Sunday Morning Open Thread: Five Questions
Joey Matschulat
1. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with how the Rangers have elected to handle prized young pitchers Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz this year?
2. With left-hander Matt Harrison (left biceps inflammation) now indefinitely absent from the picture, whom should Texas entrust as the ballclub's new fifth starter? Is the short-term answer already within the organization -- e.g. Tommy Hunter, Jason Jennings and Guillermo Moscoso -- or located elsewhere?
3. Given the success that Rangers starting pitchers have recently enjoyed with Taylor Teagarden behind the plate and given Jarrod Saltalamacchia's continued offensive struggles, is it time for Teagarden to begin receiving more than 20 percent of the playing time at catcher?
4. Via D Magazine's Evan Grant, .242/.288/.512-hitting designated hitter Hank Blalock's self-assessment: "All I know is that I'm an everyday-caliber player." Agree or disagree?
5. What is your projected Opening Day 2010 starting lineup?
Reader Comments (22)
1. Yes. I hope they keep running him out there. He really had some bad luck on a bunch of ground balls last night. And Mike Young's failure to make a routine play didn't help him either.
2. Look within, and if Mike Young and Blalock gripe about it, tough for them.
3. I've been a bit surprised by this 80-20 thing so far. But I'm convinced both are going to be solid catchers, so either one they keep will be good for the team. I can't get worked up about this issue.
4. I will be happy the day Blalock is gone. The most overrated hitter in Rangers history. Fewer quality at bats than anyone in memory.
5. Cruz in left, Borbon in center, Hamilton in right. Other than that, it's the same unless Davis continues to struggle. Then it would be Smoak at first. I've been assuming their preference is to use Smoak as trade bait in a move for a big young arm.
1. In hindsight, I think I would've rather seen Holland starting in AAA instead of being called up in April. I think it would've made his transition to the big league rotation a lot smoother. At this point, I'm almost glad to see him taking his lumps in the rotation rather than the bullpen.
As for Feliz, I find myself growing a bit paranoid about his move to the bullpen, but since that's probably just me being paranoid, I won't go any further there.
2. I'd rather keep Jennings in the 'pen for now and see what Hunter and Moscoso can bring to the table. Jennings has proven to be a nice arm to be able to turn to as a bridge to the late inning guys, and given the course our bullpen has run from extremely shaky to fairly reliable this year I wouldn't be too inclined to mess with its balance just yet.
3. Salty has really disappointed me this year offensively, but he's finally starting to show some encouraging signs at the plate right now. I still don't have any faith that Teagarden is an offensive answer of any sorts, and since Salty has seemingly rendered Teagarden's supposed defensive advantage moot I'd stick with Salty catching 4 out of every 5 for awhile longer.
4. Hank's half right. He's hitting .263/.320/.579 (898 OPS) against RHP's this year, so he's definitely still a nice power threat against right-handed pitching. Against lefties however, he's hit just .200.214/.364 (578 OPS) this year, adding little to his meagher 652 career OPS against LHP's. Hank's a platoon slugger whose overall numbers would look a lot better if he had someone to protect him from the lefties.
Problem is, the guy who's supposed to be protecting him from lefties, Andruw Jones, is hitting .210/.346/.435 against southpaws (and is limited to DH).
5. Well, assuming all players live up to their potential...
1. Kinsler 2B
2. Young 3B
3. Hamilton RF/LF
4. Smoak 1b/DH
5. Cruz LF/RF
6. Davis or MaxRam 1B/DH
7. Salty
8. Borbon CF
9. Andrus SS
1. Derek Holland should be developing his secondary pitches as a starter in AAA along with Neftali Feliz.
2. Tommy Hunter and Brandon McCarthy as fifth starters.
3. The Rangers should transition Teagarden to be the starter and trade Saltalamacchia (as part of a package for Zack Greinke).
4. I agree that Blalock would make an adequate everyday-caliber player ..... for the Kansas City Royals.
5. Opening Day 2010 starting lineup....
1. Borbon, CF
2. Kinsler, 2B
3. Young, 3B
4. Hamilton LF
5. Smoak, DH
6. Cruz, RF
7. Davis, 1B
8. Teagarden, C
9. Andrus SS
SP: Ben Sheets/Zack Greinke
(1) I prefer to have prospects complete their development before they are called up to the majors simply because it is easier to work on weaknesses when there isn't pressure to win. With that said, it's hard to know exactly when a player is ready for the majors (see Elvis Andrus). Holland seems to be taking the path of many young, talented pitchers - taking his lumps now in preparation for a bright, near-term future. I did a study on young starting pitchers last year that some of you might enjoy (http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/10/3/627936/projecting-the-4h-club). The take-home is that approximately half of the starting pitchers who debuted in the AL at the age of 22 went on to become above average major league pitchers and that approximately half of that successful group had difficult first seasons. Holland's 7.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 are very good for a starting pitcher. His ERA is tough to look at because he is giving up a lot of homeruns (1,64/9), his LOB% is well below league average (65%), and the BABIP of opposing hitters is extremely high (.350). In time, Holland should be fine.
(2) Based on PitchFX data from 2008 and 2009, it appears that Hunter is transitioning from a 4-seamer/curveball pitcher into a 2-seamer/curveball/change-up pitcher. I think that it would be best for his development if he continued to start in AAA, though his 3.83 ERA in OKC suggests that he will be able to tread water as a major league starter.
With the caveat that the stats are based upon very few innings, Moscoso has improved each month this year culminating in a June ERA of 0.82 in AAA. The major league equivalent for his minor league numbers in 2009 are 3.43 FIP, 6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.35 WHIP, and .247 BAA.
Almost 50% of Jennings' pitches in 2009 have been sliders because his 87 MPH fastball is not very effective. Jennings has been very good in the bullpen because you really only need one really good pitch to get through a line-up one time. Though he might have slightly greater success than Hunter or Moscoso, I suspect that he will be significantly less effective as a starter than he has been as a reliever.
In the past two week, Dustin Nippert has tossed 2, 3, and 4 innings in three starts for Frisco. In those nine innings, he's given up no runs, 3 hits, 2 walks, and struck out 5. In four September starts at the end of last year, Nippert tossed 22.2 innings with an ERA of 3.97, 8.3 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 9.1 H/9. He has the three pitch repertoire of a ML starter, though the Rangers are more likely to ease him back into the majors as a reliever.
In my opinion, Moscoso and Nippert are probably the two best candidates to fill a long-term need fro a fifth starter. Assuming Harrison is expected to return in two weeks, then having Hunter fill the role is probably for the best since both Moscoso and Nippert need a little more time to get back into the rhythm of starting.
(3) Though Saltalamacchia has not hit up to expectations (254/301/353), he is still a better hitter than Teagarden (230/299/311). With that said, catchers tend to be more productive hitters when they get more rest (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8706). Having Teagarden catch two to three times per week would probably improve the production from the catcher's position.
(4) Despite suffering from a ridiculously low BABIP of 240, Blalock's 800 OPS and 336 wOBA rank 8th among DH's with at least 150 plate appearances in 2009. He is comfortably ahead of Burrell, Ortiz, Giambi, Cust, Griffey, and others. It would be nice to have a better OBP, but his power (270 IsoP) is among the best in baseball. He's not a great DH, but he is an everyday caliber DH.
(5) Starting line-up 2010
1. KInsler (2B)
2. Young (3B)
3. Hamilton (RF)
4. Cruz (LF)
5. Davis (1B)
6. MaxRam (DH)
7. Saltalamacchia (C)
8. Borbon (CF)
9. Andrus (SS)
This assumes that:
(1) Smoak remains in the minors throughout 2009 and gets a May call-up in 2010.
(2) Davis and MaxRam have monster second halves in 2009
1. I didn't like how Halland was used as a RP. Now that he is in the rotation we have tolive withhis ups and downs.
2. Filling his spot internally is the best solution. Jennings, Mathis, Hunter, El Duque, Moscoso: There are worse options.
3. Salty has been hitting better lately. I think Wash's plan all along was toincrease TT's playing time during the summer.
4. Blalock an everyday player? I don't think he realizes how poorly he hits LHP.
5. Opening day 2010 lineup
Borbon CF
Young 3B
Kinsler 2B
Hamilton DH
Cruz RF
Murphy/RHB LF
Davis 1B
Salty C
Andrus SS
1. Yes. There's no better way to elevate your game than with superior competition. Pick any sport, the answer is the same. So, to me, it's as much about a player's mentality as his physical makeup. And I've seen nothing to make me think they've been mistaken.
2. Short-term? No. The short term answer is not in the organization. That is, if the question is: Do we have a pitcher ready to step up that will shut down our opponents. If that were the case we wouldn't be talking about this now. However, should you really mean if we have anyone that can be a fill-in for a short while, sure we do. But I'd bet the farm the results will be a mixed bag of nuts.
3. I can only hope Manny Pina is better than advertized. But, I believe a catcher should be defense first, and I'd rather fool the hitters with great pitch selection. (Yes, I understand the parameters of that statement)
4. Can Hank throw a baseball from 3rdbase to 1st....and get a hitter out with that throw?
5. Dependant on righty/lefty matchups:
(1) Kinsler - 2nd
(2) Andrus - ss
(3) Hamilton - LF
(4) Cruz - RF
(5) Young - 3rd
(6) Smoak - 1st
(7) Davis - DH
(8) Teagarden - C
(9) Borbon - CF
1)Cannot really argue with being being points out of 1st place at the end of June. It seems Holland is learning. If we can stay in contention and he can learn, we are on the right track. With that said, I sure would like to see Feliz pitching rather than Grilli. Let him learn as well.
2)We have the talent to replace Harrison in house.
3)Again, cant argue with where we are in the standings. Salty is coming on. If Salty hits a slump again, give Tea 2-3 starts iin a row and see what happens.
4)Blalock will have his day when he is traded. Can you imagine him playing in NY or Boston. He will be a cult Hero. Just as he should be here in Texas as he was 5 years ago..
5)Borbon CF
Young 3B
Kinsler 2B
Hamilton RF
Smoak 1B
Murphy LF
Davis, MAxRam DH
Salty C
Andrus SS
Rotation:
Millwood
Sheets
Harrison
Feldman
Holland
Closer: Franky
L Set up: CJ
R set up: Feliz
I'm ok with how they've handled Holland and Feliz. I would have liked to see Holland stay in the bullpen and not move to the major league rotation this year, but I also think that once he's in there you need to stick with him through the growing pains.
I'd like to see what Jennings could do if given the chance to start.
I think Teagarden should at least start to see more playing time, maybe catching Holland and Padilla.
I think Blalock still has the potential to be an everyday player, but is does not have the right mental makeup to DH. I think if he was an everyday 1B (for some other club) he would probably flourish and get back to swinging the bat the way he used to. I just don't want to try getting him going here, or spend any money on him next year.
I'd say Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Cruz, and Andrus are the only definites for next years' lineup at this point but it's also too early to speculate on who else will be on the ballclub. I'd rather think about who will be traded in the next couple of weeks and who will be re-signed.
1. Yes.
2. Guillermo Moscoso
3. Yes.
4. Disagree. Shut up Blalock.
5. 1B: Smoak. 2B: Kinsler. SS: Elvis. 3B: MY. LF: Hammy. CF: Borbon. RF: Cruz. DH: Max.
Lots of interesting thoughts to mull over above. I think that Texas will try to trade either Salty or Teagarden this offseason, if not at the trade deadline. Either should bring something valuable back - either a power bullpen arm or a young starter.
I do think they need another OF - preferably a CF so Hamilton can move to a corner spot. Don't know if Borbon will be ready, but if so - he's the obvious answer. I think Murphy, Byrd or Boggs can be used in a trade to get pitching - since they are all probably 4th OFs for most clubs.
The other question is Smoak. I think he's going to be ready to contribute, and that would allow Texas to move Davis to DH or maybe even trade Davis.
If Hicks can sell the team & the new owner feels like being aggressive, two guys to go for next season are Lackey & Sheets. I'm not going to hold my breath on either - but adding those two guys along with Millwood & Feldman - that's a really good 1-4.
1. Only with feliz because of him getting moved to the pen he needs to continue to start the guy is only 20 yrs old give him a break by the time this kid is 23 he should be dominating! let him start quit being f'ing cheap hicks and go out and get a bullpen arm or take a hit and let moscoso figure it out!
2. I would say hunter since they've already given up on feliz as a starter!(BS by the way) or moscoso..
3. Tea man its time salty's all hype! he was supposed to b the best hitting catcher since piazza kid cant hit he now can play a little d but tea's the best option right now he handles the pitchers better that salty and im sure he can manage to hit some were close to 240-250 range like salty does
4. Disagree hank used to coulda hit! this guys a thief he has robbed the rangers for the last 3yrs!
5. pitchers: Mill, Sheets, holland, harrison, bmac
1b: Smoke
2b: kinz
ss: andrus
3b: young
lf: cruz
cf:borbon
rf: hamilton
dh: davis
catcher i would guess salty but i dont know for sure
1. Satisfied. Holland is taking his lumps and I think he'll be better for it. Feliz could help in the bullpen soon, though I am mildly concerned about the lack of focus on his secondary pitches the move to the bullpen may bring about.
2. Hunter. I'm saying this in hindsight after his solid outing yesterday, but Jennings to me would be a mistake in the rotation because of his recent injury history and the fact the he throws 2 pitches.
3. Yeah. Bump him up to 25 ro 30%.
4. He's an everyday caliber player when he uses the opposite field.
5. Borbon 8
Young 5
Kinsler 4
Hamilton 9
Cruz 7
Davis DH
Smoak 3
Saltalamacchia 2
Andrus 6
1. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with how the Rangers have elected to handle prized young pitchers Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz this year?
--> I like the way Feliz has been handled, but I wish Holland had been handled a little more carefully. It would have been nice to give him a little more time in OKC and perhaps leave him in the bullpen once he was called up.
2. With left-hander Matt Harrison (left biceps inflammation) now indefinitely absent from the picture, whom should Texas entrust as the ballclub's new fifth starter? Is the short-term answer already within the organization -- e.g. Tommy Hunter, Jason Jennings and Guillermo Moscoso -- or located elsewhere?
--> I think Tommy Hunter's actually looked pretty good this season. I'd be fine sticking with him.
3. Given the success that Rangers starting pitchers have recently enjoyed with Taylor Teagarden behind the plate and given Jarrod Saltalamacchia's continued offensive struggles, is it time for Teagarden to begin receiving more than 20 percent of the playing time at catcher?
--> This winter I was hoping that we would trade both Gerald and Salty so that Taylor could get the full run handling the pitching staff (with probably Melhuse as a backup for every 5-6th game). When they only traded Laird, I hoped it would be a 60/40 split for playing time with each catcher handling specific pitchers. Right now I don't see much harm in giving Salty Millwood and Padilla and having Taylor everyone else.
4. Via D Magazine's Evan Grant, .242/.288/.512-hitting designated hitter Hank Blalock's self-assessment: "All I know is that I'm an everyday-caliber player." Agree or disagree?
--> I'll agree with one small edit. It should say 'I was an everyday-caliber player'
5. What is your projected Opening Day 2010 starting lineup?
--> I'm going to assume that if the Rangers feel that Smoak is ready, they'll handle him like Andrus and take the extra games with him that season rather than worry about the extra year before free agency.
1) Ian Kinsler - 4
2) Michael Young - 5
3) Josh Hamilton - 9
4) Justin Smoak - 3
5) Nelson Cruz - 7
6) Chris Davis - DH
7) Taylor Teagarden - 2
8) Julio Borbon - 8
9) Elvis Andrus - 6
SP)
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