at 6:43 AM | Unregistered Commentert ball

Who are the guys that just missed the rankings?

July 15, 2009 at 6:57 AM | Unregistered Commentert ball

Excellent stuff! Finally some sanity on Beltre. I am surprised the ETA on Scheppers is 2011. While I don't believe he could pitch in the MLs now as some national analyst suggested, I could see him as a Sept 2010 call up. What are the odds of him getting a ML deal?

July 15, 2009 at 8:51 AM | Unregistered Commenterrob m

I only have 1 coment; Warner Madrigal listed at 200 lbs... c'mon! He has to be pushing 230-240 lbs... easily.
I'm also a bit suprised at Kiker's rating. The kid has risen to the competition and seems to be fiery! He may just make a bunch of people (so called experts) look downright silly when he's a #2 or #3 starting pitcher. Sometimes heart and soul overcomes "stuff"... and Kiker looks like a fighter to me.

July 15, 2009 at 9:25 AM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

I really hope they sign Purke and Scheppers, that could be huge.

I, like Pabloesque, think Kiker should be higher. He was a first round pick and is still young while excelling in AA, but he feels like a "sleeper" for some reason. I think he could be a big part of a great rotation some day in the not so distant future.

July 15, 2009 at 9:36 AM | Unregistered CommenterRocky

I think we need to hear more on the Michael Main medical situation. Are the Rangers sending him to specialist after specialist? What are they saying? How does he currently feel?

July 15, 2009 at 12:41 PM | Unregistered CommenterRockwall Tim

Rockwall: MJH over at InsideCorner says that Main's season is over and he has been sent home to FL. He could return to Surprise in August.

July 15, 2009 at 2:30 PM | Unregistered Commenterrob m

JM, you have an extra line of stats on Golson.

July 15, 2009 at 2:32 PM | Unregistered CommenterRodney

Damn. That must have taken a while to put together. I agree on Main -- a player who some had ranked higher than Feliz this time last year. I understand why he's not in the top five, but it seems like a lot of people are underestimating just how good he can be if healthy.

July 15, 2009 at 2:37 PM | Unregistered Commenteregriffey

The Nooch is in Bakersfield now, isn't he?

July 15, 2009 at 2:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterParman

Sorry for the late reply - sometimes work gets in the way of one's fun.

t ball and egriffy- I can only speak for myself, but Main's ceiling did not change with his performance this year. He still remains a potential #1/#2 regardless of his troubles in the Cal League. I've posted this elsewhere, but pichers like Main and Murphy who rely on curveballs tend to have more pronounced problems in Bakersfield than pitchers whose secondary pitch is a slider or change-up. Even if Main's numbers this year were not tainted by his medical condition, I think that his stuff will really play up once he gets to Frisco.

tball - The five who just missed the cut were Ramirez (Neil), Pina, Tatusko, Velazquez, and Lemon. On my own Top 25 list, I had Ramirez, Pina, and Lemon edging out Strop, Golson, and Whittleman.

Rob - Regarding Scheppers, I suspect that he doesn't pitch this season and begins next year in A+. He could see action out of the Rangers' bullpen in 2010, but I suspect that it is going to take a while for him to shake off the rust and improve his control to the point that he can compete in the majors. I hope that he does not receive a major league deal and that he hits the major league rotation in early 2011.

Pablo and Rocky - Trip and I will hopefully have a Prospect Analysis on Kiker coming out soon. My stat/comparables-based analysis of Kiker projects him to be a mid-rotation pitcher in the major leagues. I am anxious to see what Trip's scouting-heavy approach suggests.

July 15, 2009 at 2:59 PM | Unregistered Commenterdavid

Joey mentioned Prospect Tiers in the introduction. Personally, I find it more useful to bucket prospects than to rank them. My general take on the Rangers prospects is provided below. Hopefully, this will provide a conversation starter:

A-/Five Star/All-Star Potential
Smoak
Feliz
Perez
Scheppers

B+/Four Star/Fringe All-Star Potential
Purke
Main
Font
MaxRam

B/Three Star/Above Average Potential
Borbon
Ross

B-/Two Star/Average Potential
Hunter
Beavan
Kiker
Poveda
Wieland
Moscoso
Boscan
Madrigal
Beltre

C+/One Star/Likely Major Leaguers
Moreland
Pina
Smith
Lemon
Golson
Strop

Guys who are likely to move up a level (or two) with more playing time?
Purke
Ross
Font
Beltre

Players who are expected to have a C+ or better grade by this time next year?
Velazquez
Escobar
Tullis
Murphy (Tim)
Telis
Miguel de los Santos
Pimental
Thompson

July 15, 2009 at 3:24 PM | Unregistered Commenterdavid

How do you project Vin DeFazio? Solid draft pick-up, and came out smoking the ball in Spokane. Does he project at all, or is he an organizational guy?

July 15, 2009 at 5:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterSam Morton

Why did you guys include players who have not yet played any professional ball, and include a couple, who if fact, may not even sigh with the Rangers?

July 15, 2009 at 6:22 PM | Unregistered CommenterBobby in Bryan

Sam - With all of the young pitchers that the Rangers are bringing into the system, the organization seems intent on bringing in veteran catchers with good character and strong leadership skills. Despite his good numbers thus far, it would be an upset if Difazio turned out to be more than an org guy.

Bobby - We discussed whether to include Purke and Scheppers in the ranking. I argued for including the unsigned draft picks since they are currently the Rangers' property and I would be surprised if they don't sign with the team.

July 15, 2009 at 9:02 PM | Unregistered Commenterdavid

The way Blake Beaven is pitching is a case to be talked about. He is not a flick in the wind, He is the guy that will fight to improve, lead a team and push them to become the best they can be. He loves the game and he loves to win. He is a true player and will be in the starting rotation latter part of 2010 AL beware he is a "diamond in the rough"!! GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!

July 31, 2009 at 8:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterJohnosu11

Mitch is a great player .I've known him most of my life.The need to get him on the majors roster quick.Some other teams would kill for his talent

September 23, 2009 at 10:13 PM | Unregistered CommenterTommy

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