The Rangers' 40-Man Roster And The 2009 Trade Deadline
Armando Galarraga (pictured here pitching against Texas on April 10th, 2008) became a Tigers starter after being a casualty of the Rangers' 40-man roster crunch in 2007.Major league teams are required to pare their major league rosters to 40 players by mid-November each year. Organizations that have more major league talent than they can adequately protect in the off-season can use the month of July to minimize the losses that they will experience in the Rule 5 draft by trading their surplus for soon-to-be free agents or low-level prospects.
A quick rundown of the Rangers' 40-man roster and the minor league players who will need to be added this off-season reveals that the team would benefit from participating in the trade market in the coming weeks.
PROJECTED 40-MAN ROSTER (DECEMBER 2009)
(1) SS Elvis Andrus
(2) OF Julio Borbon
(3) OF Brandon Boggs
(4) OF Nelson Cruz
(5) IF Chris Davis
(6) OF Josh Hamilton
(7) IF Ian Kinsler
(8) OF David Murphy
(9) C Max Ramirez
(10) C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
(11) C Taylor Teagarden
(12) IF Jose Vallejo
(13) IF Michael Young
(14) RHP Scott Feldman
(15) LHP Matt Harrison
(16) LHP Derek Holland
(17) RHP Tommy Hunter
(18) RHP Eric Hurley
(19) RHP Brandon McCarthy
(20) RHP Kevin Millwood
(21) RHP Frank Francisco
(22) RHP Warner Madrigal
(23) RHP Darren O'Day
(24) LHP C.J. Wilson
(25) RHP Guillermo Moscoso: Perhaps the most important stat for Moscoso in 2009 is innings pitched. The 52.1 innings he's tossed in AA, AAA, and MLB this season are the second most he's ever thrown in a season. The three-pitch repertoire (fastball, change-up, curveball) that he used in his three major league games was solid, if unspectacular. His numbers in AA-ball and AAA-ball have been sufficient to ensure a spot on the Rangers' roster (4.10 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, .249 BAA).
(26) RHP Neftali Feliz*: Feliz's monthly progress (4.30 ERA and 15 walks in April, 3.80 ERA and 11 walks in May, 3.63 ERA and two walks in June) suggests that he will be ready to debut in the majors this year. Because he must be added to the 40-man roster this off-season, expect to see Feliz in Arlington in September, if not sooner.
(27) IF Justin Smoak: Though it would probably be best to keep him in the minors for the duration of 2009, it seems likely that Smoak will get a late-season call-up that will require that he be added to and kept on the 40-man roster.
(28) RHP Omar Poveda: A solid but unspectacular season in AA-ball (3.59 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 5.0 K/9) should be enough to keep the 21-year-old right-hander on the 40-man roster.
(29) C Manny Pina*: The bat (.286/.341/.418 in AA-ball) is beginning to catch up with the glove. Pina's talent, age (22 years), and performance ensure that he will be one of several new members of the Rangers' 40-man roster this year.
(30) OF Greg Golson: His 23 percent strikeout rate in AAA-ball is an improvement and his batting stats (.271/.326/.376) are almost as good as Borbon's.
(31) RHP Pedro Strop: His stats in AA-ball and AAA-ball this year have been unsightly (8.42 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 6.0 BB/9, .306 BAA in 31 IP), but Strop has proven to be healthy, making his plus fastball and at least average slider and change-up worthy of a roster spot.
(32) RHP Thomas Diamond: Don't look now, but Diamond seems to have righted the ship pitching out of the RoughRiders' bullpen (2.50 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 7.0 H/9, 0 HR, .221 BAA). The 7.5 walks per nine innings remain a serious problem, but like Strop, it is hard to give up on a guy with quality stuff who appears to be healthy again.
(33) RHP Dustin Nippert: Assuming he is healthy and reasonably successful in Arlington this year, Nippert's two plus pitches should be enough to ensure that he has a spot on the 40-man roster.
(34) LHP Zach Phillips*: Teams participating in the Rule 5 draft really like to select left-handed pitchers with upside whom they can use as LOOGYs (left-handed one-out guys) in their first year and then hope to develop into something more down the line. Assuming Phillips maintains his current pace (1.23 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.4 H/9 (!), 0.2 HR/9), he will almost certainly be on some team's 40-man roster in December.
(35) RHP Jason Jennings: If he continues to pitch well (3.44 ERA in 36 IP), Jennings will get a major league contract. Look for the Rangers to get a deal done before the end of November.
(36) OF Marlon Byrd or DH Hank Blalock: Tim Dierkes recently reported that both players project to be Type B free agents. The Rangers will likely offer one or both players arbitration in hopes of gaining draft pick compensation if they choose free agency.
(37) LHP Michael Kirkman*: Like Phillips, Kirkman has the upside (low-90s fastball, good curveball and change-up) and major league role (LOOGY) that teams crave in Rule 5 draftees.
(38) LHP Beau Jones*: See Kirkman, Michael.
(39) RHP Willie Eyre: Whether the Rangers protect Eyre again after the 2009 season will depend on how well he pitches when he returns from injury.
(40) RHP Matt Nevarez*: Though it is uncommon for players in A-ball to be selected in the Rule 5 draft, Nevarez fits the profile of those who are –- hard throwers who have either recently improved their control or returned from injury. Nevarez is doing both and has put up ridiculous numbers this year (1.23 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 4.1 H/9, 0 HR).
[* indicates players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this year.]
The above list was assembled to minimize player losses via the Rule 5 draft. Teams that participate in the Rule 5 Draft typically select pitchers who can contribute in the bullpen or infielders who can contribute as utility players, though backup catchers and fifth outfielders are occasionally selected as well. Last year, for instance, 11 right-handers, five left-handers, two middle infielders, two catchers and an outfielder were selected.
PLAYERS LIKELY TO BE GRANTED FREE AGENCY OR EXPOSED TO THE RULE 5 DRAFT
IF Joaquin Arias: Out of options and outplayed by other middle infielders in the Rangers' system, it seems likely that Arias will get an opportunity to prove himself in another organization after this season, if not before. If he can sustain his recent hot streak (.377 batting average over the last two weeks), Arias might have some value at the trade deadline.
RHP John Bannister: Bannister has yet to produce at the level that one would expect of a minor league relief pitcher on a team's 40-man roster (4.73 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 11.0 H/9).
RHP Joaquin Benoit: If his injured shoulder progresses, then look for the Rangers to attempt to sign him to a non-roster deal in the off-season.
LHP Fabio Castillo: Although his stats have improved this year (1.79 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 8.5 H/9, 0.2 HR/9), Castillo has yet to look the part of a major league pitcher. Despite his physical talents, it seems highly unlikely that he would be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
RHP Adalberto Flores: If Smoak, Eyre, or Nevarez is left off the 40-man roster, then look for Flores to be added. The 22-year-old right-hander has been spectacular pitching out of the High-A Bakersfield bullpen (3.30 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, .227 BAA), and is a strong candidate to be selected in the Rule 5 draft if he is not protected.
RHP Jason Grilli: Twelve seasons have produced career major and minor league ERAs of 4.72 and 4.51, respectively. Despite the strikeouts (9.6 K/9), Grilli has been decidedly mediocre this year (1.97 WHIP, 5.55 ERA).
LHP Eddie Guardado
LHP Mike Hinckley and LHP A.J. Murray: Murray has been the better pitcher this year (1.27 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 vs 2.78 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 4.4 BB/9), but both pitchers are tough on left-handed batters
OF Andruw Jones
RHP Doug Mathis: After going unclaimed when waived earlier this year, Mathis will be able to elect free agency the next time he is taken off the 40-man roster. Mathis might be an interesting trade target for a team with a dearth of near-ready major league pitchers.
RHP Luis Mendoza: In the past two years, Mendoza has been mediocre in the minors (5.25 ERA) and awful in the majors (9.09 ERA). If his transition to the bullpen fails to produce outstanding results, expect Mendoza to be dropped from the 40-man roster in the coming months.
RHP Vicente Padilla: If they don't trade him during the season, look for the Rangers to buy out the final year of Padilla's contract and allow him to sign elsewhere.
OF David Paisano: Good glove, limited bat and taking a third run at A-ball pitching.
RHP Josh Rupe: Since a great start to the 2008 season, Rupe's performance has been uninspiring. Unless he begins to dominate AAA as a starter, expect Rupe to sign with another team this off-season.
OF Cristian Santana: Struggling in A-ball (.178/.279/.295), Santana need not be added to the 40 man roster.
IF Omar Vizquel: After a great start, Vizquel's bat has cooled significantly in the past month (.211/.211/.211).
IF Johnny Whittleman: Struggling in AA-ball (.217/.327/.300), Whittleman is an extreme long-shot to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
TRADABLE ASSETS
If the Rangers are unable to swing a deal or two before November 20th, they stand a very good chance of losing a few players to free agency and the Rule 5 draft. Dealing a bit of excess before the trade deadline would allow them to either enhance their chances in 2009 or improve their system in the future.
Andruw Jones, Marlon Byrd, and Hank Blalock are almost certainly not in the Rangers' long-term plans. If a contender develops a need for a hitter, then trading one of these players could provide the Rangers with a prospect or an upgrade.
Omar Vizquel and Joaquin Arias could be valuable to a contender with a near-term need for a middle infielder. Arias might also be interesting to a team seeking a young second baseman/shortstop. If Vizquel is traded, then Arias will likely be the guy who takes his spot in Arlington.
With Dustin Nippert and Willie Eyre almost ready to return from injuries and Neftali Feliz being prepared for a role in the bullpen, the Rangers might actually have a surplus of right-handed relievers within the next month. Jason Jennings would likely provide the greatest return if the Rangers are convinced that they have other players who can provide quality middle relief.
The Rangers do not currently have a quality LOOGY on the major league roster (lefties have hit .433/.485/.667 against Guardado in 30 AB), but it appears that they have two in AAA. Calling up one of A.J. Murray and Mike Hinckley and exchanging the other for a low-level prospect could be a winning combination for the team. If the left-hander that the Rangers call up fails, then Michael Kirkman, Zach Phillips and Beau Jones could be auditioned.
24 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (24)
Timely post.
In my opinion the Rangers should focus on moving some depth to a team lacking such, in exchange for potential upside.
One example off top of my head, Mendoza-Poveda-Arias for Ian Snell. Or some variation of that.
Like most Rangers fans, I am excited to see what Smoak can do against major league pitching. But calling him up, even for just a few games in September, will likely cause the team to lose one of Eyre, Flores, Murray, Hinckley, or Mathis. While none of those players is likely to be great, it is always painful to lose a pitcher with major league talent. If Smoak remains healthy and does not make his major league debut this year, it will probably be because of the 40-man roster implications or an attempt to restrict his major league service time.
Looking down the list of players projected to be on the 40 man roster, it is obvious that the Rangers have decided to focus their player acquisition/development efforts on pitching and catching. The 23 pitchers (9 starters and 14 relievers) and 4 catchers on the list leave room for only 6 infielders and 7 outfielders.
David - given the roster implications, why would the Rangers rush to sign Jennings prior to the Rule V draft? Couldn't they work out a deal in principle but wait until next year to sign him?
Nice analysis David,
The Rangers have a wealth of talented pitching prospects to deal for established ML pitching. Let's make an offer for Matt Cain or Zack Grienke..... one that favorably compares to the talent Texas received in the Teixeira trade.
Mike: I might be over-valuing Jennings, but my sense is that he will be one of the better free agent relievers available this off-season. That usually means a 2-3 year major league deal in November or December. In the scenario where the Rangers sign Jennings in December, they will be able to protect one more player in the Rule 5 Draft but they will have to waive someone to make room for Jennings if they give him a major league deal. Either way, they are only able to restrict the movement of forty Rule 5-eligible players.
One other thing that was not mentioned in the article but that I believe will impact the Rangers' off-season roster is the signing of Ben Sheets. Count me in the camp that believes that Padilla's roster spot will be filled by Sheets and cause one additional player to be removed from the 40.
TexasLifter - I am not a big fan of trading prospects for an established major league pitcher (http://www.lonestarball.com/2008/10/9/631630/trading-prospects-for-pitc). If KC or SF or another team is looking to move a good young pitcher for a reasonable package, then the Rangers should definitely make a move. Unfortunately, teams that trade good young pitching are rarely lookiing for a reasonable return.
I am a huge fan of trading for talented young pitchers who are having bad seasons. If Jonathan Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Fausto Carmona, or Homer Bailey could be had for a couple of guys in the 30-40 range on the Rangers roster and a C-level prospect, then that is a deal that I would likely do in a heartbeat.
Maybe if we keep Diamond around, he'll emulate Benoit in that he'll go from a moderately successful hard-throwing mediocre-control starter in the minors to a moderately successful hard-throwing mediocre-control setup man in the bigs. Reminds me a lot of Robinson Tejeda who we dumped but who has since put up good numbers in KC despite control problems.
Dude I just saw Diamond give up a grannie the other day. Need to update that line. He looked awful. Had two pitches that were so bad he almost hit Deuce the mascot.
Hi David,
Thank you for the article link regarding the trading of prospects for successful, young ML pitching. I am a fan of trading for a pitcher like Dan Haren, especially since the Rangers have a wealth of surplus talent as you document in the article above.
The Rangers have an opportunity to pursue Greinke/Cain with the talent of David Murphy, Jarod Saltalamacchia, Brandon McCarthy, Tommy Hunter, not to mention five or six pitching prospects who will be ML ready in 2010. The Rangers are in position to overwhelm a potential trading partner without compromising the continued development of a talent pool that will continue to challenge 40-man roster decisions.
Adding Greinke/Cain and Ben Sheets to the 2010 team, in my opinion, is not only realistic, it is compelling for the Rangers and their fans. Go for it. The Rangers should continue to develop talent AND use that leverage to acquire top-echelon performers who can win championships.
rl - Sorry that the stats. They were up-to-date when I wrote the article last week.
TexasLifter - Greinke/Sheets/Millwood/Holland/Feldman does have a nice ring to it, but I think that you have to give up Smoak and/or Feliz plus a catcher and a low level pitching prospect like Font or Boscan to get the deal done. The trade might look good for a year or even two, but the team receiving highly regarded prospects for an established major leaguer seems to "win" those deals the vast majority of the time.
David,
Nice post, although I'm curious to know what you think about Brennan Garr, who I believe has to be added to the 40-Man Roster or exposed to Rule 5 Draft this December. It's been a rough last couple of weeks for Garr, but it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season shakes out for him.
David/Joey,
If the Rangers buy out the final year of Padilla's contract, are they still able to offer arbitration to him? Wondering how it works if Padilla ends up as a Type A/B with the option buyout. I always thought an option buyout means you lose the draft pick compensation... but I'm (obviously) hoping different. Any thoughts?
David,
A trade with KC (or most other MLB teams for that matter) should be constructed as win-win. Texas would benefit immediately from Greinke as staff ace. I would hope KC would ask for MORE than the package you mentioned and that the Rangers would happily oblige. Specifically: David Murphy (who immediately starts in LF for KC); Saltalamacchia (a significant upgrade at catcher for them); Brandon McCarthy (their new #3 starter); Tommy Hunter (thier new #4 starter); and Fabio Castillo. The offer does not alter the Rangers' long-term plans for player development, opens starting opportunities for the aforementioned players and allows significant roster flexibility for our Rangers.
I understand that Greinke is signed through 2012, well within the Ranger's projected window for making a championship run.
I agree with you that Ben Sheets would make a great #2 starter in the Rangers 2010 rotation and am assuming that he inherits Vicente Padilla's salary.
Thanks for the dialogue.
YNH - I'm a long time fan of Brennan Garr as his mid-90's fastball and slider appeared to be well-suited for a role in the Rangers bullpen. He was great in 2007 (2.02 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 6.1 H/9, 4.6 BB/9), good in 2008 while pitching hurt (3.89 ERA, 11 K/9, 9 H/9, 5.3 BB/9), and mediocre thus far in 2009 (3.64 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 7.6 H/9, 5.2 BB/9). Garr is now 25 and seemingly incapable of reducing his walk rate. In my opinion, that flaw places Garr well down the Rangers' reliever pecking order and will keep him from being considered for the 40 man roster.
David: Blalock and Byrd won't be with the Rangers next year. I seriously doubt they offer Blalock arbitration. Heck, Hicks is counting on the savings he gets from Hank coming off the books next year. And, Hank would likely accept arbitration. As for Byrd, he doesn't want a one year deal. He is looking for his first multiyear FA deal. The Rangers will likely offer arb to him but he will decline.
Re Jennings: He will be a FA and will likely get more $$ from another team than what the cash strapped Ramgers will offer him.
dirty - Perhaps Joey can offer the official word on this, but my understanding is that buying out a contract results in the player becoming a free agent and precludes the team from making an offer to arbitrate. Even if that were not true, it would seem to be a risky proposition to offer Padilla arbitration since he might very well accept and receive a salary similar to the one that the Rangers' bought it.
TexasLifter - If the Rangers could get Greinke without giving up any of their Top 15 major league players or any of their Top 20 prospects, then you, I, and every other Ranger fan would do back flips. I just don't see the Royals giving up their best player for a bunch of average ones.
David, I agree..... well put. I also do not see KC resigning Greinke nor another MLB team able to match a Rangers offer for him in the next year. Therein lies opportunity.
And if the Rangers add Kiker to the trade mix, so be it.
We appreciate you.
Peace.
Rob - I'm glad you brought up Blalock and Byrd because they represent two of the more interesting roster decisions in the coming months. If neither are traded this season and both file for free agency and are ultimately declared Type B free agents as predicted by MLB Trade Rumors, then the six weeks after the World Series will be particularly interesting.
If Byrd or Blalock sign a free agent contract with another team before November 20, then the Rangers will receive a pick in teh supplemental first round. Assuming that either or neither player signs a contract with another team, then the Rangers will need to decide whether to offer them arbitration no later than December 1. The players have until December 7 to decide whether to accept arbitration. If the Rangers offer arbitration, then they have to make a roster spot available until the player declines arbitration. This year, the Rule 5 draft is scheduled for December 10, so I assume that the Rangers will have an opportunity to add a player to their roster for each free agent who declines arbitration by the December 7 deadline. That might make it more likely that the Rangers will offer arbitration to Blalock and/or Byrd since they won't have to risk losing a player in the Rule 5 draft while waiting for a decision from one of their free agents.
I think that you are right about Byrd likely declining arbitration if it is offered, thus the Rangers will need to decide if it is worth losing someone like Eyre, Nevarez, or Flores in order to gain a Top 60 draft pick. I wonder if the Rangers' recent success and emphasis on drafting and developing players might not lead them to offer arbitration to Blalock, as well. Blalock is only 28 years old and likely to receive a multi-year deal if teams believe that the economy is improving. Though I don't expect it, it would not surprise me if the Rangers made arbitration offers to both Blalock and Byrd if they are Type B free agents.
David,
Are you sure that if the Rangers elect to remove Doug Mathis from the 40-Man Roster that he will automatically be able to take free agency? I don't remember him being Designated For Assignment previously; I thought that the Rangers chose to non-tender him after the 2008 season and then re-signed him to a minor league contract for 2009. Does that count the same as being Designated For Assignment?
Your memory is better than mine, YNH. I thought that Mathis had been DFA'd late last year to create a spot on the 40-man roster, but as you suggest, it appears that he was non-tendered in the off-season and then re-signed as a minor league free agent. That means that the Rangers can indeed assign him to a minor league team if he passes through waivers after being DFA'd during the season. However, if Mathis is not on the 40-man roster at the end of ths season, he will be able to become a minor league free agent since it has been 5 years since he signed with the Rangers.
David, this post is absolute gold. Thanks for your insights. It's good to see so much talent, especially ML-ready bullpen talent. I have been laughing at the thought of the Rangers trading for a bullpen arm since they are something like 32-1 when leading after 6 innings. They have so many guys to turn to right now if they have an injury or decide to give up on Eddie.
I agree with some of the comments above that the Rangers have the makings of a win-win deal for an Ace-type starter without needing to touch any of their elite youngsters. Adding Sheets next yr also, if healthy, will put this rotation in the top 5 in the AL. This is going to be an exciting time watching the Rangers construct a WS-contending team over the next 6 months or so.
Overall I think your analysis is very good, but I think you are not fully taking into account the compositıon of the 40-Man Roster. You have 23 pitchers, 6 or 7 outfielders (if you have Marlon Byrd instead of Hank Blalock) and, unless you are including Michael Young, only 3 middle infielders.
It just seems that if the Rangers are going to have Julio Borbon, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Greg Golson, Brandon Boggs, and David Murphy, having Byrd is really not necessary. Simıilarly, if Texas has Justin Smoak, Chris Davis and Max Ramirez, then Blalock is not needed.
And with the 23 pitchers you have listed, we might be seeing constraints new to Ranger fans. 11 pitchers out on options means that several guys are likely going to get Designated for Assignment before ever pitching for the Rangers. I thınk trades wıll likely be ın order.
Question? Why would we keep Hurley on the 40-man vs. Phillips? Hurley's surgery is not easy to come back from and it would be unlikely that he would stay on a major league roster for the full season next year.
nevermind, ignore my post :P. lol