Professor Parks's Top 35 Rangers Prospect Rankings
Martin Perez - Photo courtesy of Scott LucasIn my opinion, the Rangers system is made up of several tiers. The first tier houses prospects like Justin Smoak and Martin Perez, guys that usually find their way onto most Top 100 lists. The second tier is usually for guys who don't quite have first tier ceilings, but still possess immense skill sets and are often mentioned as having major league futures.
The third tier is a long queue of interchangeable prospects that could swap spots depending on a hot streak, promotion, or just gut feeling. These players could evolve into a higher echelon of prospect or they could eventually fade into the attritional fog. Fourth tier players usually have major question marks surrounding their prospect status, either as a result of a limited professional record, age (young/old), and/or skill set translations.
1. 1B Justin Smoak
Justin Smoak is clearly one of the best position prospects in all of baseball. His combination of patience and power potential could make him a devastating hitter in the middle of a major league line-up. His defense has been a bit of a disappointment so far, but given his work ethic, he should eventually be an above-average defensive first-baseman at the highest level.
2. RHP Neftali Feliz
Feliz still has one of the best fastballs in professional baseball. His comps, while still not where they need to be to find continued success at the major league level, have shown signs of improvement. Now pitching out of the pen, Feliz should see Arlington before August, with hopes that his improved fastball command makes the trip with him.
3. LHP Martin Perez
Perez has surpassed all the expectations I had for his '09 season. His stuff continues to improve and his maturity on and off the field only further highlight how remarkable this 18-year-old Venezuelan really is. Perez is the Elvis Andrus of the mound and will probably see major league action before his 21st birthday.
4. RHP Tanner Scheppers*
The 6'4'' righty with a major league fastball was a steal for the Rangers with the 44th pick in the 2009 draft. Scheppers comes with a hefty price tag and some medical concerns, but if healthy, he has the potential to develop into a very good major league pitcher.
5. LHP Matthew Purke*
Projectable southpaw with top of the rotation stuff, 18-year-old Matthew Purke was the 14th overall selection in the 2009 draft. From a three-quarter release he fires low-to-mid-90s heat that has the potential to develop into a plus-plus pitch. His breaking ball isn't consistent, but certainly a pitch that has flashed plus potential, and I've heard encouraging reports about his change-up.
6. RHP Wilmer Font
Font's fastball, while not nearly as effortless as Feliz's, might be every bit as good. His comps are slowly working their way into shape, although he still has a considerable amount of progress to make. His command isn't there yet, but considering Font lost most of the 2008 season to injuries and issues, his development is on course. Font is setting himself up to explode as a prospect in 2010, where he will most likely begin the season in the High A rotation, pitching as a 19-year-old
7. RHP Michael Main
I know, I know. How can I possibly rank Main this high after the season he has had? Well, that's easy for me to answer: Stuff. It's true that Main has suffered through another season full of setbacks, but that doesn't alter his potential, in my opinion. When healthy, Main possesses a lighting quick arm that generates low-mid 90s heat, that can be very difficult for right-handed batters to handle. His curveball, a pitch that has flashed plus potential and will eventually grade out that high, has stumbled this season, along with everything else in Main's arsenal. Assuming Main comes back healthy, his rise up the system is not going to be a stop-a-year, slow-burn situation. If he does indeed come back at 100 percent, Main has the stuff to move quickly.
8. RHP Blake Beavan
I wasn't sure where/how to rank Beavan. There are days that I think he will be an innings eating horse that provides value at the back of a major league rotation, and then there are days when I think his arsenal isn't going to be enough to have sustained success at that level. As it stands now, Beavan's stuff isn't good enough. I think his fastball can play in the low-90s -- assuming it actually can sit there -- thanks in part to his exceptional command of the pitch. His change-up has potential (I actually like this pitch quite a bit), but his slider is not a major league-quality pitch. He is still very young and he still has time to improve, but with 200-plus minor league innings already under his belt, I would have hoped to see his once electric stuff start to make a spark.
9. OF Julio Borbon
Borbon is going to be a fantastic defensive outfielder at the major league level. Unfortunately, Borbon is probably not going to be a fantastic hitter at the major league level. He is going to make good contact, which should eventually allow him to hit in the .285-.300 range, and his 70--grade speed will make him a force on the bases, but don't expect much power production from Borbon. Assuming he can reach base at a 35 percent clip (which I think might be a stretch), Borbon could be a long-term starter for the Texas Rangers. If his bat doesn't offer much at the next level, his defense and speed will still make him a valuable player to have on the 25-man roster.
10. RHP Joseph Wieland
Follow me: Wieland's raw stuff isn't great, but it's good, but it could eventually end up better than just good, but still probably not great, but thanks to his pitchability, it might appear great, when it's only really good. Got it? Good.
11. RHP Wilfredo Boscan: Incredible fastball command and change-up are strong suits. He just needs time to develop as a pitcher.
12. OF Engel Beltre: Gifted outfielder will need more time to refine his tools. He will play the entire 2010 season at age 20. His future is still very bright.
13. RHP Tommy Hunter: Big framed pitcher with excellent curveball and ability to throw strikes. Might end up in the back of a rotation with new cutter and more effective change-up.
14. RHP Omar Poveda: Tall righty with improving curveball and Bugs Bunny change-up. Will need to continue to refine his command to find success at the major league level.
15. LHP Kasey Kiker: Diminutive southpaw with good comps, but a shrinking fastball. Seems destined for the pen.
16. C Max Ramirez: Injuries have sapped Max in '09. If healthy, he should once again become a name to throw into the 25-man mix.
17. LHP Robbie Ross: Filthy stuff from the 5' 11'' fireballer; velo reports have him sitting in the low-90s with the ability to go get more when necessary and a nasty slider.
18. RHP Guillermo Moscoso: The slender fastball wizard with low-90s velocity and video game movement to go along with impressive command. His comps have improved, but his fastball alone will make him a very good bullpen arm.
19. RHP Carlos Pimentel: Underrated pitcher with solid, yet unspectacular stuff across the board. He doesn't turn 20 until December and still has physical projection.
20. OF/1B Mitch Moreland: Light-tower power, but limited on defense and questions about how his swing will translate against major league quality pitching.
21. RHP Neil Ramirez: The oft-injured righty still has great raw stuff, but lacks the consistency and polish to put it all together. Ramirez is in danger of getting swallowed up by the depth of the system.
22. RHP Pedro Strop: Electric stuff but has mechanical issues that would make B.J. Ryan uncomfortable (okay, they aren't that bad). Strop has the stuff to be an elite bullpen arm if he can put it all together and remain clean in the process.
23. RHP Warner Madrigal: Madrigal still has an excellent fastball/slider combo and will continue to improve as he gains more experience. Don't forget, he is still relatively new to pitching. His raw stuff allowed him to advanced faster than people expected and it most certainly affected his development as a pitcher.
24. OF Tim Smith: Interesting player. I think Smith is a bit of a tweener; his glove isn't good enough for center field and his bat isn't good enough for a corner. Some will argue that his bat will eventually play at a major league corner, and I think that is entirely possible if he continues to improve at this rate. That said, I just don't see Smith being an everyday player at the major league level. His hit tool is very good and he has some power potential, but the full package just isn't there.
25. LHP Michael Kirkman: Limited ceiling, but has the stuff to start.
26. OF Mike Bianucci: I need to see him at higher levels before I jump on the bandwagon. Solid athlete with power, but I'm not sure if the tools will be strong enough to play as he climbs.
27. RHP Braden Tullis: Sleeper prospect from '09 draft. Pay attention to this kid!
28. RHP Matt Thompson: Young arm with huge curveball and improving heater.
29. LHP Edwin Escobar: Projectable lefty with a 12.75 K/9 in his first 12 AZL innings. This kid has serious potential. Did I mention he was 17?
30. C Manny Pina: Good defensive catcher whose bat isn't as good as people think.
31. OF Greg Golson: Best athlete in the system; Golson has the tools to be a superstar, but the chances of that happening are very slim. Would make an excellent 5th outfielder for most teams in baseball.
32. RHP Fabio Castillo: Power righty whose stuff is finally starting to blossom out of the pen.
33. C Tomas Telis: Switch hitting catcher with contact ability and pop in his bat.
34. RHP Richard Alvarez: 16-year-old Venezuelan with developing stuff and excellent make-up.; currently pitching in the AZL.
35. OF Miguel Velazquez: Toolsy outfielder playing developmental catch-up.
[Baseball Time in Arlington's in-depth composite Top 25 mid-season prospect rankings will drop next Monday morning. Stay tuned.]
35 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (35)
Awesome.
Where's Marcus Lemon - he of the .297 BA and .363 OBP in Frisco at age 21? He should at least be above Golson and Pina.
Kristen: I'm sure a case could be made for Lemon in the top 35. That can be said about a lot of players I didn't include like Vallejo, Gentry, Phillips, Young, etc. The system is just too deep and too talented to include them all. Feel free to post your own list with explanations. I tend to value pitchers more than hitters and I usually prefer ultimate ceilings to realistic floors.
I might have Telis higher than Pina as soon as I here a positive report on his progress at catcher. Your top 7 are the same as my personal list, then I have Borbon above Beavan.
Tullis is indeed looking like a steal, 22 - 1 K-BB so far, with ground balls looking good, too.
How much attention should we pay to Tanner Roark? I've never been too excited about him, but he's doing well in Bakersfield. Will his stuff play at higher levels?
t ball: Roark has good stuff, but it's not great, so I want to see how he handles AA before getting too excited about him. I usually dont get excited about High A relievers unless they have exceptional stuff.
Love the exclusion of Mendonca and inclusion of Tullis. I was high on Tullis coming into the draft, and I thought he was a steal. Erlin's a kid who could be on this list if he signs soon and gets some minor league time before the season's up. I'm intrigued by Justin Jamison, too.
Andy: Definitely agree on Erlin. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch.
What's your thoughts on Robbie Ross vs. Kasey Kiker, JP? I see you've got Ross a couple spots below Kasey still, despite all the hype he's generating right now and the discouraging reports on Kiker's fastball this year.
Care to elaborate?
I'd like to personally thank Joey, David, and Trip for the opportunity to drop my own prospect list before their much anticipated top 25 comes out next week. I've been traveling non-stop, so my window of opportunity to post and answer questions is limited. Thanks, fellas.
I'll be around most of the day today, and all of tomorrow, so if you have any questions or comments, I'd love to read them. As usual, I can always be contacted via email @ zdar80@yahoo.com or via IM at (AOL) jasonparks77. I also give sporadic scouting updates on twitter: The_Jason_Parks.
Jon: Kiker is still a very good pitcher. His velocity has been an issue, but he is still young and has already had success at the AA level. Ross might have the new car smell, but his professional record is limited.
Jason- If you look at the current stats at Bakersfield, you'll notice that Richard Bleier and Blake Beavan [when he was there} are almost exactly the same-with Bleier's slightly better statistically.Yet Beavan is ranked eighth and Bleier is unranked. Yes, I realize that the velocity isn't there for Bleier, but everything else is- superior command, control, ground ball success, etc. Care to comment?
A guy I don't see in your ranking is Miguel de los Santos, whose stats out of the Dominican are staggering. Is there just not enough info out there yet on Santos and is he going to have to come to the States before he starts showing up on lists?
Larry: Bleier is a decent minor league pitcher, but his ceiling is really quite limited. His stuff will struggle to play at the higher levels.
Kent: De Los Santos had a very promising '08 campaign in the AZL and I pegged him as a breakout candidate for '09. He is currently stuck in the DR facing inferior competition, but should return to the States soon to pick up where he left off in '08. He is a guy with an improving fastball and a wicked curve.
Why do you hate Zach Phillips?
Thanks for the rankings here, Jason.
Surprised to see Blake so high. Just via comments on LSB from Frisco attendees, I got the impression Poveda was ahead of him, and probably Kiker too. Kiker's trending better right now, and then Omar has the crazy change. And then I read your post about Blake's Corpus start.
Is he #8 today because of his chances of regaining velocity? Or can he really just refine what he has right now, decent velo with great command, and succeed?
Martin is looking like lightning in a bottle, while Wilmer may never command his awesome raw heat...based on Blake's age, and his high school profile, and the level he's hit at 20 years old, sometimes I think he's the guy everyone's really got their fingers crossed for.
With the 15M loan from MLB, I doubt Bud Selig would let the Rangers sign Purke and Scheppers for over slot money, something both of them demand. It's not out of the realm of possibility that neither sign. Of course, the Rangers would get picks in next years draft as compensation.
What are your thoughts on Guillermo Pimentel? MJH really likes him.
Hightower: Blake's age, pitchability, and once electric stuff keep me intrigued enough to rank him at #8. He needs more consistency with his comps, and I'd love to see his fastball have a little more spice, but he certainly has the fastball command to build around. Effectiveness in AA isnt a pathway to effectiveness at the major league level. His stuff needs to improve. If it does, Beavan has rotation horse written all over him.
Kinslerhomer: I like him. He could have easily placed on the list. In fact, I originally had him at #33, but I wanted to showcase Telis. He's definitely a player to watch.
Do you like your job?
How close was Eric Hurley to making the list? Was he ignored because he's been injured all year?
YourNameHere: I didn't even think about Hurley. I would definitely need to see him healthy before I attempting to rank him.
Borbon has been touted as the Rangers' CFer of the future. However, if his bat doesn't do much but take up the 9 spot should we really stop looking for a CFer in 2010 and beyond? Plus I haven't heard anything on his throwing arm strength. Does he have a noodle arm as I've heard or is it acceptable enough to not notice a below average capability?
I guess I need my Borbon skepticims soothed a bit.
Also Weiland-Hunter look like a great duo to eat some innings at the back of the rotation. Valuable commodities to have fo' sho.
And as always...GREAT list, Prof!
Bugs Bunny change up. What a great phrase.
Thanks. I always love reading your insights.
Hypo-Luxa: Borbon's arm is probably just a little below league average. It might play up a bit thanks to his ability to transition from glove to hand smoothly and get into throwing position quickly. His arm shouldn't be a major issue. His defensive range will more than make up for any deficiencies in his arm.
I think Borbon has a very good chance of sticking in a starting line-up. His bat isnt great, but should still have value, even if he hits 9th in the order. If his bat is terrible and the Rangers' offense needs more meat in the starting line-up, I can see him becoming a terrific 4th. Still, I'd rather sacrifice some offense to improve my up the middle defense. Borbon will be an excellent defensive CF.
I'm switching gears here and going back to the Halladay thing. Check this out: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/07/10/halladay.update/1.html
Is Tom Hicks truly that broke? Are the Rangers finances so bad that they couldn't pull off a trade like this?
5 yrs ago Hicks wouldv'e been all over this... and he wouldv'e been willing to take on Wells contract to boot.
This sucks... I'm worried about this team's future.
Is Cuban a viable option here...? Could he buy the team... would MLB let him buy the team? Do we want him to buy the team... (I say hell yes).
Would love for Cuban and Ryan to purchase and run the Rangers.
Great write up as always Jason!
I know he's probably way too young to do this to, but any Martin Perez comps that come to mind for you?
Salman: Erik Bedard.
No mention of former DVD member Tom Diamond. Comment?
Remarks52: I dont think Diamond is a top 35 prospect in this system. I think he is a 26 year-old reliever with continued issues with command. It would be a different story if his stuff was still electric, but it really isnt. I'm still a huge fan of Diamond the person, but not so much Diamond the prospect.
I don't understand the disconnect between Tommy Hunter and Blake Beavan.
Seems to me that Beavan would need a lot of things to come together over the next year or two to be at the level that Hunter is at right now.
Does Beavan have enough projection that we can expect him to exceed what Hunter is already doing? Or do you think Hunter is getting by with smoke and mirrors and will come crashing back to earth?
^^ Excellent Question
I've been wondering the same, especially with the community picks going on.
Tricer: Yes, Beavan has pitched the entire season as a 20 year-old and has a slightly higher ceiling than Hunter, in my opinion. I like Hunter and I'm certainly excited to see his current major league performance, but I'm also aware of his minor league track record and his stuff.
Beavan still has a long way to go (and his development can be maddeningly frustrating to witness), but I think he still has the raw stuff to surpass my often cynical expectations. Ranking Beavan was very hard for that specific reason. I know he still has the juice to be more than just effective.
Not much really separates these guys in my opinion, but based on age, and upside potential, I think Beavan is the superior prospect for 2009. I think that he still has a few years to surpass the Tommy Hunters of the world. What's funny is that people seem to forget that Hunter was average at best in the minors this season before getting his call-up. I hope the cutter and change make him a long-term fixture, because the team needs consistency, but I think its a little too early in Hunter's major league career to assume he is going to continue to pitch at this level.
nothing about yoon-hee nam?
He's having an outstanding season for hickory..Would love to hear something about his stuff.
Also Zach Phillips has an era under 1.00,he should be on that list.