Taking Stock Of The Rangers' Bullpen
Closer Frank Francisco celebrates with catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia on Tuesday, April 21st.Really good major league bullpens like those fielded by the Yankees, Phillies, Angels, and Dodgers in 2008 are worth as many as 20 wins per year (as indicated here). In contrast, bad bullpens like those of the 2008 Indians, Rangers, and Padres contribute fewer than ten wins per season.
The ten-game difference between a good bullpen and a bad one is enough to decide a playoff race. In fact, it can be argued that three division championships in 2008 were decided by bullpens:
| Teams |
Game Differential |
Bullpen Differential |
| Phillies over Mets |
3 games |
29 Win Shares (~10 games) |
| Dodgers over Diamondbacks |
2 games |
18 Win Shares (~6 games) |
| White Sox over Twins |
1 game |
6 Win Shares (~2 games) |
RANGERS BULLPEN -- 2009
The cumulative ERA for the Rangers' bullpen thus far in 2009 is 5.07. Teams have hit .274/.359/.445 against the relievers from Arlington. Take away Frankie Francisco and the numbers are among the worst in baseball (5.91 ERA, .292/.371/.484). The Rangers' least effective relievers (Luis Mendoza, Josh Rupe, and Scott Feldman) are now starting at Triple-A Oklahoma City or Arlington, but there is still work to do to get the relief corps ready for a playoff run. A couple of more personnel moves and changing the roles of a few of the current relievers might be all that is needed to convert a team weakness into a strength.
CLOSER
Great bullpens feature dominant closers. According to Pitch f/x, Francisco is getting much better break on his curveball this year which is allowing him to mix two quality off-speed pitches with his mid-90s fastball. The results have been outstanding (16.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 4 BB, 16 K). If he remains healthy, Francisco provides the Rangers with the most vital (and most difficult to find) element of a strong bullpen.
7TH/8TH INNING
C.J. Wilson, Jason Jennings, and Darren O'Day are the seventh-/eighth-inning guys now, but only Wilson seems suited for the role and even he is probably not an ideal guy for late and close situations (an article is in the works). Among the remaining relievers, Warner Madrigal appears to be the best candidate for taking on a prominent, late-inning role with the team. If the Rangers are still contending in August and Madrigal or someone else has not locked down the job, it is possible that a candidate may emerge from the farm (see wild cards below).
Warner Madrigal - Madrigal's first outing of 2009 was forgettable (1.2 IP, 0 H, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 4 ER). Since then, he's been very good in four major league games (3 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0 ER) and 12 Triple-A games (16.1 IP, 9 H, 7 BB, 16 SO). Madrigal's two-pitch repertoire includes a 93-ish fastball and 85-ish slider that have Pitch f/x profiles that are similar to Carlos Marmol and J.J. Putz. Provided he can maintain the improved control that he has shown for the past couple of weeks, Madrigal is the type of power pitcher that teams seek to deal with emergency situations prior to the ninth inning.
C.J. Wilson – After a slow start, Wilson has gone a month without allowing a run and he now ranks third in the bullpen with a 3.38 ERA. His peripherals still bear the scars of his early-season troubles (5.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.61 WHIP), though it is worth noting that his walk rate (3.00 BB/9), WHIP (1.22) and GO/AO (2.8) have been excellent in his last ten games. Wilson is very good against lefties (.263/.364/.263), so inserting him in situations that match him against left-handed hitters will increase his productivity.
SPECIALISTS
Darren O'Day – O'Day has been cast as a late-inning reliever out of necessity and his early-season success. The sidewinder currently sports the bullpen's second-best ERA (1.20) with impressive peripherals (8.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 1.07 WHIP) that belie his ordinary stuff (mid-80s fastball and upper-70s slider). O'Day has been very good versus right-handers (.565 OPS) and marginal against left-handers (.778 OPS). If used against a right-hander or two in the late innings or to get through a right-handed heavy portion of the line-up in the fifth, sixth or seventh innings when teams are unlikely to pinch-hit, O'Day could continue to be an extremely effective pitcher out of the bullpen.
A.J Murray or Mike Hinckley – Eddie Guardado is currently the second lefty in the Rangers' bullpen, but his numbers in 18 at-bats against left-handed hitters (.500/.571/.889) reveal that he is anything but a LOOGY (left-handed one-out guy). Replacing Guardado with someone who can pitch against tough left-handers might be the single most effective way to improve the Rangers' bullpen.
Left-hander A.J. Murray has used 23 innings at Double-A Frisco and Oklahoma City to show that his new arm slot is working. Combining an 84-88 mph fastball with a mid-70s curveball and a change-up, Murray has a 1.17 ERA and 2.47 GO/AO. Most importantly, he has held left-handed batters to a .190 batting average in 2009.
Another left-hander, the recently signed Mike Hinckley, is biding his time in the RedHawks' bullpen as he waits to show that the 0.00 ERA he posted in 13.2 innings out of the Nationals' bullpen in 2008 with nine strikeouts and three walks is more indicative of his abilities than the 4.66 ERA with 11 walks and only three strikeouts that he posted in 9.2 innings this year. Hinckley's combination of a 90 mph fastball and mid-70s curveball has been particularly effective against major league left-handers, as witnessed by the .161/.257/.194 line that they've posted against him in 36 plate appearances.
LONG RELIEVER
Jason Jennings – Jennings was initially cast in this role but problems in the back of the bullpen led him to be used in more late-inning situations. Because the Rangers are unwilling to pitch him on consecutive days and because the team is likely to need spot starts to accommodate injuries in the rotation, Jennings' greatest value to the team is likely to be in the long-relief role. In 14 mostly multi-inning appearances, Jennings has posted a 3.98 ERA behind the strength of an outstanding slider.
Dustin Nippert – Nippert is eligible to return to action in approximately three weeks after spending the entire season on the disabled list. He has three quality pitches (mid-90s fastball, hard curveball and change-up) that have yet to translate at the major league level (6.42 career ERA with opponent OPS of .835). Nippert is out of options and must be added to the major league roster unless the team is willing to risk losing him via waivers. Given his upside, it is worth using the tall right-hander as the last man out of the bullpen and then replacing him with Hunter or Moscoso if he proves to be ineffective.
WILD CARDS
Derek Holland - For the sake of his development, it is probably best for Holland to be in the Rangers' rotation for much of the remainder of the 2009 season. However, if the Rangers can keep five other starters healthy and productive this year, Holland could move into the seventh-/eighth-inning role and make the back of the bullpen a force while allowing C.J. Wilson to take on the LOOGY role.
Neftali Feliz, Guillermo Moscoso, and Pedro Strop – Remember David Price in '08? Adam Wainwright in '06? Frankie Rodriguez in '02? Rookies with great stuff occasionally have profound effects on playoff runs while pitching out of the bullpen. In addition to Holland, the Rangers have three young pitchers with outstanding fastballs that they can use to domiinate opposing hitters. Assuming they continue to develop, any one of Feliz, Moscoso, or Strop could turn a late-season call-up into a post-season to remember.
9 Comments | in Analysis, The Season
Reader Comments (9)
This is what awesome looks like. Great stuff.
David, great stuff here. Don't you think O'Day has been exceptional against some extremely tough righties? He's waltzed through some pretty tough 3-4-5 line-ups, right? Those hitters are the ones getting the big money who will never be pinch hit for, even late in games. I agree he's been much less effective against lefties, but if the line-up is situated just right, O'Day is quite a weapon in the 8th inning -- even if he has to pitch carefully to the occasional mashing southpaw. Wash has been good so far at figuring out how to mix O'Day and CJ in there to protect some precarious leads.
I've been thinking Eddie was probably done, but he's been pretty decent the past few appearances. He's just not the right guy, however, for late and close situations, and Murray or Hinckley probably need to keep their bags packed for a call-up pretty quickly.
I think Mad Dog is probably not going to get another shot at the 8th inning right now -- he's really struggled this yr in the show. Besides, Nippert's call-up is not too far away -- and Mads has options -- so I think he becomes the #1 candidate for demotion if Benson goes away soon -- probably as soon as tomorrow if they call up a spot starter for the double header. Nippert and Padilla both require someone to be demoted when they return -- so Benson and Mad Dog are probably not long for Arlington. If Harrison turns up lame, however, one of these guys might get a reprieve.
The Rangers have been very fortunate to get a whole lot of quality starts from their rotation, and with this good fortune, Wash has been able to be choosy about who trots out of the bullpen for the last couple of innings. To the relief corps' credit, much of the 13-2 stretch was completed without FF anywhere to be seen.
It will be interesting to see how the Rangers respond to an extended period of so-so starting pitching -- the Yanks seem to have exposed our middle relief without too much difficulty. You present some good food for thought on how to shore things while we still have a nice little lead in the standings to protect.
Good analysis David.
Madrigal - What is frustrating about him is that he numbers appear to have regressed from last year. I think he needs more time in AAA to work on a strikeout pitch.
Nippert - I don't like him in long relief. I would like to see him used in a "fireman" type of situation.
I think you forgot about Willie Eyrie. He has been solid in the past and looked like one of the best guys in pen earlier this year before going on DL. Reports have him up and throwing and should be ready sometime in June. I think he will be a better longman option than either Nippert or Jennings after All-Star Break.
I agree about O'Day, submariners tend to have short shelf lives if not used carefully and his stuff is much more effective against righties. If the rookie options don't blossom convincingly the most likely trade for the Rangers this summer will involve a late inning righty.
I think it's safe to say that the Benson experiment needs to end. I'm all for throwing Nippert into his role and perhaps moving him around if he performs well (his stuff would work in a setup role if he could be consistent with his command). If Nippert fails too, Mike Ballard could make a good long man.
On an unrelated note, I was one of the people that kept saying that Chris Davis should be allowed to work out his troubles in Arlington. After seeing him explode with frustration, shattering his bat after yet another strikeout, I think something must be done. I don't know who I'd promote, but this is only getting worse. I think I'd put Davis back in Frisco, Smoak in OKC, and Boggs to Arlington. That smash of the bat has me more worried than any of the strikeouts.
Yeah I think Moscoso and Murray are probably the two guys that end up helping out the most. I think Feliz's trajectory towards Arlington is starting to slow a little with injuries and slight control issues. He may get called up by the end of the year, but I really don't want to see him up here if he's not ready yet. He doesn't seem to have quite the same mental makeup as Holland so may not adjust as well immediately.
Dude in Afghanistan -
Your comments on O'Day are spot on. When used properly, he seems capable of handling the pressure of late game situations and under the right circumstances (Francisco unavailable and a series of tough right-handers coming up), I could easily see him being used successfully in a save situation.
Guardado's May ERA is under 2, but his usage has him on a pace to pitch 30 or so innings in 2009. I have to believe that an effective LOOGY would be far more valuable to the team than a guy who is only being used in non-critical situations.
I agree that Madrigal does not deserve the 8th inning role right now, but I think that he is the guy with the stuff that is best suited for high leverage situations. Though I am not prepared to bestow Frankie-ness upon him, I think it is worth pointing out that Francisco spent time in AAA early last year and was ultimately able to pitch his way into the closer role. I think that Madrgal has that type of ability. Perhaps the single greatest obstacle to Madrigal working his way up the bullpen food chain is that he is the one non-entrenched guy who can be optioned to the minors. Thus he is likely to be yo-yo'd to accommodate roster emergencies (like Hunter's spot start on friday).
Rob M
Madrigal's minor league numbers from this year and last year look very similar, thus I don't think that his stuff has regressed. I suspect that his low k-rate is merely due to the very small sample size. My personal Madrigal theory is that he hates sitting in the dugout. In his two years as a Ranger, he has been extremely effective at getting through an inning when he comes in from the bullpen and dismal when he has to pitch in more than one inning.
Sean
I started to list Eyre alongside Nippert but decided that I just didn't see how he could be an asset to the bullpen. Hopefully, he will return from injury and be effective out of the pen.
Mike
Like you, I have high hopes for Moscoso. He seems to be making very nice progress in Frisco and you would think he is nearing the front of the line to get a shot in the Rangers' bullpen. I am also bullish on Mike Hinckley. Hinckley was ranked as high as the #29 prospect in baseball by BA prior to the 2005 season. He fizzled out as a starter at the higher levels of the minors, but he has been extremely good since converting to a reliever last year. If his control returns, he could be a real asset in the Rangers bullpen.
Good stuff man... I love this kind of stuff!!!