2009 Rangers Draft Preview: Part II
Brownwood High School right-hander Shelby Miller is the odds-on favorite to be selected by Texas at No. 14 next Tuesday.Much has been said about the lack of true first-round talent in this draft, particularly position players. The top half of the first, though, is definitely not short on pitching talent.
It starts with Stephen Strasburg, arguably the most talented amateur pitching prospect of all time and the would-be savior of the Washington Nationals franchise. While Strasburg blows the rest of the draft class away, there is a solid collection of pitchers to whom teams will happily hand millions of dollars. Mock drafts have been all over the place.
The Texas Rangers' first selection is the 14th overall pick. After assessing their independent-league and collegiate draft possibilites yesterday (Part I available here), here's a quick rundown of the high school talent that could be available when their turn comes up:
HIGH SCHOOL PITCHERS
Hard-throwing high school pitchers tend to have inflated velocities in their scouting reports. In 2003, John Danks was "touching 94." In 2004, Eric Hurley was "hitting 97."
Even the ones that don't get inflated reports have other issues. Blake Beavan, for example, had to make some fairly major changes to his delivery. His reported 94-96 mph fastball is now a 91-93 mph fastball.
Try to keep this in mind when reviewing the following pitchers:
Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco (CA) HS: Hobgood is a monster. He reportedly stands at 6' 4", 245 lb., leaving no room for projection. Hobgood has a 90-94 mph fastball and three off-speed pitches in a slider, change-up, and promising curveball. The off-speed lacks polish, and his command is somewhat spotty. His size and raw ability keep teams interested.
The No. 40 prospect in this draft according to Baseball America, Hobgood has been projected to go as early as No. 13 overall. Likelihood: 2%. Hobgood would have to be pretty high on the Rangers' board, and Matzek, Miller, Leake, and Purke will have to be off the board. He becomes a real option for the Rangers if he's still on the board at No. 44.
Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley (CA) HS: The top prep lefty for 2009 is Tyler Matzek. There are very few that question his mechanics, and his arm action even received borderline praise from Dr. Mike Marshall.
Despite his enviable status as a potential top-10 pick, I cannot find a glowing scouting report. His fastball is 90-94 mph with average life, and he shows a sharp curveball. Matzek also throws a slider and change-up. According to Baseball America, Matzek hit 98 mph in a recent start.
Some reports point to a blister as the cause of some difficulty with his command earlier this spring, but the velocity he creates from a smooth delivery makes him very attractive. Combine this with his age and the projectability from a 6' 3", 185 lb. frame, and there's no reason he should fall past No. 10. Likelihood: 10%. A pretty high rating for someone who shouldn't be around at No. 14. If he is, I think the Rangers won't be able to pass on him.
Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS: Miller is this year's Texas High School Flamethrower, the one who is compared to Nolan Ryan and Josh Beckett. A more reasonable comparison is Homer Bailey. Miller throws a 92-94 mph fastball that's been as high as 98 mph. Baseball America says his fastball has tremendous life, while the Major League Scouting Bureau calls it average life. He has a curveball that flashes plus potential and has been toying with a change-up at the request of scouts. It's getting better. Miller is a tremendous athlete that punted and played All State tight-end for Brownwood.
Not too far from Arlington, Miller has been scouted by Nolan Ryan himself. Mock drafts consistently project him to be the Rangers selection. Personally, I like first-round pitchers to have a bit more polish than Miller does. Likelihood: 80%. He seems to be the favorite. The only question is whether he'll still be on the board.
Matt Purke, LHP, Klein (TX) HS: Coming into the season, Purke rivaled Matzek as the top prep lefty. This season hasn't really hurt his status, but Matzek has stormed past him. Concerns about Purke's arm action persist as well.
Purke's low three-quarters delivery gives his 92-94 mph fastball some pretty good arm-side life. It also gives his curveball enough sliding action that some scouts have called it a slider. Reports on his change-up vary, with some saying that he doesn't throw one and others saying that it's pretty good. His command is pretty good for a high school pitcher, especially for one with his stuff.
Rumors of his bonus demands have ranged from $3 million to $7 million. If there's fire to go with that smoke, Purke could fall pretty far. Likelihood: 15%. Purke has about a 50/50 chance of being on the board when the Rangers make their first pick. I think someone they like more will be available.
Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO): The consensus top prep right-hander at this point is Turner. Like many of the prep pitchers on this list, Turner works 92-94 mph. He throws from a three-quarters arm slot and has been clocked as high as 98 mph. Turner has a "big-breaking curveball" according to Baseball America, but the Major League Scouting Bureau likes his mid-70s "slider." (Fun, right?) By most accounts, his command is above average for a high school pitcher, but he has a tendency to leave his pitches up in the zone at times.
Turner is represented by Scott Boras and reportedly wants $7 million guaranteed, which would match what Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello received -- both were major league contracts. He's not as good as Porcello, and Porcello fell all the way to the end of the first round. Likelihood: 15%. He might be around, but I think the Rangers prefer Shelby Miller if they have a choice to make.
Zach Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding (GA) HS: Standing at 6' 4" and weighing in at 170 lb., Wheeler is the rare ultra-skinny kid who has scouts drooling about his projectability instead of complaining about how skinny he is. As a 6' 4", 175 lb. person myself, I'm not sure I buy into his projectability.
Wheeler features a 90-92 mph fastball that may or may not have excellent life. (Thanks, again, go to conflicting reports.) He flashes a plus curveball (slurve) but his command of it comes and goes. Wheeler seems like a raw talent with wiry strength and good projectability.
The tall, skinny kid with broad shoulders and long arms is expected to be drafted by the Braves at No. 7. The chief justification seems to be that Wheeler is from Georgia. Why not Donovan Tate then? His overall package just doesn't scream No. 7 to me. Shelby Miller is reportedly Plan B for the Braves. Likelihood: 7%. Mostly a guess, but I just don't think the Rangers are going to call his name.
HIGH SCHOOL POSITION PLAYERS
Bobby Borchering, 1B/3B, Bishop Verot (FL) HS: A player with average speed and questionable defensive talent, Borchering's bat is going to be what brings him a professional paycheck. He is a switch hitter with excellent bat speed. Borchering is expected to hit for average and power as a professional. Offensively, he's probably the best bet from the prep ranks.
ESPN's Keith Law suggests Borchering could go off the board as early as No. 4 if the Pirates are looking to go below slot. Talent-wise, he seems like a middle of the first round guy. Likelihood: 3%. A corner infielder in a draft weak on first-round position player talent? Not likely. With all of the pitching that should still be around at No. 14, I can't see the Rangers going this way.
Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville (GA) HS: An athletic and toolsy center fielder from Georgia, Tate has plus-plus speed and very solid defensive instincts. His arm grades as slightly above average, and his raw power is impressive for a high schooler. Scouts question how long it will take for his bat to develop or if it ever will.
Tate has committed to play football and baseball at UNC. He reportedly wants $6 million to forego those commitments. That's a lot to pay someone with questionable offensive skills. Still, he is widely regarded as the top prep position player available. Likelihood: 3%. If the bonus demands are real, it will take a team that truly believes in his bat. Are the Rangers that team? I don't think they are.
WHAT DO I THINK?
With about a week to go before the draft, the first half of the first round is still a major toss-up. The only certainty is that Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley (1B/OF, UNC) will be gone before the Rangers pick. Then again, Justin Smoak was supposed to be long gone by the time the 11th pick rolled around last year.
Personally, I'm torn between Shelby Miller and Mike Leake. If both are available at No. 14, my decision would probably be made by flipping a coin. I'm leaning toward Leake right now.
I hope Tyler Skaggs (LHP, Santa Monica HS, CA) falls to No. 44, but his ankle injury might not be enough to push him out of the first round. Some projections have him as high as No. 17. Other names that intrigue me at No. 44: Slade Heathcott (LHP/OF, Texas HS, TX), Kendal Volz (RHP, Baylor) and Alex Wilson (RHP, Texas A&M).
9 Comments | in Analysis, MLB Draft, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (9)
"As a 6' 4", 175 lb. person myself, I'm not sure I buy into his projectability."
Funny stuff... and as a 6'0 160 lb. 40 yr old man, I can tell you that sometime's God just makes people skinny for life. So I'm with you on this one... he may never be the "sturdy" type.
Another example would be McCarthy... he looks like a scare crow and he's what 6'7, 210?
I have a question for you; I realize all scouts are different but why the ridiculous disparity between some scouts saying a pitcher has no change up while others say its pretty good? A Change up is a pretty discernable pitch... it's not like judging movement on a certain pitch.
Surely these scouts watch more than only a handful of games, correct? In other words, it's not like a scout is only waching a guy pitch once or twice, where his fastball was good enough on that given day, right? So why such a disparity of opinion?
One last thing; it would be really cool if you could somehow rate the top Latino talent and how they might compare to some of these guys. *By Latino I mean Dominican, etc... players not draft eligible.
Why is Alex Wilson not getting more hype? The reports that I've seen have him with a sinking fastball up to 95 MPH and a plus breaking ball to go along with good mound presence. Is his height (6'), walk-rate (2.4/9IP) or recent Tommy John surgery pushing him into the supplemental 1st? I would be thrilled if the Rangers selected him at #44.
Pabloesque: The problem with the reports stems from different games. The Major League Scouting Bureau doesn't watch these guys all the time. In fact, they probably only see a guy once or twice all year. On top of that, their scouts just aren't as good as team scouts. Baseball America relies on reports from other people. They do have eyes on the games, but they can't send Aaron Fitt to every game in the country. A lot of what they do is compile reports based on interviews they do with people who *have* seen the players on multiple occasions. There's room for error with both methods.
david: Alex Wilson looked like a sure bet to be a Top 15 pick after he stormed out of the gate this spring. I think maybe he was dealing with some fatigue as his numbers went from outstanding to good to average to well below average. A&M moved him to the bullpen where he's been decent but no where near as good as he was in February and March. The dropoff in quality may be attributable to his recovery from TJ, or something else might be going on. The uncertainty hasn't helped him. He's the type of pitcher I wouldn't mind taking a chance on at #44. No telling where he goes, though.
I have to admit, I am usually affected by rumors< but in terms of reading speculation about my son, My opinions become more factual and perhaps more slanted. Let's see, he is not hurt, his velocity is not down, he did have TJ, but thanks to Dr. Kremchek of Cinci, he is perfectly healthy. Weakness, lack of a good offspeed pitch, but because of his work ethic he will get there, control great (120/24BB over 89 innings in the Big 12), coachable, will sign for slot in the 1st, and because of his drive, he will make it to the show. Hell, he is even a good hitter, power to all fields although nobody knows it, except the coaches at A&M.
Thanks for stopping by, Jim. It's good to hear that Alex is healthy. Have his pitches returned to their pre-TJ levels or do you expect to see significant improvement as he continues to improve his strength in the next 6-12 months?
I did not mean to imply that Wilson is injured. I also made no claim regarding his velocity. When I saw him pitch in February (in the game against Rice where Ryan Berry destroyed the Aggies), he absolutely had a good off-speed pitch in his slider. Some people don't consider a slider to be off-speed, so this might just be a communications error.
His slider was a plus pitch that night, and if that's somehow abandoned him of late, that would certainly explain his results and why he was sent to the bullpen to close out the year.
A comment from Part I to explain my "percentages":
I call the stat "likelihood" instead of "odds" or "statistical probability" for a reason. The number represents more of a linear weight than an actual percentage.
I started with the thought, "If this player is there, what are the actual odds that the Rangers take him?" From there, I discounted or inflated the percentage based on a slightly educated guess as to whether or not the player will actually be on the board.
It was a lot easier to express this number as a percentage than to just throw a random looking integer out there and have readers ask, "what does '75' mean?"
Keep and eye on Jabari Blash you will be surprised