Fixing The Texas Rangers' Offense: The Four Possibilities
Brandon Boggs reacts in disgust after striking out against the Giants' Brian Wilson during the top of the 10th inning on Saturday, June 20th.After Andruw Jones socked a game-tying two-run blast on Sunday afternoon to snap a teamwide 0-for-34 slump at the plate and give the Texas Rangers' floundering offense a much-needed momentary respite, the lineup awakened from its two-week-long slumber to the tune of ... well, 2-for-11 with no additional runs plated through the game's final three frames, not surprisingly culminating in a deflating three-game road sweep at the hands of the Giants, possessors of one of baseball's absolute worst offenses.
Back on April 4th, I disclosed my runs scored/allowed projections for the 2009 iteration of the Rangers and indicated that an upward revision in the former department -- in which I surmised that Texas would score 850 runs -- might be appropriate in light of the fact that Texas had emerged from the Cactus League season relatively unscathed in the injury sense, but refrained from doing so while arriving at the following pithy conclusion: "No, this simply isn't an 875-run team."
The above one-sentence assessment has unfortunately proven accurate thus far, albeit to a far greater degree than I had ever remotely imagined: including Sunday afternoon's 3-2 defeat at AT&T Park in San Francisco (a venue in which Texas has yet to notch a victory), the Rangers are collectively hitting .258/.318/.457 through their first 68 games -- a team batting line which is eerily reminiscent of Sammy Sosa's .252/.311/.468 offensive effort during his 2007 farewell tour -- and reside upon a 790-run trajectory, the franchise's worst run-scoring pace since 1995. Much of that is attributable to what has transpired over the last two weeks, but you can't undo what has already come to pass.
The Rangers have but a handful of paths of recourse upon which they can embark as they attempt to redress what has very quickly evolved into the proverbial 800-pound gorilla in the room (that being the poor offense), which is actively sabotaging the efforts of both the pitching staff and the defense and has contributed to the fast-paced erosion of the Rangers' divisional lead to a single half-game, and we'll take a cursory look at those options now:
Option No. 1: Do absolutely nothing. It's sometimes said that slumping teams are never as bad as they actually look (with the antithesis of that axiom similarly applying to streaking teams), and this lineup obviously isn't going to persist in amassing fewer than four runs per game like it has thus far in the month of June (3.33 runs per game, to be exact), but here's the quandary: if the Rangers' offense somewhat rebounds but continues to largely struggle sans the formidable presence of center fielder Josh Hamilton (abdominal surgery), first place might be out of reach by the time he's game-ready. That's the risk you run when you attempt to ride out the storm -- sometimes the storm is a lot nastier and a lot longer than you had envisioned.
The "aggressive but disciplined" hitting philosophy espoused by hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo obviously isn't clicking with his pupils right now, and I believe the results-oriented nature of professional baseball entitles paying customers of the organization to demand some degree of accountability from the hitting coach when the team isn't hitting, but the principal issue remains execution (or the pronounced lack thereof); Jaramillo can attempt to articulate the optimal approach until he's blue in the face, but he can't stand in the batter's box and take the hacks as well (nor should he).
My suspicion is that if Jaramillo is actually a problem at all, he's an ancillary problem and therefore deserving of less attention, but if the team has a legitimate problem with the style in which Jaramillo delivers his message to the hitters, then it needs to go out and find the right man to deliver that message.
Option No. 2: Shuffle the lineup. Manager Ron Washington elected to alter his starting lineup at the outset of the Giants series with minimal effect, sliding third baseman Michael Young backwards into the three-hole -- a spot in which he has never hit particularly well, although that may or may not be indicative of anything meaningful -- and employing both shortstop Elvis Andrus and outfielder David Murphy at the No. 2 spot; it's not a terrible idea per se, but I don't really envision the "shakeup" accomplishing much of anything.
Seriously, which feasible batting configurations are better than what the Rangers are currently utilizing? Floundering first baseman Chris Davis is already buried about as deep in the lineup as he can be buried, and any further lineup changes would probably amount to a player being moved up or down one spot -- but, again, what is that really going to accomplish? If I'm missing something here, I'd love to know about it.
Option No. 3: Summon minor league reinforcements. Unless you're inclined to take a shot in the dark with the likes of Triple-A Oklahoma City's Emerson Frostad or Esteban German or Royce Huffman at first base while Davis -- whose season-long offensive misery we chronicled in detail on Friday morning -- attempts to retool his mentality and swing with the RedHawks or the RoughRiders, there are but two minor league players who could conceivably improve the situation: Max Ramirez and Justin Smoak.
While Ramirez had a five-game hitting streak snapped by an 0-for-3 showing against Triple-A Nashville on Sunday, he indicated after clouting a walk-off home run on Saturday evening that the pain which had previously beset his right wrist had subsided, portending well for a potential hot streak that could vault him back into the major league picture quickly; Smoak, meanwhile, further fueled his divisive standing as Davis's potential long-term replacement in Arlington with a 3-for-3, two-homer power exhibition during the rookie-league Arizona Rangers' season-opener on Sunday, with his low-affiliate cameo being the product of a strained oblique muscle which has sidelined him since May 28th and forced a rehab assignment.
Recognizing both Hank Blalock and Andruw Jones as everyday players at first base and designated hitter would also enable Texas to assign Davis to the minors (and would, at this stage, represent an offensive improvement over the current status quo, given that Davis is a complete and total offensive cipher right now), and would have the most-welcome side-effect of creating more potential playing time for apparent fifth outfielder Brandon Boggs, but the Rangers have opted to take the unconventional route before, and as I've said on many an occasion, desperation can breed surprises.
Option No. 4: Hit up the trade market. With Erik Bedard and Roy Halladay and Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb all presently sidelined with one malady or another, this figures to be a most favorable market for teams with viable major league pitching to sell -- a market which the Rangers may scorn entirely, if this passage from SI.com's Jon Heyman has any basis in reality: "Texas' quest for pitching help may be hindered by its inability to take any extra salary. For them to take a high-salaried veteran, they will have to get the trading team to pay the salary or take back a big salary ... [by giving up] a top prospect or prospects." Risky business, but perhaps for the best; teams looking to acquire quality pitching will inherently overpay by virtue of quality pitching being so difficult to come by, and those teams may end up paying even more this summer than they ordinarily would.
Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson -- who is currently hitting a whopping .321/.430/.453 through 293 plate appearances, with a walks-to-strikeouts ratio of 0.98 and a wOBA of .392 -- remains the most prominent offensive player rumored to be of some interest to Texas, although the biggest problem with attempting to address your deficiencies via trade is that most general managers are waiting for a satisfactory market to develop in which they can extract maximum value from their trade chips. If the Rangers are truly committed to making a run at the divisional crown, they can ill-afford to patiently sit on their hands while sellers operating from positions of power unconsciously rub theirs together with glee. They need to take action soon.
Johnson just might be something of an exception to this principle, however, as his injury-prone nature heightens the probability that he'll incur a significant injury before the Nationals can rid themselves of his $5.5 million contract -- a most undesirable possibility from the Nationals' perspective, one which might convince them to forgo a potentially greater trade return in exchange for the assurance that they'll actually get something back in return before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline comes to pass. Classify that underneath the "hopeful speculation" heading.
Which of these four options -- or which combination of these four options -- should Texas pursue in earnest?
18 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (18)
Good summary Joey. Is it possible that the players are confused due to conflicting messages from Rudy and Wash? Rudy teaches the "aggressive but disciplined" approach but Ron wants a "work the count" type of offense.
Of the options you outline, I would go with #3. Let Hank man 1B fulltime and Huffman can be the defensive replacement/ spot starter. CD needs to go to Frisco and get his swing back together.
I think CD has got to go figure his stuff out in AAA or AA. He is just simply killing the momentum. With that being said, I think option #3 is the immediate, and best, option.
While option #4 is the most intriguing... I don't think it should happen as I still think the Rangers need to hold onto their bright, young pitching prospects.
We can win with who we have...
Option 5, give it another week or so amd bring up the Fireman(J. Smoak). Looks like he is ready to go again after hitting 2 homers and a triple in three at-bats for the AZL Rangers yesterday. Only extra basehits on the day for the rookie squad. He has good plate discipline and pretty good Defense as well.
SEAN: Tap the brakes a little. Smoak abused a 18yo kid just out of HS. Smoak is the option in August if CD doesn't get his swing back, Hank doesn't improve at the plate and no trade materializes.
As far as I can tell, Chris Davis has two advantages over Justin Smoak.
1) as a former 3rd baseman with a good arm, he's better at making the throws at 1B.
2) Davis now has major league experience.
Advantage #1 doesn't come into play very often and outside of the arm Smoak seems to be Davis's equal at first. #2 isn't necessarily an advantage. The main reason the discussion surrounding Davis is even taking place is because of his experience in the bigs.
So I would go for solution #3. Use Blalock/Jones at first for a while and get more at bats for Boggs. Send Davis down to Frisco and promote Smoak to OKC. Davis could still work with Rudy during home series, and if he's absolutely tearing up AA pitching for three weeks, then maybe it's time to bring him back up to Arlington. If Davis can't get things back on track, then perhaps Smoak would get the call. Or maybe we'd find that with regular playing time at first, Hank isn't as bad defensively as we thought.
I believe the Rangers will stand pat with personnel while the players and coaches try to sort out their problems. What we're all missing is that this '09 version isn't a viable post season team. Oh sure, they have a chance to get there. And you never know when some team catches lightening in a bottle in post season play. But neither the offense, defense, or pitching is championship calibre.
So.....what they should do is keep building.
Therefore, I'd combine options 3 and 4. But option 4 wouldn't be for some pitching stud like Oswalt or Bedard. It'd be for some promising pitching in rookie or low-A ball most of us have never heard of because I'm not trading my farm, and the pieces I'm trading are at low on the value meter.
None of this will happen with these Rangers because they won't give up on the season for a while yet. But.... Chris Davis would be replaced by Justin Smoak asap. Let the learning curve begin. Andruw Jones and Hank Blalock would be traded for whatever I could get - even if it mean't eating salary. And Eddie Guardado would be fishing in Montana. A.J. "Pirate" Murray deserves a callup anyway, and Guillermo Moscoso only needs to tame his stuff.
Thanks for the post, Joey.
Is Moreland becoming a possibility to fill in for Davis? I've pretty much joined in the chorus that a demotion is best for Davis's long-term career. Obviously Moreland can stick around at DH even after Davis rejoins, as that position ain't doing much better.
Does Moreland's health make him more viable than Smoak right now?
Like to hear Parks input on this too if he's around...
I'm on the Smoak bandwagon. Why can we put so much faith in a 20 year old who had never played above AA to be our starting SS and not someone who's been to college and has proven thus far that he can handle AA pitching. Is Andrus's makeup that much greater than Smoak's or are we just trying to keep CD's ego intact. I was the biggest Davis fan last year and I'll continue to pull for him, even if it means in Frisco. They need to shake things up. As far as this nonsense about them being ahead of the curve as a team and that they are not championship caliber this year, who cares. That doesn't make suffering through a few more months of games watching Davis and Salty strikeout any easier. As long as we hold on to our top prospects we'll still be in contention next year. I'm not satisfied by finishing with a better record than last year if we have the internal options that could make a playoff run this year. I don't expect them to win the WS, and I wouldn't be surprised if they missed the playoffs altogether. I'm just saying I wouldn't stick it out with Davis hitting below the Mendoza line all year and setting records for K's if there is the POTENTIAL for better in our system right now. Why not give it a couple weeks and find out.
I am of the opinion that they have to give in and send Davis down for some help. Before they go crazy and promote Smoak all the way up to Arlington, I guess they need to give Blalock/Jones a chance, and maybe promote Max to take Davis' spot. I'm not against Smoak getting a chance - hey it's worked so far with Andrus - but I think you gotta try this other thing first. Problem is, Hank hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire lately either.
But Davis needs to go down. I'm sick of seeing him strike out - and someone down there needs to teach him how to take a walk.
And hit a fastball :)
Sorry, Chris - I know that was a cheap shot.
Its time to send Davis down for a few weeks, but I don't think it's time to bring Smoak up. Call up Huffman as a short term replacement at 1st until Davis comes back up. The other alternative I'd consider is trading for Adrian Gonzalez (whose contract is also much smaller than Johnson's). He would provide the discipline this lineup needs and protect Hamilton when he returns. He would also have significant trade value if Texas wants to trade him again after Davis/Smoak are ready.
Do the Smoak thingy. I'm not ready to pull the Nick Johnson cord just yet. The advantage to going with Smoak is that the prospects are saved. I don't want to toss them into a trade just yet. I really feel that we should be playing for 2010/2011 right now. I don't see holding off the Angels much longer.
The Rangers will not secure a playoff spot this year, regardless of the type of trade they may pull off. Build for 2010 and 2011. The Rangers should strongly consider "selling" in the July 09 market. Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, Jarod Saltalamacchia, Hank Blalock, and Brandon McCarthy are talents that can be moved without disrupting the championship plan.
Isn't Smoak barely hitting .200 against LH'ers? We'd have to keep Jones and his .211 BA since May 1 around just to platoon with him when we should be looking to dump Jones.
Send Boggs down and call up Esteban German who can give Kinsler and Young the odd breather at 2B and 3B respectively, and he can also play LF against LH'ers. Most importantly, in OKC he's proving to be an OBP machine who can steal bases. He has always been able to draw walks throughout his career. Plugging him into the odd game at the leadoff spot might make for a nice spark.
Good feedback, all -- regarding Moreland, I briefly considered him while writing this up, but I don't know that I buy him as a realistic possibility right now (of course, Smoak isn't terribly realistic in the grand scheme of things either)...I do wish he had been challenged a bit more last year and hadn't spent the entirety of the season at Clinton (where he was slightly old for his league), because we might know more about him right now if he had. Moreland might be able to come up right now and hit something like .265/.300/.400, and in that sense he would be a better option than Davis is right now, but that's still a fairly marginal improvement.
Also, I don't want to put words into Jason's mouth, but when Moreland's name came up in a recent conversation between us, I didn't come away with the feeling that he was quite as high on his (offensive) upside as some others are.
As for how I would personally solve the offensive dilemma, I think I swallow hard, close my eyes and demote Davis to Frisco while rolling with Jones/Blalock as everyday players and giving Boggs an expanded role. Andruw, as most of us know, hasn't really been an adequate hitter since around the first week of May (since May 8th, he has hit .187/.250/.427 in 84 PA, a batting line which with a bit more slugging percentage would sorta resemble Victor Diaz's), and Blalock might have the worst plate approach of any notable Rangers hitter in recent memory, but from a pure production standpoint they're the safest options.
[Brett Perryman, by the way, has a pretty solid post looking at the Smoak option, one with which I largely concur. Synopsis: Tap the breaks. I would submit that the 40-man situation may not be as dire this winter as it has in winters past, given that the only slam-dunk add is Neftali Feliz (after which you get into the second tier comprising guys like Michael Ballard, Fabio Castillo, Brennan Garr, Beau Jones, Michael Kirkman, Zach Phillips and Manny Pina -- all interesting players, but none of whom might be selected in the Rule 5), and at the rate things are going Smoak is probably on a trajectory for a September cameo anyway, so there's that.]
TL: Byrd and Blalock probably won't fetch all that much at this point, and the concerns over McCarthy's health have probably decimated his trade value to a point where Texas might as well hang onto him.
Hi, Y'all.
The principle behind Option 3 is good, but not for the sake of what the reinforcements will do-- rather for the sake of giving the regulars more playing time.
As we wrap up Interleague play, we can do without one bench player. As the dog days of summer exhaust pitchers earlier, we could use one more reliever. Let's carry 12 hitters/13 pitchers after these series with AZ & SD.
Aren't we about to have to "use or lose" Nippert & Eyer (Aren't both out of options?)
The Rangers' bad spell is a perfect time to shake things up FOR THE SAKE OF DEVELOPMENT.
Developing Davis (in Arlington) through this season-long fault, platooning Murphy vs. righties/ BBogg's vs. lefties (and using his slick fielding & running in a pinch), seeing Nip & Eyer ASAP, bringing up Max & using our 3rd C on any given night as our DH, before choosing which C to trade this winter-- these are all aspects of development WE NEED to happen if we're going to grow into a playoff caliber team by next year.
Why not do so when we need a shake-up anyway?
This bad spell is Management's perfect excuse to cut bait with Hank, AJones, & Eddie via trade if they can, even if not for much. The value is in the chance for us to see Boggs and an extra pitcher before JH gets back from the DL, and to start playing our 2010 roster, and especially to prep Davis for 2010. If-- come October-- we happen to have won the pennant, that's great-- it probably couldn't have happened had we left things status quo.
But there's certainly no sense in risking 2010-2016 for the sake of vaguely sniffing at one round of playoffs. We know how to prepare for the future. We don't know how to fix the present. Let's go with what we know.
I would have saved time had I first read-- and then just posted-- this excellent article by Gil LeBreton:
http://www.star-telegram.com/284/story/1445638.html
Long time no see, Mike. Nice to have you drop back around. Hyperlinked the Lebreton piece (I really need to start to start linking the daily stuff consistently again).
Some thoughts:
- Nippert is out of options, but Eyre has two options remaining, so there's no real impetus to rush Eyre back into action. I'm also not sure that Nippert is guaranteed anything at this point, particularly since Grilli (the presumptive long man) appears at least somewhat serviceable right now and Nippert has never had the control to match his superb raw stuff. If you designate Nippert for assignment, I'm not sure he doesn't clear waivers -- the greater hindrance is that Nippert can block any attempt by the Rangers to outright him to OKC and immediately take his free agency, which he may or may not elect to do and which I'm not qualified to make a judgment call on at this time.
- Regarding the delicate balance between pitchers and hitters, the prevailing thought is that teams are better served carrying more hitters, not fewer -- and I have to inquire, who would you cut to make room for a potentially superfluous eighth reliever?
- Liked seeing Lebreton throw some much-deserved props in the direction of Boggs, but I felt the general tenor of the piece was a tad strange. The future undoubtedly has to remain at the forefront of the front office's consciousness, but I can't even begin to fathom the discouragement that would develop among the fans and the players if Texas were still in first place (or at least within shooting distance -- say, three games or fewer near the trade deadline) and dealt multiple veterans in rapid succession. It all goes back to the one thing I've been continuously harping on -- the difficulty the Rangers have, and will continue, to encounter in attempting to reconcile the present with the future.