Rangers Minor League Review: The 60-Game Mark
Low-A Hickory left-hander Martin Perez throws in Surprise, Arizona during 2009 spring training. - Scott Lucas/The Ranger RundownThe Rangers' four full-season minor league teams recently played their sixtieth games and are now approximately 40 percent of the way through the regular season. Hot streaks have been balanced by cold ones and the players' stats have begun to stabilize. To get a sense of who is performing well, statistics for each player in the Rangers' system were drawn from Baseball Reference and normalized to league averages. Presented below are the ten hitters, fifteen starting pitchers, and ten relievers who are having outstanding years.
POSITION PLAYERS
The selection of the top ten Rangers minor league hitters in 2009 was done using an equation that adjusts each player's OPS based upon level, age relative to league, defensive position, and whether a player is repeating the league. The league adjustment was made by dividing a player's OPS by the league-average OPS and multiplying by 100. Using this equation, hitters performing near league average will have a league-adjusted OPS of approximately 100, while better performers will have OPS's above 100 and below-average performers will have OPS's below 100.
The league-adjusted OPS for each player was then modified by crediting players who are young for their league or penalizing players who are old for their league at a rate of seven OPS points per year above or below the league-average age. Thus, a 22-year-old in the Texas League will have 14 points added to his league-adjusted OPS to account for the fact that he is two years younger than the average hitter in the league. By the same token, a 26-year-old in the Texas League will have 14 points subtracted from his league-adjusted OPS.
The OPS for each player was further modified by adding 11 points to the league-adjusted OPS for shortstops and nine points for catchers and subtracting 10 OPS points for first basemen and players who seemed destined to DH. These values were selected based upon the variance in league-average OPS for major league players who played at various positions in 2008. Finally, players who have played at the same level for more than one year were penalized 10 OPS points.
Statistics for the ten position players with the highest adjusted OPS are presented below:
League: Minor league level from which the statistics were drawn.
Age: The age of the player for the majority of the season.
Pos: Defensive position.
%K: Percentage of plate appearances that have resulted in a strikeout.
%BB: Percentage of plate appearances that have resulted in a walk.
%XBH: Percentage of hits that have been doubles, triples, or home runs.
BA*: League-adjusted batting average.
OBP*: League-adjusted on-base percentage.
SLG*: League-adjusted slugging percentage.
OPS*: League-adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage.
Adj OPS: League-, age relative to league-, defensive position-, and repeat-adjusted OPS.
For all of the league-adjusted values, >100 means that the player's performance exceeded league average.
NOTEWORTHY
● In case you hadn't noticed, Mike Bianucci is obliterating the South Atlantic League with almost half of his plentiful base hits going for extra bases.
● Frisco is now home to half of the Rangers' ten highest-performing position players.
● Manny Pina's emergence as a slightly above-average hitter at a premium defensive position in a league where he is two years younger than league average is one of the most important developments in the Rangers' system this year.
● Justin Smoak, Marcus Lemon, and Julio Borbon are all walking about as often as they strike out. Borbon's improvement from last year when he had an 11 percent strikeout rate and 5 percent walk rate is noteworthy, though his reduced batting average versus more advanced pitchers has led to a slight decrease in his on-base percentage (.362 in 2008 vs .354 in 2009).
● Mitch Moreland's ability to hit the ball hard (45 percent extra-base hit rate) while maintaining a low strikeout rate (13 percent strikeout rate) is unusual. The only major leaguer who is even close to matching those rates is Victor Martinez, with a 35 percent extra-base hit rate and 12 percent strikeout rate.
● Greg Golson's performance in 2009 is largely indistinguishable from his more acclaimed teammate, Julio Borbon. Although Golson's 22 percent strikeout rate is too high, that does represent an improvement relative to 2008 when he struck out in more than 28 percent of his plate appearances.
● The most notable exception from the list of top-performers is Max Ramirez, whose hitting in 2009 has been shockingly bad (32 percent strikeout rate, 6 percent walk rate, .624 OPS).
PITCHERS
Like the position players, the statistics for the Rangers' minor league pitchers were league-adjusted by calculating the ratios of each player's statistical rates to the league averages for the same statistics and then multiplying by 100. League-adjusted values greater than 100 indicate that the pitcher is performing better than the league-average pitcher.
Overall performances for each of the pitchers in the Rangers system were calculated by first averaging the league-adjusted WHIP and strikeout rates for each pitcher. The league-adjusted WHIP/strikeout rate for each pitcher was further adjusted by adding or subtracting seven points for each year the pitcher's age is below or above league average. Pitchers who are repeating a level were penalized ten points. Because relievers tend to have better peripherals than starting pitchers, the two were ranked separately. Both classes are presented below.
STARTING PITCHERS
Age: The age of the player for the majority of the 2009 season.
League: Minor league level from which the statistics were drawn.
ERA*: League-adjusted earned run average.
WHIP*: League-adjusted walks and hits allowed per inning pitched.
H/9*: League-adjusted hits per nine innings pitched.
HR/9*: League-adjusted home runs per nine innings pitched.
BB/9*: League-adjusted walks per nine innings pitched.
SO/9*: League-adjusted strike outs per nine innings pitched.
SO/BB*: League-adjusted ratio of strikeouts to walks.
Overall: League-, age relative to league-, and repeat-adjusted average of WHIP + SO/9.
For all of the league-adjusted values, >100 means that the player's performance exceeded league average.
NOTEWORTHY
● An increased walk rate (4.8 BB/9) and decreased strikeout rate (8.3 K/9) have dropped Neftali Feliz's strikeouts-to-walks ratio from 2.9 in 2008 to 1.7 in 2009. On the plus side, Feliz remains difficult to hit (.238 BAA and 8.3 K/9) despite pitching to men who are 5-6 years older than him.
● Kasey Kiker is less hittable this year than last (8.2 K/9 and .292 BAA in 2008 vs. 9.1 K/9 and .218 BAA in 2009). Unfortunately, the improved control that he exhibited in 2008 (2.9 BB/9) has disappeared in 2009 (5 BB/9).
● The knock on Martin Perez and Wilfredo Boscan last year was that they were hittable (.274 and .251 BAA, respectively). This year, Boscan has been ridiculously good (.171 BAA) and Perez has been very good (.240 BAA and 10.1 K/9).
● Statistically, Omar Poveda and Blake Beavan have been very similar pitchers in 2009. Both are very young for their leagues and have been above average in every statistical category except strikeout rate; Poveda's (5 K/9) is far below his career average, while Beavan's (6.3 K/9) is an improvement.
● Kennil Gomez has been the statistical opposite of Poveda and Beavan, posting slightly below-average numbers in every category except strikeout rate (10 K/9).
● Using Pitch f/x data from his major league starts, it appears that Tommy Hunter's fastball velocity is off this year (91.2 mph in 2008 vs. 89.2 mph in 2009). That probably explains why Hunter has been more hittable in 2009 (.300 BAA).
RELIEF PITCHERS
[Column descriptions are the same as for starting pitchers.]
NOTEWORTHY
● Zach Phillips, Yoon-Hee Nam, Beau Jones, Corey Young, Ryan Falcon, A.J. Murray, and Mike Hinckley make left-handed relief the strength of the Rangers' minor league system. Intriguingly, all but Hinckley have pitched extremely well against right-handed hitters, suggesting that the pitchers could be more than LOOGYs.
● Matt Nevarez and Adalberto Flores have both dominated opposing hitters. Opponents have a .127 batting average and are striking out at a rate of 14.1 times per nine innings versus Nevarez. Flores has been almost as good (.229 BAA and 12.8 K/9).
● Tanner Roark is making a splash with 10.9 strikeouts and only 2.1 walks per nine innings. He has been more hittable than Nevarez and Flores (.265 BAA), but his outstanding control has allowed him to maintain a very low WHIP and ERA.
LOOKING AHEAD
Sixty percent of the season remains to be played. Strong second halves from Pina, Moreland, Bianucci, Nevarez, Phillips, and Nam could cement their standing as compelling prospects. Beavan, Boscan, Neil Ramirez, and Borbon could garner consideration as top-100 prospects if they play well in the next three months. And Ramirez, Engel Beltre, Pedro Strop and Michael Main can use the second half to erase memories of the first. Along with signing Tanner Scheppers and Matt Purke, these are the things that will determine where the Rangers' minor league system ranks at the end of 2009.
14 Comments | in Analysis, Prospects, The Season
Reader Comments (14)
David, this is awesome, and you've only got the tip of the iceberg here. I think the age relative to league thing is tricky. At AA and AAA I think a lot of the age factor is skewed by organizational soldier types who aren't really good at hitting or pitching. I think you could make a case that it is more significant to be a year older or younger than league average in Hickory than it is in OKC.
For me, personally, I'm less impressed with both Bianucci and Lemon because of this. Not to say Bianucci isn't having an awesome year; he most certainly is. But it tempers your excitement just a tiny bit even though the SAL league is a very low run scoring environment this year. He needs to be promoted very soon to be challenged. I'd hate to see them leave him there all year like they did with Moreland last season.
Lemon is young for AA, but you could chalk up his rating to a ridiculously hot streak at the beginning of the season. Since then he's been pretty meh.
Pina's season has been very intriguing. He is both striking out and walking more often after not doing much of either in previous years, but the K rate is still under control. His April hot streak was supported by a VERY high BaBIP (.537), then he slumped in May and has recovered a bit in June. Both months feature a low BaBIP, but still kept a line drive rate much higher than his 3 seasons. Very encouraging.
My daughter is waking up, I hope to post more thoughts later in the day, a lot to digest above!
Oh, and I meant to ask with the age thing, how did you decide on 7 points per year? Overall, I like your approach and the importance you placed on making the stats relative to the league.
I think its pretty obvious that Pina is getting stronger, thus improving his contact. His power is up too, definitely a great sign to see from a kid who's still 21. Hopefully he continues to get stronger, b/c his low K rates mean good things for him if he continues to add to his ability to hit the ball hard.
Thanks for the comments, t ball. More of your thoughts in the comments section would be great. I hope that this can become a nice discussion of the Rangers minor league system.
You are right that the league average ages for AA and AAA players are affected by career minor leaguers, though the effect is probably not as significant as you might expect. According to baseball reference, the average ages for the four leagues are: AAA - 26.7, AA - 24, A+ - 22.9, A - 21.6. For what it is worth, using age relative to league as a factor to predict future major league success is far more accurate in AA and AAA than in A.
Your comments on Bianucci and Pina are spot on. I am still withholding judgment on Lemon. I like the fact that he significantly increased his walk rate after he cooled off at the plate. Now he needs to get the bat going again or he might finish a season with a sub-700 OPS for the first time in his career.
The 7 point bonus/penalty derives from a study that I did earlier this year that suggests that young players improve by ~7% per year (http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/4/18/843580/early-season-prospecting). Taking Lemon as an example, Marcus recently turned 21 which is 3 years younger than the Texas League average. Assuming Lemon increased his OPS by 7% per year, then his OPS would be predicted to be 21% higher than it is this year. Because everything is normalized to 100, Lemon's age-adjusted OPS is 21 points higher than his actual OPS.
It is hard not to get excited about a young AA catcher with an 826 OPS. I thought coming into the year that Pina needed to improve his walk-rate to improve his chances of becoming a legitimate prospect. His walk-rate hasn't improved but his increased BA and SLG have really made a big difference.
I've tried to find comparables for Pina without a lot of success. In recent history, Geovany Soto is an example of a catcher who broke out after being an ~700 OPS catcher. Of course, Soto's breakout happened as a 24 yo in AAA and came with a lot more power than what Pina is exhibiting (Soto - 652 SLG vs Pina - 458 SLG).
Just in case Jason Parks drops by, it is worth pointing out that the statistical analysis provided above is not intended to be a commentary on who the best prospects are in the Rangers' system. Because developmental milestones are far more important than statistical ones for minor leaguers, it is very likely that many players would be posting better numbers if they were playing to their strengths rather than working on their weaknesses.
I am travelling today and will be without internet access until late this afternoon. Please add comments and questions through the day. I should have answers to any of your questions posted this evening.
Wow... awesome read! This is great stuff!
Quick, slighty off subject question; has anyone identified the issues that Main is struggling with right now?
And 1 premature question; if he continues to struggle for say the next 2-4 years, is there any chance he's converted to an OFer? (see Ankiel)
I know, it's a ridiculous question to ask but I remember when he was drafted that some thought he might be a better position player than pitcher. So, I was just curious if the Rangers development staff has tabbed him as a guy to evaluate with this in mind.
Amazing Information. Thanks
Just wondering, what is Fabio Castillo's Adjusted OPS?
Some additional thoughts...Lemon still looks like a future big leaguer to me, but not sure he'll be an everyday player.
Beavan, Bleier, Hunter, and Boscan are awesome at not walking batter. That's the one area in which Beavan strongly differs from Poveda. Actually, I think Beavan differs from Poveda in every area, and after a slow start in the Cal League he's really put it together. His K rate is picking up, while the walk and HR rates stay very low. And his velocity has ticked up this year as well, working in the low 90s. Beavan really looks good, hope he takes well to AA.
I'm not sure what to think about Kirkman yet. He's had a nice return after being injured and his ERA was sexy, but the only peripheral that really stands out is the HR rate, which has always been a strength of his. On a related note, is there another organization with anywhere near as many intriguing lefthanded pitchers other than the Rangers?
David, I really like your cautionary notes and well rounded approach. Everyone needs to heed the warning to pay attention to scouting reports as much as the stats. And the emphasis here on age relative to league, and adjusting our expectations based on the run scoring environments for each league are very smart. The SAL and Cal leagues could hardly be more different, and if a Boscan seems to lose some luster moving from Hickory to Bakersfield we need to cut him some slack and look a little deeper.
I hope Beavan realizes that he is going from the Ranger fans' magnifying glass to the microscope. Well actually I hope he doesn't realize anything and just goes out an continues doing what he has been doing. I look forward to seeing him on Sat. at Frisco.
Spurdy Nasty, what a masterpiece, I truly enjoyed reading it.
Thanks for all of the comments today.
Pabloesque - I don't know what Main's physical issue(s) might be, but statistically he is completely off his game. He's giving up hits (11.7/9IP), walks (6/9IP), and HR's (1.5/9IP) at rates that are approximately double his career averages. His strikeout rate (7.5/9IP) is well below his career average. It seems that pitchers who rely on curveballs tend to have more trouble in the Cal league than pitchers with sliders, but Main's problems go well beyond his breaking ball. For what it is worth, John Dank's first thirteen games in the Cal League weren't much better than Main's first thirteen (10.1 H/9IP, 4.3 BB/9IP, 7.9 K/9IP, 5.24 ERA).
Patrick - Castillo's Overall pitching number is 103. His K-rate (6.9/9IP) and walk-rate (3.6/9IP) are both slightly below league average. I know that the talent is intriguing, but his numbers continue to suggest that he is unlikely to progress to the majors.
t ball - Poveda's walk-rate (3.3/9IP) this year is back to where it was before his time in the Cal League. I agree that he doesn't have Beavan's control (2 BB/9IP), but Poveda's statistical profile continues to point toward big league success. Solid #4 and #5 ML pitchers are probably the toughest guys to identify using minor league track records, but I am convinced that Poveda has a future as a back-of-the-rotation horse. I agree that Beavan is the more intriguing prospect right now, but I am not sure that the gap between the two is as broad as many suggest.
I don't know what to make of Kirkman. Assuming he is controlling a low 90's fastball and a solid breaking ball, you've got to believe that he's got a solid chance of making it as a big league reliever at least.
Rob - Beavan's AA debut was pretty solid. 6 K's and no walks suggest that he did a great job of handling whatever butterflies he might have had. I am anxious to hear the scouting report from the many bloggers who are likely to catch him in his next start.
Thanks, Rodney. I appreciate the link in the LSB Minor League thread.
I'm more optimistic than you on Beavan. I agree that Poveda has a good chance to be a decent 4th or 5th starter, but I think Beavan has a good bet to be a decent #3, with an outside chance of being more than that. Halladay had similar K and BB rates in the minors and he wasn't really a high strikeout guy in the majors until recently. Maybe he's closer to Bob Tewksbury with more K's. Some say Derek Lowe, but his walk rate is lower than that. I don't know, fun to speculate.
What kind of ceiling do you see for Boscan? I'd like to see that K rate drift up over the next couple of months.
I agree that at this point, Beavan is a better prospect than Poveda. On my personal list, Beavan is a Top10 Rangers prospect while Poveda is Top15. Beavan's uptick in velocity coupled with an apparent improvement in his slider and change-up suggest that Beavan is adding to his repertoire and improving his effectiveness. I think that Halladay's improvement at the major league level resulted in increased fastball velocity and the ability to command four pitches. If Beavan can consistently throw a 93-94 MPH 4-seamer and develop a decent slider and change-up, then I agree that he could be a top-of-the-rotation type.
Boscan's K-rate (6.2/9IP) has been disappointing, but everything else has been off-the-charts this year (1.4 BB/9, 5.6 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 0.782 WHIP, 1.12 ERA, .171 BAA). And those numbers would be even better if Hickory's defense weren't so dreadful. There have been several games this year where Boscan had to get 5 or six outs in an inning due to errors in the infield and an inability to turn double plays. Danny Clark told Mike Hindman that Boscan is currently sitting at ~89 MPH with his fastball, though there were spring training reports that had him reaching 92 MPH. Boscan's youth and command suggest that he can add velocity to his fastball, but unless he can consistently pitch in the low 90's I fear that his ceiling is no better than a #4 or #5 type.