Monday Morning Rangers Notes: Pondering Ron Washington
Kevin Millwood delivers a pitch during the top of the sixth inning on Sunday, May 31st.As incredible a ballplayer and as instrumental to the Texas Rangers' success as second baseman Ian Kinsler has been thus far in 2009, the final outcome of his ninth-inning plate appearance in Sunday afternoon's disappointing 5-4 defeat is going to require a serious dose of redemption -- and here's to hoping that it materializes at a very opportune time in New York or Boston sometime this week:
● Did manager Ron Washington make the correct call in lifting southpaw Derek Holland after he had yielded a pair of seventh-inning runs -- runs which unfortunately proved all too critical in deciding the game's outcome -- but rebounded to notch a crisp, perfect eighth inning?
Given the career batting splits of those whom Holland presumably would have faced if Athletics manager Bob Geren had elected to refrain from using a pinch-hitter (and those whom closer Frank Francisco ultimately did face), the answer might well be 'no' ... but concurrently, Holland had already amassed 34 pitches on a sunny, 90-plus-degree afternoon and Washington opted to utilize his best pitcher at the game's highest-leverage juncture over his imperfect rookie hurler, and if Francisco had averted the meatball which Adam Kennedy cranked into the upper home run porch in right field and Texas had finished what had all the appearances of a potential game-winning ninth-inning rally, Washington would have been hailed as a genius.
This subject closely coincides with something I've been pondering quite a lot recently, that being whether we all have allowed the formulation of our deep-seated opinions on Washington to be guided too much by impulse and emotion. My sense is that we haven't and that most of the criticism imposed against Washington has been justified, yet here we sit approximately six weeks after perhaps the most contentiously managed game of his career -- one which comprised a mid-game "strategy" which I still vehemently disagree with, and one which singlehandedly reignited the debate over his job security -- and the Rangers have positioned their skipper as the leader in the clubhouse for American League Manager of the Year honors. It doesn't compute.
How many of these 30 wins never would have materialized if, say, bench coach Jackie Moore had supplanted Washington back when the Rangers were sitting at 4-7 or 6-9? Impossible to say; there is, of course, the notion that the mutual trust which exists between Washington and his players enables him to better serve as a motivating force and squeeze the most out of the Rangers, but how do you begin to quantify that?
Answer: you can't. You can sit behind a keyboard and proclaim that it does or doesn't have an impact in the standings, but the reality is that nobody actually knows. Thus, we're left with little to intently scrutinze beyond the thought processes and outcomes of his tactical decisions -- and talent is ultimately light-years more influential than any ill-conceived ideas or strokes of tactical genius on the part of the manager can ever be.
Much the same way that Ron Washington has probably received too much blame for the past failings of the Rangers, he's probably about to receive too much credit for their newfound success.
● Veteran right-hander Kevin Millwood labored through his second consecutive start on Sunday afternoon, requiring 116 pitches to complete his six innings of work while yielding two earned runs on five hits and two walks and maintaining an average fastball velocity of just 88.6 mph -- marking the second occurrence of an average fastball velocity below 90 mph in his last three starts, a worrisome trend even if his game is not predicated on knee-buckling radar-gun readings.
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been noted as a velocity-averse venue for Pitch f/x technology thus far in 2009, with pitchers regularly registering lower velocity readings in Arlington than their seasonal averages, and perhaps mild fatigue coupled with conservative velocity readings alone account for the unnerving dip; conversely, if this development is emblematic of an impending decline in effectiveness for Millwood (with a less potent fastball resulting in more well-hit line drives and fly balls that will test the resolve of baseball's most improved defense), the Rangers might well be in for some nasty surprises over the next several weeks.
● If it occurred to you that Athletics right-hander Michael Wuertz's inclination towards the slider trended towards the extreme during his 25-pitch relief outing on Sunday afternoon, your observational powers were faultless: 17 of those 25 pitches were indeed sliders, an astonishing eight of which induced swinging strikes -- three each against Kinsler and Andruw Jones, both of whom were utterly baffled by the mid-80s offering with which Wuertz repeatedly painted the strike zone's outer edge (as well as the few inches just beyond its border). Undeniably frustrating as those two pitch sequences were, however, the quality of Wuertz's slider somewhat absolved Kinsler and Jones of blame for their half-hearted hacks of futility.
While Rangers sinkerballer Jason Jennings has quietly evolved into something of a "backwards" pitcher -- that is, working primarily off his slider rather than his fastball -- since being relegated to a bullpen role, Wuertz has employed his late-breaking slider no less than 50 percent of the time in each of his last three major league seasons, and for good reason: according to FanGraphs' pitch-type linear weights data, the pitch is more effective from a run prevention standpoint right now than it ever has been during his six-year major league career, registering at 2.99 runs above average per 100 pitches. It's a weapon which Texas will no doubt encounter again as the summer months approach their zenith, and don't allow his deceptive pitching line (1 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) to lull you into a false sense of security, because Wuertz is a dangerous reliever right now.
Good thing he doesn't pitch for a good team.
16 Comments | in Analysis, Game Recaps, The Season
Reader Comments (16)
When I was watching the 8th/9th I was thinking to myself, "Damn I wish we had this Wuertz kid on our team." We're going to need someone like him at some point this season... (no offense to Madrigal).
Any news on Benoit? Is he definitely out for the entire season?
Shooting for something entirely new, since my sleep patterns are so horrifically out of whack...I last woke up at 1 p.m. Sunday and wasn't remotely tired when I finished writing this a few hours back, so the goal now is to make it another 12 hours and finally begin waking up around 8-9 a.m. with some degree of regularity...
The last update on Benoit came courtesy of Evan Grant back on May 12th:
It doesn't sound definite in the "there's absolutely no possible way he can pitch this season" sense, but the odds of Benoit making it back, much less actually being effective, appear rather bleak...
Should the Rangers risk a roster spot by trying to sign Benoit to a minor league contract instead of a ML contract?
The Rangers will need roster room, and Benoit will not be 2007 Benoit when the season starts. Would another team swoop in and try to get him to pitch to start the season for him?
Honestly - I was much more disappointed with Kinsler's: 1) lacksidasical play at 2nd...dropping a sure out by not looking the ball into his glove and; 2) not hustling on his bloop single to right (that should have been a double).
Ultra-talented but not strong mentally, IMO.
@Kevin: Labrum surgery is not the death sentence it once was, but there's a distinct chance that Benoit will never be the same pitcher again in terms of stuff or command...as far as Benoit's contractual status is concerned, I'm not actually sure if Texas would have to pay the entirety of the remaining balance ($3.5 million at the beginning of the season, so around $2.5 million is left) right now if they were to place him on release waivers, because as far as ownership is concerned there is an obvious incentive in deferring those payments as long as possible...I don't really think he would be snatched up by another team, but I also don't think Texas will be willing to assume the risk entailed by such a gambit unless they're backed into a corner with absolutely no 40-man roster maneuverability, and I kind of doubt that they'll back themselves into that sort of predicament...
@UTB: I've had at least one person whom I respect greatly tell me that Kinsler simply doesn't have good baseball instincts...what exactly that means is up for interpretation, and it's certainly not my intention to disparage Kinsler, because he's a truly amazing talent and arguably the best overall player in the organization right now (a franchise player, if you will), but he has had his share of in-game mental checkouts (e.g. the play at third base last Monday night where he was caught with his hand in the cookie jar trying to feign a mad dash towards the plate and A-Rod beat him back to the bag)...at the same time, I'm really not sure that this notion of yanking him from the game the next time he commits such a gaffe would do anything other than sabotage the Rangers' chances of winning said game...
re Benoit: He is currently on the 60 day DL and in the last year of his contract. I don't see him pitching this year. I believe the team (and all teams) have insurance in case of a severe injury to their players. The $3.5M owed him id s probably offset by an insurance settlement.
re Kinsler: IIWII. He is going to have mental lapses and have a large home/road split. No need fretting over it.
Assuming that Benoit does not pitch again this year, I think Benoit will have multiple teams looking to find a diamond in the rough with him. I expect that he will be offered several minor league contracts with invitations to big league camp (see: Donelly, Turnbow, et al.) I imagine the Rangers will offer him the same. Whether he accepts or not is anyones guess.
I had no problem at all with Washington's move to bring in Frankie in the 9th. Exactly what I would have done. He didn't pitch the day before and there was an off day coming up, so why not have your best pitcher in there with a chance to go for the jugular and get the sweep? The Rangers had just scored in the 7th and 8th to tie the game so why not believe that they were well on there way to adding to that lead in the 9th, or if it came to it the 10th? Conversely, though Holland may have looked like he was getting into a groove, how would you have felt if he'd given up a run in the 9th with Frankie in the bullpen never having been used? What kind of criticism would Wash have faced over that. I had a number of problems with Wash's moves over the first couple of weeks of the season, but I've had little to disagree with him about in the last month or so, aside from putting Blalock in the cleanup spot, (which seems to be nearing its end). The guy may make mistakes but you have to give him credit for learning from them and improving as the season progresses. I think by July we're gonna see this club just start mowing down all comers.
Didn't even think of the insurance angle, Rob (which goes to show you just how many cylinders I'm clicking on right now)...just went digging for some information on that front and unearthed a Jon Paul Morosi article from 2008, which goes into a bit more detail on the insurance process:
Obviously there is little incentive in taking out an insurance policy on a pre-arbitration-eligible player who's banking less than half a million per season, but one would figure a $5.5 million deal would merit some sort of financial protection against injury and if that's indeed the case, Texas won't be on the hook for very much...
I agree with you 100%, Mike E. Reminds me of the incident related by Jim Boulton in "Ball Four" (which I hope you've all read...), where the pitcher throws a 3 and 2 change which is hit out of the park. "Goddam 3 and 2 change "mutters the manager. "But you said a 3 and 2 change is a good pitch" said Jim B. "Sure", replies the manager,"but not this time!" Sure, Joey, it was a "mistake" to bring in Franky for the ninth "this time", but it was surely the percentage move, and to use it to reignite the "Washington is strategically challanged" bandwagon, suggests to me that you might be a little more sleep-deprived than you realise! And please note that I can mix my metaphors with the best of them!!
Hey Joey, Boggs not in the lineup tonight for the Redhawks! Think he might be on a plane for New York?
Oftentimes people only want to talk about the manager when the team is losing. The question of baseball man's development will be a continuing question throughout the season due to his history of questionable decision-making and due to his contract status.
I think it's good to see this topic brought up in good times as well as bad.
What briant said. Losing magnifies RW's deficiencies, winning masks them. In either case, they're there.
"What briant said. Losing magnifies RW's deficiencies, winning masks them. In either case, they're there." - A. Stephens
I hear this a lot from Rangers fans (at least the ones who participate on this forum don't take potshots at RW like they do @ DMN & other blogs). You (A.Stephens) speak of RW like his "deficiencies" are a matter of fact, not opinion, but I'm not so sure.
I see in RW a guy who goes by his gut a lot of times and likes to gamble. Many times his gambles don't pay off, but I think he always has a decent reason for his decisions. And when the gambles do pay off, I rarely see Rangers fans be gracious enough to admit it & give him props.
Everyone seemed to pile on last year, saying that if he was such a great infield instructor, why was our infield defense so bad? But this year I haven't heard anyone - that's NO ONE - give him credit for the defensive turnaround this team has made.
So my opinion is that there's a strong bias against RW in DFW, and that fans just simply don't like him, for whatever reason. I expect that even if he guides this team to a winning record and an AL West pennant in 2009, if Texas loses in the playoffs there will be universal calls for his firing from fans in the area.
@Mike E. & Anthony: Understand that I'm not explicitly criticizing the bullpen move on Sunday...I was intentionally ambiguous because there is an argument to be made both ways, and frankly I could see the logic behind rolling with Francisco there...I used the incident as a platform to re-open the discussion into Washington's virtues (or lack thereof) as an in-game strategist, sure, but I don't think it was necessarily a bad move to go with Frankie (although there are some who disagree).
@JD: Salient point regarding the infield defense, although I suspect that is somewhat bred from the fact that the local press has not exactly illuminated the extent of Washington's role in improving the defense...take, for example, Jeff Miller's spectacular piece on that very subject from a few weeks ago (here) in which basically no credit was apportioned to Washington...now, that obviously doesn't mean that he didn't play an integral role in getting Kinsler and Davis to where they are right now, but when the people with the access to get answers and quotes on that angle aren't even talking about it, the lack of plaudits for Washington in that regard make some sense.
@Mike: Good call. Boggs is in NYC with the Rangers and could be placed on the active roster pending the outcome of Hamilton's visit with Dr. John Preskitt.