Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels (left) and scouting director Ron Hopkins (right) introduce 2008 first-round selection Justin Smoak on August 16th, 2008.The Rule 4 draft in baseball is the least hyped among those used to divvy up amateur talent among major sports teams. Unlike football, basketball and hockey fans, most baseball fans pay little or no attention to the draft because most draftees fail to become major league players and those who do usually require 2-5 years to navigate baseball's minor league development system. For the obsessive few, however, the day of the MLB Draft is one of the more exciting days of the year since it provides teams with an annual opportunity to upgrade their farm systems and provide hope for the future.

For those of you who do obsess, the following is a brief review of the impact that the modern-day amateur draft has on major league baseball teams.

ELITE PLAYERS AND DRAFT POSITION

Of the top 120 major league players in 2008 (via The Hardball Times), 95 (79 percent) began their professional careers after being drafted. The remaining 25 (21 percent) were signed as international free agents. More than one-third of MLB's top 120 players in 2008 were former first-round picks and 60 percent (72 players) were drafted in the first five rounds (see graph below):

Of the 41 players shown in the graph above who were drafted in the first round, 75 percent were selected in the top 20 picks in their respective drafts (see graph below). Interestingly, almost as many were drafted in the No. 11-20 range as were drafted among the top 10 selections, suggesting that is difficult to discriminate the top-end talent available in the baseball draft. Taking the group of seven Top 120 MLB players in 2008 who were selected No. 1 overall as a class to themselves, it is interesting to note that selections No. 11-20 have been more productive in generating elite major league talent than selections No. 2-10 (14 vs. 10 players). Also worth noting is that once you get beyond the top 20 picks, there is a significant drop-off in the number of elite players:

DRAFT POSITION AND MAJOR LEAGUE SUCCESS

Baseball's elite typically begin their professional careers as draftees. But how often do drafted players reach the major leagues and how does draft position correlate with success? To answer these questions, I used the draft database at Baseball Reference to calculate the percentage of players drafted in 2000-2005 who have spent at least a few games in the major leagues. The average percentages of players drafted in various rounds for these six years are graphed below. As expected, players drafted in the earlier rounds were more successful in making it to the major leagues. Surprisingly, almost 60 percent of the first-round picks and 40 percent of the second-round picks from 2000-2005 have spent time in the majors. Clearly, taking note of the amateur draft is one way to get a very early look at who you are likely to see playing for your favorite team in five years:

POSITION PLAYERS VS. PITCHERS

In the 2000-2005 drafts, 250 players were selected in the first round. 137 (55 percent) were pitchers and 113 (45 percent) were position players (see table below). Of the pitchers selected in the first round, 53 percent have appeared in the major leagues, 36 percent have appeared in at least 30 major league games, and 15 percent have put up All-Star-caliber numbers. Of the position players selected in the first round, 62 percent have appeared in the major leagues, 47 percent have played in at least 100 games, and 19 percent have appeared in an All-Star game or are currently putting up All-Star-caliber numbers. These data suggest that teams that use their first-round picks on position players are more likely to see returns at the major league level. The data also reveal that players who are talented enough to be first-round picks often perform at very high levels once they are promoted to the major leagues:

COLLEGE VS. HIGH SCHOOL DRAFTEES

Of the 250 first-round picks from the 2000-2005 drafts, 114 were drafted out of high school and 136 were drafted out of college programs. Fifty percent of the high school draftees have appeared in the major leagues, 35 percent have pitched in at least 30 games or hit in at least 100, and 18 percent have appeared in or are on track to appear in at least one All-Star Game. Sixty-three percent of the college draftees have appeared in the major leagues, 46 percent have pitched in at least 30 games or hit in at least 100, and 16 percent have begun All-Star-caliber careers. These results are consistent with studies from earlier drafts that suggested that college players are better bets to reach the major leagues:

Noteworthy from the 2000-2005 drafts is that the hit rate on All-Star-caliber players drafted in the first round slightly favors high school players (18 percent for high school draftees vs. 16 percent for college draftees). The difference becomes more compelling when you consider the cream of the crop from these six drafts. Listed below are the very top major league players who were selected in the first rounds of the 2000-2005 drafts. The players are categorized based upon whether they were drafted and signed as college or high school players. The number of elite or soon-to-be elite high school draftees exceeds the number of elite college draftees by 13-to-9. Particularly interesting is the discrepancy between the high-end pitchers, where high school draftees outnumber college draftees at a 6-to-1 rate.

College First-Round Draft Picks: Justin Verlander, Mark Teixeira, Chase Utley, Nick Markakis, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew

High School First-Round Draft Picks: Zach Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Cole Hamels, David Wright, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Scott Kazmir, John Danks, Adam Wainwright

THE GRAND CONCLUSIONS

● First-round picks, especially those in the top 20, provide tremendous opportunities for organizations to improve their future major league teams.

● When it comes to first-round picks, position players are safer bets than pitchers and college players are safer bets than high school players.

● High school draftees are better bets to become elite pitchers than college draftees.