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Tuesday
16Jun2009

The Great June Swoon: Dissecting The Rangers' Offensive Struggles

The Texas Rangers watch from the dugout in dismay as the Toronto Blue Jays surge towards a 6-3 win on Monday, June 8th.If there is anything positive to be derived from the second-place Angels' halving of the Texas Rangers' rapidly dissipating divisional lead -- which now sits at a mere two games, the smallest the chasm between the two rivals has been since May 22nd -- over these last 72 deflating hours, it is that the Rangers managed to play roughly .500-caliber baseball during perhaps the toughest 19-game stretch of the 2009 regular season and stoutly defended their first-place standing.

Of their next 12 games (all of which will be played against National League clubs, thus concluding the interleague portion of the Rangers' schedule), nine will be played against sub-.500 teams and six will be played against last-place teams, after which Texas is slated to grapple with Anaheim six more times before the All-Star break.

But while the Rangers might control their own destiny, the offensive success which was so integral to their previous forging of a games-above-.500 mark in the double digits is now eluding their grasp, threatening to divest Texas of that first-place standing and consequently open the door for the rest of the division to surge ahead of the injury-beset divisional front-runner.

Three weeks ago, we highlighted the correlation between run production and plate discipline at the major league level, discovering that just two teams over the last five seasons have plated 800-plus runs and concurrently notched seasonal walks-to-strikeouts ratios lower than 0.44 -- those two teams being the 2006 Tigers and 2007 Rangers -- and surmising that the Rangers would have to radically improve in this respect or run the risk of compromising their previously prolific run production; unfortunately, Texas is not improving in terms of plate discipline, but rather actively regressing, and the fallout is acting as a serious detriment to the lineup's ability to buttress the pitching staff's efforts:

Texas Rangers 2009 Offensive Statistics (06/16/09)
Month PA R/G BB/K O-Swing %
O-Contact %
Zone wOBA
April
823
5.86
0.34
27.2%
55.3%
48.7%
.360
May
1112
5.10
0.41
28.6%
59.0%
45.6%
.354
June
424
3.25
0.27
29.6%
54.9%
43.9%
.278
Total
2359
5.00
0.36
28.3%
57.1%
46.4%
.342
League Average
- - -
4.80
0.52
24.8%
62.6%
48.9%
.330


['O-Swing %' is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone, 'O-Contact %' is the percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone and 'Zone' is the percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone. All data courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Standard sample size caveats obviously apply.]

Beyond the bothersome regression in the walks-to-strikeouts department (and yes, a 0.27 mark is absolutely horrendous), several more disturbing trends become readily apparent: (a) Rangers hitters have progressively been swinging at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone (and making less and less contact in the process), and (b) Rangers hitters are receiving fewer and fewer actual pitches within the strike zone to work with, the latter revelation being particularly indicative of the offense's inability to adjust and exercise better strike-zone judgment when challenged to do so by the opposition.

The league has clearly adjusted and will continue to mercilessly attack this major vulnerability in the Rangers' offensive approach until they prove capable of laying off more of these poor pitches to hit -- a development which would consequently create more hitters' counts and presumably lead to more walks, thereby forcing the league to adjust yet again, but a development which also seems light-years away right now.

Additionally, StatCorner.com utilizes a park-adjusted version of wOBA sans the baserunning element -- which is incorporated into the above wOBA figures from FanGraphs -- that further emphasizes our underlying concerns by quantifying the Rangers' offense as being 3.1 runs below average in 2009; much of this is attributable to the usual suspects (Chris Davis, Josh Hamilton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia), but the reality is that nobody is really hitting all that well right now.

And so, what do you do to remedy the problem? Venerated hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo preaches an aggressive, albeit disciplined offensive approach, but words brimming with encouragement and positivity are getting Texas nowhere fast. Reshuffling the lineup -- and yes, that includes this strange notion of bumping Ian Kinsler way down in the lineup -- strikes me as an exercise in futility; sure, it might yield temporary results, but the configuration of the batting order is not to blame for what's going on here. And while a trade for a renowned plate disciplinarian in the vein of the Marlins' Josh Willingham or the Nationals' Nick Johnson -- two names which have been bandied about with increasing frequency as the Rangers' offense has continued to stall out -- would certainly improve matters, how much of their productivity would be lost in the transition to the American League and what would it cost Texas to acquire their services in terms of prospects?

So many questions. So few answers. This is still a first-place team, but it's a first-place team with deficiencies that have yet to be addressed and holes that have yet to be filled, and it's a first-place team which may well be a second- or third-place team if the offensive tailspin isn't quickly reversed.

Quick Hits: According to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, Texas is contemplating the possibility of moving right-hander Jason Jennings to the starting rotation (presumably relegating southpaw Derek Holland to the bullpen or Triple-A Oklahoma City); no moves appear imminent, however ... 2009 first-rounder Matt Purke on the soon-to-commence negotiating process: "I feel fairly confident in everything and I think we’ll be able to reach an agreement. In the end, both parties will be happy." ... Citing economic difficulties and uncertainty regarding the future ownership of the club, the Rangers laid off "less than 10 percent" of their 275-employee front office on Monday; these cuts were reportedly limited to the administrative side, and affected employees were offered severance packages ... Double-A Frisco right-hander Blake Beavan tossed 5.1 innings of six-run baseball in his RoughRiders debut on Monday, amassing six strikeouts and no walks; RoughRiders radio broadcaster Scott Garner extolled Beavan's mound presence and solid low-90s fastball, which he commanded well and which came equipped with "a certain explosiveness."

Reader Comments (7)

My stomach in churning. I don't know if it is due to my breakfast or what I just read. This team is at a crossroads. Make the wrong turn and this team will just join the list of other Rangers teams that teased us for a while only to succumb to thier weaknesses and take thier place in the bottom echelon of the standings. Will JD be proactive and do something before they collapse? Or does he bide his time and wait for Hamilton to return and "fix" the offense?

June 16, 2009 at 8:25 AM | Unregistered Commenterrob m

Bringing in Nick Johnson seems like a great idea in an effort to fix the Rangers woeful lack of plate discipline. Although... I wonder which one of the lucky Rangers gets to go to the worst team in baseball?

Should it be worrisome that in his last three starts the Rangers have thrown Holland against three of the best teams in baseball: Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers? Being that he's only 21 (I think) and he didn't win any of the games (although pitched fairly well until the Dodger game), wouldn't this potentially crush his psyche? Granted... if he wants success he'll have to pitch against these teams at some point but I figured they might try and start him out on some "easier" teams.

I'm sure that the Rangers know more about his demenor than I do but i was just wondering your take on it.

BTW - love BBTIA... I live in OKC and have no buddies that follow the Rangers at all so it's nice to find a forum of Ranger fans like myself on here

June 16, 2009 at 8:49 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhoenix

Johnson would be a great short term fix at first, but man - some of the big spenders are reportedly after him, so he's not going to be cheap. And if they really think Smoak is the real deal at first, then where would he fit in? DH?

It's an interesting thought - guess it depends on what kind of prospects they are going to demand. You know Johnson would love to come here.

How wacky would it be if Texas ends up having to add a bat rather than an arm in July?

June 16, 2009 at 9:24 AM | Unregistered CommenterDo you like fish stix?

Sorry about the ambiguous pronoun above. When I asked "where would he fit" I was referring to a player like Johnson.

So Texas was working on a Saito for Blalock swap. Salary dump? Saito's good, but he's 39 years old. Can't we get someone a little younger for the bullpen?

June 16, 2009 at 10:13 AM | Unregistered CommenterDo you like fish stix?

I might be interested in Willingham, but I'm not sure he would really help the lineup. I have zero interest in Johnson however. That's a guy who broke his leg running to first base. How well do you think he would hold up in the Texas heat? Not a good idea. I'd say if you're going that route, then go all out and pick up Adrian Gonzales and a reliever from San Diego. He'd be under club control for at least 1 more year, and while it would cost some prospects, it's not like we'd have room for all of them in the future anyway. With how crappy the rest of the division has been playing this is probably the best year to go for the title. Next year we could be better, but so could everyone else. Look at the Rays, they're probably just as good as they were last year but the competition has gotten tougher.

Also, if we're looking for better hitters, I'd see if Moises Alou would be interested in one more season and use him strictly as a DH. That would add some pop and patience to the lineup.

June 16, 2009 at 11:52 AM | Unregistered CommenterMike E

hey Mike E you need to get your facts right. Nick did not break his leg running to first. He broke it in a collision between him and the right fielder(Austin Kearns) on a shallow pop up to right. Just thought you should know before you pop off.

June 16, 2009 at 12:07 PM | Unregistered Commenterbaseball2323

I can't believe we actually have an argument against the one and only STRENGTH this team has had since it's inception; the OFFENSE.
I've said it on here many times... we have too many guys in the lineup with high K rates.
We've gotten by in years past because we simply mashed... but this team isn't doing it, it's really a weird thing...

I'm worried too about the future... the guys we have coming up are not big OBP types that will work the pitcher and get on base.
I do believe this "problem" pales in comparison to the pitching problems we've endured year after year. And I do believe the Rangers will snap out of this funk and start hitting... but we need to remember that we don't have 2 key pieces that we had last year; Hammy and Bradley. Those 2 were deadly in the 3/4 spot... and we have no one that can consistently fills those spots and produce.

June 16, 2009 at 2:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterPabloesque

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