Revisiting Chris Davis: The Plight Of A Contact-Averse Hitter
Chris Davis flips his bat in disgust after striking out during the second game of a day-night home doubleheader on Friday, May 29th.It was three days ago that Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels overtly affirmed his confidence in continually struggling first baseman Chris Davis, profoundly stating that "young players can be frustrating at times, but we can't commit to playing the kids and then bail on them when they struggle."
For reasons which should be patently obvious to all, reason and rationality must prevail over instinct and raw emotion where this organization's key decision-makers are concerned (for we all know the terrible price that will be paid if they don't), and I'm certainly not in any sort of position to contradict Daniels' assessment of how the Rangers should best handle their bountiful young talent.
However, it should be noted that Daniels did acknowledge back on May 28th that the Rangers' patience with respect to Davis was, in fact, finite, and that he would have to implement the adjustments prescribed by his coaches in order to attain more leash.
It's now the morning of June 19th, and Chris Davis -- the player whom I have repeatedly defended in this space and have previously advocated keeping in the majors, if for no other reason than that Davis's defense at first base was good enough to merit keeping him around -- is hitting .201/.257/.425 over 230 plate appearances, with a similarly abysmal .146/.200/.270 performance over a 95-plate appearance sample comprising his batting ledger from May 16th through June 17th.
After reportedly working with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo during his two-day respite from the starting lineup at the tail end of the month of May (immediately following an 0-for-7, six-strikeout showing during the day-night doubleheader depicted in this article's photo), Davis responded with a 6-for-12, three-double outburst in New York and Boston ... and has since gone 5-for-33 with 16 strikeouts to just three walks, indicating that whatever lightning he might have momentarily entrapped within a bottle has since escaped.
His lone hit in a 1-for-4, two-strikeout showing during Thursday evening's deflating season series finale against the Astros -- a game which the Rangers led by a 3-0 margin going into the top of the fifth inning, but ultimately lost 5-3 -- was a line drive deposited into the third row of Section 46 in right field, which would be particular cause for celebration if it had been clobbered off anything other than an off-speed pitch ... but it wasn't, for the pitch that Davis clubbed for his 13th home run of the regular season was a mislocated 83 mph Brandon Backe change-up which caught just a bit too much of the plate.
According to data mined from MLB.com's Enhanced Gameday application, Davis is hitting a nigh-unfathomable .206 against fastballs thus far in 2009 and resides among the very worst fastball hitters in the game right now (1.62 runs below average per 100 fastballs, the eighth-worst mark among all qualifying hitters in baseball), with plate discipline numbers which indicate that he's receiving very few actual pitches within the strike zone from opposing pitchers; yet, he persists in swinging -- and missing -- inordinately often, all of which serves to reflect his major league-worst swinging strike percentage of 42.1 percent. The fastball is his proverbial Achilles' heel, a pitch which the league is utilizing to full effect against Davis in an attempt to exploit perhaps the single largest vulnerability of any hitter who currently resides on the Rangers' active roster.
Said one scout of Davis's offensive plight in the latest weekly iteration of Jayson Stark's latest ESPN.com "Rumblings & Grumblings" column: "They've got to send [him] back [to the minors]. This kid has lost all feel for the strike zone. They can't let him keep going on a 250-strikeout pace. You can get him out anywhere in the strike zone right now."
The calendar indicates that we're not yet at the regular season's midway point, yet the hour grows increasingly late on Davis's 2009 major league campaign. I'm really not sure how much longer his defensive talents can impede what has to be an increasingly strong sentiment within the front office to take action, nor am I really sure which course of action is the correct one to pursue, but I do know that his baffling inability to make anything remotely resembling consistent contact is undermining his entire offensive game to such an extent that he has become baseball's equivalent of a cipher -- that is, a player who cannot even muster replacement level-caliber production, even with the defensive element included.
I wish I had all the answers, but I don't. The only thing I do definitively know is that I'm at my wit's end. Are you?
10 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (10)
I am also at my wit's end. Crush was the player I was most excited to watch this year and he has been such a disappointment at the plate. If Smoak comes back healthy and starts wearing out AA pitching again would he be our best option before the waiver deadline? I just can't imagine giving up prospects for a rental type (Aubrey Huff or Nick Johnson) and Hank isn't an option for me as his defense would probably make him a worse replacement.
I hope JD does something with Davis and the DH situation before they end up 5 games in back of the Angels.
Hitters hit. Davis is a hitter. He'll hit.
But hitters also need at times to regroup, re-focus on their basic swing mechanics, and to relearn how to relax at the plate. For as young a player as Davis is, in the slump that he's in, that can't be done facing major league pitching.
I'm now on the side that says he needs to go down to get his issues fixed. He can't be working on developmental stuff while trying to be a productive component to the line-up. That only exacerbates the problem.
Every time I get ready to throw my remote at the television following a Davis strikeout... he makes a fabulous play at first base. Some of the swings he takes I would swear there was a hole in his bat. His swing looks so long and slow. It's a real love/hate relationship with Davis right now. I have to say that everytime he comes to the plate... I'm betting on a strikeout. I have no confidence in him. Although, his defensive play is awesome and I have absolute confidence in that.
I'm real interested to see what their solution to the problem is because I agree with I'm With Incaviglia that we don't need to be giving up prospects for a rental. I don't want to see Smoak up too early either... but Davis does need some time to figure out the strike zone again and learn how to hit the fastball... hell... at least foul tip the fastball!
The Angels are gaining fast... we need guys on base and batters working the pitchers... that's something Davis (and others) are woefully bad at doing right now.
Let's pump the breaks here. I agree that Davis has had horrendous pitch recognition and equally horrendous handling of fastballs, but there really is no other option. If the Rangers are committed to defense (as they so adamantly have repeated) then a platoon of Blalock and Jones at first is unacceptable. Davis has been as good as anybody there and nobody, not even Smoak, should push him out. We have all seen what he is capable of. And it not like he has always been an all-or-nothing hitter as he did hit .280 last year and, in the minors, has hit in the .330s with a plus .400 OBP. Yes, his swing is way, way too long with far too many moving parts, but the time to address that is the off-season, when it NEEDS to happen.
As a side note, yes Smoak has hit for a high average thus far, but in 151 ABs he has hit 6 homers and 25 RBIs in Frisco. I know there not going to pitch to him all that much but there needs to be better power numbers than that, right? Also, I've seen him play first base and he is good, but Davis is better. Smoak should be the future DH and Davis at first base if you ask me.
Let's let the 22 year old take his lumps, but he needs to take them with the Rangers.
Yeah, I'm about ready for him to be sent down myself. I'd think that he'll probably get the rest of June, but if he doesn't make major strides in the next two weeks, I don't see how we can keep him up here.
Of course, we'll need to find a replacement for him - Blalock needs to be protected from lefties, and Smoak should spend at least as much time in OKC as Davis did last year before he's called up. Josh Willingham of the Nats is at the top of my wishlist, and I'd gladly settle for his teammate Nick Johnson (although they both admittedly would make better DH's than first base options, but we need to get their kind of hitter in here one way or the other).
I've been defending Davis' staying up but I'm throwing in the towel. There's nothing wrong with his mechanics, he's just lost, as Stark put it, "all feel for the strike zone." I think they've shown extreme patience and I applaud that, but it's time to make a change. Pitcher's aren't thowing him fastballs in fastball counts because they simply don't have to. He can't tell the difference. I'm not sure what could be lost at this point by sending him back to Oklahoma, other than his defense. It will be missed, but the snarled mess that is Chris Davis' offensive game has become too much to bear over too long a period.
Joey, i think its up to you and me to do something.
We have to take all the signed Davis cards we got in December, and burn them.......
Its the only cure for this curse right?
Perhaps I will bring my McCarthy and Hurely as well.
I'd bring the Jason Botts, but I think its too late for that.
Id give him another month and see how it goes. Once Smoak is completely healthy, if he keeps up his pace I wouldnt mind seeing him and Chris swap spots on the roster for a little while and see how it goes. Maybe a few weeks back on the farm would do Chris some good, but, It looks like Murph is starting to find a groove, and once Hammy comes back, I think we'll see our offense get back on track overall, and can therefore better compensate for Davis's struggles if they continue. I keep thinking of how much Carlos Pena was striking out for Tampa before he came around and I hope that Davis can be him for us.
What the scout told Jayson Stark isn't backed up by the numbers. Admittedly, Davis seems to be taking a few too many called third strikes on top of all the swinging and missing, but his plate discipline numbers aren't far out of line with his 2008 numbers. The only real difference in his plate discipline numbers is that he's making less contact. He's actually chasing balls less often than in 2008.
In watching Davis swing at fastballs, two things are pretty evident. He's dragging his hands way behind his head and front shoulder. Davis has a very "twisty" swing that has had him pulling his hands through the zone instead of driving them through the ball.
When he recognizes an off-speed pitch, he stays focused on the ball longer and actually sees his bat come through the zone to the baseball. On fastballs, it looks like he's trying to swing harder to "catch up" to the ball. His head and front shoulder pull out, his hands drag, and the ball beats his bat through the zone.
Right before Davis exploded in the NYY and BOS series, I told Joey that he was about to snap out of it. I saw the way he was swinging at fastballs, and I was digging it. Like Joey said, though, whatever he had found, he's since lost it again.
The way he's crushing off-speed pitches right now, it's amazing that he sees any at all. When he does get his fastball swing back, he's going to terrorize pitchers. I don't think it will be a gradual fix, either. He's going to explode.