The Chemistry Of A Win: Rangers Follow Key Tenets, Defeat Astros
Marlon Byrd congratulates Ian Kinsler as he crosses home plate following David Murphy's walk-off RBI single on Wednesday, June 17th.It was a little less than three years ago that former Baseball Prospectus managing partner Nate Silver first articulated the concept of "secret sauce," an amalgamation of characteristics of good teams which most strongly correlate with post-season success and all, not surprisingly, relate to run prevention: a power pitching staff (as measured by strikeout rate), a quality closer and an air-tight defense.
Even daring to mention the P-word -- and yes, by P-word I'm referring to post-season -- when the Texas Rangers wield just a two-game lead over the second-place Angels might well constitute an act of fate-tempting, but the recent rash of injuries which befell Texas has now mutated into a larger-scale pandemic afflicting the Rangers' closest foes in the standings: Mariners left-hander Erik Bedard has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation and will be examined by famed orthopedic surgeon Dr. Lewis Yocum later today (which obviously does not portend well for his trade value), and while no structural damage was detected in the ailing right arm of Anaheim's Ervin Santana, a reassuring medical assessment does nothing to mitigate his continued lackluster velocity and corresponding ineffectiveness. Yes, Texas remain plenty vulnerable, but the holes in the competition are widening.
The Rangers implemented each of the above elements into their game plan to a certain extent on Wednesday evening while further asserting their dominance as the preeminent major league team in the state, overcoming both missed opportunities and the admittedly thrilling distraction of Pudge v.2.0 surpassing Pudge v.1.0 in the career games caught department en route to a 10-inning walk-off thriller:
POWER PITCHING: The contact-oriented pitching philosophy that has been espoused by key organizational decision-makers and vertically integrated throughout the system does indeed conserve pitches and, in theory, enable starting pitchers to run deeper into games by virtue of those lower pitch counts -- but at some point, you have to be able to miss some bats, if not to such a large degree during the regular season then certainly during the post-season.
Not surprisingly, Texas currently ranks dead last in the majors in terms of strikeouts amassed per nine innings (5.30, or 11.8 percent worse than last year's mark of 6.01 strikeouts per nine innings) and figures to continue doing so until the litany of young power arms scattered throughout the farm system attain major league status and begin inducing more respectable quantities of swinging strikes.
The average American League team entered Wednesday notching approximately 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings, a benchmark which again eluded the Rangers' grasp against the last-place Astros but which they actually came closer to reaching with seven strikeouts in 10 innings (commensurate with 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings), thanks in no small part to the bullpen's steady effort and newly activated southpaw Matt Harrison uncharacteristically notching a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate during his adequate five-inning, 86-pitch outing -- nearly twice his seasonal average of 5.5 percent.
QUALITY CLOSING: While right-hander Frank Francisco (strained right shoulder) is vehemently denying that he needs to be "eased" back into his usual ninth-inning role, it's nevertheless safe to assume that both the front office and manager Ron Washington will closely monitor his workload in the short term -- presumably meaning that he won't be summoned to pitch in three consecutive games again anytime soon -- and, in all likelihood, retain the services of enigmatic left-hander C.J. Wilson in the ninth inning until Francisco is deemed ready.
Wilson's proclivity for making his appearances more interesting than they need to be has not precluded his nearly two-month-long stint of unhittability; since April 25th, C.J. has suppressed the competition to the tune of .207/.292/.293 over 17 innings of three-run baseball (he added two more scoreless frames of three-hit baseball on Wednesday evening and snagged the win), and in combination with Francisco's lights-out pitching abilities, the Rangers have the basis for a most formidable late-inning relief tandem -- assuming, of course, that the recurring inflammation in Francisco's arm is not indicative of a more serious malady, and that Wilson does not revert into bad habits, foremost among those being his previous tendency to attempt to squeeze too many pitch variants into a brief relief outing.
AIR-TIGHT DEFENDING: While the Rangers entered Wednesday evening's tilt with the sixth-best mark in the majors in terms of Ultimate Zone Rating (18.4 defensive runs above average) and the fourth-best mark in terms of defensive efficiency (70.9 percent batted balls-into-outs conversion rate), one of the final frontiers in the science of quantifying defense is accurately determining the true defensive value of catchers -- minus "game-calling," which is about as immeasurable and unquantifiable as the concept of team chemistry.
On what was undoubtedly Pudge v.2.0's night to bask in the limelight for one of the final times in his storied 19-year major league career (a career which should culminate in a first-ballot election to Cooperstown, irrespective of the suspicion which will continue to follow both him and others of his era), Rangers catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia put on a ninth-inning defensive showcase for a faithful Arlington contingent composed of fans from both sides of the I-45 rivalry.
After fully extending his arms in order to drive a third-inning solo blast to straightaway center field off Astros right-hander Russ Ortiz (which briefly vaulted Texas into a 2-1 lead), Saltalamacchia twice gunned down baserunners at second base during the game's penultimate frame, first swiftly pouncing upon a Michael Bourn sacrifice bunt and making a strong, albeit risky throw to force out Jason Michaels, then gunning down Bourn moments later during an abortive steal attempt to bail C.J. Wilson out of a most precarious situation; considering the context of the situation and the utter perfection of the throw, the latter putout might have been his finest defensive moment as a Ranger. There was nowhere else he could have put that ball to nail Bourn except right where he put it, and the speed with which he sprang from his crouched position and fired that precision-guided missile was reminiscent of ... well, Pudge himself.
This is not a truly great team by any means, and it's imperative to reiterate that the Astros are a last-place team (ergo, don't get too terribly excited about this one win), but it's a good team with a more than legitimate shot at claiming the divisional crown ... and if that should indeed happen, the Rangers should possess at least two of the characteristics which are so integral to post-season success. That, my friends, is why you pull the trigger on a mid-season deal designed to bolster your odds of playing beyond game 162 if the price in terms of talent is not inordinate and/or unreasonable. If the opportunity is there, you take the shot.
The overriding questions: Will Texas take that shot, and if so, how much is that shot going to cost?
7 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (7)
Nice writing, Mr. Joey M., as usual. As an older fan, I have enjoyed watching great hitters, like George Brett; great pitchers, like Nolan Ryan. But really and truly, some of the biggest thrills I had were watching the great defensive plays by Pudge v. 2.0 (clever) and Sunny. I LOVE it when a catcher nails a guy trying to steal. A great defensive play always seems to have a demoralizing effect on the opponents -- it helps all phases of the game leading to a win. So, among all the nice signs coming from this team this year, in my mind, the development of Salty's defensive capabilities is right there with our new shortstop and the improved pitching.
I would still like to know why Washington thought it would be a good idea to bring in O'Day in the 7th and Everyday Eddie in the 8th. O'Day has been lights out...Guardado...not so much. I'm happy we won, but that decision really bothered me. Why is he in there in such a high leverage situation?
Am I the only person on the planet who hates being a fan of a baseball team that feels compelled to make a trade before the deadline to help the team's chances for a playoff run? Obtaining a major leaguer who is good enough to make a difference in the playoffs typically costs a team multiple youngsters with greater upside and far more years of team control. Even trades that enable a team to make the playoffs (Sabathia for Laporta, Alexander for Smoltz, Johnson for Garcia/Guillen/Halama) invariably look like failures after a few years have passed.
If the Rangers can upgrade a position without giving up much talent, then by all means they should do so. The problem is that unless you can take on bad contracts, it is hard to get a quality major leaguer without giving up minor leaguers who are more talented.
Do you have information on t he k% for the pitching staff and where it ranks (and also compared to last year)? If you face fewer batters per inning on average, your k/9 would likely be lower.
Joey: I just want to say how much I enjoy your expertise...and my admiration is divided equally between your astute baseball analysis and your extraordinarily amazing writing skill. Usually one only finds this kind of writing in an occasional Sports Illustrated piece. I wonder how long before they discover you?
Hagelbed: I'm really not sure what else Washington could have done in that situation...in this context, the mistake was pitching Jennings in a five-run game the day before and pitching Guardado in a tied game, which is pretty much the opposite of what you want to do right now. Washington committed his mistake the day before.
David: Agreed, and I've been meaning to write a more in-depth post on this...judging by the tone of Daniels and the direction this market appears to be headed in, I'll be pretty stunned if Texas acquires a league-average or better starting pitcher via trade this summer (which includes the Oswalt/Halladay/:Peavy/Bedard quartet, none of whom might actually be dealt). Caution has to be exercised in this regard.
Telegraph: Good call -- I went rooting around for team strikeout percentages last night and couldn't find any, so I went the easy route when I probably should have done the calculations myself...using BR data as of this morning (including last night's games), the Rangers' team pitching strikeout rate of 13.64 percent is still percentage points worse than the Pirates's strikeout rate (13.69 percent), and the Rangers do still rank dead last in the majors in strikeout rate (ML average is 17.64 percent), so very little has changed in this regard. Texas was 28th in the majors last year (14.8 percent), although using K/PA as opposed to K/9IP yields a percentage drop of only 7.84 percent.
Thanks for the kind words, all.
Couple more things:
- Regarding the whole "bunt vs. don't bunt" thing, I think the whole thing is getting blown way out of proportion, and my instinct is that the percentage differences between the available options in terms of getting that run home are miniscule. I don't fault Washington for allowing Davis and Saltalamacchia to bat, but I can also buy into the line of thought that dictates that he should have used Andrus to pinch-bunt (is there such a thing as pinch-bunting?).
What did piss me off was pulling Omar for Andruw, and not because of the whole "well, he can surpass Aparicio's hits record at home and potentially do it in walk-off style" thing, or because he looked so disheartened when he got pulled back by Washington...the manager's reasoning for the decision was that Andruw had "faced Valverde before and his numbers were pretty good against him," but that ignores the fact that Andruw's "pretty good numbers" against Valverde amounted to a 2-for-4 showing, and there is absolutely NO predictive value in a four-PA sample. None.
Plus, in that situation you're looking for somebody who can hit for average and put the ball into play with two outs...Omar's contact percentage and batting average are both substantially higher than Andruw's in 2009, and then you also get into the whole lefty vs. righty thing and the whole summoning-Andruw's-cold-bat-off-the-bench thing...that decision, in my mind, was far more questionable than the decision to not bunt.
- New post up in the Clubhouse about Scheppers' allegedly damaged shoulder (an assessment which doesn't dovetail with Dr. Lewis Yocum's or the Rangers' assessments) and the increasingly bizarre Guillermo Pimentel situation.
- Jim Reeves has a really strange piece extolling the merits of Ruben Sierra as a Rangers Hall of Famer, with the apparent evidence of Sierra not being a roider amounting to (a) Sierra hitting really well during his age-24 season and (b) Sierra not being named in Canseco's book. Well, okay.
Meanwhile, Reeves won't vote Palmeiro or Gonzalez into the Rangers HOF because, well, they both have the "steroid issue" surrounding them (never mind that Gonzalez never actually tested positive for PEDs to the public's knowledge, with the evidence against him being entirely circumstantial and anecdotal)...I was telling somebody last night that it's going to look pretty funny in a few years when Palmeiro and Gonzalez aren't in the Rangers HOF but the list of potential inductees has shrunk to the point where they might have to induct the likes of Kevin Elster and his ilk. And what of the suspicion that has long surrounded Pudge? Is he just automatically given a free pass from all of this because he was a particular favorite of the fans/media? So much hypocrisy.
Would I put Sierra in? Sure. I'd put everybody else deserving of the honor in as well, regardless of the PED witchhunt which so many seem so eager to join.
- Finally, Sports Justice is busy ripping Carlos Lee for not hustling on that 10th-inning grounder which Andrus flubbed but recovered on last night, ignoring that Lee has been dealing with a strained hamstring. The sentiment is in the right place (Lee's hustle has been called into question before), but calling out an injured player running at probably 75 percent of his full capacity seems pretty ill-timed.